You'll work harder with a gun in your back, for a bowl of rice a day. "Holiday In Cambodia" - The Dead Kennedys

Does it predict winners?

Predicts home win: AUC 0.65 (team entering with the better value wins 62% of games)

See the game-by-game scatter on the Predictor page →

Team Distribution

Season-to-date value for every team, with a density curve.

min 44.7% max 55.0% mean 49.9% std 2.5% (n=363)

Team Rankings

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# Team Opponents' Opponents' Win Percentage (OOWP) z Pctl GP
1 Arizona 55.0% +2.08 100 36
2 Purdue 54.9% +2.04 100 39
3 Tennessee 54.7% +1.95 99 36
4 UConn 54.5% +1.86 99 40
5 Northwestern 54.5% +1.86 99 34
6 North Carolina 54.4% +1.83 99 37
7 Alabama 54.3% +1.78 98 37
8 Creighton 54.3% +1.78 98 35
9 Clemson 54.2% +1.76 98 36
10 Auburn 54.2% +1.75 98 35
11 Kentucky 54.1% +1.71 97 33
12 Duke 54.0% +1.68 97 36
13 Michigan State 54.0% +1.67 97 35
14 Oregon 54.0% +1.66 96 36
15 Ohio State 53.9% +1.65 96 36
16 Marquette 53.9% +1.64 96 37
17 NC State 53.9% +1.63 96 41
18 Texas A&M 53.9% +1.63 95 36
19 St. John's 53.9% +1.62 95 33
20 South Carolina 53.8% +1.61 95 34
21 Boise State 53.8% +1.58 94 31
22 Baylor 53.8% +1.58 94 34
23 Florida 53.8% +1.57 94 36
24 Kansas 53.7% +1.56 94 33
25 Virginia 53.7% +1.56 93 34
26 Illinois 53.7% +1.53 93 38
27 Wisconsin 53.7% +1.53 93 36
28 BYU 53.6% +1.51 93 34
29 Syracuse 53.6% +1.50 92 31
30 Washington 53.6% +1.50 92 32
31 Colorado 53.6% +1.50 92 37
32 Stanford 53.6% +1.49 91 32
33 Xavier 53.5% +1.45 91 34
34 Mississippi State 53.4% +1.44 91 35
35 Colorado State 53.4% +1.44 91 34
36 Nebraska 53.4% +1.43 90 34
37 Butler 53.4% +1.43 90 32
38 Houston 53.4% +1.42 90 37
39 UNLV 53.4% +1.41 90 32
40 Arkansas 53.4% +1.41 89 33
41 San Diego State 53.4% +1.41 89 35
42 Richmond 53.3% +1.39 89 33
43 Michigan 53.3% +1.37 88 32
44 Kansas State 53.2% +1.36 88 34
45 Pittsburgh 53.2% +1.36 88 33
46 Indiana 53.2% +1.35 88 33
47 Utah State 53.2% +1.34 87 33
48 Iowa 53.2% +1.34 87 34
49 Louisville 53.2% +1.33 87 32
50 Utah 53.1% +1.32 86 37
51 Texas Tech 53.1% +1.31 86 34
52 LSU 53.1% +1.31 86 33
53 Georgia Tech 53.1% +1.30 86 32
54 New Mexico 53.1% +1.29 85 35
55 Miami 53.1% +1.29 85 32
56 Saint Louis 53.0% +1.28 85 32
57 Nevada 53.0% +1.27 85 33
58 Wake Forest 53.0% +1.27 84 35
59 Wyoming 52.9% +1.23 84 30
60 Penn State 52.9% +1.23 84 33
61 Georgia 52.9% +1.23 83 37
62 Iowa State 52.9% +1.23 83 37
63 Florida State 52.9% +1.22 83 33
64 Texas 52.9% +1.22 83 34
65 Rutgers 52.9% +1.22 82 32
66 UCLA 52.9% +1.22 82 32
