And then my good friend Shaggy says "Come spend some time, family" "44/876" -- Shaggy & Sting

Does it predict winners?

Predicts home win: AUC 0.65 (team entering with the better value wins 61% of games)

See the game-by-game scatter on the Predictor page →

Team Distribution

Season-to-date value for every team, with a density curve.

min 37.7% max 50.1% mean 44.2% std 2.4% (n=364)

Team Rankings

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# Team Field Goal Percentage z Pctl GP
1 Gonzaga 50.1% +2.44 100 35
2 Northern Colorado 50.0% +2.42 100 32
3 Cornell 49.6% +2.23 99 27
4 Duke 49.3% +2.13 99 39
5 Montana 49.3% +2.11 99 32
6 Washington State 49.1% +2.04 99 34
7 High Point 49.1% +2.04 98 33
8 Wright State 49.0% +1.99 98 31
9 Iowa 49.0% +1.98 98 33
10 St. Thomas-Minnesota 48.8% +1.93 98 31
11 UMass Lowell 48.7% +1.86 97 29
12 Purdue 48.6% +1.83 97 36
13 Yale 48.5% +1.80 97 29
14 Northern Iowa 48.5% +1.80 96 32
15 USC 48.5% +1.77 96 35
16 Liberty 48.5% +1.77 96 32
17 Alabama 48.4% +1.74 96 37
18 Bradley 48.3% +1.71 95 36
19 Iowa State 48.3% +1.70 95 35
20 BYU 48.2% +1.66 95 35
21 Missouri 48.2% +1.65 94 34
22 Kentucky 48.2% +1.65 94 36
23 Oregon State 48.0% +1.59 94 32
24 Norfolk State 48.0% +1.58 94 32
25 Chattanooga 47.9% +1.55 93 36
26 Penn State 47.9% +1.53 93 31
27 UMBC 47.9% +1.53 93 29
28 SMU 47.8% +1.52 93 35
29 Utah State 47.8% +1.52 92 33
30 Colorado State 47.7% +1.48 92 36
31 Creighton 47.7% +1.47 92 36
32 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 47.7% +1.46 91 30
33 Illinois State 47.7% +1.45 91 35
34 Auburn 47.6% +1.42 91 38
35 North Dakota State 47.6% +1.40 91 29
36 Delaware 47.5% +1.39 90 34
37 UConn 47.5% +1.38 90 35
38 North Carolina 47.5% +1.37 90 37
39 Saint Louis 47.5% +1.37 90 32
40 Arizona 47.4% +1.35 89 37
41 Drake 47.4% +1.34 89 33
42 Nevada 47.3% +1.31 89 33
43 Memphis 47.2% +1.25 88 35
44 Santa Clara 47.2% +1.24 88 34
45 Florida 47.1% +1.21 88 40
46 Kansas 47.0% +1.17 88 34
47 Miami (OH) 47.0% +1.17 87 32
48 Maryland 47.0% +1.16 87 36
49 Lipscomb 46.9% +1.15 87 33
50 Florida Gulf Coast 46.8% +1.10 87 33
51 Winthrop 46.8% +1.10 86 31
52 Michigan 46.8% +1.09 86 37
53 Oklahoma 46.8% +1.08 86 34
54 Akron 46.7% +1.05 85 33
55 Xavier 46.7% +1.04 85 34
56 South Dakota State 46.6% +1.02 85 29
57 Colgate 46.6% +1.01 85 32
58 Ohio State 46.6% +1.00 84 32
59 Bucknell 46.6% +1.00 84 33
60 Texas Tech 46.6% +0.99 84 37
61 McNeese 46.6% +0.99 83 33
62 Central Connecticut 46.5% +0.94 83 30
63 Howard 46.5% +0.94 83 28
64 Gardner-Webb 46.4% +0.93 83 31
65 Milwaukee 46.4% +0.93 82 30
