The tide is high, but I'm holding on. "The Tide is High" - Blondie
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Effective Field Goal Percentage

Field-goal shooting that credits a 3-pointer as 1.5 made shots.

(FGM + 0.5×3PM) ÷ FGA. A made three is worth 1.5 times a made two, so it counts as 1.5 makes; plain FG% undervalues teams that shoot a lot of threes.

Higher is better  ·  league avg 50.3%  ·  as of 2024-04-09

Game Outcomes

Each point is a completed game — x: home team's season-to-date value entering the game, y: away team's. home win home loss

Predicts home win: AUC 0.65 (team entering with the better value wins 61% of games)

Based on 5508 of 5727 completed games where both teams entered with a season-to-date value.

Team Distribution

Season-to-date value for every team, with a density curve.

min 37.0% max 59.8% mean 50.3% std 3.1% (n=363)

Team Rankings

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# Team Effective Field Goal Percentage z Pctl GP
1 Indiana State 59.8% +3.08 100 38
2 Wright State 58.5% +2.63 100 30
3 Creighton 57.3% +2.25 99 35
4 Eastern Washington 57.2% +2.22 99 30
5 Kentucky 57.2% +2.21 99 33
6 Gonzaga 57.0% +2.17 99 34
7 UConn 56.9% +2.13 98 40
8 Samford 56.8% +2.08 98 33
9 Cornell 56.6% +2.02 98 28
10 Alabama 56.3% +1.93 98 37
11 Dayton 56.3% +1.93 97 33
12 Lipscomb 56.2% +1.92 97 30
13 Purdue 55.8% +1.78 97 39
14 Baylor 55.7% +1.74 96 34
15 Colorado 55.4% +1.66 96 37
16 Hofstra 55.4% +1.63 96 32
17 South Dakota State 55.2% +1.58 96 32
18 Bradley 55.1% +1.56 95 34
19 Northern Colorado 55.1% +1.54 95 31
20 San Francisco 55.1% +1.53 95 33
21 Marquette 55.0% +1.52 94 37
22 Belmont 55.0% +1.52 94 32
23 BYU 54.8% +1.45 94 34
24 Chattanooga 54.8% +1.45 94 31
25 Drake 54.7% +1.41 93 34
26 Florida Atlantic 54.7% +1.41 93 34
27 Montana 54.7% +1.40 93 33
28 Princeton 54.6% +1.39 93 27
29 Duke 54.6% +1.38 92 36
30 Arizona 54.5% +1.37 92 36
31 St. Thomas-Minnesota 54.4% +1.31 92 30
32 Stanford 54.3% +1.30 91 32
33 Utah 54.3% +1.30 91 37
34 Auburn 54.3% +1.29 91 35
35 Liberty 54.3% +1.27 91 29
36 Wake Forest 54.2% +1.26 90 35
37 McNeese 54.2% +1.25 90 30
38 Montana State 54.2% +1.24 90 32
39 Colorado State 54.2% +1.24 90 34
40 Morehead State 54.1% +1.23 89 31
41 Minnesota 54.1% +1.22 89 34
42 Tulane 54.1% +1.21 89 30
43 Utah State 54.0% +1.19 88 33
44 James Madison 53.9% +1.16 88 35
45 Clemson 53.9% +1.14 88 36
46 Air Force 53.8% +1.14 88 31
47 Virginia Tech 53.8% +1.11 87 34
48 North Florida 53.6% +1.07 87 29
49 Illinois 53.6% +1.06 87 38
50 Washington 53.5% +1.04 86 32
51 Purdue Fort Wayne 53.5% +1.02 86 34
52 Kansas 53.5% +1.01 86 33
53 Colgate 53.3% +0.97 86 34
