Hallelujah, here she comes. "Skateaway" - Dire Straits

Game Outcomes

Each point is a completed game — x: home team's season-to-date value entering the game, y: away team's. home win home loss

Weak standalone predictor of the winner.

Based on 5508 of 5727 completed games where both teams entered with a season-to-date value.

Team Distribution

Season-to-date value for every team, with a density curve.

min 24.2% max 54.7% mean 37.3% std 5.3% (n=363)

Team Rankings

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# Team Three-Point Attempt Rate z Pctl GP
1 North Florida 54.7% +3.31 100 29
2 Princeton 50.5% +2.50 100 27
3 Chattanooga 50.5% +2.50 99 31
4 BYU 50.4% +2.50 99 34
5 Indiana State 49.5% +2.31 99 38
6 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 49.4% +2.31 99 27
7 Cornell 48.6% +2.15 98 28
8 Creighton 48.5% +2.12 98 35
9 Furman 48.2% +2.08 98 30
10 Green Bay 48.2% +2.06 98 30
11 Hartford 48.1% +2.06 97 1
12 Villanova 48.0% +2.03 97 34
13 Saint Joseph's 47.8% +1.99 97 35
14 William & Mary 47.7% +1.98 96 31
15 Le Moyne 47.5% +1.94 96 29
16 Air Force 47.2% +1.88 96 31
17 Charleston 46.9% +1.82 96 34
18 Liberty 46.8% +1.80 95 29
19 Stonehill 46.6% +1.78 95 31
20 Alabama 46.5% +1.74 95 37
21 Hofstra 46.1% +1.67 94 32
22 East Texas A&M 46.0% +1.66 94 30
23 St. Thomas-Minnesota 46.0% +1.65 94 30
24 Wofford 45.3% +1.51 94 29
25 Army 45.1% +1.48 93 30
26 Morehead State 45.1% +1.48 93 31
27 Bucknell 44.9% +1.45 93 33
28 American University 44.9% +1.44 93 31
29 Georgia Southern 44.5% +1.38 92 33
30 UTSA 44.5% +1.37 92 31
31 Portland 44.5% +1.37 92 31
32 Pittsburgh 44.4% +1.34 91 33
33 Dayton 44.3% +1.34 91 33
34 Providence 44.3% +1.33 91 35
35 Nebraska 44.3% +1.33 91 34
36 VCU 44.2% +1.32 90 38
37 UNC Greensboro 44.0% +1.28 90 30
38 Vermont 43.9% +1.26 90 33
39 Southern Illinois 43.8% +1.24 90 31
40 New Hampshire 43.7% +1.22 89 30
41 Elon 43.7% +1.21 89 30
42 Kansas City 43.4% +1.16 89 29
43 Notre Dame 43.3% +1.14 88 33
44 Oklahoma State 43.2% +1.13 88 32
45 Merrimack 43.1% +1.11 88 31
46 Pennsylvania 43.1% +1.10 88 27
47 UT Arlington 42.8% +1.06 87 32
48 Arkansas State 42.8% +1.05 87 37
49 Dartmouth 42.7% +1.03 87 25
50 Robert Morris 42.6% +1.01 86 30
51 Purdue Fort Wayne 42.6% +1.00 86 34
52 Kennesaw State 42.5% +1.00 86 28
53 Hawai'i 42.4% +0.98 86 32
54 South Florida 42.3% +0.95 85 33
55 Youngstown State 42.2% +0.94 85 28
56 Fordham 42.2% +0.93 85 33
57 UC Riverside 42.2% +0.93 85 32
58 Temple 42.1% +0.92 84 35
59 Middle Tennessee 42.1% +0.91 84 31
60 Oral Roberts 42.0% +0.90 84 28
