Everybody's in despair, every girl and boy. "Quinn the Eskimo" - Bob Dylan

Does it predict winners?

Predicts home win: AUC 0.70 (team entering with the better value wins 65% of games)

See the game-by-game scatter on the Predictor page →

Team Distribution

Season-to-date value for every team, with a density curve.

min 92.6 max 124.1 mean 106.4 std 5.3 (n=364)

Team Rankings

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# Team Defensive Efficiency z Pctl GP
1 St. John's 92.6 -2.60 100 36
2 Houston 92.7 -2.59 100 40
3 UC San Diego 94.1 -2.33 99 33
4 Duke 94.2 -2.31 99 39
5 VCU 94.5 -2.25 99 34
6 Central Connecticut 95.0 -2.16 99 30
7 Maryland 95.1 -2.14 98 36
8 UC Irvine 95.1 -2.13 98 38
9 George Mason 96.0 -1.96 98 35
10 Grand Canyon 96.2 -1.93 98 33
11 Saint Mary's 96.5 -1.87 97 34
12 New Mexico 96.6 -1.85 97 34
13 Tennessee 96.8 -1.82 97 38
14 Iowa State 96.9 -1.80 96 35
15 Michigan State 97.2 -1.74 96 37
16 Liberty 97.7 -1.64 96 32
17 San Diego State 97.8 -1.62 96 30
18 McNeese 97.9 -1.60 95 33
19 West Virginia 97.9 -1.60 95 32
20 Gonzaga 98.1 -1.58 95 35
21 Merrimack 98.2 -1.54 94 33
22 Southern 98.4 -1.50 94 29
23 Florida 98.5 -1.50 94 40
24 North Texas 98.5 -1.49 94 34
25 UCLA 98.6 -1.46 93 34
26 Clemson 98.8 -1.43 93 34
27 Marist 98.9 -1.42 93 30
28 Cincinnati 99.0 -1.40 93 35
29 Troy 99.0 -1.39 92 32
30 Drake 99.2 -1.36 92 33
31 Little Rock 99.2 -1.36 92 31
32 Southeast Missouri State 99.2 -1.35 91 30
33 Utah Valley 99.2 -1.35 91 32
34 Kansas 99.4 -1.32 91 34
35 Saint Joseph's 99.5 -1.31 91 35
36 Auburn 99.9 -1.24 90 38
37 South Alabama 99.9 -1.23 90 30
38 Hofstra 99.9 -1.23 90 31
39 Wake Forest 99.9 -1.22 90 32
40 Abilene Christian 100.0 -1.21 89 29
41 St. Bonaventure 100.0 -1.20 89 33
42 Marquette 100.0 -1.20 89 34
43 Arkansas State 100.2 -1.17 88 35
44 Long Island University 100.3 -1.16 88 31
45 Colorado State 100.3 -1.15 88 36
46 Michigan 100.3 -1.14 88 37
47 South Carolina State 100.3 -1.14 87 30
48 Louisville 100.4 -1.13 87 35
49 Quinnipiac 100.4 -1.13 87 32
50 Maine 100.4 -1.13 87 32
51 Seattle U 100.5 -1.11 86 30
52 App State 100.5 -1.11 86 29
53 Texas A&M 100.6 -1.10 86 34
54 San Francisco 100.6 -1.09 85 34
55 Lipscomb 100.6 -1.09 85 33
56 Arkansas 100.7 -1.07 85 36
57 Boise State 100.9 -1.04 85 36
58 Kent State 101.0 -1.01 84 34
59 Texas Southern 101.1 -1.00 84 29
60 SIU Edwardsville 101.3 -0.97 84 31
61 Texas Tech 101.3 -0.97 83 37
62 George Washington 101.4 -0.94 83 33
63 Georgetown 101.5 -0.93 83 34
64 Stephen F. Austin 101.5 -0.93 83 28
65 Oregon 101.5 -0.92 82 35
