What have I done? "Police On My Back" - The Clash

Does it predict winners?

Predicts home win: AUC 0.70 (team entering with the better value wins 64% of games)

See the game-by-game scatter on the Predictor page →

Team Distribution

Season-to-date value for every team, with a density curve.

min 79.5 max 125.1 mean 105.9 std 6.3 (n=364)

Team Rankings

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# Team Offensive Efficiency z Pctl GP
1 Duke 125.1 +3.04 100 39
2 Gonzaga 121.8 +2.51 100 35
3 High Point 120.5 +2.31 99 33
4 Florida 120.2 +2.27 99 40
5 Auburn 119.8 +2.20 99 38
6 Missouri 119.4 +2.14 99 34
7 Texas Tech 119.4 +2.13 98 37
8 North Dakota State 118.9 +2.06 98 29
9 Alabama 118.8 +2.04 98 37
10 Utah State 117.6 +1.85 98 33
11 St. Thomas-Minnesota 117.4 +1.82 97 31
12 UConn 117.3 +1.80 97 35
13 BYU 117.0 +1.76 97 35
14 Yale 116.8 +1.73 96 29
15 Purdue 116.7 +1.70 96 36
16 Arizona 116.5 +1.68 96 37
17 Wisconsin 116.4 +1.65 96 37
18 Kentucky 116.2 +1.63 95 36
19 SMU 116.0 +1.59 95 35
20 Houston 116.0 +1.59 95 40
21 Santa Clara 116.0 +1.59 94 34
22 UC San Diego 115.9 +1.59 94 33
23 Cornell 115.9 +1.57 94 27
24 Villanova 115.7 +1.55 94 36
25 Iowa 115.5 +1.52 93 33
26 UAB 115.4 +1.50 93 36
27 Chattanooga 115.2 +1.46 93 36
28 Oregon State 115.0 +1.45 93 32
29 Akron 115.0 +1.44 92 33
30 Maryland 114.8 +1.40 92 36
31 VCU 114.7 +1.39 92 34
32 Illinois 114.6 +1.38 91 35
33 Clemson 114.5 +1.36 91 34
34 Tennessee 114.4 +1.34 91 38
35 UNC Wilmington 114.4 +1.34 91 33
36 Iowa State 114.4 +1.34 90 35
37 North Alabama 114.3 +1.33 90 33
38 Northern Colorado 114.1 +1.30 90 32
39 Lipscomb 114.1 +1.30 90 33
40 Saint Mary's 113.8 +1.25 89 34
41 McNeese 113.5 +1.21 89 33
42 Boise State 113.5 +1.20 89 36
43 Texas 113.5 +1.20 88 35
44 Illinois State 113.5 +1.20 88 35
45 North Carolina 113.4 +1.19 88 37
46 Samford 113.2 +1.15 88 31
47 Louisville 113.1 +1.14 87 35
48 South Dakota State 112.8 +1.09 87 29
49 Wofford 112.8 +1.09 87 33
50 Bradley 112.8 +1.09 87 36
51 Mississippi State 112.8 +1.08 86 34
52 Baylor 112.7 +1.08 86 34
53 Pittsburgh 112.6 +1.05 86 32
54 Dayton 112.5 +1.05 85 33
55 Vanderbilt 112.5 +1.05 85 33
56 Colorado State 112.4 +1.03 85 36
57 South Dakota 112.4 +1.03 85 30
58 Drake 112.4 +1.02 84 33
59 Ohio State 112.2 +0.99 84 32
60 Michigan State 112.1 +0.97 84 37
61 Oklahoma 111.9 +0.95 83 34
62 UCLA 111.9 +0.94 83 34
63 Marquette 111.7 +0.92 83 34
64 Omaha 111.6 +0.89 83 33
65 Purdue Fort Wayne 111.6 +0.89 82 30
66 Belmont 111.5 +0.88 82 32
67 Xavier 111.5 +0.88 82 34
