Let fury have the hour / Anger can be power. "Clampdown" - The Clash

Game Outcomes

Each point is a completed game — x: home team's season-to-date value entering the game, y: away team's. home win home loss

Predicts home win: AUC 0.70 (team entering with the better value wins 65% of games)

Based on 5508 of 5727 completed games where both teams entered with a season-to-date value.

Team Distribution

Season-to-date value for every team, with a density curve.

min 70.2 max 123.3 mean 104.8 std 6.7 (n=363)

Team Rankings

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# Team Offensive Efficiency z Pctl GP
1 UConn 123.3 +2.78 100 40
2 Alabama 121.3 +2.47 100 37
3 Gonzaga 120.4 +2.35 99 34
4 Purdue 119.7 +2.23 99 39
5 Kentucky 119.4 +2.19 99 33
6 Indiana State 118.5 +2.06 99 38
7 Illinois 117.9 +1.97 98 38
8 Wright State 117.8 +1.94 98 30
9 High Point 117.6 +1.92 98 34
10 Arizona 117.0 +1.83 98 36
11 Baylor 116.8 +1.81 97 34
12 Duke 116.8 +1.80 97 36
13 McNeese 116.8 +1.80 97 30
14 BYU 116.6 +1.77 96 34
15 Princeton 116.1 +1.70 96 27
16 Creighton 116.1 +1.69 96 35
17 Auburn 115.8 +1.65 96 35
18 Florida Atlantic 115.7 +1.64 95 34
19 Florida 115.2 +1.57 95 36
20 North Carolina 114.7 +1.48 95 37
21 Dayton 114.6 +1.48 94 33
22 Charleston 114.6 +1.47 94 34
23 Samford 114.5 +1.46 94 33
24 Saint Mary's 114.4 +1.44 94 33
25 James Madison 114.2 +1.41 93 35
26 Lipscomb 114.1 +1.39 93 30
27 Colorado 114.1 +1.39 93 37
28 Iowa 113.7 +1.34 93 34
29 Houston 113.6 +1.33 92 37
30 UNC Wilmington 113.3 +1.28 92 28
31 Drake 113.3 +1.27 92 34
32 Clemson 113.2 +1.26 91 36
33 St. John's 113.1 +1.24 91 33
34 Pittsburgh 112.9 +1.22 91 33
35 Cornell 112.8 +1.20 91 28
36 Montana 112.6 +1.18 90 33
37 Toledo 112.6 +1.18 90 32
38 Wake Forest 112.4 +1.14 90 35
39 Eastern Washington 112.3 +1.13 90 30
40 Wisconsin 112.2 +1.12 89 36
41 Arkansas State 112.2 +1.11 89 37
42 Tennessee 112.2 +1.11 89 36
43 Utah State 112.2 +1.11 88 33
44 Marquette 112.1 +1.09 88 37
45 Nevada 112.0 +1.09 88 33
46 Texas A&M 111.9 +1.06 88 36
47 SMU 111.8 +1.06 87 32
48 Grand Canyon 111.5 +1.01 87 34
49 New Mexico 111.5 +1.01 87 34
50 Texas Tech 111.4 +1.00 86 34
51 Massachusetts 111.3 +0.98 86 31
52 UC San Diego 111.3 +0.98 86 31
53 San Francisco 111.2 +0.97 86 33
54 Northwestern 111.2 +0.96 85 34
55 Chattanooga 111.1 +0.95 85 31
56 Ohio 111.0 +0.94 85 32
57 Nebraska 111.0 +0.94 85 34
58 UAB 110.9 +0.92 84 34
59 Memphis 110.8 +0.90 84 32
60 Ohio State 110.8 +0.90 84 36
61 Youngstown State 110.7 +0.89 83 28
62 Morehead State 110.6 +0.87 83 31