61 San José State 42.0% +0.89 83 31
62 Fairfield 42.0% +0.89 83 36
63 California 42.0% +0.89 83 32
64 Eastern Washington 42.0% +0.89 83 30
65 Belmont 41.9% +0.87 82 32
66 North Dakota 41.8% +0.86 82 29
67 Montana State 41.7% +0.84 82 32
68 UC San Diego 41.7% +0.83 81 31
69 Stetson 41.7% +0.83 81 32
70 George Washington 41.6% +0.83 81 31
71 Bradley 41.6% +0.83 81 34
72 Florida International 41.6% +0.83 80 32
73 Virginia Tech 41.6% +0.81 80 34
74 Akron 41.6% +0.81 80 33
75 Ohio 41.4% +0.78 80 32
76 Texas Tech 41.4% +0.78 79 34
77 Oakland 41.3% +0.76 79 36
78 Marshall 41.3% +0.76 79 32
79 Sacramento State 41.3% +0.76 78 32
80 Buffalo 41.3% +0.75 78 30
81 Samford 41.2% +0.74 78 33
82 Kansas State 41.2% +0.74 78 34
83 Tennessee 41.2% +0.73 77 36
84 Marquette 41.1% +0.73 77 37
85 Tulsa 41.1% +0.73 77 30
86 South Carolina 41.1% +0.72 77 34
87 Denver 41.0% +0.71 76 30
88 Stanford 41.0% +0.71 76 32
89 Georgetown 41.0% +0.71 76 32
90 Idaho 41.0% +0.71 75 30
91 East Tennessee State 40.9% +0.69 75 33
92 Boston University 40.8% +0.66 75 32
93 UIC 40.8% +0.66 75 32
94 Queens University 40.7% +0.65 74 31
95 Brown 40.7% +0.64 74 30
96 Georgia Tech 40.5% +0.62 74 32
97 Loyola Chicago 40.5% +0.61 73 32
98 Miami 40.4% +0.59 73 32
99 Utah 40.4% +0.59 73 37
100 South Dakota State 40.4% +0.59 73 32
101 Miami (OH) 40.3% +0.57 72 30
102 Nicholls 40.3% +0.57 72 31
103 Georgia 40.2% +0.56 72 37
104 UConn 40.2% +0.55 72 40
105 San Francisco 40.1% +0.54 71 33
106 South Carolina Upstate 40.1% +0.54 71 27
107 Troy 40.0% +0.52 71 29
108 Lafayette 40.0% +0.52 70 31
109 Davidson 40.0% +0.52 70 30
110 Clemson 39.9% +0.50 70 36
111 Loyola Marymount 39.9% +0.49 70 30
112 Lipscomb 39.8% +0.47 69 30
113 La Salle 39.8% +0.47 69 32
114 Missouri 39.7% +0.46 69 32
115 Incarnate Word 39.7% +0.46 69 29
116 UNC Wilmington 39.7% +0.45 68 28
117 Rice 39.4% +0.40 68 31
118 High Point 39.4% +0.40 68 34
119 Harvard 39.4% +0.40 67 26
120 Winthrop 39.4% +0.40 67 29
121 Boise State 39.4% +0.39 67 31
122 Fairleigh Dickinson 39.3% +0.39 67 30
123 Vanderbilt 39.3% +0.38 66 32
124 Drake 39.2% +0.36 66 34
125 NJIT 39.2% +0.36 66 27
126 Penn State 39.2% +0.35 65 33
127 Duquesne 39.1% +0.35 65 36
128 Kent State 39.1% +0.35 65 32
129 North Texas 39.1% +0.34 65 32
130 Minnesota 39.1% +0.34 64 34
131 Florida Atlantic 39.1% +0.33 64 34
132 Northern Illinois 39.1% +0.33 64 29
133 Howard 39.0% +0.32 64 33
134 Western Michigan 38.9% +0.31 63 31
135 Weber State 38.9% +0.31 63 29
136 Baylor 38.9% +0.31 63 34
137 Memphis 38.9% +0.30 62 32
138 Texas Southern 38.8% +0.29 62 32
