Trouble's gonna come to you "Your Time is Gonna Come" - Led Zeppelin

Game Outcomes

Each point is a completed game — x: home team's season-to-date value entering the game, y: away team's. home win home loss

Predicts home win: AUC 0.66 (team entering with the better value wins 62% of games)

Based on 5508 of 5727 completed games where both teams entered with a season-to-date value.

Team Distribution

Season-to-date value for every team, with a density curve.

min 41.4% max 58.3% mean 49.9% std 2.6% (n=363)

Team Rankings

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# Team Total Rebound Percentage z Pctl GP
1 Saint Mary's 58.3% +3.18 100 33
2 Purdue 58.0% +3.09 100 39
3 Arizona 56.6% +2.55 99 36
4 UConn 56.3% +2.45 99 40
5 Texas A&M 56.0% +2.30 99 36
6 Towson 55.8% +2.23 99 33
7 High Point 55.4% +2.09 98 34
8 Illinois 55.2% +2.03 98 38
9 Drexel 55.2% +2.02 98 31
10 Cincinnati 55.1% +1.96 98 37
11 Colorado 55.0% +1.95 97 37
12 North Carolina 54.9% +1.89 97 37
13 Longwood 54.6% +1.80 97 32
14 Santa Clara 54.6% +1.78 96 32
15 Boise State 54.5% +1.74 96 31
16 Gonzaga 54.5% +1.74 96 34
17 Washington State 54.4% +1.69 96 35
18 Baylor 54.2% +1.65 95 34
19 BYU 54.2% +1.63 95 34
20 Florida 54.1% +1.62 95 36
21 Western Illinois 54.1% +1.61 94 29
22 Mississippi State 53.9% +1.52 94 35
23 UMass Lowell 53.9% +1.51 94 29
24 Louisiana Tech 53.8% +1.50 94 29
25 Morehead State 53.8% +1.49 93 31
26 Duke 53.7% +1.46 93 36
27 Jacksonville State 53.7% +1.44 93 29
28 St. John's 53.6% +1.42 93 33
29 Sacramento State 53.5% +1.38 92 32
30 Seton Hall 53.4% +1.33 92 37
31 TCU 53.4% +1.33 92 34
32 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 53.4% +1.32 91 29
33 Missouri State 53.3% +1.30 91 33
34 SMU 53.3% +1.29 91 32
35 Creighton 53.1% +1.24 91 35
36 UC Irvine 53.1% +1.22 90 33
37 George Mason 53.0% +1.20 90 31
38 Western Carolina 53.0% +1.19 90 29
39 Massachusetts 53.0% +1.19 90 31
40 California Baptist 53.0% +1.16 89 31
41 Charleston 52.8% +1.11 89 34
42 Grand Canyon 52.8% +1.10 89 34
43 Seattle U 52.8% +1.10 88 36
44 Florida Atlantic 52.8% +1.09 88 34
45 Oklahoma 52.7% +1.08 88 32
46 Cal State Northridge 52.7% +1.06 88 32
47 New Mexico 52.7% +1.05 87 34
48 Indiana State 52.7% +1.05 87 38
49 Pittsburgh 52.6% +1.05 87 33
50 San Francisco 52.6% +1.02 86 33
51 Alabama 52.6% +1.02 86 37
52 Youngstown State 52.5% +1.00 86 28
53 App State 52.5% +1.00 86 32
54 Binghamton 52.5% +0.98 85 28
55 Auburn 52.4% +0.97 85 35
56 Tennessee 52.4% +0.96 85 36
57 Akron 52.4% +0.95 85 33
58 Wisconsin 52.4% +0.95 84 36
59 Houston 52.4% +0.94 84 37