63 Iowa State 110.5 +0.86 83 37
64 Colorado State 110.5 +0.86 83 34
65 St. Thomas-Minnesota 110.5 +0.85 82 30
66 St. Bonaventure 110.4 +0.84 82 33
67 Denver 110.3 +0.82 82 30
68 Minnesota 110.2 +0.82 81 34
69 Boise State 110.2 +0.81 81 31
70 UNC Greensboro 110.2 +0.81 81 30
71 Austin Peay 110.1 +0.81 81 32
72 Texas 110.1 +0.80 80 34
73 South Carolina 110.1 +0.80 80 34
74 South Florida 110.1 +0.80 80 33
75 Milwaukee 110.1 +0.80 80 33
76 Furman 110.1 +0.79 79 30
77 Oakland 110.0 +0.79 79 36
78 TCU 110.0 +0.79 79 34
79 Hofstra 110.0 +0.79 78 32
80 Little Rock 110.0 +0.79 78 34
81 Bradley 109.9 +0.78 78 34
82 Virginia Tech 109.9 +0.77 78 34
83 Stetson 109.9 +0.77 77 32
84 App State 109.9 +0.76 77 32
85 Washington State 109.8 +0.76 77 35
86 Oregon 109.7 +0.74 77 36
87 South Dakota State 109.7 +0.73 76 32
88 Northern Colorado 109.6 +0.72 76 31
89 Utah 109.5 +0.71 76 37
90 Washington 109.5 +0.71 75 32
91 Tulane 109.4 +0.70 75 30
92 Weber State 109.4 +0.69 75 29
93 UC Irvine 109.3 +0.68 75 33
94 Yale 109.3 +0.68 74 31
95 Saint Joseph's 109.3 +0.68 74 35
96 NC State 109.3 +0.68 74 41
97 Oklahoma 109.3 +0.67 73 32
98 George Mason 109.1 +0.65 73 31
99 Santa Clara 109.1 +0.65 73 32
100 Western Carolina 109.0 +0.64 73 29
101 Ole Miss 109.0 +0.64 72 32
102 Michigan State 109.0 +0.63 72 35
103 Boston College 108.9 +0.62 72 36
104 Fairfield 108.9 +0.62 72 36
105 UNLV 108.5 +0.56 71 32
106 Southern Illinois 108.5 +0.56 71 31
107 North Florida 108.5 +0.56 71 29
108 Drexel 108.5 +0.56 70 31
109 San Diego State 108.5 +0.56 70 35
110 Eastern Kentucky 108.5 +0.56 70 28
111 North Dakota 108.4 +0.54 70 29
112 Purdue Fort Wayne 108.4 +0.54 69 34
113 North Texas 108.3 +0.53 69 32
114 Kennesaw State 108.3 +0.52 69 28
115 UNC Asheville 108.2 +0.51 69 31
116 Seton Hall 108.1 +0.50 68 37
117 Butler 107.9 +0.48 68 32
118 Loyola Marymount 107.8 +0.45 68 30
119 Cleveland State 107.8 +0.45 67 35
120 Mississippi State 107.8 +0.45 67 35
121 Cincinnati 107.8 +0.45 67 37
122 Liberty 107.7 +0.45 67 29
123 Miami 107.7 +0.43 66 32
124 UT Martin 107.6 +0.43 66 28
125 LSU 107.6 +0.42 66 33
126 Kansas 107.5 +0.41 65 33
127 Lamar 107.4 +0.40 65 31
128 Belmont 107.4 +0.39 65 32
129 Winthrop 107.4 +0.39 65 29
130 Wofford 107.3 +0.39 64 29
131 Akron 107.3 +0.38 64 33
132 North Alabama 107.3 +0.38 64 30
133 Troy 107.2 +0.36 64 29
134 Louisiana Tech 107.1 +0.35 63 29
135 Radford 107.1 +0.35 63 31
136 Villanova 107.0 +0.34 63 34
137 VCU 107.0 +0.33 62 38
138 Kent State 107.0 +0.33 62 32
139 Pennsylvania 106.9 +0.32 62 27
140 Delaware 106.9 +0.31 62 32
