What's the point of robbery when nothing is worth taking? "Stand and Deliver" - Adam and the Ants

Game Outcomes

Each point is a completed game — x: home team's season-to-date value entering the game, y: away team's. home win home loss

Weak standalone predictor of the winner.

Based on 5508 of 5727 completed games where both teams entered with a season-to-date value.

Team Distribution

Season-to-date value for every team, with a density curve.

min 11.5 max 21.6 mean 17.1 std 1.7 (n=363)

Team Rankings

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# Team Personal Fouls Per Game z Pctl GP
1 Creighton 11.5 -3.29 100 35
2 App State 13.1 -2.37 100 32
3 Miami 13.1 -2.34 99 32
4 Lipscomb 13.1 -2.33 99 30
5 Colgate 13.5 -2.11 99 34
6 Virginia 13.5 -2.10 99 34
7 Dayton 13.5 -2.09 98 33
8 Purdue 13.7 -1.97 98 39
9 Princeton 13.8 -1.95 98 27
10 Central Connecticut 13.8 -1.94 98 29
11 The Citadel 13.9 -1.86 97 29
12 Butler 14.0 -1.82 97 32
13 Manhattan 14.1 -1.77 97 29
14 Dartmouth 14.1 -1.74 96 25
15 Vermont 14.1 -1.74 96 33
16 Richmond 14.2 -1.71 96 33
17 Tennessee Tech 14.3 -1.67 96 28
18 Fairfield 14.5 -1.53 95 36
19 Western Illinois 14.6 -1.49 95 29
20 George Washington 14.6 -1.47 95 31
21 Hofstra 14.7 -1.42 94 32
22 Houston Christian 14.8 -1.35 94 27
23 South Dakota State 14.8 -1.35 94 32
24 Florida Gulf Coast 14.8 -1.34 94 29
25 Rice 14.8 -1.34 93 31
26 Colorado 14.9 -1.30 93 37
27 Pennsylvania 14.9 -1.29 93 27
28 Delaware 14.9 -1.28 93 32
29 UT Martin 14.9 -1.26 92 28
30 Kansas 14.9 -1.26 92 33
31 Texas Tech 14.9 -1.26 92 34
32 Niagara 15.0 -1.24 91 31
33 Portland 15.0 -1.24 91 31
34 Cincinnati 15.0 -1.20 91 37
35 Marquette 15.0 -1.20 91 37
36 Ball State 15.0 -1.20 90 29
37 DePaul 15.1 -1.18 90 32
38 Notre Dame 15.1 -1.17 90 33
39 Stetson 15.1 -1.16 90 32
40 Oakland 15.1 -1.15 89 36
41 Campbell 15.1 -1.14 89 29
42 Harvard 15.2 -1.13 89 26
43 Northeastern 15.2 -1.13 88 32
44 Illinois 15.2 -1.13 88 38
45 New Hampshire 15.2 -1.10 88 30
46 Seton Hall 15.2 -1.08 88 37
47 Saint Joseph's 15.3 -1.07 87 35
48 Missouri State 15.3 -1.06 87 33
49 West Virginia 15.3 -1.05 87 32
50 Villanova 15.3 -1.05 86 34
51 North Carolina A&T 15.3 -1.03 86 32
52 Stanford 15.3 -1.03 86 32
53 Siena 15.3 -1.02 86 32
54 Stony Brook 15.4 -1.01 85 34
55 Vanderbilt 15.4 -1.00 85 32
56 North Dakota State 15.4 -0.99 85 29
57 Stonehill 15.4 -0.99 85 31
58 Drexel 15.5 -0.95 84 31
59 Murray State 15.5 -0.93 84 31
60 Yale 15.5 -0.93 84 31
61 Pittsburgh 15.5 -0.93 83 33
