And the only safe place to live is on an Indian reservation. "Ball of Confusion" - The Temptations

Does it predict winners?

Predicts home win: AUC 0.58 (team entering with the better value wins 55% of games)

See the game-by-game scatter on the Predictor page →

Team Distribution

Season-to-date value for every team, with a density curve.

min 38.2% max 65.6% mean 51.7% std 5.3% (n=364)

Team Rankings

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# Team Assisted Field Goal Percentage z Pctl GP
1 Utah 65.6% +2.61 100 33
2 Furman 64.1% +2.34 100 32
3 Virginia 63.6% +2.24 99 32
4 UConn 63.5% +2.22 99 35
5 Creighton 63.1% +2.15 99 36
6 Air Force 62.9% +2.11 99 32
7 Xavier 62.8% +2.08 98 34
8 Gonzaga 62.4% +2.00 98 35
9 Colorado State 62.3% +2.00 98 36
10 William & Mary 62.0% +1.93 98 30
11 Sacred Heart 61.7% +1.87 97 32
12 East Texas A&M 61.6% +1.85 97 31
13 Portland 61.4% +1.83 97 30
14 Liberty 61.4% +1.82 96 32
15 Minnesota 61.3% +1.80 96 32
16 Kansas 61.2% +1.78 96 34
17 Michigan State 61.1% +1.77 96 37
18 UCLA 61.1% +1.76 95 34
19 Chattanooga 61.0% +1.75 95 36
20 Utah State 60.9% +1.73 95 33
21 Cornell 60.7% +1.69 94 27
22 Tennessee 60.6% +1.67 94 38
23 Robert Morris 60.4% +1.63 94 34
24 Stonehill 60.4% +1.63 94 30
25 Loyola Chicago 60.3% +1.61 93 36
26 Mount St. Mary's 60.3% +1.61 93 35
27 Columbia 60.1% +1.58 93 25
28 UC Irvine 60.1% +1.58 93 38
29 Belmont 60.1% +1.57 92 32
30 Kansas State 60.0% +1.57 92 32
31 Green Bay 60.0% +1.55 92 31
32 Iowa 59.8% +1.53 91 33
33 Pepperdine 59.6% +1.48 91 34
34 Santa Clara 59.5% +1.46 91 34
35 DePaul 59.5% +1.46 91 34
36 Lafayette 59.4% +1.45 90 32
37 BYU 59.4% +1.45 90 35
38 Tennessee Tech 59.3% +1.43 90 30
39 Washington State 59.3% +1.43 90 34
40 Queens University 59.3% +1.42 89 32
41 Dayton 59.2% +1.41 89 33
42 Nevada 58.8% +1.33 89 33
43 Charleston 58.7% +1.31 88 32
44 Duke 58.6% +1.30 88 39
45 Indiana 58.4% +1.26 88 32
46 Colorado 58.4% +1.26 88 35
47 UC Santa Barbara 58.3% +1.24 87 32
48 Purdue 58.3% +1.23 87 36
49 Michigan 58.0% +1.17 87 37
50 Akron 57.9% +1.16 87 33
51 Indiana State 57.8% +1.15 86 30
52 Penn State 57.8% +1.14 86 31
53 Mercyhurst 57.8% +1.14 86 28
54 Louisiana Tech 57.5% +1.09 85 29
55 Southern Miss 57.5% +1.08 85 29
56 Utah Valley 57.2% +1.04 85 32
57 Texas Tech 57.2% +1.03 85 37
58 Howard 57.0% +1.00 84 28
59 Princeton 57.0% +1.00 84 28
60 UT Rio Grande Valley 57.0% +0.99 84 27
61 Kentucky 57.0% +0.99 83 36
62 South Carolina State 56.9% +0.98 83 30
63 Davidson 56.9% +0.97 83 32
64 Dartmouth 56.9% +0.97 83 26
65 Florida Atlantic 56.9% +0.97 82 33