141 Charlotte 106.8 +0.31 61 30
142 American University 106.8 +0.30 61 31
143 UTSA 106.7 +0.29 61 31
144 Louisiana 106.7 +0.29 60 31
145 Northern Iowa 106.7 +0.28 60 32
146 UMass Lowell 106.5 +0.26 60 29
147 Saint Louis 106.5 +0.26 60 32
148 Quinnipiac 106.5 +0.26 59 33
149 North Dakota State 106.5 +0.26 59 29
150 Penn State 106.4 +0.25 59 33
151 Colgate 106.4 +0.25 59 34
152 Vermont 106.4 +0.24 58 33
153 Howard 106.2 +0.22 58 33
154 Monmouth 106.2 +0.21 58 33
155 Richmond 106.2 +0.21 57 33
156 Pepperdine 106.2 +0.21 57 30
157 Columbia 106.1 +0.21 57 24
158 Xavier 106.1 +0.20 57 34
159 Idaho State 106.1 +0.20 56 32
160 Arkansas 106.0 +0.19 56 33
161 Stanford 106.0 +0.19 56 32
162 Florida Gulf Coast 106.0 +0.18 56 29
163 Tarleton State 106.0 +0.18 55 32
164 Stony Brook 105.9 +0.18 55 34
165 Omaha 105.9 +0.17 55 29
166 Longwood 105.7 +0.15 54 32
167 George Washington 105.7 +0.14 54 31
168 UT Arlington 105.6 +0.13 54 32
169 UC Santa Barbara 105.6 +0.13 54 29
170 Montana State 105.6 +0.12 53 32
171 Northeastern 105.5 +0.12 53 32
172 Ball State 105.5 +0.11 53 29
173 Northern Kentucky 105.4 +0.10 52 31
174 Hawai'i 105.4 +0.10 52 32
175 North Carolina Central 105.4 +0.09 52 27
176 Missouri 105.3 +0.09 52 32
177 Queens University 105.3 +0.08 51 31
178 Murray State 105.3 +0.08 51 31
179 Wyoming 105.3 +0.08 51 30
180 Florida State 105.2 +0.07 51 33
181 Georgia State 105.2 +0.06 50 29
182 USC 105.1 +0.05 50 33
183 Georgia 105.0 +0.04 50 37
184 Alcorn State 105.0 +0.03 49 31
185 Syracuse 104.9 +0.03 49 31
186 Norfolk State 104.9 +0.02 49 31
187 Green Bay 104.8 +0.01 49 30
188 Seattle U 104.8 +0.01 48 36
189 Iona 104.8 +0.01 48 33
190 Providence 104.8 +0.00 48 35
191 Michigan 104.8 +0.00 48 32
192 Long Beach State 104.8 -0.00 47 34
193 South Dakota 104.8 -0.00 47 29
194 Duquesne 104.7 -0.01 47 36
195 Western Kentucky 104.7 -0.01 46 31
196 Nicholls 104.7 -0.02 46 31
197 La Salle 104.6 -0.02 46 32
198 Georgetown 104.6 -0.03 46 32
199 UMBC 104.6 -0.03 45 31
200 Towson 104.5 -0.05 45 33
201 Indiana 104.4 -0.06 45 33
202 UAlbany 104.3 -0.07 44 31
203 Oral Roberts 104.3 -0.07 44 28
204 Mercer 104.3 -0.07 44 30
205 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 104.2 -0.08 44 27
206 Elon 104.1 -0.09 43 30
207 Niagara 104.1 -0.10 43 31
208 Rhode Island 103.9 -0.13 43 31
209 Rice 103.9 -0.13 43 31
210 East Carolina 103.9 -0.13 42 32
211 Georgia Southern 103.9 -0.13 42 33
212 Presbyterian 103.9 -0.14 42 30
213 Mount St. Mary's 103.9 -0.14 41 32
214 Air Force 103.8 -0.15 41 31
215 California 103.7 -0.15 41 32
