We live on blood / We are Sparta F.C "Theme from Sparta FC" - The Fall

Game Outcomes

Each point is a completed game — x: home team's season-to-date value entering the game, y: away team's. home win home loss

Predicts home win: AUC 0.68 (team entering with the better value wins 64% of games)

Based on 5508 of 5727 completed games where both teams entered with a season-to-date value.

Team Distribution

Season-to-date value for every team, with a density curve.

min 88.9 max 119.7 mean 105.3 std 5.0 (n=363)

Team Rankings

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# Team Defensive Efficiency z Pctl GP
1 Houston 88.9 -3.32 100 37
2 Iowa State 91.0 -2.90 100 37
3 Saint Mary's 93.6 -2.36 99 33
4 Merrimack 94.2 -2.23 99 31
5 Marist 94.7 -2.15 99 31
6 Tennessee 95.8 -1.92 99 36
7 Virginia 96.0 -1.89 98 34
8 UConn 96.0 -1.88 98 40
9 Grand Canyon 96.0 -1.88 98 34
10 Seattle U 96.4 -1.80 98 36
11 Arizona 96.5 -1.78 97 36
12 Auburn 96.6 -1.76 97 35
13 Rutgers 96.6 -1.76 97 32
14 McNeese 96.8 -1.72 96 30
15 James Madison 97.0 -1.67 96 35
16 Louisiana Tech 97.2 -1.63 96 29
17 Loyola Chicago 97.3 -1.62 96 32
18 San Francisco 97.4 -1.61 95 33
19 App State 97.5 -1.57 95 32
20 UCF 97.5 -1.57 95 33
21 Saint Peter's 97.6 -1.55 94 32
22 UTEP 97.6 -1.55 94 31
23 Vermont 97.6 -1.55 94 33
24 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 97.8 -1.51 94 29
25 Colgate 97.9 -1.50 93 34
26 Richmond 98.0 -1.48 93 33
27 UC Irvine 98.2 -1.43 93 33
28 Cincinnati 98.4 -1.39 93 37
29 New Mexico 98.5 -1.38 92 34
30 North Carolina 98.5 -1.38 92 37
31 Maryland 98.7 -1.34 92 33
32 Bryant 98.7 -1.33 91 31
33 Western Kentucky 98.8 -1.31 91 31
34 San Diego State 99.0 -1.28 91 35
35 Utah Valley 99.0 -1.27 91 30
36 Duke 99.1 -1.26 90 36
37 UMass Lowell 99.2 -1.23 90 29
38 Stephen F. Austin 99.3 -1.22 90 31
39 Providence 99.4 -1.18 90 35
40 Michigan State 99.5 -1.18 89 35
41 Bradley 99.6 -1.15 89 34
42 VCU 99.7 -1.14 89 38
43 Maine 99.7 -1.14 88 31
44 Villanova 99.7 -1.14 88 34
45 BYU 99.8 -1.11 88 34
46 Washington State 99.8 -1.10 88 35
47 Oklahoma 99.9 -1.10 87 32
48 Gonzaga 99.9 -1.09 87 34
49 Quinnipiac 100.0 -1.08 87 33
50 Purdue 100.0 -1.08 86 39
51 Mississippi State 100.0 -1.08 86 35
52 Marquette 100.2 -1.04 86 37
53 Kansas 100.2 -1.03 86 33
54 SMU 100.3 -1.02 85 32
55 South Florida 100.3 -1.02 85 33
56 Nevada 100.3 -1.02 85 33
57 Central Connecticut 100.4 -1.00 85 29
58 Akron 100.4 -0.99 84 33
59 TCU 100.4 -0.98 84 34
60 Southern 100.4 -0.98 84 29
61 Drake 100.5 -0.97 83 34
62 Texas 100.5 -0.96 83 34
63 Morehead State 100.5 -0.96 83 31
