I'm gonna tell you how it's gonna be. "Not Fade Away"-The Rolling Stones

Game Outcomes

Each point is a completed game — x: home team's season-to-date value entering the game, y: away team's. home win home loss

Predicts home win: AUC 0.58 (team entering with the better value wins 56% of games)

Based on 5508 of 5727 completed games where both teams entered with a season-to-date value.

Team Distribution

Season-to-date value for every team, with a density curve.

min 3.1% max 16.2% mean 9.2% std 2.5% (n=363)

Team Rankings

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# Team Block Percentage z Pctl GP
1 Kentucky 16.2% +2.83 100 33
2 Auburn 16.0% +2.75 100 35
3 Houston 16.0% +2.74 99 37
4 Virginia 15.5% +2.55 99 34
5 Rutgers 15.3% +2.48 99 32
6 Ole Miss 15.2% +2.44 99 32
7 UCF 15.2% +2.41 98 33
8 Arkansas 15.0% +2.33 98 33
9 Bryant 15.0% +2.33 98 31
10 St. John's 14.7% +2.24 98 33
11 App State 14.7% +2.23 97 32
12 Eastern Kentucky 14.2% +2.04 97 28
13 UConn 14.2% +2.02 97 40
14 Seton Hall 14.2% +2.01 96 37
15 USC 14.2% +2.01 96 33
16 Sacred Heart 14.2% +2.01 96 30
17 Missouri 14.1% +1.97 96 32
18 UIC 14.0% +1.94 95 32
19 Grand Canyon 14.0% +1.94 95 34
20 Loyola Chicago 13.9% +1.90 95 32
21 Louisiana Tech 13.7% +1.82 94 29
22 East Tennessee State 13.5% +1.73 94 33
23 Tennessee 13.5% +1.72 94 36
24 New Mexico 13.4% +1.69 94 34
25 SMU 13.2% +1.62 93 32
26 Pittsburgh 13.0% +1.54 93 33
27 Little Rock 12.9% +1.49 93 34
28 Western Illinois 12.8% +1.45 93 29
29 VCU 12.8% +1.44 92 38
30 Duquesne 12.7% +1.41 92 36
31 Southern Miss 12.7% +1.39 92 30
32 Memphis 12.6% +1.39 91 32
33 Washington State 12.6% +1.38 91 35
34 Fordham 12.6% +1.37 91 33
35 Saint Peter's 12.5% +1.33 91 32
36 Lafayette 12.5% +1.32 90 31
37 McNeese 12.5% +1.31 90 30
38 Long Beach State 12.4% +1.31 90 34
39 Towson 12.3% +1.27 90 33
40 Northern Illinois 12.2% +1.21 89 29
41 Youngstown State 12.2% +1.20 89 28
42 Central Connecticut 12.2% +1.19 89 29
43 Utah Valley 12.2% +1.19 88 30
44 Florida State 12.1% +1.18 88 33
45 UNLV 12.1% +1.17 88 32
46 UAB 12.1% +1.16 88 34
47 Florida 12.1% +1.16 87 36
48 St. Bonaventure 12.0% +1.12 87 33
49 San Diego State 11.9% +1.08 87 35
50 George Washington 11.9% +1.07 86 31
51 Air Force 11.8% +1.05 86 31
52 Missouri State 11.8% +1.03 86 33
53 Bradley 11.7% +1.01 86 34
54 Ohio State 11.7% +1.01 85 36
55 Cincinnati 11.7% +1.01 85 37
56 Utah Tech 11.7% +1.00 85 30
57 Maryland 11.7% +0.99 85 33
58 Providence 11.7% +0.99 84 35
59 Michigan State 11.7% +0.99 84 35
60 Brown 11.6% +0.96 84 30
61 Harvard 11.5% +0.93 83 26