66 UC San Diego 56.6% +0.92 82 33
67 Tulane 56.6% +0.92 82 32
68 Lamar 56.6% +0.91 82 30
69 Saint Louis 56.6% +0.91 81 32
70 VCU 56.5% +0.90 81 34
71 USC 56.5% +0.90 81 35
72 West Virginia 56.5% +0.90 80 32
73 Manhattan 56.5% +0.89 80 30
74 Iona 56.4% +0.88 80 34
75 Saint Joseph's 56.2% +0.85 80 35
76 Saint Mary's 56.2% +0.84 79 34
77 Samford 56.2% +0.84 79 31
78 Central Arkansas 56.1% +0.83 79 31
79 Georgia Tech 56.1% +0.83 79 34
80 SMU 56.1% +0.81 78 35
81 UIC 56.0% +0.81 78 29
82 South Alabama 56.0% +0.80 78 30
83 Boise State 55.9% +0.79 77 36
84 Troy 55.9% +0.78 77 32
85 Northwestern 55.8% +0.77 77 33
86 Marist 55.8% +0.76 77 30
87 Pennsylvania 55.7% +0.75 76 27
88 Hofstra 55.6% +0.73 76 31
89 Arizona 55.6% +0.72 76 37
90 George Washington 55.5% +0.71 75 33
91 Alabama 55.4% +0.70 75 37
92 Miami (OH) 55.4% +0.70 75 32
93 Cal State Northridge 55.3% +0.67 75 31
94 Maine 55.3% +0.67 74 32
95 Drake 55.2% +0.65 74 33
96 North Dakota State 55.2% +0.65 74 29
97 Lipscomb 55.1% +0.63 74 33
98 UNC Wilmington 55.1% +0.62 73 33
99 Wofford 55.0% +0.62 73 33
100 Auburn 54.9% +0.60 73 38
101 Wagner 54.8% +0.58 72 26
102 Loyola Maryland 54.8% +0.57 72 30
103 Duquesne 54.7% +0.56 72 31
104 Oregon State 54.7% +0.55 72 32
105 South Carolina 54.7% +0.55 71 32
106 North Carolina Central 54.6% +0.55 71 29
107 Butler 54.5% +0.52 71 35
108 Harvard 54.4% +0.51 71 26
109 Le Moyne 54.3% +0.48 70 30
110 Northern Kentucky 54.2% +0.47 70 31
111 Tulsa 54.2% +0.46 70 31
112 Wisconsin 54.2% +0.46 69 37
113 Brown 54.1% +0.44 69 26
114 South Florida 54.0% +0.43 69 31
115 Campbell 54.0% +0.42 69 30
116 Stanford 53.9% +0.41 68 35
117 Illinois State 53.9% +0.40 68 35
118 Yale 53.8% +0.39 68 29
119 UT Arlington 53.7% +0.37 67 29
120 Fairleigh Dickinson 53.6% +0.36 67 30
121 St. John's 53.6% +0.35 67 36
122 North Florida 53.6% +0.35 67 30
123 Nebraska 53.4% +0.32 66 35
124 Iowa State 53.4% +0.31 66 35
125 Alabama A&M 53.4% +0.30 66 29
126 UAB 53.3% +0.30 66 36
127 Marshall 53.3% +0.30 65 31
128 Northwestern State 53.3% +0.30 65 30
129 Sacramento State 53.3% +0.29 65 29
130 IU Indianapolis 53.2% +0.28 64 29
131 Mississippi State 53.2% +0.28 64 34
132 Ole Miss 53.2% +0.27 64 36
133 Bradley 53.0% +0.24 64 36
134 Northern Iowa 52.9% +0.22 63 32
135 Oregon 52.9% +0.22 63 35
136 Little Rock 52.9% +0.22 63 31
137 Cal Poly 52.9% +0.22 63 34
138 Buffalo 52.9% +0.21 62 29
139 Bethune-Cookman 52.9% +0.21 62 33
140 Baylor 52.8% +0.20 62 34
141 Navy 52.8% +0.20 61 33
142 George Mason 52.7% +0.18 61 35
143 Georgetown 52.7% +0.18 61 34
