Can I kick it? Yes you can. "Can I Kick It?" - A Tribe Called Quest

Game Outcomes

Each point is a completed game — x: home team's season-to-date value entering the game, y: away team's. home win home loss

Weak standalone predictor of the winner.

Based on 5508 of 5727 completed games where both teams entered with a season-to-date value.

Team Distribution

Season-to-date value for every team, with a density curve.

min 7.4% max 34.9% mean 23.6% std 3.7% (n=363)

Team Rankings

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# Team Free Throw Rate z Pctl GP
1 Grand Canyon 34.9% +3.07 100 34
2 Winthrop 34.8% +3.03 100 29
3 Arkansas 34.2% +2.87 99 33
4 Alabama A&M 34.1% +2.84 99 35
5 High Point 33.8% +2.75 99 34
6 Tulane 33.2% +2.61 99 30
7 Nevada 32.5% +2.40 98 33
8 Howard 31.6% +2.17 98 33
9 UNC Asheville 30.6% +1.90 98 31
10 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 30.5% +1.87 98 27
11 Eastern Washington 30.5% +1.86 97 30
12 Norfolk State 30.4% +1.85 97 31
13 Troy 30.2% +1.78 97 29
14 UAB 30.2% +1.78 96 34
15 Tulsa 29.9% +1.72 96 30
16 Stephen F. Austin 29.7% +1.66 96 31
17 Purdue 29.7% +1.66 96 39
18 Omaha 29.7% +1.65 95 29
19 UMass Lowell 29.6% +1.64 95 29
20 Ball State 29.6% +1.62 95 29
21 Baylor 29.6% +1.62 94 34
22 UC Santa Barbara 29.5% +1.61 94 29
23 Louisiana Tech 29.4% +1.58 94 29
24 Maryland 29.4% +1.57 94 33
25 UTEP 29.4% +1.57 93 31
26 UT Rio Grande Valley 29.3% +1.55 93 29
27 Tennessee State 29.1% +1.49 93 29
28 Louisville 29.0% +1.46 93 32
29 Bethune-Cookman 29.0% +1.45 92 32
30 UT Arlington 28.8% +1.42 92 32
31 UC Davis 28.6% +1.37 92 31
32 Auburn 28.6% +1.36 91 35
33 Wyoming 28.5% +1.32 91 30
34 Hawai'i 28.4% +1.30 91 32
35 North Carolina Central 28.2% +1.24 91 27
36 Utah State 28.0% +1.20 90 33
37 Delaware State 28.0% +1.19 90 32
38 Oklahoma 28.0% +1.19 90 32
39 Southern Indiana 28.0% +1.19 90 29
40 McNeese 27.9% +1.17 89 30
41 South Florida 27.9% +1.17 89 33
42 Lindenwood 27.9% +1.16 89 28
43 New Orleans 27.8% +1.13 88 29
44 Abilene Christian 27.7% +1.12 88 33
45 LSU 27.7% +1.11 88 33
46 Cal State Fullerton 27.7% +1.10 88 30
47 Southern Illinois 27.6% +1.09 87 31
48 Kansas State 27.6% +1.08 87 34
49 North Carolina 27.5% +1.06 87 37
50 Colorado 27.5% +1.06 86 37
51 Florida 27.5% +1.05 86 36
52 Grambling 27.5% +1.05 86 33
53 Saint Louis 27.4% +1.05 86 32
54 Longwood 27.4% +1.02 85 32
55 VCU 27.3% +1.02 85 38
56 Nicholls 27.3% +1.01 85 31
57 Texas A&M 27.3% +1.01 85 36
58 Saint Peter's 27.3% +1.01 84 32
59 Illinois 27.3% +1.00 84 38
60 Alabama 27.3% +0.99 84 37