62 Army 11.4% +0.90 83 30
63 Texas 11.4% +0.90 83 34
64 East Texas A&M 11.4% +0.88 83 30
65 Tulane 11.4% +0.87 82 30
66 Utah State 11.4% +0.87 82 33
67 SIU Edwardsville 11.3% +0.85 82 30
68 Buffalo 11.3% +0.84 81 30
69 Milwaukee 11.3% +0.84 81 33
70 Jacksonville State 11.2% +0.82 81 29
71 Indiana 11.2% +0.81 81 33
72 Nevada 11.2% +0.79 80 33
73 Kansas 11.1% +0.78 80 33
74 Alabama State 11.1% +0.77 80 29
75 Saint Joseph's 11.1% +0.77 80 35
76 Old Dominion 11.1% +0.76 79 31
77 Dayton 11.1% +0.74 79 33
78 UMass Lowell 11.0% +0.73 79 29
79 Wake Forest 11.0% +0.71 78 35
80 Cleveland State 11.0% +0.71 78 35
81 Alabama 11.0% +0.70 78 37
82 Florida International 11.0% +0.70 78 32
83 Clemson 10.9% +0.70 77 36
84 Morehead State 10.9% +0.69 77 31
85 Vermont 10.9% +0.68 77 33
86 Kennesaw State 10.9% +0.67 77 28
87 Iowa State 10.8% +0.64 76 37
88 Kansas City 10.8% +0.63 76 29
89 Minnesota 10.8% +0.63 76 34
90 Wichita State 10.8% +0.63 75 33
91 LSU 10.8% +0.63 75 33
92 Alabama A&M 10.7% +0.61 75 35
93 Georgia Tech 10.7% +0.59 75 32
94 Oregon State 10.7% +0.59 74 31
95 Nicholls 10.7% +0.59 74 31
96 Bucknell 10.7% +0.58 74 33
97 Georgia Southern 10.7% +0.58 73 33
98 UT Arlington 10.6% +0.57 73 32
99 Marquette 10.6% +0.57 73 37
100 Kansas State 10.6% +0.56 73 34
101 UNC Asheville 10.6% +0.56 72 31
102 Marshall 10.6% +0.55 72 32
103 Davidson 10.6% +0.54 72 30
104 UTSA 10.6% +0.54 72 31
105 UCLA 10.5% +0.53 71 32
106 Cal State Bakersfield 10.5% +0.52 71 30
107 Monmouth 10.5% +0.50 71 33
108 Syracuse 10.4% +0.47 70 31
109 Central Michigan 10.4% +0.47 70 31
110 Hofstra 10.4% +0.46 70 32
111 Lamar 10.4% +0.46 70 31
112 Samford 10.4% +0.46 69 33
113 Rider 10.4% +0.46 69 31
114 Dartmouth 10.3% +0.45 69 25
115 San Francisco 10.3% +0.45 69 33
116 San Diego 10.3% +0.45 68 31
117 Utah 10.3% +0.44 68 37
118 North Carolina 10.3% +0.44 68 37
119 Siena 10.3% +0.42 67 32
120 Norfolk State 10.3% +0.42 67 31
121 George Mason 10.2% +0.41 67 31
122 Drexel 10.2% +0.40 67 31
123 TCU 10.2% +0.40 66 34
124 Arizona State 10.2% +0.39 66 32
125 Southern 10.2% +0.38 66 29
126 West Virginia 10.2% +0.37 65 32
127 Mount St. Mary's 10.1% +0.37 65 32
128 Incarnate Word 10.1% +0.36 65 29
129 Saint Francis 10.1% +0.34 65 28
130 Oregon 10.1% +0.34 64 36
131 Cal State Northridge 10.1% +0.34 64 32
132 Tarleton State 10.0% +0.32 64 32
133 Binghamton 10.0% +0.31 64 28
134 Arkansas State 10.0% +0.31 63 37
135 Rice 10.0% +0.30 63 31
136 Middle Tennessee 10.0% +0.29 63 31
137 Ohio 9.9% +0.28 62 32
138 Saint Mary's 9.9% +0.28 62 33
139 Iowa 9.9% +0.27 62 34
