The tide is high, but I'm holding on. "The Tide is High" - Blondie
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Turnover Rate

Share of possessions that end in a turnover.

Season turnovers ÷ season possessions. Possessions aren't in the box score, so they're estimated as FGA − OffReb + TO + 0.475×FTA (the standard estimator).

Lower is better  ·  league avg 17.2%  ·  as of 2024-04-09

Game Outcomes

Each point is a completed game — x: home team's season-to-date value entering the game, y: away team's. home win home loss

Predicts home win: AUC 0.61 (team entering with the better value wins 58% of games)

Based on 5508 of 5727 completed games where both teams entered with a season-to-date value.

Team Distribution

Season-to-date value for every team, with a density curve.

min 12.0% max 27.1% mean 17.2% std 2.1% (n=363)

Team Rankings

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# Team Turnover Rate z Pctl GP
1 Princeton 12.0% -2.51 100 27
2 Richmond 12.8% -2.13 100 33
3 UNC Wilmington 12.8% -2.12 99 28
4 Virginia 13.1% -1.95 99 34
5 Iowa 13.2% -1.93 99 34
6 Austin Peay 13.3% -1.84 99 32
7 Northwestern 13.4% -1.82 98 34
8 Pittsburgh 13.4% -1.80 98 33
9 Drake 13.7% -1.68 98 34
10 Georgia State 13.7% -1.65 98 29
11 Houston 13.8% -1.63 97 37
12 North Carolina A&T 13.8% -1.63 97 32
13 NC State 13.8% -1.61 97 41
14 McNeese 13.9% -1.56 96 30
15 Denver 14.0% -1.55 96 30
16 Vermont 14.0% -1.54 96 33
17 New Mexico 14.0% -1.52 96 34
18 Gonzaga 14.1% -1.50 95 34
19 Temple 14.1% -1.48 95 35
20 North Carolina 14.1% -1.47 95 37
21 Texas A&M 14.1% -1.45 94 36
22 Ohio 14.2% -1.44 94 32
23 La Salle 14.2% -1.43 94 32
24 Lipscomb 14.2% -1.41 94 30
25 Yale 14.3% -1.40 93 31
26 Charleston 14.3% -1.39 93 34
27 UC Riverside 14.3% -1.38 93 32
28 Oral Roberts 14.3% -1.38 93 28
29 Kentucky 14.3% -1.38 92 33
30 Marquette 14.3% -1.37 92 37
31 Murray State 14.4% -1.35 92 31
32 UC San Diego 14.4% -1.35 91 31
33 Duke 14.4% -1.33 91 36
34 Omaha 14.5% -1.29 91 29
35 UConn 14.5% -1.28 91 40
36 Bellarmine 14.5% -1.28 90 28
37 Tennessee 14.6% -1.26 90 36
38 North Alabama 14.6% -1.25 90 30
39 Villanova 14.7% -1.21 90 34
40 Western Carolina 14.7% -1.20 89 29
41 Purdue Fort Wayne 14.7% -1.19 89 34
42 Weber State 14.7% -1.16 89 29
43 Clemson 14.8% -1.16 88 36
44 Oregon 14.8% -1.16 88 36
45 Arizona State 14.8% -1.15 88 32
46 St. Thomas-Minnesota 14.8% -1.14 88 30
47 Cleveland State 14.8% -1.14 87 35
48 Iona 14.9% -1.08 87 33
49 Illinois 14.9% -1.08 87 38
50 Wisconsin 14.9% -1.07 86 36
51 James Madison 14.9% -1.07 86 35
52 Michigan State 15.0% -1.07 86 35
53 Old Dominion 15.0% -1.04 86 31