64 Purdue Fort Wayne 100.6 -0.95 83 34
65 UC Davis 100.6 -0.95 82 31
66 Sam Houston 100.7 -0.94 82 31
67 Western Illinois 100.7 -0.93 82 29
68 Towson 100.7 -0.92 81 33
69 Nebraska 100.7 -0.92 81 34
70 Boise State 100.8 -0.91 81 31
71 Duquesne 100.8 -0.91 81 36
72 Norfolk State 101.0 -0.88 80 31
73 Pittsburgh 101.0 -0.87 80 33
74 Creighton 101.0 -0.87 80 35
75 Boston University 101.1 -0.86 80 32
76 Wagner 101.1 -0.85 79 31
77 Delaware State 101.1 -0.85 79 32
78 Samford 101.3 -0.81 79 33
79 Troy 101.3 -0.81 78 29
80 Cal State Northridge 101.4 -0.80 78 32
81 Western Carolina 101.4 -0.80 78 29
82 Hawai'i 101.5 -0.77 78 32
83 Kansas State 101.5 -0.77 77 34
84 Alabama State 101.6 -0.76 77 29
85 North Texas 101.6 -0.75 77 32
86 Jacksonville State 101.6 -0.75 77 29
87 Notre Dame 101.7 -0.74 76 33
88 Colorado State 101.7 -0.72 76 34
89 George Mason 101.7 -0.72 76 31
90 Dayton 101.8 -0.71 75 33
91 Lehigh 101.8 -0.70 75 30
92 Longwood 101.8 -0.70 75 32
93 Drexel 101.8 -0.70 75 31
94 Massachusetts 102.0 -0.68 74 31
95 Saint Joseph's 102.0 -0.66 74 35
96 Davidson 102.0 -0.66 74 30
97 Mount St. Mary's 102.1 -0.66 73 32
98 Wake Forest 102.1 -0.64 73 35
99 California Baptist 102.1 -0.64 73 31
100 Fordham 102.2 -0.63 73 33
101 St. Bonaventure 102.2 -0.62 72 33
102 Missouri State 102.3 -0.61 72 33
103 Seton Hall 102.3 -0.60 72 37
104 Lafayette 102.4 -0.60 72 31
105 Indiana State 102.4 -0.60 71 38
106 Navy 102.5 -0.56 71 30
107 Youngstown State 102.6 -0.56 71 28
108 UCLA 102.6 -0.55 70 32
109 Utah 102.6 -0.55 70 37
110 Colorado 102.6 -0.54 70 37
111 Bethune-Cookman 102.7 -0.53 70 32
112 Texas Southern 102.7 -0.52 69 32
113 Little Rock 102.8 -0.51 69 34
114 Ohio 102.8 -0.50 69 32
115 Army 102.8 -0.50 69 30
116 Louisiana 103.0 -0.47 68 31
117 Delaware 103.0 -0.46 68 32
118 Central Michigan 103.1 -0.45 68 31
119 Santa Clara 103.1 -0.45 67 32
120 UIC 103.1 -0.45 67 32
121 Liberty 103.1 -0.44 67 29
122 Tarleton State 103.2 -0.42 67 32
123 New Hampshire 103.2 -0.42 66 30
124 Ohio State 103.3 -0.41 66 36
125 St. Thomas-Minnesota 103.3 -0.41 66 30
126 Utah State 103.3 -0.40 65 33
127 Texas State 103.3 -0.40 65 33
128 Yale 103.4 -0.40 65 31
129 NC State 103.4 -0.39 65 41
130 Penn State 103.4 -0.39 64 33
131 UT Arlington 103.4 -0.38 64 32
132 Abilene Christian 103.4 -0.38 64 33
133 Southern Illinois 103.4 -0.38 64 31
134 Texas Tech 103.5 -0.37 63 34
135 Bowling Green 103.5 -0.36 63 32
136 Lamar 103.5 -0.36 63 31
137 Hofstra 103.6 -0.35 62 32
138 Tulsa 103.6 -0.35 62 30
139 St. John's 103.6 -0.34 62 33
140 Miami (OH) 103.6 -0.34 62 30