61 George Mason 27.2% +0.98 83 31
62 Dayton 27.2% +0.97 83 33
63 Niagara 27.0% +0.91 83 31
64 Chicago State 26.9% +0.89 83 29
65 Incarnate Word 26.8% +0.87 82 29
66 Southern Miss 26.8% +0.87 82 30
67 San Diego State 26.8% +0.87 82 35
68 Long Beach State 26.8% +0.86 81 34
69 Alcorn State 26.7% +0.86 81 31
70 Northern Iowa 26.7% +0.84 81 32
71 Texas Tech 26.7% +0.83 81 34
72 Toledo 26.6% +0.83 80 32
73 Indiana State 26.5% +0.80 80 38
74 Charlotte 26.5% +0.79 80 30
75 Prairie View A&M 26.5% +0.78 80 29
76 Penn State 26.4% +0.76 79 33
77 Southern Utah 26.3% +0.74 79 29
78 Georgia 26.3% +0.74 79 37
79 Memphis 26.3% +0.74 78 32
80 UCLA 26.2% +0.71 78 32
81 Texas State 26.2% +0.71 78 33
82 Oregon State 26.2% +0.71 78 31
83 Virginia Tech 26.2% +0.71 77 34
84 West Virginia 26.2% +0.70 77 32
85 Samford 26.1% +0.68 77 33
86 UCF 26.1% +0.67 77 33
87 Arizona 26.1% +0.67 76 36
88 Florida State 26.1% +0.67 76 33
89 Boise State 26.0% +0.65 76 31
90 SE Louisiana 25.9% +0.63 75 29
91 Weber State 25.9% +0.63 75 29
92 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 25.9% +0.62 75 29
93 Ohio State 25.9% +0.62 75 36
94 Illinois State 25.9% +0.62 74 31
95 Jacksonville State 25.7% +0.57 74 29
96 Utah Tech 25.6% +0.56 74 30
97 TCU 25.6% +0.55 73 34
98 UC Irvine 25.6% +0.55 73 33
99 Iowa 25.6% +0.54 73 34
100 Jacksonville 25.6% +0.54 73 30
101 Seattle U 25.6% +0.54 72 36
102 Wisconsin 25.5% +0.53 72 36
103 Ole Miss 25.5% +0.53 72 32
104 Wright State 25.5% +0.52 72 30
105 UL Monroe 25.5% +0.52 71 28
106 George Washington 25.5% +0.52 71 31
107 Rhode Island 25.5% +0.51 71 31
108 Cal State Northridge 25.4% +0.50 70 32
109 Wake Forest 25.4% +0.50 70 35
110 South Carolina State 25.4% +0.49 70 30
111 North Alabama 25.4% +0.49 70 30
112 Tennessee 25.3% +0.47 69 36
113 UT Martin 25.3% +0.46 69 28
114 California Baptist 25.3% +0.46 69 31
115 Northern Kentucky 25.2% +0.44 69 31
116 UNC Wilmington 25.2% +0.42 68 28
117 Harvard 25.1% +0.42 68 26
118 Missouri 25.1% +0.42 68 32
119 Florida Atlantic 25.1% +0.42 67 34
120 Merrimack 25.1% +0.41 67 31
121 Denver 25.1% +0.41 67 30
122 Milwaukee 25.1% +0.40 67 33
123 Mississippi State 25.1% +0.40 66 35
124 UTSA 25.0% +0.39 66 31
125 Sam Houston 25.0% +0.39 66 31
126 Indiana 25.0% +0.38 65 33
127 Massachusetts 25.0% +0.38 65 31
128 St. Bonaventure 24.9% +0.37 65 33
129 Vanderbilt 24.9% +0.37 65 32
130 Navy 24.9% +0.35 64 30
131 Bowling Green 24.9% +0.35 64 32
132 Iowa State 24.8% +0.33 64 37
133 Duke 24.8% +0.33 64 36
134 Nebraska 24.8% +0.33 63 34
135 Northern Illinois 24.7% +0.29 63 29
136 Syracuse 24.6% +0.28 63 31