140 Jackson State 9.9% +0.26 62 32
141 Colgate 9.8% +0.25 61 34
142 Duke 9.8% +0.24 61 36
143 Eastern Washington 9.8% +0.24 61 30
144 Texas Southern 9.8% +0.23 60 32
145 Boston University 9.8% +0.22 60 32
146 Northeastern 9.8% +0.21 60 32
147 South Carolina Upstate 9.7% +0.21 60 27
148 Radford 9.7% +0.20 59 31
149 NC State 9.7% +0.20 59 41
150 Gonzaga 9.6% +0.16 59 34
151 South Carolina State 9.6% +0.16 59 30
152 Chattanooga 9.6% +0.16 58 31
153 Yale 9.6% +0.15 58 31
154 UC Davis 9.6% +0.13 58 31
155 Florida Gulf Coast 9.6% +0.13 57 29
156 Charlotte 9.5% +0.13 57 30
157 Merrimack 9.5% +0.12 57 31
158 South Dakota State 9.5% +0.12 57 32
159 Arizona 9.5% +0.11 56 36
160 Tennessee State 9.5% +0.10 56 29
161 Bethune-Cookman 9.5% +0.10 56 32
162 Hampton 9.5% +0.09 56 30
163 Northwestern 9.5% +0.09 55 34
164 Boston College 9.4% +0.06 55 36
165 Mercer 9.4% +0.06 55 30
166 Denver 9.4% +0.06 54 30
167 South Florida 9.4% +0.06 54 33
168 Texas A&M 9.4% +0.05 54 36
169 Idaho 9.3% +0.02 54 30
170 Purdue 9.3% +0.02 53 39
171 Miami 9.3% +0.02 53 32
172 Oral Roberts 9.3% +0.02 53 28
173 Cal Poly 9.3% +0.01 52 31
174 UMBC 9.2% +0.00 52 31
175 Central Arkansas 9.2% -0.01 52 30
176 Holy Cross 9.2% -0.02 52 32
177 Iona 9.2% -0.03 51 33
178 Texas State 9.1% -0.04 51 33
179 Louisiana 9.1% -0.04 51 31
180 Valparaiso 9.1% -0.04 51 31
181 Idaho State 9.1% -0.04 50 32
182 Washington 9.0% -0.08 50 32
183 East Carolina 9.0% -0.08 50 32
184 Quinnipiac 9.0% -0.08 49 33
185 Mississippi State 9.0% -0.09 49 35
186 Evansville 9.0% -0.09 49 34
187 Murray State 9.0% -0.09 49 31
188 Stony Brook 9.0% -0.10 48 34
189 Cal State Fullerton 9.0% -0.11 48 30
190 San José State 8.9% -0.12 48 31
191 North Texas 8.9% -0.13 48 32
192 New Mexico State 8.9% -0.14 47 28
193 NJIT 8.8% -0.16 47 27
194 Penn State 8.8% -0.16 47 33
195 New Orleans 8.8% -0.17 46 29
196 Saint Louis 8.8% -0.19 46 32
197 Oklahoma 8.7% -0.21 46 32
198 Grambling 8.7% -0.21 46 33
199 Le Moyne 8.7% -0.22 45 29
200 Presbyterian 8.7% -0.23 45 30
201 Marist 8.6% -0.24 45 31
202 DePaul 8.6% -0.25 44 32
203 Eastern Illinois 8.6% -0.25 44 27
204 Georgetown 8.6% -0.25 44 32
205 Western Kentucky 8.6% -0.25 44 31
206 Massachusetts 8.6% -0.26 43 31
207 Troy 8.6% -0.26 43 29
208 North Carolina A&T 8.6% -0.27 43 32
209 Portland State 8.6% -0.28 43 29
210 North Florida 8.5% -0.28 42 29
211 Coastal Carolina 8.5% -0.28 42 29
212 Creighton 8.5% -0.29 42 35
213 Michigan 8.5% -0.29 41 32
214 Maine 8.5% -0.30 41 31
215 Tulsa 8.5% -0.30 41 30
216 Northwestern State 8.5% -0.31 41 30
