And of all my friends, you've been the best to me. / Soon will be the day when I repay you handsomely. "Rush" - Big Audio Dynamite

Game Outcomes

Each point is a completed game — x: home team's season-to-date value entering the game, y: away team's. home win home loss

Weak standalone predictor of the winner.

Based on 5508 of 5727 completed games where both teams entered with a season-to-date value.

Team Distribution

Season-to-date value for every team, with a density curve.

min 12.6% max 36.4% mean 23.8% std 3.9% (n=363)

Team Rankings

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# Team Opponent Free Throw Rate z Pctl GP
1 Creighton 12.6% -2.83 100 35
2 App State 14.5% -2.33 100 32
3 Miami 15.9% -1.99 99 32
4 Purdue 15.9% -1.98 99 39
5 Dayton 16.0% -1.98 99 33
6 Portland 16.0% -1.96 99 31
7 The Citadel 16.4% -1.87 98 29
8 Lipscomb 16.4% -1.86 98 30
9 Colgate 16.4% -1.86 98 34
10 Butler 16.5% -1.85 98 32
11 Campbell 17.0% -1.70 97 29
12 Dartmouth 17.1% -1.68 97 25
13 George Washington 17.3% -1.64 97 31
14 Stanford 17.3% -1.63 96 32
15 UT Martin 17.6% -1.57 96 28
16 Utah 17.8% -1.52 96 37
17 Missouri State 17.9% -1.50 96 33
18 Harvard 17.9% -1.49 95 26
19 Fairfield 18.0% -1.45 95 36
20 Central Connecticut 18.1% -1.42 95 29
21 Western Illinois 18.2% -1.41 94 29
22 Princeton 18.2% -1.40 94 27
23 Gonzaga 18.3% -1.40 94 34
24 Bowling Green 18.4% -1.37 94 32
25 Arizona 18.4% -1.35 93 36
26 Chattanooga 18.5% -1.33 93 31
27 UMass Lowell 18.6% -1.32 93 29
28 Stetson 18.7% -1.28 93 32
29 Drexel 18.9% -1.24 92 31
30 Toledo 19.0% -1.22 92 32
31 Stony Brook 19.0% -1.21 92 34
32 Duke 19.1% -1.19 91 36
33 Pennsylvania 19.1% -1.18 91 27
34 Villanova 19.2% -1.17 91 34
35 Delaware 19.2% -1.17 91 32
36 Fresno State 19.2% -1.16 90 32
37 Tennessee Tech 19.2% -1.15 90 28
38 Indiana State 19.2% -1.15 90 38
39 Syracuse 19.3% -1.14 90 31
40 Illinois 19.3% -1.14 89 38
41 Virginia 19.3% -1.12 89 34
42 Vermont 19.4% -1.11 89 33
43 Richmond 19.4% -1.10 88 33
44 Texas Tech 19.4% -1.10 88 34
45 Colorado 19.4% -1.10 88 37
46 Nebraska 19.4% -1.10 88 34
47 Belmont 19.4% -1.10 87 32
48 Seton Hall 19.5% -1.08 87 37
49 Notre Dame 19.6% -1.05 87 33
50 Furman 19.6% -1.04 86 30
51 Le Moyne 19.7% -1.04 86 29
52 Ball State 19.7% -1.02 86 29
53 Canisius 19.8% -1.01 86 31
54 Oakland 19.8% -1.00 85 36
55 Kansas 19.8% -1.00 85 33
56 Florida Atlantic 19.8% -0.99 85 34
57 South Dakota 19.9% -0.98 85 29
58 Providence 20.0% -0.96 84 35
59 Illinois State 20.0% -0.96 84 31
60 South Dakota State 20.0% -0.95 84 32
61 Murray State 20.0% -0.95 83 31
62 VMI 20.1% -0.94 83 29