144 Texas State 52.6% +0.17 61 30
145 UMass Lowell 52.6% +0.16 60 29
146 Florida A&M 52.6% +0.16 60 28
147 Evansville 52.6% +0.16 60 31
148 Eastern Washington 52.6% +0.15 60 30
149 Quinnipiac 52.4% +0.13 59 32
150 Colgate 52.4% +0.13 59 32
151 Northern Colorado 52.4% +0.12 59 32
152 Florida 52.4% +0.12 58 40
153 Bellarmine 52.4% +0.12 58 29
154 Wright State 52.3% +0.11 58 31
155 Northern Illinois 52.3% +0.10 58 28
156 Southern Illinois 52.3% +0.10 57 31
157 The Citadel 52.2% +0.10 57 26
158 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 52.2% +0.09 57 29
159 Charlotte 52.2% +0.08 56 32
160 American University 52.2% +0.08 56 33
161 San Francisco 52.2% +0.08 56 34
162 Arkansas 52.1% +0.08 56 36
163 Fordham 52.1% +0.06 55 32
164 St. Thomas-Minnesota 52.1% +0.06 55 31
165 UCF 52.1% +0.06 55 37
166 Clemson 52.0% +0.06 55 34
167 Montana State 52.0% +0.05 54 32
168 Bucknell 52.0% +0.04 54 33
169 Texas Southern 51.8% +0.02 54 29
170 SIU Edwardsville 51.8% +0.02 53 31
171 Richmond 51.7% -0.01 53 30
172 Binghamton 51.7% -0.01 53 29
173 Northern Arizona 51.7% -0.01 53 30
174 Illinois 51.7% -0.01 52 35
175 Niagara 51.7% -0.01 52 30
176 North Carolina 51.7% -0.02 52 37
177 App State 51.7% -0.02 52 29
178 UL Monroe 51.6% -0.02 51 30
179 Grand Canyon 51.6% -0.03 51 33
180 Oklahoma 51.6% -0.03 51 34
181 NC State 51.6% -0.03 50 31
182 Abilene Christian 51.6% -0.03 50 29
183 Utah Tech 51.6% -0.03 50 31
184 Memphis 51.5% -0.05 50 35
185 Virginia Tech 51.5% -0.05 49 32
186 Oklahoma State 51.4% -0.06 49 35
187 Stephen F. Austin 51.4% -0.06 49 28
188 Rhode Island 51.4% -0.06 48 30
189 Pittsburgh 51.4% -0.06 48 32
190 Youngstown State 51.4% -0.07 48 32
191 Ball State 51.4% -0.07 48 28
192 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 51.4% -0.07 47 30
193 Louisville 51.3% -0.08 47 35
194 Seattle U 51.3% -0.08 47 30
195 Lehigh 51.3% -0.08 47 28
196 Jacksonville 51.3% -0.08 46 31
197 Arkansas State 51.3% -0.09 46 35
198 West Georgia 51.2% -0.10 46 30
199 Providence 51.2% -0.11 45 32
200 UT Martin 51.1% -0.12 45 30
201 Rider 51.1% -0.12 45 33
202 Arizona State 51.1% -0.12 45 33
203 Oakland 51.1% -0.12 44 33
204 UTEP 51.0% -0.13 44 30
205 Fairfield 51.0% -0.14 44 31
206 Cincinnati 51.0% -0.14 44 35
207 Rice 50.9% -0.16 43 31
208 Loyola Marymount 50.9% -0.16 43 31
209 New Mexico 50.9% -0.16 43 34
210 San Diego State 50.8% -0.18 42 30
211 Washington 50.8% -0.18 42 30
212 Delaware 50.8% -0.19 42 34
213 East Tennessee State 50.7% -0.19 42 30
214 Cleveland State 50.7% -0.19 41 33
215 Seton Hall 50.7% -0.19 41 32