141 South Carolina 103.6 -0.34 61 34
142 Bucknell 103.7 -0.32 61 33
143 East Tennessee State 103.8 -0.31 61 33
144 Fairfield 103.8 -0.31 60 36
145 Iona 103.9 -0.29 60 33
146 Grambling 103.9 -0.29 60 33
147 Princeton 103.9 -0.28 60 27
148 Le Moyne 104.0 -0.26 59 29
149 Charlotte 104.1 -0.25 59 30
150 Cal State Fullerton 104.1 -0.25 59 30
151 Sacred Heart 104.1 -0.25 59 30
152 Butler 104.1 -0.24 58 32
153 UC San Diego 104.1 -0.24 58 31
154 Illinois 104.2 -0.23 58 38
155 Virginia Tech 104.2 -0.23 57 34
156 Florida Atlantic 104.3 -0.20 57 34
157 Xavier 104.3 -0.20 57 34
158 Tennessee State 104.4 -0.19 57 29
159 Arizona State 104.4 -0.18 56 32
160 Illinois State 104.4 -0.18 56 31
161 Northern Kentucky 104.4 -0.18 56 31
162 Baylor 104.5 -0.17 56 34
163 Memphis 104.5 -0.16 55 32
164 Clemson 104.5 -0.16 55 36
165 Oregon 104.6 -0.14 55 36
166 Northwestern 104.7 -0.13 54 34
167 Rider 104.7 -0.13 54 31
168 Wichita State 104.7 -0.12 54 33
169 Kent State 104.7 -0.12 54 32
170 Portland State 104.8 -0.11 53 29
171 South Dakota State 104.8 -0.11 53 32
172 USC 104.8 -0.10 53 33
173 Wisconsin 104.8 -0.10 52 36
174 Charleston 104.9 -0.09 52 34
175 Kansas City 104.9 -0.09 52 29
176 Gardner-Webb 104.9 -0.08 52 30
177 North Carolina Central 105.0 -0.07 51 27
178 Brown 105.0 -0.06 51 30
179 Weber State 105.1 -0.05 51 29
180 Texas A&M 105.1 -0.05 51 36
181 Canisius 105.1 -0.05 50 31
182 Miami 105.1 -0.04 50 32
183 Cornell 105.1 -0.04 50 28
184 Long Beach State 105.1 -0.04 49 34
185 Eastern Illinois 105.2 -0.03 49 27
186 Southern Miss 105.3 -0.00 49 30
187 Boston College 105.3 -0.00 49 36
188 UNC Greensboro 105.3 +0.00 48 30
189 Washington 105.3 +0.00 48 32
190 Belmont 105.3 +0.01 48 32
191 South Carolina State 105.4 +0.02 48 30
192 UNLV 105.4 +0.02 47 32
193 Alabama A&M 105.4 +0.02 47 35
194 Niagara 105.4 +0.02 47 31
195 Northern Iowa 105.5 +0.03 46 32
196 UT Martin 105.5 +0.03 46 28
197 LSU 105.6 +0.05 46 33
198 Middle Tennessee 105.7 +0.07 46 31
199 Winthrop 105.7 +0.07 45 29
200 SIU Edwardsville 105.7 +0.08 45 30
201 Minnesota 105.7 +0.09 45 34
202 Florida State 105.7 +0.09 44 33
203 Georgia 105.8 +0.10 44 37
204 Oakland 105.8 +0.10 44 36
205 Syracuse 105.9 +0.11 44 31
206 Oklahoma State 106.0 +0.13 43 32
207 Evansville 106.0 +0.14 43 34
208 Cal State Bakersfield 106.0 +0.14 43 30
209 Chattanooga 106.0 +0.14 43 31
210 Ball State 106.0 +0.14 42 29
211 Harvard 106.1 +0.15 42 26
212 Montana State 106.1 +0.16 42 32
213 Temple 106.2 +0.17 41 35
214 UNC Asheville 106.2 +0.17 41 31
215 Stony Brook 106.2 +0.17 41 34