68 Montana 111.3 +0.85 82 32
69 Florida Atlantic 111.3 +0.85 81 33
70 Toledo 111.2 +0.83 81 32
71 UNC Asheville 111.2 +0.83 81 28
72 Penn State 111.1 +0.81 80 31
73 Wright State 111.0 +0.81 80 31
74 Radford 111.0 +0.80 80 31
75 Nevada 111.0 +0.80 80 33
76 Eastern Kentucky 110.9 +0.79 79 30
77 Furman 110.9 +0.79 79 32
78 Arkansas State 110.8 +0.77 79 35
79 Ole Miss 110.7 +0.76 79 36
80 Memphis 110.7 +0.76 78 35
81 Oregon 110.7 +0.75 78 35
82 Creighton 110.7 +0.75 78 36
83 North Texas 110.6 +0.74 77 34
84 Northern Iowa 110.6 +0.74 77 32
85 Miami (OH) 110.6 +0.74 77 32
86 Liberty 110.5 +0.72 77 32
87 Butler 110.3 +0.69 76 35
88 St. John's 110.2 +0.67 76 36
89 UC Santa Barbara 110.2 +0.67 76 32
90 North Florida 110.1 +0.66 75 30
91 Washington State 110.1 +0.66 75 34
92 Winthrop 110.1 +0.66 75 31
93 USC 110.1 +0.66 75 35
94 Ohio 110.1 +0.65 74 31
95 Georgia 109.9 +0.64 74 33
96 San Francisco 109.9 +0.62 74 34
97 James Madison 109.8 +0.61 74 29
98 Temple 109.7 +0.60 73 31
99 Stanford 109.7 +0.60 73 35
100 Milwaukee 109.7 +0.60 73 30
101 Manhattan 109.7 +0.59 72 30
102 Florida Gulf Coast 109.6 +0.58 72 33
103 East Tennessee State 109.6 +0.58 72 30
104 IU Indianapolis 109.5 +0.57 72 29
105 UNC Greensboro 109.5 +0.57 71 29
106 Michigan 109.5 +0.57 71 37
107 Delaware 109.4 +0.56 71 34
108 Texas State 109.4 +0.55 71 30
109 Norfolk State 109.4 +0.54 70 32
110 Saint Joseph's 109.2 +0.52 70 35
111 Texas A&M 109.2 +0.52 70 34
112 Robert Morris 109.2 +0.52 69 34
113 Cal State Northridge 109.1 +0.51 69 31
114 Bryant 109.0 +0.49 69 33
115 Rutgers 108.9 +0.47 69 32
116 Elon 108.9 +0.47 68 31
117 Longwood 108.8 +0.46 68 29
118 Kansas 108.8 +0.45 68 34
119 New Mexico 108.7 +0.45 67 34
120 UMass Lowell 108.7 +0.44 67 29
121 Arkansas 108.7 +0.44 67 36
122 Utah 108.6 +0.42 67 33
123 South Alabama 108.6 +0.42 66 30
124 UCF 108.6 +0.42 66 37
125 Idaho State 108.5 +0.41 66 27
126 Nebraska 108.5 +0.41 66 35
127 Incarnate Word 108.5 +0.40 65 32
128 Notre Dame 108.4 +0.39 65 33
129 Davidson 108.4 +0.39 65 32
130 Tulane 108.3 +0.37 64 32
131 Northwestern 108.2 +0.36 64 33
132 Columbia 108.1 +0.35 64 25
133 North Dakota 108.1 +0.34 64 30
134 Indiana State 108.1 +0.34 63 30
135 William & Mary 107.9 +0.32 63 30
136 California 107.9 +0.31 63 33
137 Queens University 107.9 +0.31 63 32
138 Miami 107.9 +0.31 62 31
139 Troy 107.8 +0.29 62 32
140 Marshall 107.7 +0.28 62 31
141 Northern Arizona 107.6 +0.27 61 30
142 Idaho 107.6 +0.27 61 31
143 UC Riverside 107.6 +0.27 61 32
144 Saint Louis 107.6 +0.26 61 32
145 Charleston 107.6 +0.26 60 32