63 New Hampshire 20.1% -0.94 83 30
64 Rhode Island 20.1% -0.93 83 31
65 Manhattan 20.1% -0.93 82 29
66 Marquette 20.1% -0.92 82 37
67 North Carolina A&T 20.1% -0.92 82 32
68 Rice 20.3% -0.87 81 31
69 Siena 20.3% -0.87 81 32
70 Oklahoma State 20.4% -0.86 81 32
71 Coastal Carolina 20.4% -0.86 81 29
72 Quinnipiac 20.4% -0.85 80 33
73 Akron 20.4% -0.84 80 33
74 Houston Christian 20.5% -0.84 80 27
75 Florida Gulf Coast 20.5% -0.84 80 29
76 Wyoming 20.5% -0.82 79 30
77 UMBC 20.6% -0.81 79 31
78 Charleston 20.6% -0.81 79 34
79 Wichita State 20.7% -0.79 78 33
80 West Virginia 20.7% -0.78 78 32
81 Lehigh 20.7% -0.78 78 30
82 Wagner 20.7% -0.77 78 31
83 Saint Joseph's 20.7% -0.77 77 35
84 Buffalo 20.8% -0.76 77 30
85 American University 20.8% -0.75 77 31
86 Loyola Marymount 20.8% -0.74 77 30
87 North Carolina 20.9% -0.73 76 37
88 Evansville 20.9% -0.73 76 34
89 Weber State 20.9% -0.73 76 29
90 Elon 20.9% -0.73 75 30
91 Columbia 20.9% -0.72 75 24
92 Cornell 20.9% -0.72 75 28
93 Boston College 21.0% -0.69 75 36
94 Marshall 21.1% -0.68 74 32
95 North Dakota State 21.1% -0.67 74 29
96 Northern Kentucky 21.1% -0.67 74 31
97 Xavier 21.1% -0.67 73 34
98 UC Santa Barbara 21.1% -0.67 73 29
99 Valparaiso 21.2% -0.66 73 31
100 Memphis 21.2% -0.65 73 32
101 DePaul 21.2% -0.65 72 32
102 Georgia 21.2% -0.64 72 37
103 Ohio State 21.2% -0.64 72 36
104 UC San Diego 21.3% -0.64 72 31
105 Queens University 21.3% -0.63 71 31
106 Youngstown State 21.3% -0.62 71 28
107 Stonehill 21.3% -0.62 71 31
108 Minnesota 21.4% -0.59 70 34
109 St. Thomas-Minnesota 21.5% -0.58 70 30
110 Northeastern 21.5% -0.56 70 32
111 Sacred Heart 21.5% -0.56 70 30
112 Wright State 21.6% -0.54 69 30
113 Eastern Michigan 21.7% -0.52 69 29
114 Yale 21.7% -0.52 69 31
115 Middle Tennessee 21.7% -0.51 69 31
116 Niagara 21.8% -0.50 68 31
117 California Baptist 21.8% -0.49 68 31
118 Northern Colorado 21.9% -0.48 68 31
119 North Dakota 21.9% -0.47 67 29
120 Cincinnati 21.9% -0.47 67 37
121 Liberty 22.0% -0.46 67 29
122 Maine 22.0% -0.45 67 31
123 Drake 22.0% -0.44 66 34
124 Towson 22.0% -0.44 66 33
125 SE Louisiana 22.0% -0.44 66 29
126 Arizona State 22.1% -0.42 65 32
127 Fairleigh Dickinson 22.1% -0.42 65 30
128 Bucknell 22.1% -0.42 65 33
129 Hofstra 22.1% -0.42 65 32
130 Holy Cross 22.1% -0.42 64 32
131 Utah State 22.2% -0.39 64 33
132 Michigan 22.2% -0.39 64 32
133 Virginia Tech 22.2% -0.39 64 34
134 Charlotte 22.3% -0.37 63 30
135 Brown 22.3% -0.37 63 30
136 Army 22.3% -0.36 63 30
137 Southern Miss 22.3% -0.36 62 30
138 Eastern Kentucky 22.4% -0.36 62 28
139 BYU 22.4% -0.35 62 34