54 UT Martin 15.1% -1.00 85 28
55 North Dakota 15.1% -1.00 85 29
56 Toledo 15.1% -1.00 85 32
57 Nevada 15.1% -0.98 85 33
58 Tulane 15.1% -0.98 84 30
59 Eastern Illinois 15.1% -0.98 84 27
60 Stony Brook 15.2% -0.97 84 34
61 Montana 15.2% -0.97 83 33
62 Northern Iowa 15.2% -0.96 83 32
63 Auburn 15.2% -0.94 83 35
64 App State 15.3% -0.91 83 32
65 Vanderbilt 15.3% -0.91 82 32
66 Monmouth 15.3% -0.88 82 33
67 BYU 15.3% -0.88 82 34
68 Creighton 15.3% -0.88 81 35
69 Iowa State 15.3% -0.88 81 37
70 Boston College 15.4% -0.87 81 36
71 Colorado State 15.4% -0.86 81 34
72 Butler 15.4% -0.85 80 32
73 Wake Forest 15.4% -0.84 80 35
74 Youngstown State 15.4% -0.83 80 28
75 South Carolina 15.5% -0.82 80 34
76 Utah State 15.5% -0.82 79 33
77 Fairfield 15.5% -0.81 79 36
78 Ohio State 15.5% -0.79 79 36
79 UTSA 15.5% -0.78 78 31
80 SIU Edwardsville 15.5% -0.78 78 30
81 Charlotte 15.6% -0.77 78 30
82 Ole Miss 15.6% -0.73 78 32
83 Navy 15.7% -0.72 77 30
84 San José State 15.7% -0.72 77 31
85 Wagner 15.7% -0.72 77 31
86 South Florida 15.7% -0.71 77 33
87 St. John's 15.7% -0.71 76 33
88 Florida 15.7% -0.70 76 36
89 Penn State 15.7% -0.69 76 33
90 Queens University 15.7% -0.69 75 31
91 Northern Colorado 15.7% -0.68 75 31
92 Hofstra 15.7% -0.68 75 32
93 Nebraska 15.8% -0.64 75 34
94 Oakland 15.8% -0.64 74 36
95 Washington 15.9% -0.62 74 32
96 Alabama 15.9% -0.61 74 37
97 Valparaiso 15.9% -0.61 73 31
98 Syracuse 15.9% -0.61 73 31
99 Bryant 15.9% -0.61 73 31
100 Furman 15.9% -0.60 73 30
101 Arkansas State 15.9% -0.59 72 37
102 High Point 16.0% -0.58 72 34
103 Massachusetts 16.0% -0.56 72 31
104 Georgia 16.0% -0.56 72 37
105 Utah 16.0% -0.56 71 37
106 Delaware 16.0% -0.55 71 32
107 Kennesaw State 16.0% -0.54 71 28
108 Arizona 16.0% -0.54 70 36
109 Eastern Kentucky 16.1% -0.53 70 28
110 Dayton 16.1% -0.53 70 33
111 Saint Mary's 16.1% -0.51 70 33
112 Florida Atlantic 16.1% -0.51 69 34
113 Gardner-Webb 16.1% -0.50 69 30
114 UNLV 16.1% -0.50 69 32
115 William & Mary 16.1% -0.49 69 31
116 Stetson 16.2% -0.49 68 32
117 Radford 16.2% -0.48 68 31
118 Liberty 16.2% -0.48 68 29
119 Alabama State 16.2% -0.46 67 29
120 California 16.2% -0.45 67 32
121 Virginia Tech 16.2% -0.45 67 34
122 San Diego State 16.2% -0.45 67 35
123 Indiana State 16.2% -0.44 66 38
124 Davidson 16.2% -0.44 66 30
125 Colgate 16.3% -0.44 66 34
126 South Alabama 16.3% -0.43 65 29
127 Bowling Green 16.3% -0.43 65 32
128 East Carolina 16.3% -0.42 65 32
129 Xavier 16.3% -0.42 65 34
130 St. Bonaventure 16.3% -0.41 64 33
131 Loyola Marymount 16.3% -0.41 64 30
132 Pepperdine 16.3% -0.41 64 30
133 Arkansas 16.3% -0.40 64 33
134 Florida State 16.3% -0.40 63 33
