Can I kick it? Yes you can. "Can I Kick It?" - A Tribe Called Quest

Game Outcomes

Each point is a completed game — x: home team's season-to-date value entering the game, y: away team's. home win home loss

Predicts home win: AUC 0.56 (team entering with the better value wins 54% of games)

Based on 5508 of 5727 completed games where both teams entered with a season-to-date value.

Team Distribution

Season-to-date value for every team, with a density curve.

min 5.0% max 15.5% mean 9.4% std 1.7% (n=363)

Team Rankings

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# Team Steal Rate z Pctl GP
1 UTEP 15.5% +3.57 100 31
2 Iowa State 15.3% +3.41 100 37
3 Houston 15.1% +3.32 99 37
4 Florida International 14.2% +2.78 99 32
5 Troy 14.1% +2.75 99 29
6 Merrimack 14.0% +2.67 99 31
7 McNeese 13.9% +2.63 98 30
8 Bethune-Cookman 13.3% +2.27 98 32
9 Iona 13.0% +2.12 98 33
10 Florida State 12.8% +2.00 98 33
11 Samford 12.8% +1.98 97 33
12 Syracuse 12.7% +1.92 97 31
13 TCU 12.6% +1.85 97 34
14 Chicago State 12.5% +1.84 96 29
15 UCF 12.5% +1.81 96 33
16 Marquette 12.3% +1.70 96 37
17 Norfolk State 12.3% +1.70 96 31
18 Tarleton State 12.3% +1.68 95 32
19 James Madison 12.3% +1.68 95 35
20 Fairfield 12.2% +1.66 95 36
21 Prairie View A&M 12.2% +1.65 94 29
22 Maine 12.1% +1.59 94 31
23 Purdue Fort Wayne 12.1% +1.56 94 34
24 SMU 12.0% +1.52 94 32
25 Sacred Heart 12.0% +1.52 93 30
26 Northern Kentucky 11.9% +1.48 93 31
27 Delaware State 11.9% +1.47 93 32
28 Louisiana 11.9% +1.45 93 31
29 Stephen F. Austin 11.9% +1.45 92 31
30 San Francisco 11.8% +1.44 92 33
31 Southern 11.8% +1.43 92 29
32 Memphis 11.8% +1.42 91 32
33 New Mexico 11.8% +1.41 91 34
34 Alabama State 11.8% +1.41 91 29
35 Mississippi State 11.7% +1.38 91 35
36 Penn State 11.7% +1.38 90 33
37 South Carolina State 11.7% +1.37 90 30
38 East Carolina 11.7% +1.36 90 32
39 Grand Canyon 11.7% +1.33 90 34
40 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 11.7% +1.33 89 29
41 Arizona State 11.6% +1.30 89 32
42 Ole Miss 11.5% +1.22 89 32
43 Cleveland State 11.4% +1.20 88 35
44 Fordham 11.3% +1.14 88 33
45 Virginia 11.3% +1.11 88 34
46 Montana State 11.3% +1.10 88 32
47 LSU 11.3% +1.10 87 33
48 Cornell 11.2% +1.08 87 28
49 Hartford 11.2% +1.07 87 1
50 Rutgers 11.2% +1.07 86 32
51 UC Davis 11.2% +1.06 86 31
52 North Texas 11.2% +1.06 86 32
53 Arizona 11.2% +1.04 86 36
54 Missouri 11.1% +1.01 85 32
55 Seton Hall 11.1% +0.99 85 37
56 Tennessee 11.1% +0.98 85 36
57 Duquesne 11.0% +0.97 85 36
58 Eastern Illinois 11.0% +0.97 84 27