140 UNLV 22.4% -0.34 62 32
141 Davidson 22.4% -0.34 61 30
142 Radford 22.5% -0.33 61 31
143 Western Kentucky 22.5% -0.32 61 31
144 UConn 22.6% -0.30 60 40
145 Wake Forest 22.6% -0.28 60 35
146 Hampton 22.7% -0.28 60 30
147 Western Michigan 22.7% -0.27 60 31
148 Loyola Maryland 22.7% -0.26 59 31
149 Texas A&M 22.8% -0.25 59 36
150 Central Michigan 22.8% -0.25 59 31
151 Merrimack 22.8% -0.25 59 31
152 UAB 22.8% -0.24 58 34
153 Mount St. Mary's 22.9% -0.22 58 32
154 Western Carolina 22.9% -0.21 58 29
155 Ole Miss 23.0% -0.20 57 32
156 Baylor 23.0% -0.20 57 34
157 George Mason 23.0% -0.20 57 31
158 Southern Utah 23.0% -0.19 57 29
159 Vanderbilt 23.0% -0.19 56 32
160 Washington 23.0% -0.19 56 32
161 Louisiana Tech 23.0% -0.19 56 29
162 Miami (OH) 23.1% -0.17 56 30
163 Michigan State 23.2% -0.15 55 35
164 Iowa 23.2% -0.15 55 34
165 South Florida 23.2% -0.15 55 33
166 South Carolina 23.2% -0.15 54 34
167 Pittsburgh 23.2% -0.14 54 33
168 NC State 23.2% -0.14 54 41
169 Lafayette 23.2% -0.13 54 31
170 Kansas State 23.3% -0.12 53 34
171 USC 23.3% -0.11 53 33
172 Tulane 23.3% -0.11 53 30
173 Georgia Tech 23.3% -0.11 52 32
174 Long Beach State 23.3% -0.11 52 34
175 San Diego State 23.3% -0.11 52 35
176 Colorado State 23.4% -0.10 52 34
177 Oregon 23.4% -0.10 51 36
178 South Alabama 23.4% -0.10 51 29
179 UNC Wilmington 23.4% -0.09 51 28
180 Santa Clara 23.4% -0.09 51 32
181 Clemson 23.5% -0.08 50 36
182 Purdue Fort Wayne 23.5% -0.07 50 34
183 Northern Iowa 23.5% -0.06 50 32
184 St. Bonaventure 23.5% -0.06 49 33
185 Bryant 23.6% -0.04 49 31
186 Washington State 23.6% -0.04 49 35
187 Denver 23.6% -0.04 49 30
188 Northern Illinois 23.6% -0.04 48 29
189 Oklahoma 23.7% -0.03 48 32
190 Oral Roberts 23.7% -0.01 48 28
191 Indiana 23.7% -0.00 48 33
192 Sacramento State 23.8% +0.00 47 32
193 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 23.8% +0.01 47 27
194 Bellarmine 23.8% +0.01 47 28
195 Marist 23.8% +0.01 46 31
196 Charleston Southern 23.8% +0.01 46 27
197 Saint Mary's 23.9% +0.03 46 33
198 Kentucky 23.9% +0.03 46 33
199 Mississippi State 23.9% +0.04 45 35
200 La Salle 23.9% +0.04 45 32
201 California 24.0% +0.05 45 32
202 Rutgers 24.0% +0.05 44 32
203 Tarleton State 24.0% +0.05 44 32
204 Nevada 24.0% +0.06 44 33
205 Hartford 24.0% +0.06 44 1
206 Georgetown 24.0% +0.06 43 32
207 Omaha 24.0% +0.07 43 29
208 Boise State 24.1% +0.07 43 31
209 Portland State 24.1% +0.09 43 29
210 Grand Canyon 24.1% +0.09 42 34
211 McNeese 24.2% +0.10 42 30
212 Ohio 24.3% +0.14 42 32
213 Idaho State 24.4% +0.16 41 32
214 Pepperdine 24.4% +0.16 41 30