66 Cal State Northridge 46.4% +0.92 82 31
67 UCLA 46.4% +0.91 82 34
68 Ohio 46.4% +0.90 82 31
69 Belmont 46.3% +0.89 81 32
70 Florida Atlantic 46.3% +0.89 81 33
71 Rhode Island 46.3% +0.88 81 30
72 Purdue Fort Wayne 46.3% +0.87 80 30
73 Texas 46.3% +0.86 80 35
74 Arkansas 46.2% +0.86 80 36
75 Clemson 46.2% +0.85 80 34
76 UC San Diego 46.1% +0.81 79 33
77 UNC Wilmington 46.1% +0.80 79 33
78 Columbia 46.0% +0.76 79 25
79 UNC Asheville 46.0% +0.76 79 28
80 Georgia 46.0% +0.75 78 33
81 Butler 46.0% +0.75 78 35
82 Oregon 46.0% +0.74 78 35
83 Bellarmine 46.0% +0.74 77 29
84 Villanova 46.0% +0.74 77 36
85 Cal Poly 45.9% +0.73 77 34
86 Miami 45.9% +0.72 77 31
87 Samford 45.9% +0.70 76 31
88 Tennessee State 45.9% +0.70 76 30
89 Indiana State 45.8% +0.67 76 30
90 Indiana 45.8% +0.67 75 32
91 Boise State 45.8% +0.66 75 36
92 Michigan State 45.8% +0.66 75 37
93 Longwood 45.7% +0.64 75 29
94 Toledo 45.7% +0.64 74 32
95 Eastern Michigan 45.7% +0.63 74 31
96 Maine 45.7% +0.63 74 32
97 Texas State 45.7% +0.63 74 30
98 Drexel 45.7% +0.62 73 32
99 Syracuse 45.7% +0.62 73 33
100 Southern Illinois 45.7% +0.61 73 31
101 Omaha 45.7% +0.61 72 33
102 Morgan State 45.6% +0.60 72 28
103 Nebraska 45.6% +0.59 72 35
104 UC Santa Barbara 45.6% +0.59 72 32
105 Dayton 45.6% +0.58 71 33
106 Utah Valley 45.6% +0.57 71 32
107 Louisiana Tech 45.4% +0.53 71 29
108 Portland State 45.4% +0.52 71 29
109 New Mexico 45.4% +0.52 70 34
110 Montana State 45.4% +0.52 70 32
111 Grand Canyon 45.4% +0.51 70 33
112 UC Irvine 45.4% +0.50 69 38
113 Wisconsin 45.4% +0.50 69 37
114 Florida State 45.4% +0.50 69 32
115 Loyola Chicago 45.4% +0.50 69 36
116 Louisville 45.4% +0.49 68 35
117 North Alabama 45.4% +0.49 68 33
118 San Francisco 45.3% +0.49 68 34
119 George Mason 45.3% +0.46 67 35
120 Charleston 45.3% +0.45 67 32
121 Tennessee 45.2% +0.44 67 38
122 Mississippi State 45.2% +0.44 67 34
123 Incarnate Word 45.2% +0.43 66 32
124 Davidson 45.2% +0.42 66 32
125 UAB 45.2% +0.42 66 36
126 Northeastern 45.2% +0.42 66 32
127 Binghamton 45.2% +0.41 65 29
128 Southeast Missouri State 45.1% +0.40 65 30
129 Delaware State 45.1% +0.40 65 26
130 South Carolina State 45.1% +0.38 64 30
131 Tulane 45.1% +0.37 64 32
132 Pittsburgh 45.1% +0.37 64 32
133 Illinois 45.1% +0.36 64 35
134 Notre Dame 45.1% +0.36 63 33
135 Presbyterian 45.0% +0.36 63 30
136 Vanderbilt 45.0% +0.34 63 33
137 Wofford 44.9% +0.32 63 33
138 Bryant 44.9% +0.32 62 33
139 Holy Cross 44.9% +0.31 62 30
140 Queens University 44.9% +0.31 62 32
141 Ball State 44.9% +0.31 61 28