137 DePaul 24.6% +0.27 62 32
138 Little Rock 24.6% +0.26 62 34
139 James Madison 24.5% +0.24 62 35
140 Middle Tennessee 24.5% +0.24 62 31
141 Drake 24.4% +0.23 61 34
142 Presbyterian 24.4% +0.23 61 30
143 Jackson State 24.4% +0.23 61 32
144 Lehigh 24.4% +0.23 60 30
145 Davidson 24.4% +0.22 60 30
146 Northwestern State 24.3% +0.20 60 30
147 UNLV 24.3% +0.19 60 32
148 Fairleigh Dickinson 24.3% +0.19 59 30
149 Stetson 24.3% +0.19 59 32
150 Lamar 24.3% +0.19 59 31
151 North Carolina A&T 24.2% +0.18 59 32
152 Campbell 24.2% +0.17 58 29
153 Georgetown 24.2% +0.17 58 32
154 Seton Hall 24.1% +0.15 58 37
155 UC San Diego 24.1% +0.14 57 31
156 Rider 24.0% +0.13 57 31
157 IU Indianapolis 24.0% +0.12 57 29
158 Pacific 24.0% +0.11 57 30
159 Clemson 24.0% +0.11 56 36
160 Kennesaw State 24.0% +0.11 56 28
161 Minnesota 23.9% +0.10 56 34
162 Colorado State 23.9% +0.09 56 34
163 Queens University 23.8% +0.07 55 31
164 The Citadel 23.8% +0.07 55 29
165 Utah Valley 23.8% +0.05 55 30
166 Morgan State 23.8% +0.05 54 28
167 UConn 23.7% +0.04 54 40
168 Southern 23.7% +0.04 54 29
169 Houston Christian 23.7% +0.04 54 27
170 Oklahoma State 23.7% +0.03 53 32
171 Xavier 23.7% +0.03 53 34
172 Akron 23.7% +0.02 53 33
173 New Mexico 23.6% +0.01 52 34
174 South Alabama 23.6% +0.01 52 29
175 Sacramento State 23.6% +0.01 52 32
176 Portland State 23.6% +0.01 52 29
177 Kent State 23.5% -0.01 51 32
178 Kentucky 23.5% -0.02 51 33
179 Quinnipiac 23.4% -0.04 51 33
180 Kansas 23.4% -0.04 51 33
181 NC State 23.4% -0.04 50 41
182 East Carolina 23.4% -0.05 50 32
183 Ohio 23.4% -0.05 50 32
184 Central Connecticut 23.3% -0.07 49 29
185 Maryland Eastern Shore 23.3% -0.08 49 25
186 USC 23.3% -0.08 49 33
187 Fordham 23.3% -0.08 49 33
188 Duquesne 23.3% -0.08 48 36
189 Tarleton State 23.2% -0.10 48 32
190 Washington 23.2% -0.11 48 32
191 Elon 23.2% -0.11 48 30
192 SIU Edwardsville 23.2% -0.11 47 30
193 Pepperdine 23.2% -0.11 47 30
194 Chattanooga 23.1% -0.12 47 31
195 Oakland 23.1% -0.12 46 36
196 Cal State Bakersfield 23.1% -0.12 46 30
197 Binghamton 23.1% -0.13 46 28
198 Western Kentucky 23.1% -0.13 46 31
199 Arkansas State 23.1% -0.13 45 37
200 San Diego 23.1% -0.13 45 31
201 Oregon 23.0% -0.15 45 36
202 Charleston Southern 23.0% -0.16 44 27
203 Idaho State 23.0% -0.16 44 32
204 Montana 23.0% -0.16 44 33
205 Providence 23.0% -0.16 44 35
206 Towson 22.9% -0.19 43 33
207 South Dakota 22.9% -0.19 43 29
208 Texas 22.8% -0.20 43 34
209 Furman 22.8% -0.20 43 30
210 East Tennessee State 22.8% -0.21 42 33
211 Temple 22.8% -0.22 42 35