54 UC Santa Barbara 53.3% +0.97 85 29
55 Wofford 53.3% +0.96 85 29
56 North Dakota State 53.3% +0.96 85 29
57 UNC Greensboro 53.2% +0.94 85 30
58 Nevada 53.2% +0.93 84 33
59 Mount St. Mary's 53.2% +0.92 84 32
60 Toledo 53.1% +0.91 84 32
61 Nebraska 53.1% +0.91 83 34
62 Oklahoma 53.1% +0.90 83 32
63 Texas 53.0% +0.88 83 34
64 Weber State 53.0% +0.85 83 29
65 Saint Joseph's 53.0% +0.85 82 35
66 Stetson 52.8% +0.81 82 32
67 Iowa 52.8% +0.81 82 34
68 Memphis 52.8% +0.79 81 32
69 Saint Mary's 52.8% +0.79 81 33
70 UMBC 52.7% +0.77 81 31
71 Richmond 52.7% +0.76 81 33
72 Miami 52.7% +0.75 80 32
73 App State 52.7% +0.75 80 32
74 Little Rock 52.6% +0.75 80 34
75 Hawai'i 52.6% +0.74 80 32
76 Northwestern 52.6% +0.74 79 34
77 Texas Tech 52.6% +0.73 79 34
78 Boston College 52.5% +0.71 79 36
79 Southern Illinois 52.5% +0.70 78 31
80 Columbia 52.5% +0.69 78 24
81 American University 52.5% +0.69 78 31
82 Green Bay 52.4% +0.66 78 30
83 UC San Diego 52.3% +0.63 77 31
84 Santa Clara 52.3% +0.63 77 32
85 St. Bonaventure 52.3% +0.63 77 33
86 High Point 52.3% +0.62 77 34
87 Wisconsin 52.2% +0.62 76 36
88 Charleston 52.2% +0.62 76 34
89 LSU 52.2% +0.62 76 33
90 Ohio 52.2% +0.61 75 32
91 Florida Gulf Coast 52.1% +0.59 75 29
92 Yale 52.1% +0.57 75 31
93 Furman 52.1% +0.57 75 30
94 UT Arlington 52.1% +0.56 74 32
95 UNC Asheville 52.1% +0.56 74 31
96 Indiana 52.1% +0.56 74 33
97 Niagara 52.0% +0.55 73 31
98 George Mason 52.0% +0.54 73 31
99 Fairfield 52.0% +0.54 73 36
100 Iowa State 52.0% +0.54 73 37
101 Campbell 52.0% +0.53 72 29
102 Pennsylvania 51.9% +0.53 72 27
103 South Dakota 51.9% +0.52 72 29
104 Oakland 51.9% +0.52 72 36
105 Oregon 51.9% +0.51 71 36
106 Delaware 51.9% +0.51 71 32
107 Butler 51.9% +0.51 71 32
108 Winthrop 51.9% +0.50 70 29
109 VCU 51.8% +0.48 70 38
110 South Florida 51.8% +0.48 70 33
111 Denver 51.8% +0.48 70 30
112 UC Irvine 51.8% +0.47 69 33
113 Washington State 51.8% +0.47 69 35
114 Florida 51.8% +0.47 69 36
115 Howard 51.7% +0.46 69 33
116 Western Kentucky 51.7% +0.45 68 31
117 Western Carolina 51.7% +0.44 68 29
118 UNLV 51.7% +0.44 68 32
119 USC 51.7% +0.43 67 33
120 Michigan State 51.6% +0.42 67 35
121 Northern Iowa 51.6% +0.42 67 32
122 Akron 51.6% +0.41 67 33
123 Pittsburgh 51.6% +0.41 66 33
124 Vermont 51.6% +0.41 66 33
125 Loyola Marymount 51.6% +0.40 66 30
126 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 51.5% +0.39 65 27
127 Rhode Island 51.5% +0.39 65 31
128 Fresno State 51.5% +0.39 65 32
129 Providence 51.5% +0.39 65 35
130 Arkansas State 51.5% +0.38 64 37
131 TCU 51.5% +0.38 64 34
132 North Carolina 51.5% +0.38 64 37
133 Loyola Chicago 51.5% +0.38 64 32