60 Kansas City 52.3% +0.94 84 29
61 James Madison 52.3% +0.93 83 35
62 San Diego State 52.3% +0.91 83 35
63 UCF 52.2% +0.86 83 33
64 Mount St. Mary's 52.2% +0.86 83 32
65 Wichita State 52.2% +0.86 82 33
66 Sam Houston 52.1% +0.86 82 31
67 South Carolina 52.1% +0.85 82 34
68 Arkansas State 52.1% +0.85 81 37
69 Quinnipiac 52.1% +0.84 81 33
70 UAB 52.1% +0.84 81 34
71 Howard 52.0% +0.82 81 33
72 Bowling Green 52.0% +0.81 80 32
73 UT Arlington 52.0% +0.80 80 32
74 South Carolina State 52.0% +0.80 80 30
75 Northeastern 52.0% +0.80 80 32
76 Western Kentucky 52.0% +0.79 79 31
77 Ohio State 51.9% +0.78 79 36
78 Yale 51.9% +0.75 79 31
79 Jacksonville 51.9% +0.75 78 30
80 Georgia Tech 51.8% +0.74 78 32
81 Loyola Chicago 51.8% +0.73 78 32
82 Canisius 51.8% +0.73 78 31
83 Milwaukee 51.8% +0.72 77 33
84 Kansas State 51.7% +0.70 77 34
85 Western Michigan 51.7% +0.69 77 31
86 Wofford 51.7% +0.69 77 29
87 Utah 51.7% +0.69 76 37
88 Long Beach State 51.7% +0.68 76 34
89 Little Rock 51.6% +0.67 76 34
90 Brown 51.6% +0.66 75 30
91 Troy 51.6% +0.66 75 29
92 Clemson 51.6% +0.66 75 36
93 East Tennessee State 51.6% +0.65 75 33
94 Rider 51.6% +0.63 74 31
95 Colgate 51.6% +0.63 74 34
96 VCU 51.5% +0.61 74 38
97 Minnesota 51.5% +0.60 73 34
98 Wright State 51.5% +0.60 73 30
99 Xavier 51.4% +0.59 73 34
100 UL Monroe 51.4% +0.58 73 28
101 Saint Peter's 51.4% +0.57 72 32
102 Loyola Marymount 51.4% +0.57 72 30
103 Utah State 51.4% +0.56 72 33
104 UT Martin 51.3% +0.56 72 28
105 Kansas 51.3% +0.55 71 33
106 Drake 51.3% +0.53 71 34
107 Wake Forest 51.2% +0.51 71 35
108 Eastern Washington 51.2% +0.51 70 30
109 Boston University 51.2% +0.50 70 32
110 Notre Dame 51.2% +0.50 70 33
111 Stephen F. Austin 51.2% +0.50 70 31
112 American University 51.2% +0.49 69 31
113 Alcorn State 51.2% +0.49 69 31
114 UC Santa Barbara 51.2% +0.48 69 29
115 North Dakota 51.1% +0.47 69 29
116 Nevada 51.1% +0.46 68 33
117 Rhode Island 51.1% +0.45 68 31
118 Hawai'i 51.1% +0.45 68 32
119 McNeese 51.1% +0.44 67 30
120 Bradley 51.0% +0.44 67 34
121 Eastern Kentucky 51.0% +0.43 67 28
122 UTSA 51.0% +0.41 67 31
123 North Texas 51.0% +0.41 66 32
124 Illinois State 51.0% +0.41 66 31
125 Pennsylvania 50.9% +0.40 66 27
126 Oakland 50.9% +0.39 65 36
127 Central Connecticut 50.9% +0.39 65 29
128 Robert Morris 50.9% +0.37 65 30
129 Florida Gulf Coast 50.8% +0.36 65 29
130 Texas Tech 50.8% +0.36 64 34
131 Michigan State 50.8% +0.35 64 35
132 Furman 50.8% +0.35 64 30
133 Lamar 50.8% +0.34 64 31
134 Fordham 50.7% +0.33 63 33
135 Boston College 50.7% +0.32 63 36
136 Siena 50.7% +0.32 63 32