67 Memphis 52.9% +1.21 82 32
68 Seton Hall 52.8% +1.20 81 37
69 Oklahoma 52.8% +1.20 81 32
70 Washington State 52.8% +1.19 81 35
71 USC 52.8% +1.18 81 33
72 Ole Miss 52.8% +1.17 80 32
73 Virginia Tech 52.7% +1.16 80 34
74 Cincinnati 52.7% +1.16 80 37
75 Maryland 52.7% +1.15 80 33
76 Arizona State 52.7% +1.15 79 32
77 Boston College 52.7% +1.15 79 36
78 Saint Mary's 52.7% +1.14 79 33
79 Vanderbilt 52.6% +1.11 78 32
80 Providence 52.6% +1.10 78 35
81 Missouri 52.6% +1.10 78 32
82 TCU 52.5% +1.08 78 34
83 Dayton 52.5% +1.07 77 33
84 West Virginia 52.5% +1.07 77 32
85 Oregon State 52.5% +1.06 77 31
86 California 52.5% +1.04 77 32
87 Notre Dame 52.4% +1.03 76 33
88 Gonzaga 52.4% +1.02 76 34
89 Duquesne 52.3% +0.98 76 36
90 Villanova 52.2% +0.95 75 34
91 Oklahoma State 52.1% +0.92 75 32
92 Indiana State 52.1% +0.92 75 38
93 George Mason 52.1% +0.91 75 31
94 Loyola Chicago 52.1% +0.91 74 32
95 Bradley 52.1% +0.90 74 34
96 VCU 52.1% +0.90 74 38
97 St. Bonaventure 52.0% +0.87 73 33
98 UCF 52.0% +0.87 73 33
99 Santa Clara 51.9% +0.81 73 32
100 SMU 51.9% +0.80 73 32
101 Massachusetts 51.8% +0.78 72 31
102 Davidson 51.8% +0.76 72 30
103 UAB 51.8% +0.76 72 34
104 DePaul 51.7% +0.74 72 32
105 San José State 51.7% +0.72 71 31
106 Minnesota 51.6% +0.71 71 34
107 Drake 51.6% +0.70 71 34
108 Rhode Island 51.6% +0.69 70 31
109 Florida Atlantic 51.6% +0.68 70 34
110 North Texas 51.6% +0.68 70 32
111 Charlotte 51.5% +0.67 70 30
112 Northern Iowa 51.5% +0.67 69 32
113 Yale 51.4% +0.63 69 31
114 Southern Illinois 51.4% +0.62 69 31
115 La Salle 51.4% +0.60 69 32
116 Belmont 51.3% +0.56 68 32
117 San Francisco 51.2% +0.52 68 33
118 Saint Joseph's 51.1% +0.50 68 35
119 Cornell 51.1% +0.50 67 28
120 South Florida 51.0% +0.46 67 33
121 Fresno State 51.0% +0.45 67 32
122 Oakland 51.0% +0.44 67 36
123 Wichita State 50.9% +0.42 66 33
124 Tulane 50.9% +0.40 66 30
125 Princeton 50.8% +0.38 66 27
126 Missouri State 50.8% +0.38 65 33
127 Grand Canyon 50.8% +0.36 65 34
128 UT Arlington 50.8% +0.35 65 32
129 Long Beach State 50.7% +0.33 65 34
130 Liberty 50.6% +0.30 64 29
131 Utah Valley 50.6% +0.28 64 30
132 George Washington 50.5% +0.27 64 31
133 Samford 50.5% +0.25 64 33
134 Fordham 50.5% +0.24 63 33
135 UC Irvine 50.5% +0.24 63 33
136 Charleston 50.5% +0.24 63 34
137 Loyola Marymount 50.5% +0.24 62 30
138 Georgetown 50.4% +0.22 62 32
139 Gardner-Webb 50.4% +0.22 62 30
140 Alcorn State 50.4% +0.20 62 31
141 Vermont 50.4% +0.20 61 33
142 Pennsylvania 50.4% +0.19 61 27
143 App State 50.3% +0.18 61 32
144 Valparaiso 50.3% +0.18 60 31