134 Kennesaw State 51.5% +0.38 63 28
135 George Washington 51.5% +0.38 63 31
136 Saint Louis 51.5% +0.38 63 32
137 Nicholls 51.4% +0.36 62 31
138 San José State 51.4% +0.36 62 31
139 Mississippi State 51.4% +0.36 62 35
140 Sacred Heart 51.4% +0.36 62 30
141 Grand Canyon 51.4% +0.35 61 34
142 Syracuse 51.3% +0.32 61 31
143 Oklahoma State 51.3% +0.32 61 32
144 Northeastern 51.2% +0.29 60 32
145 Presbyterian 51.2% +0.29 60 30
146 Michigan 51.2% +0.28 60 32
147 Ole Miss 51.1% +0.27 60 32
148 Tennessee 51.1% +0.26 59 36
149 UNC Wilmington 51.1% +0.24 59 28
150 Idaho State 51.1% +0.24 59 32
151 Oral Roberts 51.1% +0.24 59 28
152 Boise State 51.0% +0.23 58 31
153 Milwaukee 51.0% +0.23 58 33
154 Ohio State 51.0% +0.21 58 36
155 SMU 51.0% +0.21 57 32
156 Wyoming 50.9% +0.19 57 30
157 Miami (OH) 50.9% +0.19 57 30
158 St. John's 50.9% +0.18 57 33
159 South Alabama 50.9% +0.18 56 29
160 Lamar 50.9% +0.18 56 31
161 South Carolina 50.9% +0.17 56 34
162 Pepperdine 50.9% +0.17 56 30
163 Georgia Southern 50.8% +0.16 55 33
164 Radford 50.8% +0.16 55 31
165 Marist 50.8% +0.15 55 31
166 Charlotte 50.8% +0.15 54 30
167 North Texas 50.8% +0.14 54 32
168 Ball State 50.8% +0.14 54 29
169 Seattle U 50.7% +0.14 54 36
170 NC State 50.7% +0.13 53 41
171 Bryant 50.7% +0.13 53 31
172 Louisiana 50.7% +0.13 53 31
173 Kent State 50.7% +0.12 52 32
174 UIC 50.6% +0.10 52 32
175 The Citadel 50.6% +0.10 52 29
176 Louisiana Tech 50.6% +0.10 52 29
177 Eastern Kentucky 50.6% +0.09 51 28
178 Northern Kentucky 50.6% +0.08 51 31
179 Villanova 50.6% +0.08 51 34
180 Elon 50.6% +0.08 51 30
181 Massachusetts 50.6% +0.07 50 31
182 Drexel 50.6% +0.07 50 31
183 UT Martin 50.5% +0.06 50 28
184 Arkansas 50.5% +0.06 49 33
185 Rice 50.5% +0.06 49 31
186 Portland 50.5% +0.05 49 31
187 UMass Lowell 50.4% +0.04 49 29
188 Seton Hall 50.4% +0.04 48 37
189 Bucknell 50.4% +0.03 48 33
190 Youngstown State 50.4% +0.02 48 28
191 Austin Peay 50.4% +0.01 48 32
192 Cincinnati 50.3% +0.01 47 37
193 Stony Brook 50.3% +0.01 47 34
194 Houston 50.3% +0.00 47 37
195 Utah Tech 50.3% +0.00 46 30
196 UAlbany 50.3% +0.00 46 31
197 Quinnipiac 50.3% -0.00 46 33
198 Penn State 50.3% -0.01 46 33
199 Florida State 50.3% -0.02 45 33
200 Missouri 50.2% -0.03 45 32
201 Central Connecticut 50.2% -0.03 45 29
202 Idaho 50.2% -0.03 44 30
203 Tulsa 50.2% -0.03 44 30
204 North Dakota 50.2% -0.03 44 29
205 Robert Morris 50.2% -0.03 44 30
206 UC Davis 50.2% -0.04 43 31
207 New Mexico 50.2% -0.05 43 34
208 Harvard 50.2% -0.05 43 26
209 Kansas State 50.2% -0.05 43 34
210 Le Moyne 50.1% -0.07 42 29
211 Holy Cross 50.1% -0.07 42 32
212 Troy 50.1% -0.08 42 29
213 Mercer 50.1% -0.08 41 30