216 UC Santa Barbara 106.2 +0.18 41 29
217 Maryland Eastern Shore 106.2 +0.19 40 25
218 Stanford 106.3 +0.20 40 32
219 Florida 106.4 +0.22 40 36
220 Prairie View A&M 106.4 +0.22 40 29
221 Kentucky 106.5 +0.23 39 33
222 Marshall 106.6 +0.25 39 32
223 East Carolina 106.7 +0.27 39 32
224 UAlbany 106.8 +0.29 38 31
225 Utah Tech 106.8 +0.30 38 30
226 Indiana 106.8 +0.30 38 33
227 SE Louisiana 106.8 +0.31 38 29
228 American University 106.9 +0.31 37 31
229 Monmouth 106.9 +0.32 37 33
230 Fairleigh Dickinson 106.9 +0.32 37 30
231 Long Island University 107.0 +0.34 36 29
232 Southern Indiana 107.0 +0.35 36 29
233 UC Riverside 107.1 +0.36 36 32
234 Chicago State 107.1 +0.37 36 29
235 South Alabama 107.2 +0.37 35 29
236 Furman 107.2 +0.37 35 30
237 Green Bay 107.2 +0.37 35 30
238 Nicholls 107.2 +0.38 35 31
239 High Point 107.3 +0.40 34 34
240 Southeast Missouri State 107.3 +0.41 34 27
241 George Washington 107.3 +0.41 34 31
242 Cleveland State 107.3 +0.41 33 35
243 Binghamton 107.4 +0.43 33 28
244 Murray State 107.5 +0.43 33 31
245 Mercer 107.5 +0.43 33 30
246 Howard 107.5 +0.44 32 33
247 Jackson State 107.8 +0.50 32 32
248 Northern Colorado 107.9 +0.52 32 31
249 UNC Wilmington 107.9 +0.52 31 28
250 Toledo 107.9 +0.52 31 32
251 California 107.9 +0.53 31 32
252 Florida International 108.0 +0.54 31 32
253 Ole Miss 108.0 +0.55 30 32
254 Presbyterian 108.1 +0.55 30 30
255 Montana 108.1 +0.56 30 33
256 Old Dominion 108.1 +0.57 30 31
257 Western Michigan 108.2 +0.58 29 31
258 North Dakota 108.3 +0.59 29 29
259 Idaho State 108.3 +0.59 29 32
260 Georgia State 108.3 +0.60 28 29
261 Tulane 108.3 +0.60 28 30
262 Coppin State 108.3 +0.60 28 28
263 Oregon State 108.4 +0.61 28 31
264 The Citadel 108.4 +0.62 27 29
265 Columbia 108.4 +0.62 27 24
266 UMBC 108.4 +0.63 27 31
267 New Mexico State 108.6 +0.66 27 28
268 Georgia Tech 108.6 +0.66 26 32
269 UAB 108.7 +0.68 26 34
270 La Salle 108.7 +0.68 26 32
271 East Texas A&M 108.9 +0.72 25 30
272 Loyola Marymount 108.9 +0.72 25 30
273 Loyola Maryland 108.9 +0.73 25 31
274 San Diego 108.9 +0.73 25 31
275 Florida Gulf Coast 109.0 +0.73 24 29
276 Arkansas 109.0 +0.74 24 33
277 Eastern Washington 109.0 +0.74 24 30
278 Charleston Southern 109.1 +0.76 23 27
279 Manhattan 109.1 +0.76 23 29
280 Alabama 109.1 +0.76 23 37
281 Campbell 109.2 +0.78 23 29
282 Florida A&M 109.2 +0.79 22 27
283 Iowa 109.2 +0.79 22 34
284 Northwestern State 109.3 +0.80 22 30
285 UL Monroe 109.3 +0.80 22 28
286 Jacksonville 109.3 +0.81 21 30
287 Pepperdine 109.4 +0.82 21 30
288 Stonehill 109.5 +0.84 21 31
289 Tennessee Tech 109.6 +0.86 20 28