62 Wake Forest 15.5 -0.93 83 35
63 Evansville 15.5 -0.92 83 34
64 Mount St. Mary's 15.5 -0.92 83 32
65 Wagner 15.5 -0.89 82 31
66 Toledo 15.6 -0.89 82 32
67 North Dakota 15.6 -0.87 82 29
68 Wichita State 15.6 -0.86 81 33
69 Middle Tennessee 15.6 -0.86 81 31
70 Syracuse 15.6 -0.86 81 31
71 Gonzaga 15.6 -0.85 81 34
72 UMass Lowell 15.6 -0.85 80 29
73 Buffalo 15.6 -0.84 80 30
74 Weber State 15.7 -0.83 80 29
75 Belmont 15.7 -0.81 80 32
76 Le Moyne 15.7 -0.81 79 29
77 Boston College 15.7 -0.79 79 36
78 Illinois State 15.7 -0.78 79 31
79 UMBC 15.7 -0.78 78 31
80 Liberty 15.8 -0.77 78 29
81 Charlotte 15.8 -0.74 78 30
82 East Carolina 15.8 -0.74 78 32
83 Fresno State 15.8 -0.74 77 32
84 Providence 15.8 -0.73 77 35
85 Nebraska 15.9 -0.71 77 34
86 Louisiana Tech 15.9 -0.71 77 29
87 Utah 15.9 -0.71 76 37
88 St. Thomas-Minnesota 15.9 -0.70 76 30
89 Virginia Tech 15.9 -0.70 76 34
90 Duke 15.9 -0.69 75 36
91 Bowling Green 15.9 -0.68 75 32
92 UNLV 15.9 -0.68 75 32
93 Loyola Marymount 16.0 -0.64 75 30
94 Wright State 16.0 -0.64 74 30
95 Oklahoma State 16.0 -0.64 74 32
96 Coastal Carolina 16.0 -0.62 74 29
97 Hartford 16.0 -0.62 73 1
98 Florida Atlantic 16.1 -0.59 73 34
99 Chattanooga 16.1 -0.59 73 31
100 Elon 16.1 -0.59 73 30
101 Wyoming 16.1 -0.59 72 30
102 Charleston 16.1 -0.57 72 34
103 Minnesota 16.1 -0.57 72 34
104 Marshall 16.1 -0.57 72 32
105 Oklahoma 16.1 -0.57 71 32
106 Army 16.1 -0.55 71 30
107 Canisius 16.2 -0.53 71 31
108 South Carolina 16.2 -0.52 70 34
109 Grambling 16.2 -0.52 70 33
110 Georgia 16.2 -0.51 70 37
111 Davidson 16.2 -0.51 70 30
112 UAB 16.2 -0.50 69 34
113 Marist 16.2 -0.49 69 31
114 Clemson 16.3 -0.48 69 36
115 UConn 16.3 -0.48 69 40
116 California Baptist 16.3 -0.47 68 31
117 NC State 16.3 -0.47 68 41
118 Loyola Maryland 16.3 -0.45 68 31
119 Valparaiso 16.3 -0.45 67 31
120 Furman 16.3 -0.45 67 30
121 Hampton 16.3 -0.45 67 30
122 South Dakota 16.3 -0.44 67 29
123 Ole Miss 16.3 -0.44 66 32
124 Eastern Kentucky 16.3 -0.43 66 28
125 Maine 16.4 -0.41 66 31
126 UC San Diego 16.4 -0.41 65 31
127 Indiana State 16.4 -0.41 65 38
128 Holy Cross 16.4 -0.40 65 32
129 SE Louisiana 16.4 -0.40 65 29
130 Drake 16.4 -0.40 64 34
131 Pepperdine 16.4 -0.39 64 30
132 Idaho State 16.4 -0.38 64 32
133 Arizona 16.4 -0.38 64 36
134 Oregon 16.4 -0.38 63 36
135 American University 16.4 -0.38 63 31
136 Northern Kentucky 16.4 -0.38 63 31
137 Quinnipiac 16.4 -0.37 62 33
138 Bellarmine 16.4 -0.37 62 28
139 Central Michigan 16.5 -0.36 62 31
140 Lafayette 16.5 -0.36 62 31