212 Austin Peay 22.7% -0.23 42 32
213 Loyola Chicago 22.7% -0.23 41 32
214 Princeton 22.7% -0.24 41 27
215 Coppin State 22.7% -0.25 41 28
216 North Dakota 22.7% -0.25 41 29
217 South Carolina 22.6% -0.25 40 34
218 Portland 22.6% -0.26 40 31
219 Gardner-Webb 22.6% -0.26 40 30
220 Youngstown State 22.6% -0.27 40 28
221 Santa Clara 22.6% -0.27 39 32
222 Michigan 22.5% -0.28 39 32
223 Texas Southern 22.5% -0.29 39 32
224 New Mexico State 22.4% -0.32 38 28
225 Missouri State 22.4% -0.33 38 33
226 Gonzaga 22.3% -0.34 38 34
227 Northeastern 22.3% -0.34 38 32
228 Montana State 22.3% -0.35 37 32
229 Detroit Mercy 22.3% -0.36 37 32
230 William & Mary 22.3% -0.36 37 31
231 Washington State 22.2% -0.36 36 35
232 Western Illinois 22.2% -0.38 36 29
233 New Hampshire 22.2% -0.39 36 30
234 Belmont 22.1% -0.39 36 32
235 Sacred Heart 22.1% -0.39 35 30
236 North Florida 22.1% -0.39 35 29
237 Tennessee Tech 22.1% -0.39 35 28
238 NJIT 22.0% -0.41 35 27
239 Northwestern 22.0% -0.43 34 34
240 Central Arkansas 22.0% -0.43 34 30
241 Cal Poly 22.0% -0.44 34 31
242 North Dakota State 21.9% -0.44 33 29
243 Coastal Carolina 21.9% -0.45 33 29
244 Eastern Kentucky 21.9% -0.45 33 28
245 Morehead State 21.9% -0.46 33 31
246 Boston University 21.8% -0.47 32 32
247 Delaware 21.8% -0.48 32 32
248 Miami (OH) 21.8% -0.48 32 30
249 Stony Brook 21.8% -0.49 31 34
250 App State 21.7% -0.50 31 32
251 Mississippi Valley State 21.7% -0.50 31 31
252 Drexel 21.7% -0.50 31 31
253 Arizona State 21.7% -0.51 30 32
254 Northern Arizona 21.7% -0.52 30 33
255 Villanova 21.6% -0.52 30 34
256 Rutgers 21.6% -0.52 30 32
257 Georgia State 21.6% -0.52 29 29
258 South Dakota State 21.6% -0.53 29 32
259 Maine 21.6% -0.53 29 31
260 Pittsburgh 21.6% -0.53 28 33
261 Brown 21.6% -0.54 28 30
262 Fairfield 21.5% -0.56 28 36
263 Columbia 21.5% -0.57 28 24
264 Green Bay 21.4% -0.59 27 30
265 Lipscomb 21.4% -0.60 27 30
266 North Texas 21.3% -0.61 27 32
267 Kansas City 21.3% -0.61 27 29
268 St. Thomas-Minnesota 21.3% -0.62 26 30
269 Long Island University 21.3% -0.62 26 29
270 East Texas A&M 21.3% -0.62 26 30
271 California 21.2% -0.64 25 32
272 Georgia Southern 21.2% -0.65 25 33
273 UAlbany 21.1% -0.66 25 31
274 Louisiana 21.1% -0.66 25 31
275 Houston 21.1% -0.66 24 37
276 Loyola Marymount 21.1% -0.66 24 30
277 Purdue Fort Wayne 21.1% -0.68 24 34
278 Butler 21.1% -0.68 23 32
279 Vermont 21.0% -0.70 23 33
280 Hampton 21.0% -0.70 23 30
281 Monmouth 20.9% -0.72 23 33
282 Stanford 20.8% -0.74 22 32
283 Saint Joseph's 20.8% -0.74 22 35
284 Bucknell 20.8% -0.75 22 33
285 Rice 20.8% -0.75 22 31