66 Lamar 101.5 -0.92 82 30
67 Vermont 101.6 -0.91 82 31
68 New Mexico State 101.7 -0.89 82 29
69 Cal State Northridge 101.7 -0.88 81 31
70 Georgia 101.8 -0.87 81 33
71 Bryant 101.9 -0.85 81 33
72 Iona 101.9 -0.85 80 34
73 Kansas State 102.0 -0.84 80 32
74 Saint Peter's 102.2 -0.80 80 27
75 SMU 102.2 -0.80 80 35
76 Memphis 102.2 -0.79 79 35
77 Loyola Chicago 102.2 -0.79 79 36
78 Robert Morris 102.4 -0.76 79 34
79 Florida State 102.5 -0.74 79 32
80 Dartmouth 102.5 -0.74 78 26
81 Western Kentucky 102.5 -0.73 78 30
82 Xavier 102.6 -0.72 78 34
83 East Tennessee State 102.6 -0.72 77 30
84 Youngstown State 102.6 -0.71 77 32
85 Wagner 102.6 -0.71 77 26
86 Santa Clara 102.8 -0.69 77 34
87 California Baptist 102.8 -0.69 76 32
88 Wisconsin 102.8 -0.69 76 37
89 Northwestern 102.8 -0.68 76 33
90 Creighton 102.8 -0.68 75 36
91 Illinois 102.9 -0.67 75 35
92 TCU 102.9 -0.66 75 31
93 Portland State 102.9 -0.65 75 29
94 Ole Miss 103.0 -0.63 74 36
95 Duquesne 103.1 -0.62 74 31
96 Cleveland State 103.1 -0.62 74 33
97 Arizona 103.1 -0.62 74 37
98 Bradley 103.2 -0.61 73 36
99 Northern Iowa 103.2 -0.61 73 32
100 Yale 103.2 -0.60 73 29
101 UNLV 103.3 -0.58 72 33
102 Florida International 103.3 -0.58 72 31
103 Tennessee State 103.4 -0.58 72 30
104 Mount St. Mary's 103.4 -0.57 72 35
105 Penn State 103.5 -0.56 71 31
106 UC Davis 103.5 -0.55 71 30
107 Louisiana Tech 103.5 -0.55 71 29
108 Milwaukee 103.6 -0.53 71 30
109 Bucknell 103.7 -0.52 70 33
110 UNC Greensboro 103.7 -0.52 70 29
111 Nebraska 103.7 -0.51 70 35
112 Eastern Illinois 103.8 -0.50 69 28
113 Grambling 103.8 -0.49 69 31
114 Bethune-Cookman 103.8 -0.49 69 33
115 Drexel 103.9 -0.48 69 32
116 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 103.9 -0.47 68 30
117 Charleston 103.9 -0.47 68 32
118 Miami (OH) 103.9 -0.46 68 32
119 Nevada 103.9 -0.46 67 33
120 Northeastern 104.0 -0.45 67 32
121 Indiana 104.1 -0.44 67 32
122 Georgia Tech 104.1 -0.44 67 34
123 Lindenwood 104.1 -0.44 66 30
124 Middle Tennessee 104.1 -0.44 66 32
125 Campbell 104.1 -0.43 66 30
126 Kennesaw State 104.1 -0.43 66 30
127 UConn 104.2 -0.43 65 35
128 Towson 104.2 -0.42 65 32
129 UC Santa Barbara 104.2 -0.42 65 32
130 Nicholls 104.3 -0.40 64 30
131 Texas 104.3 -0.40 64 35
132 Utah 104.4 -0.37 64 33
133 SE Louisiana 104.4 -0.37 64 30
134 Jacksonville 104.5 -0.36 63 31
135 UNC Wilmington 104.5 -0.36 63 33
136 UTEP 104.5 -0.36 63 30
137 Lafayette 104.5 -0.35 63 32
138 Tarleton State 104.6 -0.33 62 29
139 Rhode Island 104.6 -0.33 62 30
140 Akron 104.7 -0.32 62 33