59 Massachusetts 11.0% +0.93 84 31
60 Coppin State 11.0% +0.93 84 28
61 Old Dominion 11.0% +0.93 83 31
62 Tulsa 10.9% +0.91 83 30
63 East Tennessee State 10.9% +0.91 83 33
64 San Diego State 10.9% +0.87 83 35
65 Abilene Christian 10.8% +0.84 82 33
66 UAlbany 10.8% +0.83 82 31
67 Manhattan 10.8% +0.82 82 29
68 Fairleigh Dickinson 10.8% +0.81 81 30
69 Michigan State 10.7% +0.76 81 35
70 IU Indianapolis 10.7% +0.75 81 29
71 Jackson State 10.7% +0.75 81 32
72 Northwestern 10.7% +0.75 80 34
73 Grambling 10.6% +0.74 80 33
74 Quinnipiac 10.6% +0.72 80 33
75 Saint Peter's 10.6% +0.72 80 32
76 Le Moyne 10.6% +0.71 79 29
77 Texas State 10.6% +0.70 79 33
78 USC 10.6% +0.69 79 33
79 UNC Greensboro 10.5% +0.68 78 30
80 Monmouth 10.5% +0.68 78 33
81 Tulane 10.5% +0.65 78 30
82 Bradley 10.5% +0.65 78 34
83 Texas 10.5% +0.65 77 34
84 East Texas A&M 10.5% +0.64 77 30
85 Long Beach State 10.5% +0.64 77 34
86 Jacksonville 10.5% +0.64 77 30
87 Temple 10.5% +0.63 76 35
88 NC State 10.4% +0.62 76 41
89 Auburn 10.4% +0.61 76 35
90 Marist 10.4% +0.61 75 31
91 Oregon 10.4% +0.59 75 36
92 Alabama A&M 10.4% +0.59 75 35
93 Toledo 10.3% +0.56 75 32
94 Central Connecticut 10.2% +0.51 74 29
95 South Carolina Upstate 10.2% +0.50 74 27
96 Miami 10.2% +0.50 74 32
97 UT Rio Grande Valley 10.2% +0.49 73 29
98 Saint Joseph's 10.2% +0.49 73 35
99 Florida Atlantic 10.2% +0.49 73 34
100 Austin Peay 10.2% +0.48 73 32
101 Air Force 10.2% +0.47 72 31
102 Weber State 10.2% +0.47 72 29
103 Detroit Mercy 10.1% +0.45 72 32
104 Idaho State 10.1% +0.45 72 32
105 Texas A&M 10.1% +0.45 71 36
106 St. John's 10.1% +0.44 71 33
107 San Diego 10.1% +0.44 71 31
108 New Orleans 10.1% +0.44 70 29
109 Lehigh 10.1% +0.44 70 30
110 Southern Miss 10.1% +0.44 70 30
111 Kansas 10.1% +0.43 70 33
112 Western Kentucky 10.1% +0.41 69 31
113 Louisiana Tech 10.1% +0.41 69 29
114 Saint Mary's 10.0% +0.40 69 33
115 Belmont 10.0% +0.40 69 32
116 Kentucky 10.0% +0.39 68 33
117 South Florida 10.0% +0.39 68 33
118 Navy 10.0% +0.39 68 30
119 NJIT 10.0% +0.39 67 27
120 Columbia 10.0% +0.38 67 24
121 Loyola Chicago 10.0% +0.36 67 32
122 UL Monroe 10.0% +0.35 67 28
123 Mississippi Valley State 9.9% +0.34 66 31
124 Mercer 9.9% +0.33 66 30
125 Longwood 9.9% +0.33 66 32
126 Ohio 9.9% +0.32 65 32
127 Cal State Northridge 9.9% +0.32 65 32
128 North Carolina Central 9.9% +0.29 65 27
129 Alcorn State 9.9% +0.29 65 31
130 Richmond 9.9% +0.29 64 33
131 Maryland 9.8% +0.28 64 33
132 St. Bonaventure 9.8% +0.28 64 33
133 Boston University 9.8% +0.27 64 32