139 Milwaukee 38.8% +0.28 62 33
140 Iona 38.7% +0.27 62 33
141 Loyola Maryland 38.7% +0.27 61 31
142 Manhattan 38.7% +0.26 61 29
143 Hampton 38.6% +0.26 61 30
144 Campbell 38.6% +0.24 60 29
145 SE Louisiana 38.6% +0.24 60 29
146 Illinois 38.5% +0.24 60 38
147 Mississippi State 38.5% +0.23 60 35
148 Santa Clara 38.5% +0.23 59 32
149 Fresno State 38.5% +0.23 59 32
150 Oklahoma 38.5% +0.23 59 32
151 Columbia 38.5% +0.23 59 24
152 Alabama State 38.4% +0.20 58 29
153 Boston College 38.3% +0.20 58 36
154 Colorado State 38.2% +0.18 58 34
155 Charlotte 38.2% +0.17 57 30
156 Colgate 38.1% +0.15 57 34
157 UT Martin 38.1% +0.15 57 28
158 Butler 38.0% +0.14 57 32
159 Michigan 38.0% +0.13 56 32
160 Southern 38.0% +0.13 56 29
161 San Diego State 38.0% +0.13 56 35
162 Ball State 37.9% +0.12 56 29
163 North Carolina Central 37.9% +0.12 55 27
164 James Madison 37.9% +0.11 55 35
165 Seattle U 37.8% +0.10 55 36
166 Central Arkansas 37.8% +0.10 54 30
167 Bryant 37.8% +0.09 54 31
168 Saint Louis 37.8% +0.09 54 32
169 Wagner 37.7% +0.08 54 31
170 Texas A&M 37.7% +0.08 53 36
171 Holy Cross 37.7% +0.07 53 32
172 Arizona State 37.7% +0.07 53 32
173 Auburn 37.6% +0.07 52 35
174 Portland State 37.6% +0.06 52 29
175 Lehigh 37.6% +0.06 52 30
176 LSU 37.6% +0.06 52 33
177 Montana 37.6% +0.05 51 33
178 Illinois State 37.5% +0.05 51 31
179 Maryland 37.5% +0.05 51 33
180 George Mason 37.5% +0.05 51 31
181 Kentucky 37.5% +0.04 50 33
182 Duke 37.5% +0.03 50 36
183 Wake Forest 37.4% +0.02 50 35
184 UC Davis 37.4% +0.02 49 31
185 West Virginia 37.4% +0.02 49 32
186 Florida Gulf Coast 37.3% -0.00 49 29
187 UNC Asheville 37.3% -0.01 49 31
188 Bellarmine 37.3% -0.01 48 28
189 Wyoming 37.0% -0.05 48 30
190 UAlbany 37.0% -0.06 48 31
191 Detroit Mercy 36.9% -0.08 48 32
192 Stony Brook 36.9% -0.08 47 34
193 Missouri State 36.8% -0.09 47 33
194 SIU Edwardsville 36.8% -0.09 47 30
195 Northern Iowa 36.8% -0.09 46 32
196 Washington 36.8% -0.10 46 32
197 Houston 36.8% -0.10 46 37
198 Cincinnati 36.8% -0.10 46 37
199 Saint Mary's 36.7% -0.11 45 33
200 St. Bonaventure 36.7% -0.11 45 33
201 USC 36.7% -0.11 45 33
202 East Carolina 36.5% -0.16 44 32
203 Valparaiso 36.4% -0.17 44 31
204 Marist 36.4% -0.17 44 31
205 Northwestern 36.4% -0.17 44 34
206 Monmouth 36.3% -0.18 43 33
207 Pacific 36.3% -0.18 43 30
208 Oregon 36.3% -0.19 43 36
209 Southern Indiana 36.3% -0.20 43 29
210 Cal State Fullerton 36.2% -0.21 42 30
211 Louisiana 36.2% -0.22 42 31
212 South Alabama 36.1% -0.22 42 29
213 North Carolina 36.1% -0.22 41 37
214 Grand Canyon 36.1% -0.23 41 34
