I'm gonna tell you how it's gonna be. "Not Fade Away"-The Rolling Stones

Does it predict winners?

Predicts home win: AUC 0.65 (team entering with the better value wins 62% of games)

See the game-by-game scatter on the Predictor page →

Team Distribution

Season-to-date value for every team, with a density curve.

min 45.9% max 56.7% mean 50.0% std 2.5% (n=364)

Team Rankings

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# Team Opponents' Opponents' Win Percentage (OOWP) z Pctl GP
1 Auburn 56.7% +2.65 100 38
2 Alabama 56.6% +2.64 100 37
3 Tennessee 56.4% +2.55 99 38
4 Purdue 56.4% +2.53 99 36
5 Texas A&M 56.2% +2.47 99 34
6 Michigan State 55.9% +2.33 99 37
7 Illinois 55.8% +2.32 98 35
8 Arkansas 55.7% +2.28 98 36
9 Oregon 55.6% +2.25 98 35
10 Houston 55.6% +2.21 98 40
11 Ohio State 55.5% +2.20 97 32
12 Kentucky 55.5% +2.18 97 36
13 Michigan 55.4% +2.15 97 37
14 Florida 55.3% +2.12 96 40
15 Wisconsin 55.2% +2.08 96 37
16 Mississippi State 55.1% +2.02 96 34
17 Kansas 55.1% +2.02 96 34
18 Baylor 55.0% +1.97 95 34
19 Ole Miss 55.0% +1.97 95 36
20 Rutgers 54.9% +1.96 95 32
21 Arizona 54.9% +1.95 94 37
22 Vanderbilt 54.9% +1.94 94 33
23 Oklahoma 54.8% +1.91 94 34
24 Indiana 54.8% +1.90 94 32
25 LSU 54.7% +1.87 93 32
26 South Carolina 54.6% +1.85 93 32
27 Texas 54.5% +1.80 93 35
28 Washington 54.5% +1.80 93 30
29 Northwestern 54.5% +1.78 92 33
30 Duke 54.5% +1.78 92 39
31 UCLA 54.4% +1.77 92 34
32 Missouri 54.4% +1.76 91 34
33 Iowa State 54.4% +1.75 91 35
34 North Carolina 54.3% +1.72 91 37
35 Maryland 54.2% +1.67 91 36
36 Arizona State 54.1% +1.64 90 33
37 Penn State 54.0% +1.60 90 31
38 Georgia 54.0% +1.58 90 33
39 Oklahoma State 53.9% +1.57 90 35
40 Creighton 53.9% +1.56 89 36
41 BYU 53.9% +1.56 89 36
42 Iowa 53.9% +1.55 89 33
43 TCU 53.9% +1.53 88 32
44 UCF 53.8% +1.51 88 37
45 Nebraska 53.7% +1.49 88 35
46 Louisville 53.7% +1.48 88 35
47 Minnesota 53.7% +1.47 87 32
48 Colorado 53.5% +1.41 87 35
49 USC 53.4% +1.37 87 35
50 Wake Forest 53.4% +1.35 87 32
51 Gonzaga 53.4% +1.35 86 35
52 Utah 53.4% +1.34 86 33
53 Texas Tech 53.3% +1.31 86 37
54 West Virginia 53.2% +1.28 85 32
55 Saint Mary's 53.2% +1.26 85 34
56 Kansas State 53.1% +1.25 85 33
57 Clemson 53.1% +1.24 85 34
58 San Diego State 53.1% +1.24 84 30
59 Marquette 53.1% +1.22 84 34
60 Memphis 53.0% +1.20 84 35
61 Pittsburgh 52.9% +1.15 83 32
62 UConn 52.8% +1.12 83 35
63 Cincinnati 52.8% +1.12 83 35
64 St. John's 52.7% +1.08 83 36
65 Colorado State 52.6% +1.05 82 36
66 Notre Dame 52.4% +0.97 82 33
67 Virginia Tech 52.3% +0.92 82 32