216 Saint Francis 50.7% -0.19 41 31
217 Army 50.5% -0.22 40 31
218 Florida Gulf Coast 50.5% -0.23 40 33
219 San José State 50.5% -0.23 40 33
220 Kennesaw State 50.5% -0.24 40 30
221 Central Connecticut 50.4% -0.24 39 30
222 UMBC 50.4% -0.25 39 29
223 Coppin State 50.4% -0.25 39 29
224 Georgia Southern 50.3% -0.26 39 32
225 Vanderbilt 50.2% -0.30 38 33
226 New Orleans 50.1% -0.30 38 31
227 Florida State 50.0% -0.33 38 32
228 Syracuse 49.9% -0.34 37 33
229 Missouri State 49.9% -0.34 37 30
230 McNeese 49.9% -0.35 37 33
231 East Carolina 49.8% -0.37 37 31
232 Missouri 49.7% -0.38 36 34
233 Jackson State 49.7% -0.38 36 34
234 Northeastern 49.7% -0.38 36 32
235 Merrimack 49.7% -0.39 36 33
236 Longwood 49.7% -0.39 35 29
237 Pacific 49.7% -0.39 35 31
238 Omaha 49.7% -0.39 35 33
239 Vermont 49.6% -0.39 34 31
240 Monmouth 49.6% -0.40 34 33
241 UNLV 49.6% -0.41 34 33
242 Austin Peay 49.5% -0.41 34 31
243 Marquette 49.5% -0.42 33 34
244 Milwaukee 49.5% -0.43 33 30
245 Sam Houston 49.4% -0.43 33 29
246 Hawai'i 49.4% -0.44 33 29
247 Ohio 49.4% -0.44 32 31
248 Montana 49.4% -0.44 32 32
249 Long Beach State 49.3% -0.45 32 30
250 Coastal Carolina 49.2% -0.48 31 30
251 Southern 49.2% -0.49 31 29
252 Maryland 49.1% -0.50 31 36
253 South Dakota State 49.0% -0.51 31 29
254 Murray State 49.0% -0.52 30 32
255 Norfolk State 49.0% -0.53 30 32
256 Central Michigan 48.9% -0.53 30 27
257 LSU 48.8% -0.55 29 32
258 Western Carolina 48.8% -0.55 29 27
259 Stony Brook 48.8% -0.56 29 31
260 Boston University 48.8% -0.56 29 31
261 UC Riverside 48.7% -0.56 28 32
262 TCU 48.7% -0.57 28 31
263 Bryant 48.7% -0.57 28 33
264 Idaho 48.7% -0.58 28 31
265 Elon 48.6% -0.58 27 31
266 Portland State 48.6% -0.60 27 29
267 VMI 48.5% -0.61 27 30
268 Chicago State 48.5% -0.61 26 32
269 Grambling 48.5% -0.61 26 31
270 Southern Utah 48.5% -0.62 26 28
271 UNC Greensboro 48.5% -0.62 26 29
272 Drexel 48.4% -0.63 25 32
273 Villanova 48.4% -0.63 25 36
274 Siena 48.3% -0.65 25 32
275 Wyoming 48.2% -0.66 25 31
276 Holy Cross 48.2% -0.66 24 30
277 Massachusetts 48.2% -0.67 24 31
278 Southeast Missouri State 48.2% -0.67 24 30
279 South Carolina Upstate 48.1% -0.68 23 29
280 Morehead State 48.1% -0.68 23 29
281 UTSA 48.1% -0.69 23 29
282 Ohio State 48.1% -0.69 23 32
283 Kansas City 48.1% -0.69 22 29
284 Idaho State 47.9% -0.73 22 27
285 Georgia 47.8% -0.74 22 33
286 Rutgers 47.7% -0.75 21 32
287 Canisius 47.7% -0.75 21 31
288 Florida International 47.6% -0.78 21 31
289 Purdue Fort Wayne 47.6% -0.79 21 30
290 UC Davis 47.5% -0.80 20 30
291 Charleston Southern 47.5% -0.80 20 30