215 Northeastern 36.1% -0.23 41 32
216 Canisius 36.1% -0.23 41 31
217 Tennessee State 36.0% -0.25 40 29
218 Northern Colorado 35.9% -0.26 40 31
219 California Baptist 35.9% -0.26 40 31
220 North Dakota State 35.9% -0.26 40 29
221 Charleston Southern 35.9% -0.26 39 27
222 UCF 35.9% -0.27 39 33
223 North Carolina A&T 35.7% -0.30 39 32
224 Delaware 35.7% -0.30 38 32
225 Tulane 35.6% -0.32 38 30
226 SMU 35.5% -0.33 38 32
227 Wisconsin 35.5% -0.34 38 36
228 Western Carolina 35.5% -0.34 37 29
229 Yale 35.4% -0.35 37 31
230 Gardner-Webb 35.4% -0.36 37 30
231 Central Connecticut 35.4% -0.36 36 29
232 Richmond 35.4% -0.37 36 33
233 Georgia State 35.3% -0.38 36 29
234 Murray State 35.3% -0.38 36 31
235 Lamar 35.3% -0.39 35 31
236 Northern Arizona 35.2% -0.40 35 33
237 Ole Miss 35.2% -0.40 35 32
238 Central Michigan 35.2% -0.40 35 31
239 Saint Francis 35.1% -0.41 34 28
240 Massachusetts 35.1% -0.42 34 31
241 Old Dominion 35.1% -0.42 34 31
242 Austin Peay 35.1% -0.42 33 32
243 UMBC 35.0% -0.43 33 31
244 Idaho State 35.0% -0.43 33 32
245 Southern Utah 35.0% -0.44 33 29
246 Sam Houston 35.0% -0.44 32 31
247 Evansville 34.9% -0.45 32 34
248 Maryland Eastern Shore 34.8% -0.47 32 25
249 DePaul 34.8% -0.47 31 32
250 Bowling Green 34.8% -0.47 31 32
251 Utah Tech 34.8% -0.48 31 30
252 Texas 34.8% -0.48 31 34
253 Purdue 34.7% -0.50 30 39
254 Louisiana Tech 34.6% -0.51 30 29
255 Ohio State 34.6% -0.51 30 36
256 UNLV 34.6% -0.51 30 32
257 North Alabama 34.6% -0.52 29 30
258 New Mexico State 34.6% -0.52 29 28
259 Florida 34.5% -0.52 29 36
260 South Dakota 34.5% -0.53 28 29
261 Chicago State 34.5% -0.53 28 29
262 Northwestern State 34.4% -0.55 28 30
263 Siena 34.3% -0.57 28 32
264 Coppin State 34.2% -0.58 27 28
265 Radford 34.2% -0.59 27 31
266 Quinnipiac 34.2% -0.60 27 33
267 Sacred Heart 34.2% -0.60 27 30
268 Tennessee Tech 34.1% -0.60 26 28
269 Towson 34.1% -0.61 26 33
270 San Diego 34.1% -0.61 26 31
271 Oregon State 34.0% -0.62 25 31
272 Cal Poly 33.9% -0.64 25 31
273 Syracuse 33.8% -0.66 25 31
274 Jackson State 33.8% -0.66 25 32
275 Nevada 33.7% -0.67 24 33
276 Southern Miss 33.7% -0.68 24 30
277 Utah State 33.6% -0.69 24 33
278 Eastern Kentucky 33.6% -0.71 23 28
279 McNeese 33.5% -0.71 23 30
280 Northern Kentucky 33.5% -0.71 23 31
281 Southeast Missouri State 33.5% -0.73 23 27
282 Arizona 33.4% -0.73 22 36
283 Rhode Island 33.4% -0.74 22 31
284 VMI 33.4% -0.75 22 29
285 NC State 33.3% -0.76 22 41
286 The Citadel 33.3% -0.76 21 29
287 Mount St. Mary's 33.2% -0.78 21 32
288 Drexel 33.2% -0.78 21 31
289 Jacksonville 33.1% -0.79 20 30