215 Tulsa 24.4% +0.16 41 30
216 SMU 24.4% +0.17 41 32
217 Morehead State 24.5% +0.18 40 31
218 Wisconsin 24.5% +0.18 40 36
219 Central Arkansas 24.5% +0.18 40 30
220 Hawai'i 24.5% +0.18 40 32
221 UNC Asheville 24.5% +0.18 39 31
222 Texas 24.5% +0.20 39 34
223 IU Indianapolis 24.6% +0.20 39 29
224 Iowa State 24.6% +0.20 38 37
225 Chicago State 24.6% +0.21 38 29
226 Grambling 24.6% +0.21 38 33
227 North Florida 24.6% +0.21 38 29
228 Montana 24.6% +0.21 37 33
229 UTSA 24.7% +0.23 37 31
230 East Carolina 24.7% +0.23 37 32
231 Jackson State 24.7% +0.24 36 32
232 Louisville 24.7% +0.24 36 32
233 Jacksonville State 24.7% +0.25 36 29
234 Florida 24.8% +0.26 36 36
235 Monmouth 24.8% +0.26 35 33
236 UC Riverside 24.8% +0.27 35 32
237 Milwaukee 24.8% +0.27 35 33
238 Green Bay 24.8% +0.27 35 30
239 UCLA 24.9% +0.28 34 32
240 Detroit Mercy 24.9% +0.28 34 32
241 Duquesne 24.9% +0.28 34 36
242 TCU 24.9% +0.29 33 34
243 Eastern Washington 24.9% +0.29 33 30
244 Saint Francis 24.9% +0.29 33 28
245 San José State 25.0% +0.30 33 31
246 Utah Valley 25.0% +0.31 32 30
247 Boston University 25.0% +0.31 32 32
248 VCU 25.0% +0.31 32 38
249 UC Irvine 25.0% +0.32 31 33
250 New Mexico 25.1% +0.33 31 34
251 Florida International 25.1% +0.34 31 32
252 Seattle U 25.2% +0.35 31 36
253 UT Rio Grande Valley 25.2% +0.36 30 29
254 Longwood 25.2% +0.37 30 32
255 Rider 25.3% +0.40 30 31
256 Tennessee 25.3% +0.40 30 36
257 Bradley 25.4% +0.41 29 34
258 LSU 25.4% +0.41 29 33
259 Sam Houston 25.4% +0.42 29 31
260 Georgia State 25.4% +0.43 28 29
261 East Tennessee State 25.5% +0.44 28 33
262 Oregon State 25.5% +0.44 28 31
263 Binghamton 25.5% +0.45 28 28
264 James Madison 25.6% +0.46 27 35
265 St. John's 25.6% +0.46 27 33
266 Cal State Fullerton 25.6% +0.46 27 30
267 Kent State 25.6% +0.46 27 32
268 Maryland 25.6% +0.48 26 33
269 Samford 25.7% +0.49 26 33
270 Navy 25.7% +0.49 26 30
271 Saint Louis 25.7% +0.50 25 32
272 Wofford 25.8% +0.52 25 29
273 Winthrop 25.9% +0.55 25 29
274 Southern Illinois 26.0% +0.56 25 31
275 Delaware State 26.0% +0.57 24 32
276 William & Mary 26.0% +0.57 24 31
277 Temple 26.1% +0.58 24 35
278 Maryland Eastern Shore 26.1% +0.59 23 25
279 Little Rock 26.2% +0.61 23 34
280 San Francisco 26.3% +0.65 23 33
281 Cleveland State 26.4% +0.65 23 35
282 Florida A&M 26.4% +0.66 22 27
283 Montana State 26.5% +0.68 22 32
284 Arkansas State 26.5% +0.69 22 37
285 UNC Greensboro 26.5% +0.70 22 30
286 Houston 26.6% +0.71 21 37
287 Pacific 26.7% +0.73 21 30
288 SIU Edwardsville 26.7% +0.74 21 30
289 Alcorn State 26.7% +0.75 20 31
290 Northern Arizona 26.8% +0.76 20 33