135 North Florida 16.3% -0.40 63 29
136 Washington State 16.3% -0.39 63 35
137 Portland State 16.3% -0.39 62 29
138 South Carolina Upstate 16.4% -0.38 62 27
139 UCLA 16.4% -0.37 62 32
140 UNC Greensboro 16.4% -0.37 62 30
141 NJIT 16.4% -0.35 61 27
142 Texas Tech 16.4% -0.34 61 34
143 Drexel 16.5% -0.34 61 31
144 Marshall 16.5% -0.34 60 32
145 Purdue 16.5% -0.33 60 39
146 Boise State 16.5% -0.33 60 31
147 Holy Cross 16.5% -0.33 60 32
148 SMU 16.5% -0.32 59 32
149 Tarleton State 16.5% -0.31 59 32
150 Kansas 16.5% -0.31 59 33
151 Wright State 16.6% -0.28 59 30
152 Rutgers 16.6% -0.28 58 32
153 Mercer 16.6% -0.27 58 30
154 New Hampshire 16.6% -0.27 58 30
155 Saint Joseph's 16.6% -0.27 57 35
156 South Dakota State 16.6% -0.25 57 32
157 Pennsylvania 16.6% -0.25 57 27
158 Evansville 16.6% -0.25 57 34
159 UC Irvine 16.7% -0.22 56 33
160 Le Moyne 16.7% -0.22 56 29
161 East Texas A&M 16.7% -0.21 56 30
162 Central Connecticut 16.7% -0.20 56 29
163 Southern Illinois 16.7% -0.20 55 31
164 Belmont 16.7% -0.20 55 32
165 Montana State 16.8% -0.20 55 32
166 Maine 16.8% -0.17 54 31
167 Pacific 16.8% -0.17 54 30
168 UAB 16.8% -0.16 54 34
169 Idaho State 16.8% -0.16 54 32
170 Southern Utah 16.8% -0.15 53 29
171 Lehigh 16.9% -0.14 53 30
172 Presbyterian 16.9% -0.13 53 30
173 Missouri 16.9% -0.13 52 32
174 Louisiana 16.9% -0.13 52 31
175 Sacred Heart 16.9% -0.13 52 30
176 Saint Louis 16.9% -0.13 52 32
177 Texas 16.9% -0.13 51 34
178 North Dakota State 16.9% -0.13 51 29
179 San Francisco 16.9% -0.13 51 33
180 Akron 16.9% -0.10 51 33
181 Eastern Michigan 17.0% -0.07 50 29
182 Wofford 17.0% -0.07 50 29
183 Cornell 17.0% -0.06 50 28
184 Chattanooga 17.0% -0.06 49 31
185 George Washington 17.0% -0.05 49 31
186 Alcorn State 17.1% -0.03 49 31
187 UNC Asheville 17.1% -0.03 49 31
188 Portland 17.1% -0.03 48 31
189 Quinnipiac 17.1% -0.02 48 33
190 Illinois State 17.1% -0.01 48 31
191 Fairleigh Dickinson 17.1% -0.01 48 30
192 Long Beach State 17.1% -0.01 47 34
193 Miami 17.1% -0.01 47 32
194 Kent State 17.2% +0.02 47 32
195 Miami (OH) 17.3% +0.05 46 30
196 Rice 17.3% +0.08 46 31
197 New Orleans 17.3% +0.08 46 29
198 Cincinnati 17.3% +0.09 46 37
199 Duquesne 17.4% +0.10 45 36
200 American University 17.4% +0.10 45 31
201 Southeast Missouri State 17.4% +0.11 45 27
202 Northern Kentucky 17.4% +0.11 44 31
203 Missouri State 17.4% +0.12 44 33
204 Idaho 17.4% +0.12 44 30
205 Maryland 17.4% +0.13 44 33
206 UMBC 17.4% +0.14 43 31
207 Niagara 17.5% +0.15 43 31
208 Lafayette 17.5% +0.15 43 31
209 Indiana 17.5% +0.17 43 33
210 Little Rock 17.5% +0.17 42 34
211 Central Michigan 17.5% +0.18 42 31
212 Providence 17.5% +0.18 42 35