146 East Carolina 107.6 +0.26 60 31
147 Rhode Island 107.5 +0.25 60 30
148 Indiana 107.5 +0.25 60 32
149 Towson 107.5 +0.24 59 32
150 Cincinnati 107.4 +0.24 59 35
151 Cal Poly 107.4 +0.23 59 34
152 Jacksonville State 107.4 +0.23 58 33
153 UMBC 107.2 +0.20 58 29
154 Loyola Chicago 107.2 +0.20 58 36
155 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 107.2 +0.20 58 30
156 UC Irvine 107.2 +0.20 57 38
157 Grand Canyon 107.0 +0.17 57 33
158 Providence 106.9 +0.16 57 32
159 Eastern Michigan 106.9 +0.15 56 31
160 Ball State 106.8 +0.14 56 28
161 Louisiana Tech 106.8 +0.14 56 29
162 Sacred Heart 106.7 +0.12 56 32
163 South Carolina State 106.7 +0.12 55 30
164 Colgate 106.7 +0.12 55 32
165 Drexel 106.7 +0.12 55 32
166 Utah Valley 106.6 +0.11 55 32
167 Middle Tennessee 106.6 +0.10 54 32
168 UIC 106.5 +0.10 54 29
169 Presbyterian 106.5 +0.09 54 30
170 UAlbany 106.5 +0.09 53 31
171 Georgia State 106.4 +0.07 53 32
172 Kent State 106.3 +0.06 53 34
173 Oakland 106.2 +0.04 53 33
174 Princeton 106.1 +0.03 52 28
175 Sam Houston 106.1 +0.02 52 29
176 George Mason 106.1 +0.02 52 35
177 Syracuse 106.0 +0.01 52 33
178 Florida State 106.0 +0.01 51 32
179 Montana State 106.0 +0.00 51 32
180 UTSA 105.9 +0.00 51 29
181 Rice 105.8 -0.02 50 31
182 North Carolina Central 105.8 -0.02 50 29
183 George Washington 105.7 -0.04 50 33
184 Cleveland State 105.6 -0.05 50 33
185 UT Arlington 105.6 -0.05 49 29
186 Central Michigan 105.6 -0.06 49 27
187 Wichita State 105.5 -0.07 49 33
188 Howard 105.5 -0.07 48 28
189 Valparaiso 105.4 -0.09 48 32
190 Cal State Bakersfield 105.3 -0.10 48 31
191 Georgetown 105.3 -0.10 48 34
192 Murray State 105.3 -0.10 47 32
193 NC State 105.2 -0.11 47 31
194 Virginia 105.2 -0.12 47 32
195 Central Connecticut 105.2 -0.12 47 30
196 Morgan State 105.1 -0.12 46 28
197 Hampton 105.1 -0.13 46 30
198 Bucknell 105.1 -0.13 46 33
199 Southern Illinois 105.1 -0.13 45 31
200 Gardner-Webb 105.0 -0.14 45 31
201 American University 105.0 -0.15 45 33
202 SE Louisiana 104.9 -0.16 45 30
203 South Florida 104.9 -0.17 44 31
204 Charlotte 104.8 -0.18 44 32
205 Navy 104.8 -0.18 44 33
206 DePaul 104.7 -0.19 44 34
207 Youngstown State 104.7 -0.19 43 32
208 Delaware State 104.7 -0.20 43 26
209 UNLV 104.7 -0.20 43 33
210 Nicholls 104.7 -0.20 42 30
211 St. Bonaventure 104.6 -0.21 42 33
212 Arizona State 104.5 -0.23 42 33
213 Minnesota 104.5 -0.23 42 32
214 Brown 104.4 -0.24 41 26
215 UT Rio Grande Valley 104.4 -0.25 41 27
216 Siena 104.4 -0.25 41 32
217 LSU 104.3 -0.25 40 32
218 Portland State 104.3 -0.26 40 29