134 Mount St. Mary's 9.8% +0.26 63 32
135 Jacksonville State 9.8% +0.25 63 29
136 Portland State 9.8% +0.25 63 29
137 Nicholls 9.8% +0.24 62 31
138 Texas Southern 9.8% +0.23 62 32
139 Duke 9.8% +0.23 62 36
140 Georgia Southern 9.7% +0.21 62 33
141 Utah Valley 9.7% +0.20 61 30
142 Cal State Fullerton 9.7% +0.20 61 30
143 Maryland Eastern Shore 9.7% +0.20 61 25
144 Xavier 9.7% +0.20 60 34
145 UT Arlington 9.7% +0.19 60 32
146 New Hampshire 9.7% +0.19 60 30
147 Furman 9.7% +0.19 60 30
148 Cal State Bakersfield 9.7% +0.19 59 30
149 VCU 9.7% +0.18 59 38
150 Davidson 9.7% +0.18 59 30
151 Sam Houston 9.7% +0.17 59 31
152 Marshall 9.7% +0.17 58 32
153 SE Louisiana 9.7% +0.17 58 29
154 Lamar 9.6% +0.14 58 31
155 Gonzaga 9.6% +0.11 57 34
156 Lafayette 9.5% +0.11 57 31
157 Oakland 9.5% +0.09 57 36
158 Kent State 9.5% +0.08 57 32
159 Northeastern 9.5% +0.08 56 32
160 UMass Lowell 9.5% +0.07 56 29
161 Presbyterian 9.5% +0.06 56 30
162 Bucknell 9.5% +0.05 56 33
163 Kennesaw State 9.4% +0.04 55 28
164 Central Arkansas 9.4% +0.04 55 30
165 Baylor 9.4% +0.03 55 34
166 Tennessee State 9.4% +0.03 54 29
167 Pittsburgh 9.4% +0.03 54 33
168 Iowa 9.4% +0.02 54 34
169 SIU Edwardsville 9.4% +0.02 54 30
170 UAB 9.4% +0.02 53 34
171 Cincinnati 9.4% +0.00 53 37
172 Wisconsin 9.3% -0.02 53 36
173 UConn 9.3% -0.03 52 40
174 Providence 9.3% -0.04 52 35
175 South Alabama 9.3% -0.04 52 29
176 Alabama 9.3% -0.04 52 37
177 St. Thomas-Minnesota 9.3% -0.04 51 30
178 Colgate 9.3% -0.05 51 34
179 Towson 9.3% -0.05 51 33
180 Harvard 9.3% -0.05 51 26
181 Evansville 9.3% -0.05 50 34
182 Northwestern State 9.3% -0.05 50 30
183 Minnesota 9.3% -0.06 50 34
184 Rider 9.2% -0.09 49 31
185 Stonehill 9.2% -0.10 49 31
186 Northern Iowa 9.2% -0.10 49 32
187 Hofstra 9.2% -0.10 49 32
188 Miami (OH) 9.2% -0.12 48 30
189 Drake 9.1% -0.12 48 34
190 Utah State 9.1% -0.13 48 33
191 Nevada 9.1% -0.13 48 33
192 Florida Gulf Coast 9.1% -0.13 47 29
193 Bryant 9.1% -0.13 47 31
194 Murray State 9.1% -0.14 47 31
195 Wagner 9.1% -0.14 46 31
196 Oklahoma State 9.1% -0.15 46 32
197 American University 9.1% -0.15 46 31
198 UC San Diego 9.1% -0.16 46 31
199 Georgia 9.1% -0.17 45 37
200 Wichita State 9.0% -0.18 45 33
201 Queens University 9.0% -0.19 45 31
202 North Dakota 9.0% -0.19 44 29
203 Fresno State 9.0% -0.20 44 32
204 Yale 9.0% -0.21 44 31
205 Florida 9.0% -0.21 44 36
206 Long Island University 9.0% -0.22 43 29
207 Vanderbilt 9.0% -0.22 43 32
208 Chattanooga 9.0% -0.22 43 31
209 La Salle 8.9% -0.24 43 32
210 Nebraska 8.9% -0.24 42 34