213 Baylor 17.5% +0.19 41 34
214 Lindenwood 17.6% +0.19 41 28
215 California Baptist 17.6% +0.21 41 31
216 Minnesota 17.6% +0.23 41 34
217 North Carolina Central 17.6% +0.24 40 27
218 Boston University 17.7% +0.24 40 32
219 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 17.7% +0.24 40 29
220 Abilene Christian 17.7% +0.25 40 33
221 North Texas 17.7% +0.25 39 32
222 Florida Gulf Coast 17.7% +0.26 39 29
223 Georgia Tech 17.7% +0.28 39 32
224 Tennessee Tech 17.7% +0.29 38 28
225 Grand Canyon 17.8% +0.29 38 34
226 Wichita State 17.8% +0.29 38 33
227 Prairie View A&M 17.8% +0.29 38 29
228 UAlbany 17.8% +0.30 37 31
229 UIC 17.8% +0.30 37 32
230 Stanford 17.8% +0.31 37 32
231 New Mexico State 17.8% +0.31 36 28
232 Rider 17.8% +0.31 36 31
233 Elon 17.8% +0.33 36 30
234 Harvard 17.8% +0.33 36 26
235 Columbia 17.8% +0.33 35 24
236 Samford 17.9% +0.34 35 33
237 Kansas City 17.9% +0.37 35 29
238 TCU 17.9% +0.38 35 34
239 Hampton 17.9% +0.38 34 30
240 Milwaukee 18.0% +0.39 34 33
241 USC 18.0% +0.39 34 33
242 Georgetown 18.0% +0.40 33 32
243 The Citadel 18.0% +0.41 33 29
244 Lamar 18.0% +0.41 33 31
245 UCF 18.0% +0.41 33 33
246 Memphis 18.0% +0.42 32 32
247 George Mason 18.0% +0.43 32 31
248 Northern Arizona 18.1% +0.44 32 33
249 Tulsa 18.1% +0.44 31 30
250 Oklahoma 18.1% +0.44 31 32
251 East Tennessee State 18.1% +0.45 31 33
252 Cal State Fullerton 18.1% +0.45 31 30
253 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 18.1% +0.45 30 27
254 Binghamton 18.1% +0.45 30 28
255 Texas Southern 18.1% +0.46 30 32
256 Northern Illinois 18.1% +0.46 30 29
257 Central Arkansas 18.1% +0.46 29 30
258 Louisville 18.1% +0.46 29 32
259 Utah Valley 18.1% +0.47 29 30
260 Charleston Southern 18.1% +0.47 28 27
261 Bradley 18.1% +0.47 28 34
262 Colorado 18.1% +0.48 28 37
263 Campbell 18.2% +0.48 28 29
264 UL Monroe 18.2% +0.49 27 28
265 South Dakota 18.2% +0.52 27 29
266 San Diego 18.2% +0.52 27 31
267 Longwood 18.2% +0.52 27 32
268 UMass Lowell 18.3% +0.54 26 29
269 Cal State Bakersfield 18.3% +0.55 26 30
270 Ball State 18.3% +0.55 26 29
271 Morehead State 18.3% +0.55 25 31
272 Santa Clara 18.3% +0.56 25 32
273 West Virginia 18.3% +0.56 25 32
274 VCU 18.3% +0.57 25 38
275 Fordham 18.3% +0.58 24 33
276 Oregon State 18.4% +0.61 24 31
277 Brown 18.4% +0.62 24 30
278 Seton Hall 18.5% +0.63 23 37
279 Seattle U 18.5% +0.63 23 36
280 Western Kentucky 18.5% +0.64 23 31
281 Norfolk State 18.5% +0.64 23 31
282 Rhode Island 18.5% +0.65 22 31
283 Marist 18.5% +0.65 22 31
284 LSU 18.5% +0.66 22 33
285 Southern Miss 18.5% +0.67 22 30
286 Cal Poly 18.5% +0.67 21 31
287 Loyola Chicago 18.6% +0.69 21 32
288 Hawai'i 18.6% +0.69 21 32