290 UT Rio Grande Valley 109.6 +0.87 20 29
291 Lipscomb 109.7 +0.88 20 30
292 Eastern Michigan 109.7 +0.88 20 29
293 Arkansas State 109.8 +0.91 19 37
294 Northeastern 109.8 +0.91 19 32
295 South Carolina Upstate 109.9 +0.93 19 27
296 Omaha 109.9 +0.93 19 29
297 Saint Francis 109.9 +0.93 18 28
298 Eastern Kentucky 110.0 +0.94 18 28
299 Wofford 110.0 +0.95 18 29
300 Southern Utah 110.0 +0.95 17 29
301 Lindenwood 110.0 +0.95 17 28
302 Wyoming 110.3 +1.01 17 30
303 North Alabama 110.4 +1.02 17 30
304 Sacramento State 110.5 +1.04 16 32
305 Northern Arizona 110.5 +1.05 16 33
306 Milwaukee 110.5 +1.05 16 33
307 Missouri 110.6 +1.06 15 32
308 Radford 110.6 +1.06 15 31
309 Valparaiso 110.6 +1.06 15 31
310 Kennesaw State 110.6 +1.06 15 28
311 Coastal Carolina 110.7 +1.08 14 29
312 Siena 110.7 +1.09 14 32
313 West Virginia 110.7 +1.09 14 32
314 Fresno State 110.8 +1.11 14 32
315 Idaho 110.9 +1.13 13 30
316 Incarnate Word 111.0 +1.15 13 29
317 NJIT 111.2 +1.18 13 27
318 Cal Poly 111.2 +1.18 12 31
319 Vanderbilt 111.2 +1.20 12 32
320 Robert Morris 111.3 +1.20 12 30
321 Dartmouth 111.4 +1.22 12 25
322 Georgia Southern 111.5 +1.24 11 33
323 Oral Roberts 111.5 +1.24 11 28
324 Morgan State 111.6 +1.26 11 28
325 Rice 111.6 +1.27 10 31
326 North Dakota State 111.7 +1.28 10 29
327 Rhode Island 111.7 +1.28 10 31
328 Austin Peay 111.8 +1.31 10 32
329 Louisville 111.8 +1.32 9 32
330 Hampton 111.8 +1.32 9 30
331 North Florida 112.0 +1.35 9 29
332 William & Mary 112.2 +1.39 9 31
333 Wright State 112.3 +1.40 8 30
334 Queens University 112.3 +1.41 8 31
335 Pennsylvania 112.3 +1.42 8 27
336 New Orleans 112.4 +1.44 7 29
337 UTSA 112.7 +1.48 7 31
338 Elon 112.8 +1.52 7 30
339 Stetson 112.9 +1.53 7 32
340 San José State 112.9 +1.53 6 31
341 VMI 113.0 +1.55 6 29
342 Air Force 113.0 +1.56 6 31
343 Michigan 113.1 +1.57 6 32
344 Northern Illinois 113.2 +1.58 5 29
345 Buffalo 113.2 +1.60 5 30
346 Alcorn State 113.4 +1.63 5 31
347 Hartford 113.7 +1.69 4 1
348 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 114.0 +1.74 4 27
349 Denver 114.2 +1.79 4 30
350 Georgetown 114.3 +1.81 4 32
351 Bellarmine 114.3 +1.82 3 28
352 North Carolina A&T 114.5 +1.86 3 32
353 Holy Cross 114.6 +1.88 3 32
354 Central Arkansas 114.7 +1.89 2 30
355 South Dakota 115.1 +1.97 2 29
356 Saint Louis 115.1 +1.98 2 32
357 Portland 115.9 +2.14 2 31
358 Houston Christian 116.7 +2.30 1 27
359 Mississippi Valley State 116.8 +2.31 1 31
360 Pacific 117.2 +2.41 1 30
361 Detroit Mercy 117.3 +2.43 1 32
362 IU Indianapolis 118.3 +2.63 0 29
363 DePaul 119.7 +2.90 0 32