141 Merrimack 16.5 -0.36 61 31
142 VCU 16.5 -0.34 61 38
143 Iowa State 16.5 -0.34 61 37
144 Georgia Tech 16.5 -0.33 60 32
145 Wisconsin 16.5 -0.33 60 36
146 North Carolina 16.5 -0.32 60 37
147 Saint Mary's 16.5 -0.32 60 33
148 George Mason 16.5 -0.32 59 31
149 North Florida 16.6 -0.30 59 29
150 Mississippi State 16.6 -0.28 59 35
151 Morehead State 16.6 -0.26 59 31
152 Bradley 16.6 -0.26 58 34
153 Michigan State 16.6 -0.25 58 35
154 Washington State 16.6 -0.25 58 35
155 Columbia 16.7 -0.23 57 24
156 Lehigh 16.7 -0.23 57 30
157 Arizona State 16.7 -0.22 57 32
158 Georgetown 16.7 -0.22 57 32
159 Northern Iowa 16.7 -0.22 56 32
160 Northern Colorado 16.7 -0.20 56 31
161 Towson 16.7 -0.19 56 33
162 Baylor 16.7 -0.19 56 34
163 Montana 16.8 -0.17 55 33
164 St. Bonaventure 16.8 -0.17 55 33
165 Eastern Michigan 16.8 -0.17 55 29
166 La Salle 16.8 -0.16 54 32
167 South Alabama 16.8 -0.13 54 29
168 UC Santa Barbara 16.8 -0.13 54 29
169 Jacksonville State 16.9 -0.11 54 29
170 Boise State 16.9 -0.11 53 31
171 Xavier 16.9 -0.10 53 34
172 Omaha 16.9 -0.09 53 29
173 SIU Edwardsville 16.9 -0.07 52 30
174 Rutgers 16.9 -0.07 52 32
175 Bucknell 16.9 -0.07 52 33
176 Youngstown State 17.0 -0.05 52 28
177 Monmouth 17.0 -0.05 51 33
178 Ohio State 17.0 -0.05 51 36
179 Texas A&M 17.0 -0.05 51 36
180 Iowa 17.0 -0.03 51 34
181 Indiana 17.0 -0.01 50 33
182 Louisville 17.0 -0.01 50 32
183 North Texas 17.0 -0.01 50 32
184 Brown 17.0 -0.01 49 30
185 Akron 17.1 +0.01 49 33
186 USC 17.1 +0.01 49 33
187 Utah State 17.1 +0.01 49 33
188 Sacramento State 17.1 +0.01 48 32
189 Rhode Island 17.1 +0.01 48 31
190 Binghamton 17.1 +0.01 48 28
191 Temple 17.1 +0.02 48 35
192 Colorado State 17.1 +0.02 47 34
193 Jackson State 17.1 +0.03 47 32
194 Sacred Heart 17.1 +0.03 47 30
195 UNC Wilmington 17.1 +0.06 46 28
196 Wofford 17.2 +0.07 46 29
197 Radford 17.2 +0.09 46 31
198 Green Bay 17.2 +0.09 46 30
199 Miami (OH) 17.2 +0.09 45 30
200 Purdue Fort Wayne 17.2 +0.09 45 34
201 Western Carolina 17.2 +0.09 45 29
202 South Florida 17.2 +0.10 44 33
203 Memphis 17.2 +0.10 44 32
204 Michigan 17.2 +0.10 44 32
205 SMU 17.2 +0.10 44 32
206 San José State 17.2 +0.10 43 31
207 Charleston Southern 17.3 +0.12 43 27
208 Denver 17.3 +0.13 43 30
209 Duquesne 17.3 +0.14 43 36
210 California 17.3 +0.14 42 32
211 Detroit Mercy 17.3 +0.14 42 32
212 Ohio 17.3 +0.14 42 32
213 Texas 17.3 +0.15 41 34
214 VMI 17.3 +0.15 41 29
215 Western Michigan 17.3 +0.16 41 31
216 Southern Miss 17.3 +0.17 41 30
217 Tulane 17.3 +0.17 40 30