145 Murray State 50.3% +0.18 60 31
146 Illinois State 50.3% +0.16 60 31
147 Air Force 50.3% +0.16 60 31
148 Temple 50.3% +0.15 59 35
149 Wofford 50.2% +0.14 59 29
150 Central Michigan 50.2% +0.14 59 31
151 Stephen F. Austin 50.2% +0.12 59 31
152 Louisiana Tech 50.2% +0.12 58 29
153 Rice 50.2% +0.11 58 31
154 Sam Houston 50.1% +0.09 58 31
155 Evansville 50.1% +0.07 57 34
156 UIC 50.1% +0.07 57 32
157 Akron 50.0% +0.05 57 33
158 Western Kentucky 50.0% +0.04 57 31
159 Toledo 49.9% +0.02 56 32
160 Brown 49.9% +0.01 56 30
161 James Madison 49.9% +0.01 56 35
162 Tarleton State 49.8% -0.03 56 32
163 Wright State 49.8% -0.03 55 30
164 Abilene Christian 49.8% -0.03 55 33
165 Southern Utah 49.8% -0.04 55 29
166 Troy 49.8% -0.04 54 29
167 Eastern Washington 49.8% -0.05 54 30
168 Weber State 49.7% -0.07 54 29
169 Southern 49.7% -0.08 54 29
170 Middle Tennessee 49.7% -0.09 53 31
171 UNC Greensboro 49.7% -0.09 53 30
172 Texas Southern 49.6% -0.12 53 32
173 East Carolina 49.6% -0.12 52 32
174 Pepperdine 49.6% -0.12 52 31
175 Bryant 49.6% -0.12 52 31
176 Monmouth 49.6% -0.14 52 33
177 Harvard 49.5% -0.15 51 26
178 Radford 49.4% -0.19 51 31
179 Tulsa 49.4% -0.19 51 30
180 Grambling 49.4% -0.19 51 33
181 Western Carolina 49.4% -0.19 50 29
182 Mercer 49.4% -0.19 50 30
183 UTEP 49.4% -0.20 50 31
184 Furman 49.4% -0.20 49 30
185 Northern Kentucky 49.3% -0.22 49 31
186 Hofstra 49.3% -0.23 49 32
187 Rider 49.3% -0.23 49 31
188 Florida International 49.3% -0.24 48 32
189 High Point 49.3% -0.24 48 34
190 South Alabama 49.3% -0.25 48 29
191 New Mexico State 49.3% -0.26 48 28
192 Marshall 49.2% -0.27 47 32
193 Portland 49.2% -0.27 47 31
194 UNC Wilmington 49.2% -0.28 47 28
195 Chattanooga 49.2% -0.28 46 31
196 Morehead State 49.2% -0.30 46 31
197 Alabama State 49.2% -0.30 46 29
198 Youngstown State 49.1% -0.32 46 28
199 Winthrop 49.1% -0.32 45 29
200 Southern Miss 49.1% -0.33 45 30
201 Stony Brook 49.1% -0.33 45 34
202 Jacksonville State 49.0% -0.34 44 29
203 Colgate 49.0% -0.35 44 34
204 Lipscomb 49.0% -0.36 44 30
205 Arkansas State 49.0% -0.36 44 37
206 Florida A&M 49.0% -0.36 43 27
207 Drexel 49.0% -0.37 43 31
208 Miami (OH) 49.0% -0.37 43 30
209 Northern Illinois 49.0% -0.38 43 29
210 Georgia Southern 49.0% -0.38 42 33
211 Seattle U 49.0% -0.38 42 36
212 East Tennessee State 48.9% -0.39 42 33
213 Cleveland State 48.9% -0.39 41 35
214 Eastern Michigan 48.9% -0.40 41 29
215 Stetson 48.9% -0.40 41 32
216 Cal State Fullerton 48.9% -0.42 41 30
217 UNC Asheville 48.8% -0.42 40 31
218 Louisiana 48.8% -0.43 40 31
219 Columbia 48.8% -0.45 40 24