68 California 52.2% +0.90 82 33
69 UNLV 52.2% +0.89 81 33
70 Dayton 52.2% +0.89 81 33
71 New Mexico 52.2% +0.89 81 34
72 Florida State 52.2% +0.87 80 32
73 NC State 52.2% +0.86 80 31
74 Butler 52.2% +0.86 80 35
75 SMU 52.1% +0.82 80 35
76 Virginia 52.1% +0.82 79 32
77 Georgia Tech 52.0% +0.80 79 34
78 Syracuse 52.0% +0.79 79 33
79 Xavier 51.9% +0.77 79 34
80 Miami 51.8% +0.72 78 31
81 Drake 51.8% +0.72 78 33
82 Santa Clara 51.8% +0.71 78 34
83 Boise State 51.8% +0.71 77 36
84 Saint Louis 51.7% +0.66 77 32
85 Utah State 51.6% +0.65 77 33
86 Western Kentucky 51.5% +0.60 77 30
87 Stanford 51.5% +0.59 76 35
88 Liberty 51.4% +0.58 76 32
89 Nevada 51.4% +0.58 76 33
90 George Mason 51.4% +0.57 75 35
91 Villanova 51.4% +0.57 75 36
92 Belmont 51.4% +0.56 75 32
93 Oregon State 51.4% +0.54 75 32
94 Yale 51.4% +0.54 74 29
95 Sam Houston 51.3% +0.52 74 29
96 Boston College 51.3% +0.52 74 31
97 VCU 51.3% +0.50 74 34
98 Loyola Chicago 51.2% +0.50 73 36
99 St. Bonaventure 51.2% +0.48 73 33
100 Bradley 51.1% +0.45 73 36
101 Middle Tennessee 51.1% +0.44 72 32
102 San Francisco 51.0% +0.41 72 34
103 Murray State 51.0% +0.41 72 32
104 UIC 51.0% +0.40 72 29
105 Massachusetts 51.0% +0.39 71 31
106 Wichita State 51.0% +0.39 71 33
107 North Texas 51.0% +0.38 71 34
108 Grand Canyon 50.9% +0.38 71 33
109 Kennesaw State 50.9% +0.37 70 30
110 Seton Hall 50.9% +0.37 70 32
111 Georgetown 50.9% +0.36 70 34
112 Providence 50.9% +0.35 69 32
113 DePaul 50.8% +0.32 69 34
114 McNeese 50.7% +0.29 69 33
115 Evansville 50.7% +0.28 69 31
116 Troy 50.7% +0.27 68 32
117 Louisiana Tech 50.6% +0.25 68 29
118 Davidson 50.6% +0.25 68 32
119 Northern Iowa 50.5% +0.22 67 32
120 San José State 50.5% +0.20 67 33
121 Duquesne 50.5% +0.20 67 31
122 Wyoming 50.4% +0.16 67 31
123 New Mexico State 50.4% +0.16 66 29
124 Saint Joseph's 50.4% +0.15 66 35
125 La Salle 50.4% +0.15 66 32
126 Florida Atlantic 50.4% +0.15 66 33
127 Rhode Island 50.4% +0.14 65 30
128 Oakland 50.3% +0.14 65 33
129 Jacksonville State 50.3% +0.13 65 33
130 Washington State 50.3% +0.13 64 34
131 Tarleton State 50.3% +0.12 64 29
132 Arkansas State 50.3% +0.12 64 35
133 Kent State 50.3% +0.11 64 34
134 Fresno State 50.3% +0.11 63 32
135 UTSA 50.2% +0.10 63 29
136 Chattanooga 50.2% +0.09 63 36
137 Richmond 50.2% +0.09 63 30
138 Indiana State 50.2% +0.08 62 30
139 Central Michigan 50.2% +0.08 62 27
140 Brown 50.2% +0.08 62 26
141 George Washington 50.2% +0.07 61 33
142 Temple 50.1% +0.04 61 31
143 Portland 50.1% +0.04 61 30
144 UTEP 50.1% +0.03 61 30
145 UC San Diego 50.1% +0.02 60 33