214 Evansville 50.1% -0.09 41 34
215 Iona 50.0% -0.10 41 33
216 Duquesne 50.0% -0.11 41 36
217 UAB 50.0% -0.11 40 34
218 Tarleton State 50.0% -0.11 40 32
219 Murray State 50.0% -0.11 40 31
220 San Diego State 49.9% -0.14 40 35
221 North Alabama 49.8% -0.17 39 30
222 North Carolina Central 49.8% -0.17 39 27
223 Georgia 49.8% -0.17 39 37
224 Queens University 49.8% -0.17 38 31
225 Oregon State 49.8% -0.17 38 31
226 Merrimack 49.8% -0.17 38 31
227 Northern Illinois 49.8% -0.18 38 29
228 Wichita State 49.8% -0.19 37 33
229 Brown 49.7% -0.19 37 30
230 Missouri State 49.7% -0.21 37 33
231 Florida International 49.6% -0.22 36 32
232 Canisius 49.6% -0.24 36 31
233 Norfolk State 49.6% -0.24 36 31
234 West Virginia 49.5% -0.26 36 32
235 Omaha 49.5% -0.26 35 29
236 Lehigh 49.5% -0.27 35 30
237 Southern 49.4% -0.29 35 29
238 Cleveland State 49.4% -0.29 35 35
239 Stephen F. Austin 49.4% -0.30 34 31
240 Kansas City 49.4% -0.31 34 29
241 Binghamton 49.4% -0.31 34 28
242 Coastal Carolina 49.4% -0.31 33 29
243 South Carolina Upstate 49.4% -0.31 33 27
244 Monmouth 49.3% -0.32 33 33
245 Northern Arizona 49.3% -0.33 33 33
246 La Salle 49.2% -0.36 32 32
247 California 49.2% -0.38 32 32
248 Longwood 49.1% -0.38 32 32
249 Xavier 49.1% -0.40 31 34
250 Gardner-Webb 49.0% -0.41 31 30
251 Bellarmine 49.0% -0.42 31 28
252 San Diego 49.0% -0.42 31 31
253 Tennessee Tech 49.0% -0.44 30 28
254 Cal State Northridge 48.9% -0.46 30 32
255 Davidson 48.9% -0.46 30 30
256 Alcorn State 48.9% -0.47 30 31
257 Tennessee State 48.8% -0.51 29 29
258 Georgia Tech 48.7% -0.53 29 32
259 Sacramento State 48.7% -0.53 29 32
260 Jacksonville 48.7% -0.53 28 30
261 Western Michigan 48.7% -0.54 28 31
262 Virginia 48.6% -0.54 28 34
263 Sam Houston 48.6% -0.54 28 31
264 Georgetown 48.6% -0.56 27 32
265 Georgia State 48.5% -0.60 27 29
266 Long Beach State 48.4% -0.61 27 34
267 Southern Utah 48.4% -0.62 27 29
268 SE Louisiana 48.4% -0.63 26 29
269 Louisville 48.4% -0.64 26 32
270 William & Mary 48.3% -0.64 26 31
271 Southern Miss 48.3% -0.65 25 30
272 UTSA 48.3% -0.66 25 31
273 Jacksonville State 48.2% -0.69 25 29
274 Incarnate Word 48.2% -0.70 25 29
275 DePaul 48.1% -0.71 24 32
276 Grambling 48.1% -0.72 24 33
277 UTEP 48.1% -0.72 24 31
278 Bowling Green 48.1% -0.73 23 32
279 Cal State Fullerton 48.0% -0.77 23 30
280 New Hampshire 47.9% -0.79 23 30
281 Eastern Michigan 47.9% -0.80 23 29
282 UCF 47.8% -0.82 22 33
283 Boston University 47.8% -0.83 22 32
284 Maine 47.7% -0.84 22 31
285 Rider 47.7% -0.85 22 31
286 Northwestern State 47.7% -0.86 21 30
287 Illinois State 47.7% -0.86 21 31
288 East Carolina 47.6% -0.88 21 32
289 Dartmouth 47.6% -0.89 20 25