211 Texas Tech 8.9% -0.26 42 34
212 Loyola Maryland 8.9% -0.28 42 31
213 Elon 8.9% -0.28 41 30
214 UC Irvine 8.9% -0.28 41 33
215 Vermont 8.9% -0.29 41 33
216 Oregon State 8.8% -0.30 41 31
217 UCLA 8.8% -0.30 40 32
218 Utah Tech 8.8% -0.30 40 30
219 Army 8.8% -0.31 40 30
220 Colorado State 8.8% -0.31 40 34
221 Villanova 8.8% -0.32 39 34
222 Southern Indiana 8.8% -0.34 39 29
223 Princeton 8.8% -0.35 39 27
224 Charleston 8.8% -0.35 38 34
225 Lipscomb 8.7% -0.35 38 30
226 UIC 8.7% -0.36 38 32
227 Canisius 8.7% -0.36 38 31
228 Lindenwood 8.7% -0.37 37 28
229 Bowling Green 8.7% -0.38 37 32
230 Southern Utah 8.7% -0.39 37 29
231 Brown 8.7% -0.39 36 30
232 UNLV 8.7% -0.39 36 32
233 Buffalo 8.7% -0.39 36 30
234 Notre Dame 8.7% -0.40 36 33
235 Central Michigan 8.7% -0.40 35 31
236 Morgan State 8.7% -0.40 35 28
237 UNC Wilmington 8.7% -0.41 35 28
238 Butler 8.6% -0.42 35 32
239 Boston College 8.6% -0.42 34 36
240 Morehead State 8.6% -0.43 34 31
241 Campbell 8.6% -0.44 34 29
242 Omaha 8.6% -0.45 33 29
243 Oklahoma 8.6% -0.45 33 32
244 Boise State 8.6% -0.46 33 31
245 South Dakota State 8.6% -0.47 33 32
246 Wake Forest 8.5% -0.47 32 35
247 Colorado 8.5% -0.47 32 37
248 Valparaiso 8.5% -0.47 32 31
249 Stony Brook 8.5% -0.49 31 34
250 Youngstown State 8.5% -0.49 31 28
251 Northern Colorado 8.5% -0.50 31 31
252 George Mason 8.5% -0.50 31 31
253 Kansas State 8.5% -0.51 30 34
254 BYU 8.5% -0.51 30 34
255 Eastern Michigan 8.5% -0.51 30 29
256 Illinois State 8.5% -0.52 30 31
257 Little Rock 8.5% -0.52 29 34
258 California 8.5% -0.53 29 32
259 Dayton 8.4% -0.53 29 33
260 Florida A&M 8.4% -0.53 28 27
261 Idaho 8.4% -0.54 28 30
262 Saint Francis 8.4% -0.55 28 28
263 Howard 8.4% -0.55 28 33
264 Wright State 8.4% -0.55 27 30
265 Georgetown 8.4% -0.56 27 32
266 App State 8.4% -0.56 27 32
267 Pacific 8.4% -0.58 27 30
268 New Mexico State 8.4% -0.58 26 28
269 Indiana State 8.4% -0.58 26 38
270 Saint Louis 8.3% -0.59 26 32
271 Radford 8.3% -0.61 25 31
272 North Carolina A&T 8.3% -0.63 25 32
273 Denver 8.3% -0.64 25 30
274 Winthrop 8.2% -0.65 25 29
275 Southern Illinois 8.2% -0.66 24 31
276 Utah 8.2% -0.66 24 37
277 Ohio State 8.2% -0.66 24 36
278 Arkansas 8.2% -0.67 23 33
279 Pennsylvania 8.2% -0.67 23 27
280 George Washington 8.2% -0.68 23 31
281 Gardner-Webb 8.2% -0.68 23 30
282 Northern Arizona 8.2% -0.69 22 33
283 Incarnate Word 8.2% -0.69 22 29
284 Kansas City 8.2% -0.70 22 29
285 Cal Poly 8.1% -0.71 22 31
286 Niagara 8.1% -0.71 21 31
287 Seattle U 8.1% -0.72 21 36
288 Charlotte 8.1% -0.73 21 30