290 Navy 33.1% -0.80 20 30
291 Omaha 33.0% -0.81 20 29
292 Presbyterian 33.0% -0.82 20 30
293 Arkansas 32.9% -0.83 19 33
294 Coastal Carolina 32.9% -0.84 19 29
295 Virginia 32.6% -0.89 19 34
296 St. John's 32.5% -0.90 19 33
297 Norfolk State 32.5% -0.91 18 31
298 Eastern Michigan 32.3% -0.95 18 29
299 Maine 32.2% -0.96 18 31
300 Washington State 32.2% -0.97 17 35
301 Stephen F. Austin 32.1% -0.98 17 31
302 Pepperdine 32.1% -0.98 17 30
303 Xavier 32.0% -1.00 17 34
304 South Carolina State 31.9% -1.03 16 30
305 Niagara 31.8% -1.05 16 31
306 Iowa State 31.7% -1.05 16 37
307 Rutgers 31.7% -1.07 15 32
308 Florida State 31.6% -1.08 15 33
309 UAB 31.6% -1.09 15 34
310 Wichita State 31.5% -1.09 15 33
311 Saint Peter's 31.5% -1.11 14 32
312 App State 31.5% -1.11 14 32
313 Gonzaga 31.3% -1.13 14 34
314 UTEP 31.3% -1.13 14 31
315 Cleveland State 31.2% -1.16 13 35
316 Seton Hall 31.2% -1.16 13 37
317 Louisville 31.2% -1.17 13 32
318 Western Kentucky 31.1% -1.18 12 31
319 Little Rock 31.1% -1.18 12 34
320 Western Illinois 30.9% -1.20 12 29
321 Lindenwood 30.7% -1.25 12 28
322 Binghamton 30.7% -1.26 11 28
323 Colorado 30.6% -1.27 11 37
324 Michigan State 30.4% -1.31 11 35
325 Tarleton State 30.4% -1.31 10 32
326 UC Santa Barbara 30.4% -1.31 10 29
327 Mississippi Valley State 30.4% -1.32 10 31
328 TCU 30.3% -1.34 10 34
329 UCLA 30.1% -1.36 9 32
330 New Mexico 30.1% -1.36 9 34
331 Mercer 30.1% -1.37 9 30
332 Long Island University 29.9% -1.40 9 29
333 Iowa 29.9% -1.40 8 34
334 Florida A&M 29.9% -1.41 8 27
335 Kansas 29.8% -1.43 8 33
336 Bethune-Cookman 29.7% -1.44 7 32
337 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 29.7% -1.44 7 29
338 Eastern Illinois 29.4% -1.49 7 27
339 Wright State 29.3% -1.53 7 30
340 New Orleans 29.2% -1.53 6 29
341 UT Rio Grande Valley 29.2% -1.54 6 29
342 UMass Lowell 29.2% -1.54 6 29
343 Grambling 29.0% -1.57 6 33
344 Utah Valley 28.9% -1.59 5 30
345 UL Monroe 28.7% -1.63 5 28
346 Toledo 28.6% -1.66 5 32
347 Longwood 28.4% -1.69 4 32
348 Jacksonville State 28.3% -1.71 4 29
349 Rider 28.1% -1.74 4 31
350 Long Beach State 28.1% -1.74 4 34
351 Houston Christian 28.0% -1.76 3 27
352 Indiana 27.8% -1.81 3 33
353 UC Irvine 27.7% -1.82 3 33
354 Morgan State 26.9% -1.97 2 28
355 Alabama A&M 26.9% -1.97 2 35
356 Alcorn State 26.6% -2.02 2 31
357 Abilene Christian 26.4% -2.06 2 33
358 Cal State Northridge 26.4% -2.07 1 32
359 Prairie View A&M 26.4% -2.07 1 29
360 Cal State Bakersfield 25.7% -2.19 1 30
361 Delaware State 25.1% -2.31 1 32
362 IU Indianapolis 24.3% -2.46 0 29
363 Texas State 24.2% -2.49 0 33