137 Coastal Carolina 50.7% +0.32 62 29
138 Texas State 50.7% +0.31 62 33
139 Maryland 50.7% +0.31 62 33
140 Jackson State 50.7% +0.30 62 32
141 Delaware 50.7% +0.30 61 32
142 Miami 50.6% +0.29 61 32
143 St. Bonaventure 50.6% +0.28 61 33
144 South Dakota State 50.6% +0.28 60 32
145 Dayton 50.6% +0.27 60 33
146 Idaho State 50.6% +0.27 60 32
147 Villanova 50.6% +0.26 60 34
148 Chattanooga 50.6% +0.26 59 31
149 Kent State 50.6% +0.25 59 32
150 Southern Illinois 50.6% +0.25 59 31
151 Kentucky 50.5% +0.25 59 33
152 Saint Joseph's 50.5% +0.25 58 35
153 Providence 50.5% +0.25 58 35
154 California 50.5% +0.25 58 32
155 Iowa State 50.5% +0.24 57 37
156 Texas 50.4% +0.22 57 34
157 Delaware State 50.4% +0.21 57 32
158 Nebraska 50.4% +0.20 57 34
159 LSU 50.4% +0.20 56 33
160 Utah Valley 50.4% +0.19 56 30
161 Michigan 50.4% +0.19 56 32
162 Montana 50.4% +0.18 56 33
163 The Citadel 50.4% +0.18 55 29
164 Virginia Tech 50.4% +0.18 55 34
165 Oregon 50.3% +0.18 55 36
166 Memphis 50.3% +0.17 54 32
167 Northern Iowa 50.3% +0.17 54 32
168 SE Louisiana 50.3% +0.16 54 29
169 Pepperdine 50.3% +0.16 54 30
170 Loyola Maryland 50.3% +0.15 53 31
171 South Dakota 50.2% +0.14 53 29
172 UCLA 50.2% +0.13 53 32
173 Cal State Bakersfield 50.2% +0.13 52 30
174 Wyoming 50.2% +0.13 52 30
175 UC Riverside 50.2% +0.13 52 32
176 Ball State 50.2% +0.12 52 29
177 Toledo 50.2% +0.11 51 32
178 Green Bay 50.2% +0.10 51 30
179 Northern Colorado 50.1% +0.09 51 31
180 Colorado State 50.1% +0.08 51 34
181 Marshall 50.1% +0.08 50 32
182 Georgetown 50.1% +0.07 50 32
183 East Carolina 50.1% +0.07 50 32
184 Indiana 50.1% +0.07 49 33
185 Incarnate Word 50.0% +0.06 49 29
186 Columbia 50.0% +0.06 49 24
187 SIU Edwardsville 50.0% +0.04 49 30
188 North Dakota State 50.0% +0.03 48 29
189 UAlbany 49.9% +0.01 48 31
190 Washington 49.9% -0.00 48 32
191 Saint Francis 49.8% -0.01 48 28
192 Duquesne 49.8% -0.02 47 36
193 UC San Diego 49.8% -0.02 47 31
194 Vermont 49.8% -0.02 47 33
195 Alabama A&M 49.8% -0.02 46 35
196 Louisville 49.8% -0.03 46 32
197 Oklahoma State 49.8% -0.03 46 32
198 Samford 49.7% -0.05 46 33
199 UNC Greensboro 49.6% -0.10 45 30
200 Gardner-Webb 49.6% -0.11 45 30
201 Wagner 49.5% -0.13 45 31
202 Norfolk State 49.5% -0.13 44 31
203 South Florida 49.5% -0.14 44 33
204 Rice 49.5% -0.14 44 31
205 Charlotte 49.4% -0.17 44 30
206 Army 49.4% -0.17 43 30
207 Portland State 49.4% -0.19 43 29
208 NC State 49.4% -0.19 43 41
209 Stony Brook 49.4% -0.20 43 34
210 Winthrop 49.4% -0.20 42 29
211 George Washington 49.4% -0.20 42 31
212 Princeton 49.3% -0.21 42 27
213 UNLV 49.3% -0.22 41 32