292 Prairie View A&M 47.5% -0.80 20 31
293 Texas A&M 47.4% -0.82 20 34
294 Tennessee State 47.3% -0.84 19 30
295 Texas 47.3% -0.84 19 35
296 Eastern Michigan 47.2% -0.86 19 31
297 Miami 47.0% -0.89 18 31
298 Eastern Kentucky 47.0% -0.90 18 30
299 Presbyterian 46.7% -0.95 18 30
300 Mercer 46.6% -0.98 18 31
301 Houston Christian 46.4% -1.00 17 30
302 Maryland Eastern Shore 46.4% -1.01 17 27
303 New Hampshire 46.3% -1.02 17 30
304 Tarleton State 46.3% -1.02 17 29
305 SE Louisiana 46.2% -1.05 16 30
306 Toledo 46.0% -1.08 16 32
307 Eastern Illinois 46.0% -1.09 16 28
308 Wake Forest 45.8% -1.12 15 32
309 San Diego 45.8% -1.12 15 32
310 UAlbany 45.7% -1.14 15 31
311 UNC Asheville 45.6% -1.15 15 28
312 California Baptist 45.6% -1.16 14 32
313 Kent State 45.6% -1.16 14 34
314 New Mexico State 45.6% -1.16 14 29
315 Middle Tennessee 45.5% -1.18 13 32
316 Western Michigan 45.4% -1.20 13 31
317 James Madison 45.4% -1.20 13 29
318 Stetson 45.4% -1.20 13 29
319 Saint Peter's 45.3% -1.21 12 27
320 Louisiana 45.3% -1.21 12 32
321 Boston College 45.3% -1.21 12 31
322 High Point 45.2% -1.23 12 33
323 Valparaiso 45.2% -1.23 11 32
324 North Dakota 45.1% -1.24 11 30
325 Houston 45.1% -1.24 11 40
326 La Salle 45.1% -1.24 10 32
327 Incarnate Word 45.0% -1.27 10 32
328 Delaware State 44.8% -1.30 10 26
329 North Texas 44.7% -1.32 10 34
330 Georgia State 44.7% -1.33 9 32
331 Alabama State 44.7% -1.33 9 35
332 Wichita State 44.6% -1.34 9 33
333 North Carolina A&T 44.4% -1.39 9 31
334 Radford 44.3% -1.41 8 31
335 Long Island University 44.2% -1.42 8 31
336 Notre Dame 44.2% -1.42 8 33
337 Western Kentucky 44.1% -1.44 7 30
338 Fresno State 44.0% -1.46 7 32
339 Detroit Mercy 43.9% -1.48 7 31
340 Winthrop 43.8% -1.49 7 31
341 Bowling Green 43.7% -1.51 6 29
342 Morgan State 43.7% -1.52 6 28
343 Jacksonville State 43.7% -1.52 6 33
344 Old Dominion 43.6% -1.53 6 33
345 Southern Indiana 43.6% -1.54 5 28
346 Alcorn State 43.5% -1.55 5 31
347 Denver 43.5% -1.55 5 29
348 St. Bonaventure 42.9% -1.67 4 33
349 Nicholls 42.8% -1.69 4 30
350 Weber State 42.7% -1.71 4 31
351 Lindenwood 42.3% -1.78 4 30
352 North Alabama 42.3% -1.78 3 33
353 Hampton 42.2% -1.80 3 30
354 NJIT 41.9% -1.86 3 30
355 Mississippi Valley State 41.7% -1.89 2 29
356 Cal State Fullerton 41.5% -1.93 2 30
357 Towson 41.4% -1.95 2 32
358 California 41.2% -1.99 2 33
359 Temple 40.8% -2.05 1 31
360 Oral Roberts 39.8% -2.24 1 26
361 South Dakota 39.5% -2.31 1 30
362 Gardner-Webb 39.4% -2.32 1 31
363 Western Illinois 39.2% -2.36 0 28
364 Cal State Bakersfield 38.2% -2.56 0 31