216 Central Connecticut 103.7 -0.16 41 29
217 Bowling Green 103.7 -0.16 40 32
218 South Alabama 103.6 -0.18 40 29
219 Robert Morris 103.5 -0.19 40 30
220 UC Davis 103.5 -0.19 40 31
221 Brown 103.4 -0.20 39 30
222 Wichita State 103.4 -0.21 39 33
223 Sacred Heart 103.4 -0.21 39 30
224 Kansas City 103.3 -0.23 38 29
225 UCF 103.2 -0.24 38 33
226 Loyola Chicago 103.1 -0.25 38 32
227 Missouri State 103.0 -0.26 38 33
228 Jacksonville 103.0 -0.26 37 30
229 Oklahoma State 102.9 -0.28 37 32
230 The Citadel 102.9 -0.28 37 29
231 Sam Houston 102.8 -0.29 36 31
232 Campbell 102.8 -0.29 36 29
233 SIU Edwardsville 102.8 -0.29 36 30
234 San José State 102.7 -0.31 36 31
235 Maryland 102.6 -0.33 35 33
236 Davidson 102.5 -0.33 35 30
237 Tulsa 102.5 -0.33 35 30
238 Harvard 102.5 -0.33 35 26
239 Georgia Tech 102.5 -0.34 34 32
240 East Tennessee State 102.5 -0.34 34 33
241 Southern Utah 102.4 -0.35 34 29
242 Kansas State 102.4 -0.35 33 34
243 Virginia 102.4 -0.35 33 34
244 UC Riverside 102.4 -0.36 33 32
245 William & Mary 102.2 -0.38 33 31
246 Gardner-Webb 102.0 -0.42 32 30
247 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 102.0 -0.42 32 29
248 Portland 101.9 -0.42 32 31
249 California Baptist 101.9 -0.43 31 31
250 Northern Illinois 101.8 -0.44 31 29
251 Rider 101.8 -0.44 31 31
252 Louisville 101.8 -0.44 31 32
253 Illinois State 101.7 -0.46 30 31
254 Temple 101.6 -0.47 30 35
255 Le Moyne 101.5 -0.49 30 29
256 Binghamton 101.4 -0.50 30 28
257 UCLA 101.2 -0.53 29 32
258 Oregon State 101.2 -0.53 29 31
259 Jackson State 101.2 -0.53 29 32
260 Miami (OH) 101.2 -0.54 28 30
261 West Virginia 101.1 -0.55 28 32
262 Portland State 101.0 -0.56 28 29
263 Jacksonville State 101.0 -0.56 28 29
264 Tennessee State 101.0 -0.57 27 29
265 Southern Miss 100.9 -0.58 27 30
266 Cal State Northridge 100.9 -0.58 27 32
267 Bellarmine 100.8 -0.59 27 28
268 Marshall 100.7 -0.60 26 32
269 Cal State Bakersfield 100.7 -0.60 26 30
270 Fresno State 100.6 -0.63 26 32
271 Stephen F. Austin 100.5 -0.63 25 31
272 Canisius 100.5 -0.63 25 31
273 Bucknell 100.5 -0.64 25 33
274 Lehigh 100.4 -0.65 25 30
275 Western Michigan 100.4 -0.66 24 31
276 San Diego 100.3 -0.67 24 31
277 Idaho 100.2 -0.68 24 30
278 Bryant 100.2 -0.69 23 31
279 Fordham 100.1 -0.69 23 33
280 Coastal Carolina 100.1 -0.70 23 29
281 Holy Cross 100.0 -0.71 23 32
282 Navy 99.8 -0.74 22 30
283 Vanderbilt 99.7 -0.76 22 32
284 Evansville 99.7 -0.76 22 34
285 UIC 99.6 -0.77 22 32
286 SE Louisiana 99.5 -0.79 21 29
287 Fairleigh Dickinson 99.4 -0.80 21 30
288 Central Arkansas 99.4 -0.81 21 30
289 Western Illinois 99.3 -0.82 20 29