220 Coastal Carolina 48.8% -0.45 40 29
221 Texas State 48.8% -0.45 39 33
222 Kent State 48.7% -0.47 39 32
223 New Hampshire 48.7% -0.47 39 30
224 UTSA 48.7% -0.47 38 31
225 Ohio 48.7% -0.47 38 32
226 Jackson State 48.7% -0.48 38 32
227 McNeese 48.7% -0.48 38 30
228 Dartmouth 48.7% -0.50 37 25
229 Towson 48.7% -0.50 37 33
230 San Diego 48.6% -0.51 37 31
231 South Dakota State 48.6% -0.51 36 32
232 Cal State Bakersfield 48.6% -0.53 36 30
233 Mississippi Valley State 48.6% -0.53 36 31
234 Old Dominion 48.6% -0.54 36 31
235 Delaware 48.5% -0.55 35 32
236 Western Michigan 48.5% -0.56 35 31
237 Prairie View A&M 48.5% -0.56 35 29
238 Bellarmine 48.5% -0.56 35 28
239 California Baptist 48.5% -0.58 34 31
240 Georgia State 48.4% -0.60 34 29
241 Norfolk State 48.4% -0.60 34 31
242 Chicago State 48.4% -0.61 33 29
243 Charleston Southern 48.4% -0.61 33 27
244 The Citadel 48.4% -0.61 33 29
245 Robert Morris 48.4% -0.61 33 30
246 Niagara 48.4% -0.63 32 31
247 Detroit Mercy 48.3% -0.63 32 32
248 Eastern Kentucky 48.3% -0.64 32 28
249 Northeastern 48.3% -0.64 31 32
250 UC San Diego 48.3% -0.65 31 31
251 Alabama A&M 48.3% -0.66 31 35
252 Montana State 48.3% -0.66 31 32
253 Pacific 48.3% -0.66 30 30
254 UC Davis 48.3% -0.66 30 31
255 Jacksonville 48.2% -0.67 30 30
256 UT Rio Grande Valley 48.2% -0.67 30 29
257 Hawai'i 48.2% -0.67 29 32
258 Saint Peter's 48.2% -0.68 29 32
259 Houston Christian 48.2% -0.68 29 27
260 Green Bay 48.2% -0.69 28 30
261 North Alabama 48.2% -0.69 28 30
262 UC Riverside 48.2% -0.70 28 32
263 Bowling Green 48.2% -0.70 28 32
264 Milwaukee 48.1% -0.71 27 33
265 UMass Lowell 48.1% -0.71 27 29
266 Presbyterian 48.1% -0.71 27 30
267 Hartford 48.1% -0.71 27 1
268 North Florida 48.1% -0.72 26 29
269 Florida Gulf Coast 48.0% -0.75 26 29
270 Oral Roberts 48.0% -0.76 26 28
271 Montana 48.0% -0.77 25 33
272 UL Monroe 48.0% -0.77 25 28
273 Kansas City 48.0% -0.77 25 29
274 Utah Tech 48.0% -0.78 25 30
275 Kennesaw State 48.0% -0.78 24 28
276 Queens University 47.9% -0.80 24 31
277 Canisius 47.9% -0.81 24 31
278 Ball State 47.8% -0.83 23 29
279 Longwood 47.8% -0.86 23 32
280 South Carolina Upstate 47.8% -0.86 23 27
281 SE Louisiana 47.8% -0.87 23 29
282 North Dakota State 47.7% -0.88 22 29
283 Iona 47.7% -0.89 22 33
284 Maryland Eastern Shore 47.7% -0.90 22 25
285 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 47.6% -0.91 22 27
286 North Carolina A&T 47.6% -0.91 21 32
287 Nicholls 47.6% -0.92 21 31
288 Austin Peay 47.6% -0.92 21 32
289 Portland State 47.6% -0.92 20 29
290 Northern Colorado 47.6% -0.93 20 31