219 Georgia Southern 104.3 -0.26 40 32
220 San Diego State 104.3 -0.26 40 30
221 Southeast Missouri State 104.2 -0.27 39 30
222 California Baptist 104.2 -0.27 39 32
223 Bellarmine 104.2 -0.27 39 29
224 Georgia Tech 104.2 -0.28 39 34
225 Tennessee State 104.1 -0.28 38 30
226 Northeastern 104.1 -0.29 38 32
227 Pepperdine 104.0 -0.30 38 34
228 Jacksonville 104.0 -0.31 37 31
229 Campbell 103.9 -0.31 37 30
230 Northern Kentucky 103.9 -0.33 37 31
231 San José State 103.9 -0.33 37 33
232 Duquesne 103.8 -0.34 36 31
233 Wake Forest 103.7 -0.35 36 32
234 Kansas State 103.7 -0.35 36 32
235 Western Michigan 103.7 -0.36 36 31
236 Quinnipiac 103.6 -0.37 35 32
237 Maine 103.6 -0.37 35 32
238 Army 103.5 -0.38 35 31
239 Washington 103.4 -0.40 34 30
240 Kennesaw State 103.4 -0.40 34 30
241 Alabama State 103.4 -0.41 34 35
242 Oral Roberts 103.3 -0.42 34 26
243 Virginia Tech 103.3 -0.42 33 32
244 Monmouth 103.2 -0.42 33 33
245 Kansas City 103.2 -0.43 33 29
246 South Carolina 103.2 -0.44 33 32
247 Holy Cross 103.1 -0.44 32 30
248 Hawai'i 103.1 -0.45 32 29
249 Fordham 103.1 -0.45 32 32
250 Bowling Green 103.1 -0.45 31 29
251 Austin Peay 103.0 -0.46 31 31
252 Eastern Washington 103.0 -0.47 31 30
253 SIU Edwardsville 102.9 -0.48 31 31
254 Stonehill 102.9 -0.49 30 30
255 App State 102.8 -0.50 30 29
256 West Virginia 102.8 -0.50 30 32
257 Dartmouth 102.8 -0.50 29 26
258 Loyola Marymount 102.7 -0.52 29 31
259 Niagara 102.6 -0.52 29 30
260 UTEP 102.5 -0.55 29 30
261 Loyola Maryland 102.4 -0.55 28 30
262 Pennsylvania 102.4 -0.56 28 27
263 Tennessee Tech 102.4 -0.56 28 30
264 Boston College 102.4 -0.57 28 31
265 Coastal Carolina 102.3 -0.57 27 30
266 Rider 102.3 -0.58 27 33
267 Oklahoma State 102.2 -0.59 27 35
268 UT Martin 102.2 -0.59 26 30
269 Binghamton 102.2 -0.60 26 29
270 Tulsa 102.1 -0.60 26 31
271 Portland 102.1 -0.61 26 30
272 Lehigh 102.0 -0.62 25 28
273 Le Moyne 102.0 -0.62 25 30
274 Weber State 101.9 -0.64 25 31
275 Marist 101.9 -0.64 25 30
276 Lamar 101.9 -0.64 24 30
277 Mercer 101.8 -0.65 24 31
278 Missouri State 101.8 -0.66 24 30
279 Lafayette 101.6 -0.68 23 32
280 Denver 101.6 -0.69 23 29
281 Seattle U 101.6 -0.69 23 30
282 Harvard 101.5 -0.70 23 26
283 Western Illinois 101.5 -0.70 22 28
284 Colorado 101.4 -0.72 22 35
285 La Salle 101.3 -0.73 22 32
286 Boston University 101.3 -0.73 21 31
287 New Mexico State 101.3 -0.73 21 29
288 Florida A&M 101.2 -0.75 21 28
289 Northwestern State 101.2 -0.75 21 30
290 VMI 101.2 -0.75 20 30
291 Fairleigh Dickinson 101.1 -0.76 20 30