218 Delaware State 17.3 +0.17 40 32
219 Northern Illinois 17.3 +0.18 40 29
220 Bryant 17.4 +0.18 40 31
221 William & Mary 17.4 +0.18 39 31
222 Long Beach State 17.4 +0.20 39 34
223 UNC Asheville 17.4 +0.20 39 31
224 LSU 17.4 +0.20 38 33
225 Central Arkansas 17.4 +0.21 38 30
226 Arkansas State 17.4 +0.23 38 37
227 IU Indianapolis 17.4 +0.24 38 29
228 Queens University 17.5 +0.24 37 31
229 Maryland 17.5 +0.24 37 33
230 Pacific 17.5 +0.25 37 30
231 Tennessee 17.5 +0.25 36 36
232 Air Force 17.5 +0.26 36 31
233 Kentucky 17.5 +0.26 36 33
234 Boston University 17.5 +0.27 36 32
235 Tulsa 17.5 +0.27 35 30
236 UC Riverside 17.5 +0.27 35 32
237 TCU 17.5 +0.29 35 34
238 Tarleton State 17.5 +0.29 35 32
239 UNC Greensboro 17.5 +0.29 34 30
240 James Madison 17.5 +0.29 34 35
241 Kansas State 17.6 +0.32 34 34
242 Northwestern 17.6 +0.36 33 34
243 Hawai'i 17.7 +0.36 33 32
244 San Diego State 17.7 +0.36 33 35
245 East Texas A&M 17.7 +0.37 33 30
246 Little Rock 17.7 +0.37 32 34
247 New Mexico 17.7 +0.39 32 34
248 Rider 17.7 +0.39 32 31
249 Saint Francis 17.7 +0.40 31 28
250 UIC 17.7 +0.40 31 32
251 Alcorn State 17.7 +0.41 31 31
252 Mississippi Valley State 17.7 +0.41 31 31
253 BYU 17.8 +0.43 30 34
254 Santa Clara 17.8 +0.44 30 32
255 Nevada 17.8 +0.44 30 33
256 Houston 17.8 +0.45 30 37
257 Coppin State 17.8 +0.46 29 28
258 Iona 17.8 +0.48 29 33
259 Southern Utah 17.9 +0.48 29 29
260 Florida International 17.9 +0.49 28 32
261 Texas State 17.9 +0.51 28 33
262 Fairleigh Dickinson 17.9 +0.53 28 30
263 Idaho 17.9 +0.53 28 30
264 McNeese 17.9 +0.53 27 30
265 Robert Morris 17.9 +0.53 27 30
266 Austin Peay 17.9 +0.53 27 32
267 Saint Louis 17.9 +0.53 27 32
268 Chicago State 18.0 +0.54 26 29
269 Georgia State 18.0 +0.54 26 29
270 St. John's 18.0 +0.55 26 33
271 North Carolina Central 18.0 +0.57 25 27
272 Cal State Fullerton 18.0 +0.59 25 30
273 Oral Roberts 18.0 +0.59 25 28
274 UTSA 18.1 +0.60 25 31
275 UL Monroe 18.1 +0.63 24 28
276 Maryland Eastern Shore 18.1 +0.64 24 25
277 Kent State 18.1 +0.64 24 32
278 Southern Illinois 18.2 +0.66 23 31
279 Grand Canyon 18.2 +0.67 23 34
280 Milwaukee 18.2 +0.67 23 33
281 Louisiana 18.2 +0.68 23 31
282 UT Rio Grande Valley 18.2 +0.69 22 29
283 UCF 18.2 +0.69 22 33
284 Old Dominion 18.2 +0.70 22 31
285 Navy 18.2 +0.70 22 30
286 Washington 18.3 +0.73 21 32
287 Sam Houston 18.3 +0.74 21 31
288 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 18.3 +0.76 21 27
289 Penn State 18.3 +0.76 20 33
290 San Francisco 18.3 +0.76 20 33