291 Northwestern State 47.6% -0.94 20 30
292 Buffalo 47.5% -0.97 20 30
293 North Carolina Central 47.5% -0.97 19 27
294 Eastern Illinois 47.5% -0.98 19 28
295 Purdue Fort Wayne 47.5% -0.99 19 34
296 IU Indianapolis 47.4% -1.00 19 29
297 Campbell 47.4% -1.01 18 29
298 SIU Edwardsville 47.4% -1.01 18 30
299 East Texas A&M 47.4% -1.02 18 30
300 Manhattan 47.4% -1.03 17 29
301 Southern Indiana 47.4% -1.03 17 29
302 UAlbany 47.3% -1.03 17 31
303 Idaho State 47.3% -1.04 17 32
304 North Dakota 47.3% -1.04 16 29
305 Cal State Northridge 47.3% -1.05 16 32
306 Quinnipiac 47.3% -1.05 16 33
307 Idaho 47.3% -1.06 15 30
308 Fairfield 47.3% -1.07 15 36
309 Western Illinois 47.2% -1.08 15 29
310 Marist 47.2% -1.08 15 31
311 Elon 47.2% -1.09 14 30
312 UT Martin 47.2% -1.09 14 28
313 UC Santa Barbara 47.2% -1.09 14 29
314 South Carolina State 47.2% -1.09 14 30
315 Fairleigh Dickinson 47.2% -1.11 13 30
316 Sacramento State 47.2% -1.11 13 32
317 Wagner 47.1% -1.12 13 31
318 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 47.1% -1.13 12 29
319 Central Arkansas 47.1% -1.14 12 30
320 Tennessee State 47.1% -1.14 12 29
321 Bethune-Cookman 47.0% -1.15 12 32
322 St. Thomas-Minnesota 47.0% -1.16 11 30
323 Howard 47.0% -1.16 11 33
324 Cal Poly 47.0% -1.16 11 31
325 Merrimack 47.0% -1.19 10 31
326 Northern Arizona 46.9% -1.20 10 33
327 Hampton 46.9% -1.21 10 30
328 South Dakota 46.9% -1.22 10 29
329 Tennessee Tech 46.8% -1.26 9 28
330 Little Rock 46.8% -1.27 9 34
331 New Orleans 46.8% -1.27 9 29
332 Maine 46.8% -1.27 9 31
333 NJIT 46.7% -1.29 8 27
334 Siena 46.7% -1.29 8 32
335 Morgan State 46.6% -1.32 8 28
336 American University 46.6% -1.32 7 31
337 Incarnate Word 46.6% -1.34 7 29
338 Mount St. Mary's 46.6% -1.35 7 32
339 UMBC 46.5% -1.36 7 31
340 Central Connecticut 46.5% -1.38 6 29
341 Denver 46.5% -1.39 6 30
342 Lamar 46.4% -1.40 6 31
343 Binghamton 46.4% -1.40 6 28
344 Lafayette 46.4% -1.41 5 31
345 Omaha 46.4% -1.43 5 29
346 Le Moyne 46.4% -1.43 5 29
347 William & Mary 46.4% -1.44 4 31
348 Delaware State 46.3% -1.44 4 32
349 Bucknell 46.3% -1.44 4 33
350 Southeast Missouri State 46.2% -1.49 4 27
351 VMI 46.2% -1.49 3 29
352 Lindenwood 46.1% -1.55 3 28
353 Lehigh 46.0% -1.56 3 30
354 Boston University 46.0% -1.59 2 32
355 Loyola Maryland 45.9% -1.62 2 31
356 Sacred Heart 45.8% -1.67 2 30
357 Long Island University 45.7% -1.70 2 29
358 Holy Cross 45.7% -1.70 1 32
359 Coppin State 45.7% -1.71 1 29
360 Stonehill 45.2% -1.90 1 31
361 Navy 45.1% -1.95 1 30
362 Army 45.1% -1.97 0 30
363 Saint Francis 44.7% -2.12 0 28