141 Wichita State 104.8 -0.31 61 33
142 North Carolina 104.8 -0.30 61 37
143 North Alabama 104.8 -0.29 61 33
144 Colorado 104.9 -0.28 61 35
145 Marshall 105.0 -0.27 60 31
146 Saint Louis 105.0 -0.26 60 32
147 Alabama State 105.0 -0.26 60 35
148 Jacksonville State 105.0 -0.26 60 33
149 Murray State 105.1 -0.25 59 32
150 Utah State 105.1 -0.25 59 33
151 Ohio State 105.1 -0.24 59 32
152 Missouri 105.1 -0.24 58 34
153 Stanford 105.1 -0.24 58 35
154 Tulane 105.1 -0.24 58 32
155 Pittsburgh 105.2 -0.23 58 32
156 Jackson State 105.2 -0.22 57 34
157 High Point 105.3 -0.21 57 33
158 Massachusetts 105.3 -0.20 57 31
159 BYU 105.3 -0.20 56 35
160 Oklahoma State 105.4 -0.20 56 35
161 LSU 105.4 -0.19 56 32
162 Loyola Marymount 105.4 -0.18 56 31
163 Brown 105.5 -0.17 55 26
164 American University 105.6 -0.15 55 33
165 Montana State 105.7 -0.14 55 32
166 Boston University 105.7 -0.14 55 31
167 Mississippi State 105.7 -0.13 54 34
168 Siena 105.8 -0.12 54 32
169 Alabama 105.9 -0.10 54 37
170 Dayton 105.9 -0.10 53 33
171 Oregon State 106.0 -0.08 53 32
172 Vanderbilt 106.0 -0.07 53 33
173 Rice 106.1 -0.06 53 31
174 Furman 106.1 -0.06 52 32
175 Navy 106.1 -0.05 52 33
176 Baylor 106.2 -0.05 52 34
177 Hawai'i 106.3 -0.03 52 29
178 Mercer 106.3 -0.02 51 31
179 Purdue 106.4 +0.00 51 36
180 South Florida 106.4 +0.00 51 31
181 Northern Kentucky 106.4 +0.01 50 31
182 Northwestern State 106.4 +0.01 50 30
183 Princeton 106.5 +0.01 50 28
184 Florida Gulf Coast 106.5 +0.02 50 33
185 Villanova 106.5 +0.02 49 36
186 Norfolk State 106.6 +0.03 49 32
187 Evansville 106.6 +0.03 49 31
188 Fairleigh Dickinson 106.6 +0.04 48 30
189 South Carolina 106.7 +0.05 48 32
190 NC State 106.7 +0.06 48 31
191 Northern Colorado 106.8 +0.07 48 32
192 Kentucky 106.8 +0.07 47 36
193 Oklahoma 106.8 +0.08 47 34
194 Seton Hall 106.8 +0.08 47 32
195 Hampton 106.9 +0.09 47 30
196 Ohio 106.9 +0.09 46 31
197 Morehead State 106.9 +0.10 46 29
198 Samford 107.0 +0.11 46 31
199 Idaho State 107.0 +0.11 45 27
200 Lehigh 107.0 +0.11 45 28
201 Sacred Heart 107.0 +0.12 45 32
202 Winthrop 107.0 +0.12 45 31
203 Georgia Southern 107.1 +0.12 44 32
204 Kansas City 107.1 +0.13 44 29
205 UIC 107.1 +0.13 44 29
206 Southern Miss 107.1 +0.13 44 29
207 UT Martin 107.1 +0.14 43 30
208 Purdue Fort Wayne 107.2 +0.16 43 30
209 South Dakota State 107.3 +0.17 43 29
210 Tennessee Tech 107.3 +0.17 42 30
211 Minnesota 107.3 +0.17 42 32
212 Central Michigan 107.3 +0.18 42 27
213 Southern Utah 107.5 +0.20 42 28
214 Stonehill 107.5 +0.21 41 30
215 Chattanooga 107.5 +0.22 41 36
216 Elon 107.6 +0.22 41 31