292 Mount St. Mary's 101.1 -0.76 20 35
293 Merrimack 101.1 -0.76 20 33
294 Iona 101.0 -0.78 19 34
295 Stony Brook 101.0 -0.78 19 31
296 Vermont 100.9 -0.79 19 31
297 Old Dominion 100.8 -0.82 18 33
298 Massachusetts 100.8 -0.82 18 31
299 Green Bay 100.7 -0.82 18 31
300 Charleston Southern 100.7 -0.82 18 30
301 Wyoming 100.7 -0.83 17 31
302 Southern Indiana 100.6 -0.84 17 28
303 Mercyhurst 100.6 -0.85 17 28
304 Saint Francis 100.5 -0.87 17 31
305 Southern 100.3 -0.89 16 29
306 Western Kentucky 100.1 -0.93 16 30
307 Jackson State 100.0 -0.95 16 34
308 Stetson 99.9 -0.95 15 29
309 Fairfield 99.9 -0.96 15 31
310 Richmond 99.8 -0.98 15 30
311 Little Rock 99.7 -0.99 15 31
312 Houston Christian 99.6 -1.00 14 30
313 Pacific 99.4 -1.04 14 31
314 Utah Tech 99.3 -1.05 14 31
315 Central Arkansas 99.0 -1.10 13 31
316 Hofstra 99.0 -1.10 13 31
317 Long Beach State 98.7 -1.15 13 30
318 Prairie View A&M 98.6 -1.16 13 31
319 Long Island University 98.6 -1.17 12 31
320 TCU 98.4 -1.20 12 31
321 Bethune-Cookman 98.4 -1.20 12 33
322 Saint Peter's 98.3 -1.20 12 27
323 North Carolina A&T 98.3 -1.21 11 31
324 South Carolina Upstate 98.2 -1.22 11 29
325 West Georgia 98.0 -1.25 11 30
326 Morehead State 98.0 -1.26 10 29
327 Texas Southern 97.8 -1.28 10 29
328 Alcorn State 97.8 -1.29 10 31
329 Canisius 97.6 -1.33 10 31
330 San Diego 97.5 -1.33 9 32
331 Evansville 97.4 -1.35 9 31
332 Louisiana 97.2 -1.38 9 32
333 Southern Miss 97.1 -1.39 9 29
334 Buffalo 97.1 -1.39 8 29
335 New Orleans 97.1 -1.41 8 31
336 Detroit Mercy 96.9 -1.43 8 31
337 Florida International 96.9 -1.44 7 31
338 Grambling 96.8 -1.45 7 31
339 UC Davis 96.7 -1.46 7 30
340 Fresno State 96.6 -1.47 7 32
341 Lindenwood 96.4 -1.51 6 30
342 UL Monroe 96.4 -1.51 6 30
343 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 96.3 -1.52 6 29
344 Sacramento State 96.2 -1.54 6 29
345 Abilene Christian 96.0 -1.58 5 29
346 Southern Utah 95.5 -1.66 5 28
347 NJIT 95.1 -1.71 5 30
348 Air Force 95.1 -1.72 4 32
349 New Hampshire 95.0 -1.74 4 30
350 Stephen F. Austin 95.0 -1.74 4 28
351 Northern Illinois 94.6 -1.80 4 28
352 Alabama A&M 94.6 -1.80 3 29
353 The Citadel 94.5 -1.81 3 26
354 East Texas A&M 94.4 -1.82 3 31
355 Seton Hall 94.4 -1.83 2 32
356 Eastern Illinois 94.2 -1.86 2 28
357 Wagner 93.9 -1.90 2 26
358 Maryland Eastern Shore 93.5 -1.97 2 27
359 Western Carolina 93.1 -2.03 1 27
360 Cal State Fullerton 90.8 -2.40 1 30
361 Chicago State 89.6 -2.59 1 32
362 Tarleton State 89.5 -2.61 1 29
363 Coppin State 88.7 -2.73 0 29
364 Mississippi Valley State 79.5 -4.19 0 29