289 North Carolina 8.1% -0.74 20 37
290 The Citadel 8.1% -0.74 20 29
291 Akron 8.1% -0.75 20 33
292 Rice 8.0% -0.77 20 31
293 UC Riverside 8.0% -0.79 19 32
294 Arkansas State 8.0% -0.80 19 37
295 Eastern Washington 8.0% -0.81 19 30
296 Delaware 7.9% -0.82 19 32
297 Hampton 7.9% -0.83 18 30
298 Southeast Missouri State 7.9% -0.86 18 27
299 Purdue 7.9% -0.86 18 39
300 Washington 7.9% -0.87 17 32
301 Sacramento State 7.8% -0.88 17 32
302 UNC Asheville 7.8% -0.92 17 31
303 Virginia Tech 7.8% -0.92 17 34
304 Milwaukee 7.8% -0.93 16 33
305 Coastal Carolina 7.7% -0.94 16 29
306 Washington State 7.7% -0.94 16 35
307 Georgia State 7.7% -0.95 15 29
308 Louisville 7.7% -0.96 15 32
309 DePaul 7.7% -0.97 15 32
310 Stanford 7.6% -0.99 15 32
311 UT Martin 7.6% -0.99 14 28
312 Siena 7.6% -1.00 14 32
313 North Florida 7.6% -1.01 14 29
314 Eastern Kentucky 7.6% -1.04 14 28
315 San José State 7.6% -1.04 13 31
316 Oral Roberts 7.6% -1.05 13 28
317 Ball State 7.5% -1.08 13 29
318 Western Illinois 7.5% -1.09 12 29
319 Indiana 7.4% -1.10 12 33
320 Pepperdine 7.4% -1.12 12 30
321 Liberty 7.4% -1.14 12 29
322 VMI 7.4% -1.14 11 29
323 Stetson 7.4% -1.15 11 32
324 Middle Tennessee 7.4% -1.15 11 31
325 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 7.4% -1.16 10 27
326 Western Michigan 7.4% -1.16 10 31
327 Wyoming 7.3% -1.16 10 30
328 Houston Christian 7.3% -1.17 10 27
329 Bellarmine 7.3% -1.17 9 28
330 North Alabama 7.3% -1.19 9 30
331 South Carolina 7.3% -1.19 9 34
332 UC Santa Barbara 7.2% -1.25 9 29
333 Drexel 7.2% -1.25 8 31
334 Tennessee Tech 7.2% -1.27 8 28
335 Robert Morris 7.1% -1.29 8 30
336 UTSA 6.9% -1.42 7 31
337 High Point 6.9% -1.43 7 34
338 William & Mary 6.9% -1.44 7 31
339 Rhode Island 6.8% -1.46 7 31
340 Binghamton 6.8% -1.47 6 28
341 Montana 6.8% -1.49 6 33
342 Clemson 6.7% -1.52 6 36
343 UMBC 6.7% -1.53 6 31
344 Hawai'i 6.6% -1.58 5 32
345 Santa Clara 6.6% -1.58 5 32
346 Northern Illinois 6.6% -1.59 5 29
347 Green Bay 6.5% -1.65 4 30
348 Dartmouth 6.4% -1.72 4 25
349 Wofford 6.3% -1.74 4 29
350 Georgia Tech 6.3% -1.76 4 32
351 West Virginia 6.3% -1.79 3 32
352 Illinois 6.2% -1.82 3 38
353 Missouri State 6.2% -1.84 3 33
354 Holy Cross 6.1% -1.88 2 32
355 Western Carolina 6.1% -1.91 2 29
356 California Baptist 6.0% -1.92 2 31
357 Michigan 6.0% -1.97 2 32
358 Portland 5.9% -2.01 1 31
359 North Dakota State 5.6% -2.15 1 29
360 Creighton 5.5% -2.21 1 35
361 Charleston Southern 5.4% -2.31 1 27
362 Loyola Marymount 5.3% -2.36 0 30
363 South Dakota 5.0% -2.51 0 29