217 DePaul 107.6 +0.22 40 34
218 USC 107.7 +0.24 40 35
219 Harvard 107.8 +0.26 40 26
220 Saint Francis 107.8 +0.26 40 31
221 Wyoming 107.8 +0.26 39 31
222 Colgate 107.8 +0.26 39 32
223 Notre Dame 107.8 +0.27 39 33
224 Houston Christian 107.9 +0.28 39 30
225 UAlbany 107.9 +0.28 38 31
226 Loyola Maryland 107.9 +0.29 38 30
227 East Carolina 108.0 +0.30 38 31
228 Davidson 108.0 +0.30 37 32
229 Providence 108.1 +0.32 37 32
230 Bowling Green 108.1 +0.33 37 29
231 La Salle 108.1 +0.33 37 32
232 Arizona State 108.2 +0.34 36 33
233 Virginia 108.3 +0.35 36 32
234 Binghamton 108.3 +0.36 36 29
235 Longwood 108.4 +0.38 36 29
236 Queens University 108.5 +0.39 35 32
237 Florida Atlantic 108.5 +0.39 35 33
238 San José State 108.6 +0.41 35 33
239 Illinois State 108.6 +0.41 34 35
240 James Madison 108.6 +0.42 34 29
241 Missouri State 108.6 +0.42 34 30
242 UCF 108.6 +0.42 34 37
243 Incarnate Word 108.7 +0.43 33 32
244 Texas State 108.7 +0.43 33 30
245 Tulsa 108.7 +0.43 33 31
246 UAB 108.8 +0.44 33 36
247 Washington State 108.8 +0.45 32 34
248 UT Arlington 108.8 +0.45 32 29
249 Wofford 108.8 +0.45 32 33
250 Southern Indiana 108.9 +0.47 31 28
251 UT Rio Grande Valley 109.0 +0.49 31 27
252 UMass Lowell 109.0 +0.49 31 29
253 Cornell 109.1 +0.50 31 27
254 St. Thomas-Minnesota 109.2 +0.52 30 31
255 Belmont 109.2 +0.52 30 32
256 Delaware State 109.2 +0.53 30 26
257 Valparaiso 109.2 +0.53 29 32
258 Alcorn State 109.3 +0.55 29 31
259 Old Dominion 109.3 +0.55 29 33
260 Radford 109.4 +0.56 29 31
261 Temple 109.4 +0.56 28 31
262 Niagara 109.4 +0.57 28 30
263 Louisiana 109.5 +0.58 28 32
264 Rutgers 109.5 +0.58 28 32
265 Florida A&M 109.6 +0.60 27 28
266 Northern Arizona 109.6 +0.61 27 30
267 Alabama A&M 109.6 +0.61 27 29
268 Virginia Tech 109.6 +0.61 26 32
269 Manhattan 109.7 +0.61 26 30
270 Eastern Kentucky 109.7 +0.62 26 30
271 Ball State 109.7 +0.62 26 28
272 Oakland 109.7 +0.63 25 33
273 Washington 109.8 +0.64 25 30
274 Presbyterian 109.8 +0.64 25 30
275 Mercyhurst 109.8 +0.65 25 28
276 Cal Poly 109.9 +0.67 24 34
277 Southern Illinois 110.0 +0.68 24 31
278 East Texas A&M 110.1 +0.70 24 31
279 California 110.1 +0.71 23 33
280 NJIT 110.2 +0.71 23 30
281 UTSA 110.2 +0.71 23 29
282 Fairfield 110.2 +0.72 23 31
283 UC Riverside 110.3 +0.73 22 32
284 Butler 110.3 +0.74 22 35
285 Boston College 110.3 +0.74 22 31
286 Richmond 110.3 +0.74 21 30
287 Montana 110.3 +0.74 21 32
288 William & Mary 110.3 +0.74 21 30
289 Rider 110.4 +0.76 21 33
290 VMI 110.5 +0.77 20 30
291 Army 110.5 +0.77 20 31
292 Fordham 110.6 +0.79 20 32