214 North Alabama 49.3% -0.22 41 30
215 Southern Miss 49.3% -0.23 41 30
216 Butler 49.3% -0.23 41 32
217 Davidson 49.2% -0.25 40 30
218 Murray State 49.2% -0.25 40 31
219 Marist 49.2% -0.26 40 31
220 UNC Wilmington 49.2% -0.26 40 28
221 Liberty 49.2% -0.26 39 29
222 Navy 49.2% -0.27 39 30
223 Bucknell 49.1% -0.28 39 33
224 Texas Southern 49.1% -0.29 38 32
225 Mercer 49.1% -0.31 38 30
226 Stanford 49.0% -0.32 38 32
227 Denver 49.0% -0.32 38 30
228 UC Davis 49.0% -0.32 37 31
229 St. Thomas-Minnesota 49.0% -0.33 37 30
230 Alabama State 49.0% -0.33 37 29
231 Central Michigan 49.0% -0.34 36 31
232 Saint Louis 49.0% -0.35 36 32
233 Southern Indiana 49.0% -0.35 36 29
234 Iowa 48.9% -0.35 36 34
235 Monmouth 48.9% -0.37 35 33
236 Weber State 48.9% -0.38 35 29
237 North Carolina Central 48.8% -0.40 35 27
238 Omaha 48.8% -0.40 35 29
239 Radford 48.8% -0.40 34 31
240 Lehigh 48.8% -0.40 34 30
241 Arkansas 48.7% -0.44 34 33
242 Cornell 48.7% -0.44 33 28
243 Cleveland State 48.7% -0.46 33 35
244 Stetson 48.7% -0.46 33 32
245 Kennesaw State 48.7% -0.46 33 28
246 Presbyterian 48.6% -0.48 32 30
247 Tarleton State 48.6% -0.49 32 32
248 UNC Asheville 48.6% -0.49 32 31
249 Northern Illinois 48.6% -0.49 31 29
250 USC 48.6% -0.50 31 33
251 Louisiana 48.5% -0.52 31 31
252 New Hampshire 48.5% -0.52 31 30
253 Oregon State 48.5% -0.53 30 31
254 West Virginia 48.5% -0.53 30 32
255 Middle Tennessee 48.5% -0.54 30 31
256 Niagara 48.5% -0.54 30 31
257 Northwestern 48.4% -0.55 29 34
258 Georgia 48.4% -0.55 29 37
259 Tennessee State 48.4% -0.55 29 29
260 Nicholls 48.4% -0.55 28 31
261 Utah Tech 48.4% -0.56 28 30
262 Rutgers 48.4% -0.57 28 32
263 Virginia 48.4% -0.57 28 34
264 Austin Peay 48.3% -0.58 27 32
265 Georgia State 48.3% -0.59 27 29
266 Queens University 48.3% -0.59 27 31
267 Ohio 48.3% -0.59 27 32
268 Northern Kentucky 48.3% -0.59 26 31
269 Charleston Southern 48.3% -0.60 26 27
270 Harvard 48.3% -0.61 26 26
271 Belmont 48.2% -0.62 25 32
272 Fairfield 48.1% -0.67 25 36
273 Long Island University 48.1% -0.67 25 29
274 William & Mary 48.1% -0.67 25 31
275 UMBC 48.1% -0.67 24 31
276 Eastern Illinois 48.1% -0.68 24 27
277 Vanderbilt 48.1% -0.68 24 32
278 Buffalo 48.0% -0.70 23 30
279 Dartmouth 48.0% -0.72 23 25
280 Central Arkansas 48.0% -0.72 23 30
281 Grambling 48.0% -0.72 23 33
282 New Mexico State 47.9% -0.74 22 28
283 Lipscomb 47.9% -0.75 22 30
284 Temple 47.9% -0.76 22 35
285 Tulsa 47.9% -0.76 22 30
286 Elon 47.9% -0.77 21 30
287 UTEP 47.8% -0.78 21 31
288 Eastern Michigan 47.8% -0.78 21 29
289 Marquette 47.8% -0.81 20 37