286 Marist 20.8% -0.76 21 31
287 Notre Dame 20.7% -0.77 21 33
288 Fresno State 20.7% -0.77 21 32
289 Cleveland State 20.7% -0.77 20 35
290 Michigan State 20.7% -0.78 20 35
291 Georgia Tech 20.7% -0.78 20 32
292 Murray State 20.7% -0.78 20 31
293 Cornell 20.5% -0.82 19 28
294 American University 20.5% -0.82 19 31
295 Siena 20.5% -0.82 19 32
296 Alabama State 20.5% -0.83 19 29
297 Radford 20.5% -0.83 18 31
298 Evansville 20.4% -0.85 18 34
299 UC Riverside 20.4% -0.86 18 32
300 Marshall 20.3% -0.87 17 32
301 Northern Colorado 20.2% -0.90 17 31
302 Bradley 20.2% -0.90 17 34
303 Richmond 20.2% -0.91 17 33
304 Air Force 20.2% -0.91 16 31
305 Robert Morris 20.1% -0.94 16 30
306 Eastern Illinois 20.1% -0.94 16 27
307 UNC Greensboro 19.9% -0.98 15 30
308 Bryant 19.9% -1.00 15 31
309 St. John's 19.9% -1.00 15 33
310 Idaho 19.8% -1.02 15 30
311 Western Carolina 19.7% -1.04 14 29
312 Saint Francis 19.7% -1.04 14 28
313 Charleston 19.7% -1.05 14 34
314 SMU 19.6% -1.07 14 32
315 Western Michigan 19.6% -1.07 13 31
316 Yale 19.6% -1.08 13 31
317 Oral Roberts 19.6% -1.08 13 28
318 Florida A&M 19.4% -1.12 12 27
319 Creighton 19.4% -1.12 12 35
320 VMI 19.4% -1.12 12 29
321 Mount St. Mary's 19.3% -1.15 12 32
322 Le Moyne 19.3% -1.15 11 29
323 Loyola Maryland 19.3% -1.16 11 31
324 Florida Gulf Coast 19.0% -1.22 11 29
325 Cincinnati 19.0% -1.23 10 37
326 BYU 18.8% -1.28 10 34
327 Florida International 18.8% -1.28 10 32
328 Saint Mary's 18.8% -1.29 10 33
329 Boston College 18.7% -1.30 9 36
330 Dartmouth 18.7% -1.31 9 25
331 Colgate 18.7% -1.31 9 34
332 South Carolina Upstate 18.7% -1.33 9 27
333 Iona 18.6% -1.34 8 33
334 Wagner 18.5% -1.37 8 31
335 Pennsylvania 18.5% -1.37 8 27
336 Buffalo 18.5% -1.38 7 30
337 Southeast Missouri State 18.5% -1.38 7 27
338 Miami 18.4% -1.41 7 32
339 Mercer 18.4% -1.41 7 30
340 Wichita State 18.3% -1.42 6 33
341 Central Michigan 18.1% -1.48 6 31
342 UIC 18.0% -1.51 6 32
343 Marquette 18.0% -1.52 6 37
344 La Salle 17.9% -1.53 5 32
345 Old Dominion 17.9% -1.53 5 31
346 San Francisco 17.8% -1.56 5 33
347 Liberty 17.7% -1.60 4 29
348 Utah 17.6% -1.62 4 37
349 Wofford 17.3% -1.69 4 29
350 Holy Cross 17.3% -1.70 4 32
351 UMBC 17.1% -1.76 3 31
352 Canisius 17.0% -1.77 3 31
353 Valparaiso 16.9% -1.81 3 31
354 Hofstra 16.8% -1.82 2 32
355 Eastern Michigan 16.8% -1.84 2 29
356 Bellarmine 16.6% -1.88 2 28
357 Lafayette 16.3% -1.97 2 31
358 Virginia 16.1% -2.02 1 34
359 Stonehill 16.0% -2.05 1 31
360 Manhattan 15.9% -2.07 1 29
361 San José State 15.7% -2.14 1 31
362 Army 15.2% -2.26 0 30
363 Hartford 7.4% -4.37 0 1