142 Saint Mary's 44.9% +0.30 61 34
143 Houston 44.9% +0.29 61 40
144 Eastern Washington 44.9% +0.29 61 30
145 Cincinnati 44.9% +0.28 60 35
146 William & Mary 44.8% +0.27 60 30
147 Robert Morris 44.8% +0.26 60 34
148 Hawai'i 44.8% +0.26 60 29
149 Le Moyne 44.8% +0.25 59 30
150 Saint Francis 44.7% +0.23 59 31
151 Middle Tennessee 44.7% +0.21 59 32
152 Radford 44.7% +0.21 58 31
153 Georgia State 44.7% +0.21 58 32
154 Virginia 44.6% +0.19 58 32
155 Utah 44.6% +0.19 58 33
156 Rutgers 44.6% +0.18 57 32
157 DePaul 44.6% +0.17 57 34
158 Niagara 44.6% +0.16 57 30
159 Central Michigan 44.6% +0.16 56 27
160 St. John's 44.5% +0.16 56 36
161 North Texas 44.5% +0.15 56 34
162 Washington 44.5% +0.13 56 30
163 Ole Miss 44.5% +0.13 55 36
164 Furman 44.5% +0.12 55 32
165 LSU 44.5% +0.12 55 32
166 Brown 44.4% +0.11 55 26
167 Marquette 44.4% +0.10 54 34
168 Colorado 44.4% +0.10 54 35
169 St. Bonaventure 44.4% +0.10 54 33
170 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 44.4% +0.09 53 29
171 North Carolina Central 44.4% +0.09 53 29
172 UIC 44.4% +0.08 53 29
173 South Carolina Upstate 44.3% +0.07 53 29
174 Lehigh 44.3% +0.07 52 28
175 Wake Forest 44.3% +0.07 52 32
176 Wichita State 44.3% +0.06 52 33
177 Temple 44.3% +0.06 52 31
178 VCU 44.3% +0.06 51 34
179 Baylor 44.3% +0.04 51 34
180 Missouri State 44.3% +0.04 51 30
181 Cleveland State 44.2% +0.03 50 33
182 UT Arlington 44.2% +0.02 50 29
183 Georgetown 44.2% +0.01 50 34
184 Harvard 44.2% +0.01 50 26
185 Denver 44.2% +0.01 49 29
186 Weber State 44.2% -0.00 49 31
187 South Dakota 44.2% -0.00 49 30
188 Kansas State 44.2% -0.01 48 32
189 Virginia Tech 44.2% -0.01 48 32
190 Northwestern 44.1% -0.04 48 33
191 Minnesota 44.1% -0.04 48 32
192 SE Louisiana 44.1% -0.04 47 30
193 American University 44.1% -0.05 47 33
194 San Diego State 44.0% -0.06 47 30
195 Providence 44.0% -0.06 47 32
196 George Washington 44.0% -0.07 46 33
197 Marist 44.0% -0.08 46 30
198 UNLV 44.0% -0.08 46 33
199 Little Rock 44.0% -0.08 45 31
200 Jacksonville 43.9% -0.10 45 31
201 Georgia Tech 43.9% -0.11 45 34
202 UT Rio Grande Valley 43.9% -0.12 45 27
203 Arizona State 43.9% -0.12 44 33
204 Saint Joseph's 43.8% -0.15 44 35
205 Northern Arizona 43.8% -0.15 44 30
206 Mount St. Mary's 43.8% -0.15 44 35
207 South Florida 43.8% -0.16 43 31
208 Stetson 43.8% -0.16 43 29
209 North Florida 43.8% -0.17 43 30
210 Pepperdine 43.7% -0.18 42 34
211 Manhattan 43.7% -0.21 42 30
212 Oakland 43.7% -0.21 42 33
213 Loyola Maryland 43.6% -0.22 42 30
214 Sam Houston 43.6% -0.24 41 29
215 South Alabama 43.6% -0.24 41 30