291 Utah Valley 18.3 +0.76 20 30
292 East Tennessee State 18.4 +0.78 20 33
293 Northern Arizona 18.4 +0.78 19 33
294 Lindenwood 18.4 +0.80 19 28
295 Winthrop 18.4 +0.81 19 29
296 Florida A&M 18.4 +0.83 19 27
297 Florida 18.5 +0.85 18 36
298 Cleveland State 18.5 +0.87 18 35
299 Portland State 18.5 +0.87 18 29
300 Lamar 18.5 +0.89 17 31
301 Western Kentucky 18.5 +0.89 17 31
302 High Point 18.6 +0.92 17 34
303 Longwood 18.6 +0.92 17 32
304 UCLA 18.6 +0.94 16 32
305 Eastern Illinois 18.6 +0.94 16 27
306 North Alabama 18.6 +0.94 16 30
307 Texas Southern 18.7 +0.96 15 32
308 Massachusetts 18.7 +0.97 15 31
309 Oregon State 18.7 +0.97 15 31
310 Cornell 18.7 +0.97 15 28
311 Howard 18.7 +0.98 14 33
312 UC Irvine 18.7 +0.98 14 33
313 Seattle U 18.8 +1.01 14 36
314 Eastern Washington 18.8 +1.02 14 30
315 Mercer 18.8 +1.04 13 30
316 Presbyterian 18.8 +1.04 13 30
317 Montana State 18.9 +1.09 13 32
318 Northwestern State 18.9 +1.10 12 30
319 Nicholls 19.0 +1.16 12 31
320 Incarnate Word 19.0 +1.18 12 29
321 Norfolk State 19.1 +1.20 12 31
322 Samford 19.1 +1.21 11 33
323 Cal Poly 19.1 +1.22 11 31
324 Long Island University 19.2 +1.28 11 29
325 Saint Peter's 19.3 +1.33 10 32
326 UC Davis 19.3 +1.33 10 31
327 Troy 19.3 +1.37 10 29
328 San Diego 19.4 +1.37 10 31
329 NJIT 19.4 +1.38 9 27
330 Alabama State 19.4 +1.43 9 29
331 Abilene Christian 19.5 +1.43 9 33
332 Gardner-Webb 19.5 +1.46 9 30
333 Loyola Chicago 19.5 +1.46 8 32
334 UAlbany 19.6 +1.51 8 31
335 Auburn 19.6 +1.53 8 35
336 Florida State 19.7 +1.59 7 33
337 New Orleans 19.8 +1.61 7 29
338 Southern 19.9 +1.69 7 29
339 Morgan State 19.9 +1.71 7 28
340 Alabama 19.9 +1.72 6 37
341 Arkansas 20.0 +1.74 6 33
342 UTEP 20.0 +1.77 6 31
343 Georgia Southern 20.1 +1.79 6 33
344 Jacksonville 20.1 +1.80 5 30
345 Missouri 20.1 +1.81 5 32
346 Prairie View A&M 20.2 +1.86 5 29
347 Fordham 20.2 +1.86 4 33
348 Kansas City 20.3 +1.92 4 29
349 Southeast Missouri State 20.4 +1.98 4 27
350 Tennessee State 20.4 +2.00 4 29
351 Cal State Bakersfield 20.5 +2.03 3 30
352 New Mexico State 20.8 +2.20 3 28
353 Alabama A&M 20.8 +2.21 3 35
354 Bethune-Cookman 20.8 +2.26 2 32
355 Kennesaw State 20.9 +2.27 2 28
356 South Carolina Upstate 21.0 +2.33 2 27
357 South Carolina State 21.0 +2.33 2 30
358 Utah Tech 21.0 +2.37 1 30
359 UT Arlington 21.2 +2.46 1 32
360 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 21.2 +2.47 1 29
361 Cal State Northridge 21.3 +2.56 1 32
362 Stephen F. Austin 21.5 +2.62 0 31
363 Southern Indiana 21.6 +2.72 0 29