290 Florida International 99.2 -0.84 20 32
291 Marist 99.1 -0.84 20 31
292 New Hampshire 99.0 -0.86 20 30
293 Bethune-Cookman 99.0 -0.86 19 32
294 Old Dominion 99.0 -0.87 19 31
295 Texas Southern 99.0 -0.87 19 32
296 South Carolina State 98.8 -0.89 19 30
297 Abilene Christian 98.8 -0.89 18 33
298 Sacramento State 98.8 -0.89 18 32
299 Boston University 98.7 -0.90 18 32
300 Merrimack 98.5 -0.94 17 31
301 Cal State Fullerton 98.4 -0.95 17 30
302 Saint Peter's 98.4 -0.95 17 32
303 Northern Arizona 98.3 -0.96 17 33
304 Eastern Michigan 98.3 -0.97 16 29
305 Northwestern State 98.2 -0.98 16 30
306 Notre Dame 98.1 -1.00 16 33
307 UL Monroe 98.0 -1.01 15 28
308 Texas State 97.9 -1.02 15 33
309 New Orleans 97.9 -1.03 15 29
310 Utah Valley 97.9 -1.03 15 30
311 Incarnate Word 97.7 -1.06 14 29
312 Chicago State 97.7 -1.06 14 29
313 Arizona State 97.5 -1.09 14 32
314 Utah Tech 97.5 -1.09 14 30
315 Wagner 97.5 -1.09 13 31
316 Grambling 97.4 -1.11 13 33
317 Hampton 97.3 -1.11 13 30
318 Eastern Illinois 97.3 -1.12 12 27
319 UTEP 97.2 -1.13 12 31
320 Morgan State 97.2 -1.13 12 28
321 Maine 97.1 -1.14 12 31
322 Central Michigan 97.0 -1.15 11 31
323 Southern 97.0 -1.16 11 29
324 Valparaiso 96.7 -1.20 11 31
325 North Carolina A&T 96.4 -1.25 10 32
326 South Carolina Upstate 96.4 -1.26 10 27
327 NJIT 96.2 -1.28 10 27
328 Prairie View A&M 95.8 -1.34 10 29
329 Tennessee Tech 95.7 -1.35 9 28
330 Alabama A&M 95.7 -1.35 9 35
331 Delaware State 95.7 -1.35 9 32
332 New Mexico State 95.7 -1.36 9 28
333 Detroit Mercy 95.6 -1.38 8 32
334 Southern Indiana 95.6 -1.38 8 29
335 Buffalo 95.5 -1.39 8 30
336 East Texas A&M 95.3 -1.41 7 30
337 Saint Francis 95.3 -1.42 7 28
338 Rutgers 95.0 -1.45 7 32
339 Charleston Southern 95.0 -1.46 7 27
340 DePaul 94.6 -1.52 6 32
341 Loyola Maryland 94.6 -1.52 6 31
342 Lafayette 94.4 -1.55 6 31
343 Middle Tennessee 94.3 -1.57 6 31
344 Houston Christian 94.2 -1.57 5 27
345 IU Indianapolis 94.0 -1.62 5 29
346 Army 93.7 -1.65 5 30
347 Manhattan 93.7 -1.66 4 29
348 Cal Poly 93.5 -1.69 4 31
349 Alabama State 93.5 -1.69 4 29
350 UT Rio Grande Valley 93.3 -1.72 4 29
351 Florida A&M 92.6 -1.83 3 27
352 Long Island University 92.3 -1.87 3 29
353 Lindenwood 91.9 -1.93 3 28
354 Pacific 91.8 -1.94 2 30
355 Dartmouth 91.8 -1.94 2 25
356 Southeast Missouri State 91.7 -1.95 2 27
357 Stonehill 91.5 -1.99 2 31
358 Maryland Eastern Shore 90.6 -2.12 1 25
359 Siena 90.2 -2.18 1 32
360 VMI 89.3 -2.31 1 29
361 Coppin State 85.3 -2.91 1 28
362 Mississippi Valley State 83.5 -3.17 0 31
363 Hartford 70.2 -5.17 0 1