216 Canisius 43.6% -0.25 41 31
217 UAlbany 43.6% -0.25 40 31
218 Marshall 43.6% -0.25 40 31
219 Loyola Marymount 43.5% -0.26 40 31
220 Stanford 43.5% -0.27 40 35
221 Jacksonville State 43.5% -0.28 39 33
222 Elon 43.5% -0.29 39 31
223 Idaho 43.4% -0.30 39 31
224 Lafayette 43.4% -0.33 39 32
225 Wyoming 43.3% -0.35 38 31
226 Campbell 43.3% -0.36 38 30
227 Green Bay 43.3% -0.36 38 31
228 Bowling Green 43.3% -0.36 37 29
229 Sacred Heart 43.3% -0.37 37 32
230 Boston University 43.3% -0.38 37 31
231 Boston College 43.2% -0.39 37 31
232 Northern Kentucky 43.2% -0.39 36 31
233 Western Illinois 43.2% -0.40 36 28
234 North Dakota 43.2% -0.41 36 30
235 Stonehill 43.2% -0.41 36 30
236 Florida A&M 43.2% -0.42 35 28
237 San José State 43.1% -0.43 35 33
238 Abilene Christian 43.0% -0.47 35 29
239 Troy 43.0% -0.48 34 32
240 East Tennessee State 43.0% -0.48 34 30
241 Georgia Southern 43.0% -0.48 34 32
242 UNC Greensboro 43.0% -0.48 34 29
243 Army 43.0% -0.49 33 31
244 UTEP 43.0% -0.49 33 30
245 Rider 43.0% -0.49 33 33
246 Cal State Bakersfield 43.0% -0.50 33 31
247 East Carolina 42.9% -0.51 32 31
248 Kent State 42.9% -0.52 32 34
249 Tulsa 42.9% -0.52 32 31
250 Princeton 42.9% -0.53 31 28
251 Siena 42.9% -0.54 31 32
252 Prairie View A&M 42.8% -0.54 31 31
253 Oklahoma State 42.8% -0.55 31 35
254 Portland 42.8% -0.57 30 30
255 Bethune-Cookman 42.8% -0.57 30 33
256 James Madison 42.8% -0.58 30 29
257 Quinnipiac 42.7% -0.59 29 32
258 West Georgia 42.7% -0.60 29 30
259 California Baptist 42.7% -0.60 29 32
260 Evansville 42.7% -0.60 29 31
261 South Carolina 42.7% -0.60 28 32
262 App State 42.7% -0.62 28 29
263 Long Beach State 42.6% -0.63 28 30
264 Duquesne 42.6% -0.64 28 31
265 Coastal Carolina 42.6% -0.64 27 30
266 UCF 42.6% -0.65 27 37
267 Long Island University 42.6% -0.65 27 31
268 Murray State 42.6% -0.65 26 32
269 Mercer 42.6% -0.66 26 31
270 Tennessee Tech 42.5% -0.67 26 30
271 Youngstown State 42.5% -0.68 26 32
272 Pacific 42.5% -0.68 25 31
273 NC State 42.5% -0.69 25 31
274 Northwestern State 42.5% -0.70 25 30
275 SIU Edwardsville 42.5% -0.71 25 31
276 West Virginia 42.5% -0.71 24 32
277 Arkansas State 42.4% -0.72 24 35
278 Fairleigh Dickinson 42.4% -0.73 24 30
279 Dartmouth 42.4% -0.73 23 26
280 Western Michigan 42.4% -0.75 23 31
281 Kennesaw State 42.4% -0.75 23 30
282 UC Riverside 42.4% -0.75 23 32
283 Eastern Kentucky 42.3% -0.75 22 30
284 Merrimack 42.3% -0.78 22 33
285 Southern Miss 42.3% -0.78 22 29
286 Charleston Southern 42.3% -0.78 21 30
287 Jackson State 42.2% -0.81 21 34
288 Pennsylvania 42.2% -0.81 21 27