291 Robert Morris 26.8% +0.77 20 30
292 Howard 26.9% +0.78 20 33
293 Austin Peay 26.9% +0.79 19 32
294 North Carolina Central 26.9% +0.80 19 27
295 UIC 26.9% +0.80 19 32
296 Nicholls 27.0% +0.81 19 31
297 Loyola Chicago 27.0% +0.81 18 32
298 San Diego 27.1% +0.84 18 31
299 Idaho 27.2% +0.86 18 30
300 Eastern Illinois 27.2% +0.87 17 27
301 High Point 27.3% +0.88 17 34
302 North Texas 27.4% +0.93 17 32
303 UL Monroe 27.5% +0.93 17 28
304 Abilene Christian 27.6% +0.96 16 33
305 NJIT 27.6% +0.98 16 27
306 Lamar 27.7% +1.00 16 31
307 Iona 27.7% +1.00 15 33
308 Texas State 27.8% +1.02 15 33
309 Penn State 27.9% +1.04 15 33
310 Massachusetts 27.9% +1.04 15 31
311 Gardner-Webb 28.0% +1.08 14 30
312 Mercer 28.1% +1.09 14 30
313 New Orleans 28.1% +1.10 14 29
314 East Texas A&M 28.1% +1.10 14 30
315 Troy 28.1% +1.11 13 29
316 UAlbany 28.2% +1.11 13 31
317 Northwestern 28.3% +1.15 13 34
318 UC Davis 28.3% +1.16 12 31
319 Long Island University 28.4% +1.17 12 29
320 Arkansas 28.4% +1.17 12 33
321 Texas Southern 28.5% +1.20 12 32
322 Coppin State 28.6% +1.23 11 28
323 Morgan State 28.6% +1.23 11 28
324 Alabama 28.6% +1.23 11 37
325 Old Dominion 28.7% +1.25 10 31
326 Louisiana 28.7% +1.25 10 31
327 Jacksonville 28.7% +1.26 10 30
328 Florida State 28.8% +1.26 10 33
329 UCF 28.8% +1.27 9 33
330 Cal State Northridge 28.9% +1.30 9 32
331 Incarnate Word 29.0% +1.32 9 29
332 Air Force 29.2% +1.37 9 31
333 Northwestern State 29.2% +1.38 8 30
334 Lindenwood 29.2% +1.39 8 28
335 North Alabama 29.4% +1.42 8 30
336 Mississippi Valley State 29.7% +1.50 7 31
337 Saint Peter's 30.0% +1.57 7 32
338 Georgia Southern 30.3% +1.66 7 33
339 Presbyterian 30.4% +1.68 7 30
340 Auburn 30.5% +1.69 6 35
341 UT Arlington 31.3% +1.90 6 32
342 Cal Poly 31.3% +1.91 6 31
343 Southeast Missouri State 31.4% +1.93 6 27
344 Missouri 31.4% +1.94 5 32
345 Utah Tech 31.5% +1.95 5 30
346 Kennesaw State 31.6% +1.98 5 28
347 New Mexico State 31.7% +2.00 4 28
348 Alabama State 31.8% +2.04 4 29
349 Kansas City 32.0% +2.08 4 29
350 Norfolk State 32.0% +2.09 4 31
351 Tennessee State 32.2% +2.13 3 29
352 South Carolina Upstate 32.2% +2.13 3 27
353 Fordham 32.3% +2.16 3 33
354 Prairie View A&M 32.8% +2.28 2 29
355 UTEP 32.8% +2.28 2 31
356 Southern 33.4% +2.43 2 29
357 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 33.6% +2.48 2 29
358 Alabama A&M 33.8% +2.55 1 35
359 Cal State Bakersfield 34.0% +2.59 1 30
360 Stephen F. Austin 34.3% +2.66 1 31
361 Bethune-Cookman 35.0% +2.83 1 32
362 Southern Indiana 35.9% +3.08 0 29
363 South Carolina State 36.4% +3.21 0 30