146 Illinois State 50.0% +0.02 60 35
147 Valparaiso 50.0% +0.02 60 32
148 Southern Illinois 50.0% +0.02 60 31
149 South Dakota State 50.0% +0.02 59 29
150 Robert Morris 50.0% +0.01 59 34
151 Fordham 50.0% -0.01 59 32
152 UC Irvine 50.0% -0.02 58 38
153 Pepperdine 49.9% -0.04 58 34
154 Pacific 49.9% -0.04 58 31
155 Abilene Christian 49.9% -0.05 58 29
156 Radford 49.8% -0.07 57 31
157 Lipscomb 49.8% -0.07 57 33
158 Princeton 49.8% -0.07 57 28
159 Georgia State 49.8% -0.08 56 32
160 UAB 49.8% -0.09 56 36
161 East Carolina 49.8% -0.09 56 31
162 Miami (OH) 49.7% -0.10 56 32
163 Lamar 49.7% -0.10 55 30
164 Tulane 49.7% -0.11 55 32
165 South Florida 49.7% -0.12 55 31
166 High Point 49.7% -0.12 55 33
167 Charlotte 49.7% -0.13 54 32
168 Missouri State 49.6% -0.14 54 30
169 Towson 49.6% -0.14 54 32
170 Cal Poly 49.6% -0.15 53 34
171 Toledo 49.6% -0.15 53 32
172 Nicholls 49.6% -0.17 53 30
173 Loyola Marymount 49.5% -0.19 53 31
174 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 49.5% -0.19 52 30
175 Youngstown State 49.5% -0.19 52 32
176 Charleston 49.5% -0.19 52 32
177 Air Force 49.5% -0.20 52 32
178 California Baptist 49.5% -0.21 51 32
179 Furman 49.5% -0.21 51 32
180 Monmouth 49.4% -0.22 51 33
181 Florida International 49.4% -0.23 50 31
182 Western Carolina 49.4% -0.24 50 27
183 Milwaukee 49.4% -0.24 50 30
184 South Alabama 49.4% -0.25 50 30
185 UNC Asheville 49.3% -0.26 49 28
186 UNC Wilmington 49.3% -0.29 49 33
187 UT Arlington 49.3% -0.29 49 29
188 Ohio 49.2% -0.30 48 31
189 Tulsa 49.2% -0.30 48 31
190 Wright State 49.2% -0.30 48 31
191 Rice 49.2% -0.30 48 31
192 Hawai'i 49.2% -0.30 47 29
193 Akron 49.2% -0.31 47 33
194 Cleveland State 49.2% -0.31 47 33
195 UNC Greensboro 49.2% -0.31 47 29
196 New Orleans 49.2% -0.32 46 31
197 Jackson State 49.2% -0.32 46 34
198 Cal State Northridge 49.2% -0.33 46 31
199 Texas State 49.2% -0.33 45 30
200 Cornell 49.1% -0.34 45 27
201 Hofstra 49.1% -0.34 45 31
202 Utah Valley 49.1% -0.34 45 32
203 UC Riverside 49.1% -0.34 44 32
204 Northern Kentucky 49.1% -0.35 44 31
205 Marshall 49.1% -0.36 44 31
206 Merrimack 49.1% -0.36 44 33
207 Seattle U 49.1% -0.37 43 30
208 App State 49.0% -0.39 43 29
209 Houston Christian 49.0% -0.39 43 30
210 UT Rio Grande Valley 49.0% -0.40 42 27
211 Old Dominion 49.0% -0.40 42 33
212 San Diego 49.0% -0.40 42 32
213 Norfolk State 49.0% -0.40 42 32
214 Presbyterian 49.0% -0.41 41 30
215 James Madison 49.0% -0.41 41 30
216 Bucknell 48.9% -0.43 41 33
217 Louisiana 48.9% -0.43 40 32
218 Northwestern State 48.9% -0.44 40 30
219 Drexel 48.9% -0.44 40 32