289 Wyoming 18.6% +0.69 20 30
290 Michigan 18.6% +0.69 20 32
291 Green Bay 18.6% +0.70 20 30
292 Georgia Southern 18.7% +0.73 20 33
293 Winthrop 18.7% +0.73 19 29
294 Oklahoma State 18.7% +0.75 19 32
295 Fresno State 18.8% +0.77 19 32
296 Sam Houston 18.8% +0.80 19 31
297 Florida International 18.8% +0.80 18 32
298 Air Force 18.8% +0.80 18 31
299 Bucknell 18.9% +0.84 18 33
300 Louisiana Tech 18.9% +0.84 17 29
301 Mississippi State 18.9% +0.85 17 35
302 Northeastern 18.9% +0.85 17 32
303 Army 18.9% +0.85 17 30
304 Merrimack 18.9% +0.86 16 31
305 Nicholls 19.0% +0.87 16 31
306 Coastal Carolina 19.0% +0.88 16 29
307 Jackson State 19.0% +0.90 15 32
308 Cal State Northridge 19.0% +0.90 15 32
309 Eastern Washington 19.1% +0.92 15 30
310 UC Santa Barbara 19.1% +0.93 15 29
311 UT Rio Grande Valley 19.1% +0.93 14 29
312 Canisius 19.1% +0.94 14 31
313 Towson 19.1% +0.96 14 33
314 Notre Dame 19.2% +0.97 14 33
315 Saint Peter's 19.2% +1.01 13 32
316 Jacksonville 19.2% +1.01 13 30
317 Detroit Mercy 19.2% +1.01 13 32
318 Manhattan 19.3% +1.02 12 29
319 Northwestern State 19.3% +1.03 12 30
320 UC Davis 19.3% +1.05 12 31
321 Southern Indiana 19.4% +1.08 12 29
322 Dartmouth 19.4% +1.09 11 25
323 Troy 19.5% +1.13 11 29
324 Bethune-Cookman 19.5% +1.14 11 32
325 Stonehill 19.6% +1.17 10 31
326 Western Michigan 19.7% +1.21 10 31
327 Tennessee State 19.7% +1.22 10 29
328 Texas State 19.8% +1.29 10 33
329 Grambling 19.9% +1.31 9 33
330 DePaul 19.9% +1.31 9 32
331 Chicago State 19.9% +1.34 9 29
332 Robert Morris 19.9% +1.35 9 30
333 Buffalo 20.0% +1.35 8 30
334 Long Island University 20.0% +1.39 8 29
335 Western Illinois 20.1% +1.43 8 29
336 Maryland Eastern Shore 20.2% +1.46 7 25
337 Morgan State 20.2% +1.46 7 28
338 Loyola Maryland 20.2% +1.47 7 31
339 Southern 20.2% +1.47 7 29
340 Jacksonville State 20.3% +1.53 6 29
341 Middle Tennessee 20.5% +1.60 6 31
342 Mount St. Mary's 20.8% +1.74 6 32
343 Houston Christian 20.8% +1.76 6 27
344 SE Louisiana 20.9% +1.79 5 29
345 Delaware State 20.9% +1.83 5 32
346 Kansas State 21.0% +1.85 5 34
347 Howard 21.1% +1.88 4 33
348 Saint Francis 21.2% +1.95 4 28
349 UTEP 21.2% +1.95 4 31
350 VMI 21.3% +2.00 4 29
351 Florida A&M 21.3% +2.03 3 27
352 IU Indianapolis 21.4% +2.03 3 29
353 South Carolina State 21.4% +2.07 3 30
354 UT Arlington 21.5% +2.11 2 32
355 Incarnate Word 21.6% +2.13 2 29
356 Stephen F. Austin 21.8% +2.26 2 31
357 Utah Tech 21.9% +2.28 2 30
358 Alabama A&M 22.4% +2.54 1 35
359 Coppin State 22.7% +2.68 1 28
360 Sacramento State 22.7% +2.68 1 32
361 Siena 23.5% +3.07 1 32
362 Mississippi Valley State 23.9% +3.27 0 31
363 Hartford 27.1% +4.81 0 1