289 Buffalo 42.1% -0.84 21 29
290 Mercyhurst 42.1% -0.84 20 28
291 Rice 42.1% -0.84 20 31
292 Utah Tech 42.1% -0.85 20 31
293 Oral Roberts 42.1% -0.86 20 26
294 Air Force 42.1% -0.86 19 32
295 Idaho State 42.1% -0.86 19 27
296 Southern 42.0% -0.88 19 29
297 Iona 42.0% -0.89 18 34
298 Vermont 42.0% -0.89 18 31
299 Fordham 42.0% -0.90 18 32
300 Charlotte 42.0% -0.90 18 32
301 Southern Indiana 42.0% -0.90 17 28
302 Houston Christian 41.9% -0.92 17 30
303 California 41.9% -0.95 17 33
304 Austin Peay 41.9% -0.95 17 31
305 Hofstra 41.8% -0.96 16 31
306 Navy 41.8% -0.97 16 33
307 Texas A&M 41.8% -0.98 16 34
308 Southern Utah 41.8% -0.98 15 28
309 Florida International 41.8% -0.98 15 31
310 Tarleton State 41.8% -0.99 15 29
311 Towson 41.7% -1.00 15 32
312 UTSA 41.7% -1.01 14 29
313 IU Indianapolis 41.7% -1.01 14 29
314 Grambling 41.7% -1.02 14 31
315 Nicholls 41.7% -1.03 13 30
316 East Texas A&M 41.6% -1.06 13 31
317 Western Kentucky 41.6% -1.07 13 30
318 Hampton 41.5% -1.08 13 30
319 Texas Southern 41.5% -1.09 12 29
320 Valparaiso 41.5% -1.10 12 32
321 Alcorn State 41.4% -1.14 12 31
322 Lamar 41.4% -1.14 12 30
323 Stephen F. Austin 41.4% -1.16 11 28
324 Richmond 41.3% -1.20 11 30
325 VMI 41.2% -1.21 11 30
326 New Orleans 41.2% -1.23 10 31
327 Kansas City 41.2% -1.24 10 29
328 Monmouth 41.1% -1.27 10 33
329 Stony Brook 41.1% -1.27 10 31
330 TCU 41.1% -1.28 9 31
331 Sacramento State 41.0% -1.30 9 29
332 Detroit Mercy 40.9% -1.36 9 31
333 Seattle U 40.9% -1.37 9 30
334 New Hampshire 40.7% -1.45 8 30
335 Massachusetts 40.6% -1.47 8 31
336 Morehead State 40.6% -1.47 8 29
337 La Salle 40.6% -1.47 7 32
338 Fresno State 40.6% -1.48 7 32
339 UC Davis 40.5% -1.50 7 30
340 New Mexico State 40.5% -1.53 7 29
341 North Carolina A&T 40.4% -1.54 6 31
342 Lindenwood 40.4% -1.56 6 30
343 San Diego 40.4% -1.56 6 32
344 Central Arkansas 40.4% -1.57 6 31
345 Fairfield 40.3% -1.59 5 31
346 The Citadel 40.3% -1.59 5 26
347 UT Martin 40.2% -1.62 5 30
348 Alabama State 40.0% -1.71 4 35
349 Seton Hall 40.0% -1.72 4 32
350 Maryland Eastern Shore 39.8% -1.80 4 27
351 Louisiana 39.8% -1.81 4 32
352 Cal State Fullerton 39.6% -1.90 3 30
353 NJIT 39.5% -1.91 3 30
354 UL Monroe 39.5% -1.92 3 30
355 Eastern Illinois 39.4% -1.97 2 28
356 Coppin State 39.3% -2.00 2 29
357 Northern Illinois 39.1% -2.09 2 28
358 Old Dominion 39.0% -2.12 2 33
359 Alabama A&M 38.7% -2.26 1 29
360 Saint Peter's 38.5% -2.36 1 27
361 Western Carolina 38.3% -2.43 1 27
362 Chicago State 38.2% -2.48 1 32
363 Wagner 37.8% -2.63 0 26
364 Mississippi Valley State 37.7% -2.67 0 29