220 SE Louisiana 48.8% -0.46 40 30
221 St. Thomas-Minnesota 48.8% -0.46 39 31
222 UC Santa Barbara 48.8% -0.47 39 32
223 Long Beach State 48.8% -0.48 39 30
224 Buffalo 48.8% -0.48 39 29
225 Campbell 48.8% -0.48 38 30
226 North Florida 48.8% -0.48 38 30
227 Austin Peay 48.8% -0.49 38 31
228 Charleston Southern 48.8% -0.49 37 30
229 East Tennessee State 48.7% -0.52 37 30
230 Ball State 48.7% -0.52 37 28
231 Purdue Fort Wayne 48.7% -0.52 37 30
232 Wofford 48.7% -0.53 36 33
233 Hampton 48.7% -0.53 36 30
234 North Dakota 48.6% -0.53 36 30
235 Omaha 48.6% -0.54 36 33
236 American University 48.6% -0.56 35 33
237 Oral Roberts 48.6% -0.56 35 26
238 Southern 48.6% -0.56 35 29
239 Northern Illinois 48.6% -0.57 34 28
240 Colgate 48.5% -0.57 34 32
241 Cal State Fullerton 48.5% -0.57 34 30
242 Bethune-Cookman 48.5% -0.58 34 33
243 Elon 48.5% -0.58 33 31
244 North Alabama 48.5% -0.58 33 33
245 North Dakota State 48.5% -0.58 33 29
246 Georgia Southern 48.5% -0.59 33 32
247 Montana State 48.5% -0.60 32 32
248 Iona 48.5% -0.61 32 34
249 Maine 48.4% -0.61 32 32
250 SIU Edwardsville 48.4% -0.62 31 31
251 VMI 48.4% -0.62 31 30
252 Jacksonville 48.4% -0.62 31 31
253 Rider 48.4% -0.62 31 33
254 Saint Peter's 48.4% -0.63 30 27
255 Mercer 48.4% -0.63 30 31
256 Northeastern 48.4% -0.64 30 32
257 Southern Miss 48.4% -0.64 29 31
258 Montana 48.4% -0.65 29 32
259 UC Davis 48.3% -0.65 29 30
260 William & Mary 48.3% -0.67 29 30
261 Eastern Kentucky 48.3% -0.67 28 30
262 Gardner-Webb 48.3% -0.68 28 31
263 Detroit Mercy 48.3% -0.68 28 31
264 Alcorn State 48.3% -0.68 28 31
265 Samford 48.3% -0.69 27 31
266 Florida Gulf Coast 48.3% -0.69 27 33
267 Stetson 48.2% -0.69 27 30
268 Eastern Illinois 48.2% -0.70 26 28
269 Southern Utah 48.2% -0.70 26 28
270 Alabama State 48.2% -0.72 26 35
271 Longwood 48.2% -0.72 26 29
272 Fairleigh Dickinson 48.2% -0.72 25 30
273 Idaho State 48.2% -0.73 25 27
274 Harvard 48.1% -0.73 25 26
275 The Citadel 48.1% -0.74 25 26
276 South Carolina State 48.1% -0.74 24 30
277 Eastern Michigan 48.1% -0.75 24 31
278 Florida A&M 48.1% -0.76 24 29
279 East Texas A&M 48.1% -0.76 23 31
280 Winthrop 48.1% -0.76 23 31
281 Coastal Carolina 48.1% -0.77 23 30
282 South Carolina Upstate 48.0% -0.78 23 29
283 North Carolina A&T 48.0% -0.79 22 31
284 Bryant 48.0% -0.79 22 33
285 Vermont 48.0% -0.80 22 31
286 Bowling Green 48.0% -0.80 21 30
287 Western Michigan 48.0% -0.80 21 31
288 Eastern Washington 48.0% -0.81 21 30
289 Mount St. Mary's 47.9% -0.82 21 35
290 Stephen F. Austin 47.9% -0.84 20 28
291 Green Bay 47.9% -0.85 20 31