293 Western Michigan 110.7 +0.82 20 31
294 Monmouth 110.8 +0.83 19 33
295 Iowa 110.8 +0.83 19 33
296 Omaha 110.8 +0.83 19 33
297 Syracuse 110.9 +0.85 18 33
298 Coppin State 111.1 +0.88 18 29
299 Detroit Mercy 111.1 +0.89 18 31
300 Pepperdine 111.1 +0.89 18 34
301 Holy Cross 111.1 +0.89 17 30
302 North Carolina A&T 111.3 +0.92 17 31
303 Sam Houston 111.3 +0.93 17 29
304 Western Illinois 111.3 +0.93 17 28
305 Cal State Bakersfield 111.4 +0.93 16 31
306 Fresno State 111.4 +0.94 16 32
307 Gardner-Webb 111.4 +0.95 16 31
308 Utah Tech 111.5 +0.97 15 31
309 UMBC 111.7 +1.01 15 29
310 Eastern Michigan 111.8 +1.01 15 31
311 Indiana State 111.8 +1.01 15 30
312 San Diego 111.9 +1.04 14 32
313 UNC Asheville 111.9 +1.04 14 28
314 Sacramento State 111.9 +1.05 14 29
315 Coastal Carolina 112.0 +1.05 13 30
316 Denver 112.2 +1.09 13 29
317 Western Carolina 112.2 +1.09 13 27
318 Eastern Washington 112.2 +1.09 13 30
319 Wright State 112.3 +1.10 12 31
320 North Carolina Central 112.3 +1.11 12 29
321 Austin Peay 112.4 +1.13 12 31
322 Weber State 112.4 +1.13 12 31
323 Delaware 112.5 +1.14 11 34
324 North Dakota State 112.5 +1.15 11 29
325 Georgia State 112.5 +1.15 11 32
326 UL Monroe 112.5 +1.15 10 30
327 Northern Illinois 112.5 +1.16 10 28
328 Charleston Southern 112.7 +1.18 10 30
329 Columbia 112.7 +1.19 10 25
330 New Hampshire 112.7 +1.19 9 30
331 Pacific 112.7 +1.19 9 31
332 Air Force 112.9 +1.23 9 32
333 Charlotte 113.0 +1.25 9 32
334 Buffalo 113.3 +1.30 8 29
335 Howard 113.6 +1.36 8 28
336 Morgan State 113.6 +1.37 8 28
337 Chicago State 113.7 +1.37 7 32
338 Cal State Fullerton 113.7 +1.38 7 30
339 Long Beach State 114.3 +1.49 7 30
340 Pennsylvania 114.3 +1.49 7 27
341 Idaho 114.3 +1.50 6 31
342 West Georgia 114.6 +1.55 6 30
343 Prairie View A&M 114.6 +1.55 6 31
344 Central Arkansas 115.2 +1.66 6 31
345 South Dakota 115.5 +1.73 5 30
346 Le Moyne 115.8 +1.77 5 30
347 Portland 115.9 +1.79 5 30
348 Green Bay 116.3 +1.86 4 31
349 The Citadel 116.3 +1.87 4 26
350 North Florida 116.4 +1.89 4 30
351 Toledo 116.7 +1.94 4 32
352 South Carolina Upstate 116.8 +1.96 3 29
353 Stony Brook 116.9 +1.99 3 31
354 North Dakota 117.2 +2.03 3 30
355 New Orleans 117.4 +2.07 2 31
356 Stetson 117.8 +2.15 2 29
357 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 117.9 +2.18 2 29
358 Maryland Eastern Shore 118.3 +2.25 2 27
359 Canisius 119.1 +2.40 1 31
360 Miami 119.1 +2.40 1 31
361 IU Indianapolis 119.7 +2.52 1 29
362 Oral Roberts 120.4 +2.65 1 26
363 Bellarmine 120.5 +2.65 0 29
364 Mississippi Valley State 124.1 +3.34 0 29