290 Evansville 47.7% -0.82 20 34
291 Houston Christian 47.7% -0.83 20 27
292 Bethune-Cookman 47.7% -0.83 20 32
293 Hofstra 47.6% -0.85 19 32
294 Hampton 47.6% -0.87 19 30
295 Florida A&M 47.6% -0.88 19 27
296 Campbell 47.6% -0.88 19 29
297 La Salle 47.6% -0.88 18 32
298 Chicago State 47.5% -0.90 18 29
299 Ole Miss 47.5% -0.90 18 32
300 Florida State 47.5% -0.91 17 33
301 Cal State Fullerton 47.4% -0.93 17 30
302 Fresno State 47.4% -0.94 17 32
303 San Diego 47.4% -0.94 17 31
304 Fairleigh Dickinson 47.4% -0.95 16 30
305 Portland 47.4% -0.95 16 31
306 Holy Cross 47.4% -0.95 16 32
307 Maine 47.3% -0.96 15 31
308 Georgia Southern 47.3% -0.98 15 33
309 Northwestern State 47.3% -0.98 15 30
310 Lafayette 47.2% -1.01 15 31
311 UIC 47.2% -1.03 14 32
312 Sacred Heart 47.1% -1.05 14 30
313 Iona 47.0% -1.10 14 33
314 Southern 47.0% -1.11 14 29
315 Richmond 46.9% -1.13 13 33
316 Maryland Eastern Shore 46.8% -1.15 13 25
317 Southern Utah 46.8% -1.16 13 29
318 VMI 46.8% -1.16 12 29
319 Abilene Christian 46.8% -1.17 12 33
320 NJIT 46.7% -1.21 12 27
321 North Florida 46.7% -1.21 12 29
322 Idaho 46.7% -1.22 11 30
323 Penn State 46.6% -1.23 11 33
324 Le Moyne 46.6% -1.23 11 29
325 IU Indianapolis 46.5% -1.28 10 29
326 Bryant 46.4% -1.31 10 31
327 Morgan State 46.4% -1.32 10 28
328 Manhattan 46.4% -1.33 10 29
329 Syracuse 46.2% -1.38 9 31
330 Old Dominion 46.2% -1.39 9 31
331 Air Force 46.2% -1.40 9 31
332 Miami (OH) 46.2% -1.41 9 30
333 South Alabama 46.1% -1.42 8 29
334 Northern Arizona 46.1% -1.42 8 33
335 Purdue Fort Wayne 46.1% -1.44 8 34
336 Valparaiso 46.0% -1.45 7 31
337 Montana State 45.9% -1.52 7 32
338 Lindenwood 45.9% -1.53 7 28
339 Oral Roberts 45.8% -1.54 7 28
340 Stonehill 45.8% -1.56 6 31
341 Tennessee Tech 45.6% -1.61 6 28
342 Bellarmine 45.6% -1.61 6 28
343 New Orleans 45.6% -1.62 6 29
344 San José State 45.5% -1.66 5 31
345 Missouri 45.5% -1.66 5 32
346 Tulane 45.4% -1.72 5 30
347 Southeast Missouri State 45.3% -1.73 4 27
348 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 45.2% -1.77 4 27
349 Mississippi Valley State 45.1% -1.83 4 31
350 Arizona State 45.0% -1.83 4 32
351 South Carolina Upstate 45.0% -1.85 3 27
352 Hartford 44.9% -1.88 3 1
353 DePaul 44.9% -1.90 3 32
354 UT Rio Grande Valley 44.8% -1.91 2 29
355 Detroit Mercy 44.7% -1.95 2 32
356 Merrimack 44.6% -2.01 2 31
357 Cal Poly 44.5% -2.04 2 31
358 Prairie View A&M 44.2% -2.14 1 29
359 East Texas A&M 44.0% -2.24 1 30
360 North Carolina A&T 43.9% -2.29 1 32
361 Florida International 43.6% -2.40 1 32
362 Coppin State 43.3% -2.50 0 28
363 Pacific 41.4% -3.21 0 30