290 Notre Dame 47.6% -0.90 20 33
291 Old Dominion 47.6% -0.90 20 31
292 Florida A&M 47.5% -0.91 20 27
293 Central Arkansas 47.5% -0.91 19 30
294 Morgan State 47.4% -0.96 19 28
295 Towson 47.3% -0.97 19 33
296 Bethune-Cookman 47.3% -0.97 19 32
297 Detroit Mercy 47.3% -0.97 18 32
298 Buffalo 47.3% -0.98 18 30
299 Arizona State 47.3% -0.99 18 32
300 Loyola Maryland 47.2% -1.00 17 31
301 Manhattan 47.2% -1.01 17 29
302 Saint Francis 47.2% -1.01 17 28
303 Abilene Christian 47.1% -1.03 17 33
304 SIU Edwardsville 47.1% -1.04 16 30
305 Utah Valley 47.1% -1.04 16 30
306 Texas State 47.1% -1.05 16 33
307 Army 47.1% -1.06 15 30
308 Fairleigh Dickinson 47.0% -1.06 15 30
309 Jackson State 47.0% -1.07 15 32
310 Stonehill 47.0% -1.07 15 31
311 Cal State Bakersfield 47.0% -1.07 14 30
312 New Mexico State 46.9% -1.10 14 28
313 East Tennessee State 46.9% -1.10 14 33
314 California Baptist 46.9% -1.10 14 31
315 Texas Southern 46.9% -1.10 13 32
316 Lafayette 46.9% -1.11 13 31
317 Houston Christian 46.9% -1.12 13 27
318 Marshall 46.8% -1.13 12 32
319 Central Michigan 46.8% -1.14 12 31
320 Portland State 46.8% -1.15 12 29
321 Maryland 46.7% -1.16 12 33
322 Hampton 46.7% -1.18 11 30
323 Fordham 46.7% -1.18 11 33
324 UCLA 46.6% -1.19 11 32
325 IU Indianapolis 46.5% -1.24 10 29
326 Western Illinois 46.4% -1.26 10 29
327 Pacific 46.4% -1.27 10 30
328 Long Island University 46.4% -1.27 10 29
329 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 46.3% -1.30 9 29
330 UC Riverside 46.3% -1.32 9 32
331 Valparaiso 46.2% -1.35 9 31
332 Chicago State 46.1% -1.36 9 29
333 Delaware State 46.1% -1.37 8 32
334 VMI 46.0% -1.39 8 29
335 Middle Tennessee 46.0% -1.40 8 31
336 Temple 46.0% -1.40 7 35
337 East Texas A&M 46.0% -1.40 7 30
338 Alabama A&M 45.9% -1.44 7 35
339 Cal Poly 45.8% -1.45 7 31
340 South Carolina State 45.7% -1.49 6 30
341 Texas A&M 45.7% -1.49 6 36
342 Southern Indiana 45.6% -1.55 6 29
343 Prairie View A&M 45.6% -1.55 6 29
344 New Orleans 45.5% -1.58 5 29
345 Vanderbilt 45.4% -1.59 5 32
346 Charleston Southern 45.2% -1.68 5 27
347 UT Rio Grande Valley 45.1% -1.68 4 29
348 Wagner 45.1% -1.69 4 31
349 Southeast Missouri State 45.1% -1.69 4 27
350 UL Monroe 44.8% -1.79 4 28
351 Siena 44.7% -1.81 3 32
352 Eastern Illinois 44.7% -1.84 3 27
353 Saint Peter's 44.6% -1.84 3 32
354 NJIT 44.6% -1.87 2 27
355 Navy 44.0% -2.05 2 30
356 North Carolina A&T 43.9% -2.08 2 32
357 Rutgers 43.5% -2.22 2 32
358 Lindenwood 43.3% -2.27 1 28
359 Maryland Eastern Shore 43.0% -2.37 1 25
360 Mississippi Valley State 42.5% -2.54 1 31
361 Coppin State 42.3% -2.60 1 28
362 Alabama State 41.0% -3.02 0 29
363 Hartford 37.0% -4.30 0 1