292 Maryland Eastern Shore 47.8% -0.85 20 27
293 Little Rock 47.8% -0.86 20 31
294 Texas Southern 47.8% -0.86 19 29
295 Delaware 47.8% -0.87 19 34
296 Stony Brook 47.8% -0.88 19 31
297 Utah Tech 47.8% -0.88 18 31
298 Marist 47.7% -0.91 18 30
299 Dartmouth 47.7% -0.91 18 26
300 Pennsylvania 47.7% -0.91 18 27
301 Queens University 47.7% -0.92 17 33
302 Mississippi Valley State 47.6% -0.94 17 29
303 Grambling 47.6% -0.94 17 31
304 Howard 47.6% -0.95 17 28
305 Manhattan 47.5% -0.97 16 30
306 Niagara 47.5% -0.98 16 30
307 Holy Cross 47.5% -0.98 16 30
308 UL Monroe 47.5% -0.98 15 30
309 Northern Colorado 47.5% -0.99 15 32
310 Denver 47.5% -0.99 15 29
311 Canisius 47.5% -1.01 15 31
312 Cal State Bakersfield 47.4% -1.02 14 31
313 Siena 47.4% -1.02 14 32
314 Lindenwood 47.4% -1.02 14 30
315 Weber State 47.4% -1.03 13 31
316 UAlbany 47.4% -1.03 13 31
317 Idaho 47.4% -1.03 13 31
318 Portland State 47.4% -1.05 13 29
319 West Georgia 47.3% -1.05 12 30
320 Kansas City 47.3% -1.05 12 29
321 Prairie View A&M 47.3% -1.05 12 31
322 IU Indianapolis 47.3% -1.06 12 29
323 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 47.3% -1.06 11 29
324 Stonehill 47.3% -1.06 11 30
325 Coppin State 47.3% -1.07 11 29
326 North Carolina Central 47.3% -1.07 10 29
327 South Dakota 47.3% -1.08 10 30
328 Delaware State 47.3% -1.08 10 26
329 Central Arkansas 47.3% -1.08 10 31
330 Lehigh 47.2% -1.10 9 28
331 Southeast Missouri State 47.2% -1.11 9 30
332 Columbia 47.2% -1.12 9 25
333 Long Island University 47.2% -1.12 9 31
334 Bellarmine 47.1% -1.13 8 29
335 Tennessee State 47.1% -1.13 8 30
336 Central Connecticut 47.1% -1.14 8 30
337 Incarnate Word 47.1% -1.15 7 32
338 Quinnipiac 47.1% -1.16 7 32
339 Morehead State 47.1% -1.16 7 29
340 Tennessee Tech 46.9% -1.21 7 30
341 New Hampshire 46.9% -1.21 6 30
342 Mercyhurst 46.9% -1.23 6 28
343 Saint Francis 46.9% -1.24 6 31
344 UMass Lowell 46.9% -1.24 6 29
345 Fairfield 46.9% -1.25 5 31
346 Navy 46.7% -1.29 5 33
347 Chicago State 46.7% -1.30 5 32
348 Morgan State 46.7% -1.31 4 28
349 Sacred Heart 46.6% -1.36 4 32
350 Lafayette 46.5% -1.37 4 32
351 Boston University 46.5% -1.37 4 31
352 Army 46.5% -1.38 3 31
353 Alabama A&M 46.5% -1.38 3 29
354 Wagner 46.4% -1.41 3 26
355 UT Martin 46.4% -1.41 2 30
356 Sacramento State 46.3% -1.49 2 29
357 Le Moyne 46.2% -1.52 2 30
358 NJIT 46.2% -1.52 2 30
359 Western Illinois 46.2% -1.53 1 28
360 Northern Arizona 46.1% -1.53 1 30
361 UMBC 46.1% -1.55 1 29
362 Loyola Maryland 46.1% -1.55 1 30
363 Southern Indiana 46.1% -1.55 0 28
364 Binghamton 45.9% -1.61 0 29