217 Richmond 8.5% -0.31 40 33
218 Xavier 8.4% -0.33 40 34
219 Georgia 8.4% -0.33 40 37
220 Baylor 8.4% -0.36 40 34
221 Stephen F. Austin 8.3% -0.37 39 31
222 Illinois 8.2% -0.40 39 38
223 Canisius 8.2% -0.40 39 31
224 High Point 8.2% -0.41 38 34
225 South Carolina 8.2% -0.42 38 34
226 Charleston 8.2% -0.42 38 34
227 Butler 8.2% -0.42 38 32
228 Purdue Fort Wayne 8.2% -0.42 37 34
229 Morgan State 8.2% -0.44 37 28
230 Lipscomb 8.1% -0.44 37 30
231 Miami (OH) 8.1% -0.45 36 30
232 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 8.1% -0.45 36 29
233 James Madison 8.1% -0.45 36 35
234 Southern Illinois 8.1% -0.46 36 31
235 La Salle 8.1% -0.46 35 32
236 Sacramento State 8.1% -0.46 35 32
237 Northern Arizona 8.1% -0.46 35 33
238 North Alabama 8.1% -0.47 35 30
239 Rhode Island 8.1% -0.47 34 31
240 Chicago State 8.1% -0.47 34 29
241 Vanderbilt 8.1% -0.47 34 32
242 UNC Greensboro 8.1% -0.47 33 30
243 Akron 8.0% -0.49 33 33
244 UC Irvine 8.0% -0.51 33 33
245 Jacksonville 8.0% -0.51 33 30
246 Temple 8.0% -0.52 32 35
247 Coppin State 8.0% -0.52 32 28
248 Southern Indiana 7.9% -0.52 32 29
249 Colorado State 7.9% -0.53 31 34
250 Wofford 7.9% -0.53 31 29
251 UC Santa Barbara 7.9% -0.54 31 29
252 Belmont 7.9% -0.55 31 32
253 Ball State 7.9% -0.55 30 29
254 Stanford 7.9% -0.56 30 32
255 Florida Atlantic 7.8% -0.57 30 34
256 Long Island University 7.8% -0.57 30 29
257 Stetson 7.8% -0.58 29 32
258 Oakland 7.8% -0.59 29 36
259 Winthrop 7.7% -0.61 29 29
260 Prairie View A&M 7.7% -0.61 28 29
261 Delaware 7.7% -0.62 28 32
262 Villanova 7.7% -0.63 28 34
263 Kent State 7.7% -0.64 28 32
264 Seattle U 7.6% -0.65 27 36
265 BYU 7.6% -0.65 27 34
266 Stonehill 7.6% -0.65 27 31
267 Florida A&M 7.6% -0.66 27 27
268 North Dakota 7.6% -0.66 26 29
269 Western Michigan 7.6% -0.67 26 31
270 UTEP 7.6% -0.68 26 31
271 Montana 7.5% -0.71 25 33
272 Northern Iowa 7.5% -0.72 25 32
273 SE Louisiana 7.5% -0.72 25 29
274 The Citadel 7.5% -0.72 25 29
275 UAlbany 7.4% -0.74 24 31
276 Howard 7.4% -0.74 24 33
277 Robert Morris 7.4% -0.75 24 30
278 Maryland Eastern Shore 7.4% -0.76 23 25
279 Charleston Southern 7.3% -0.77 23 27
280 UT Martin 7.3% -0.78 23 28
281 Manhattan 7.3% -0.80 23 29
282 Oklahoma State 7.3% -0.81 22 32
283 Pepperdine 7.3% -0.81 22 30
284 Wagner 7.2% -0.81 22 31
285 Omaha 7.2% -0.81 22 29
286 Louisville 7.2% -0.82 21 32
287 Lindenwood 7.2% -0.82 21 28
288 UC San Diego 7.2% -0.83 21 31
289 Austin Peay 7.2% -0.83 20 32
290 Longwood 7.1% -0.86 20 32
291 Nebraska 7.1% -0.86 20 34
292 Cornell 7.1% -0.88 20 28
293 Tennessee Tech 7.1% -0.88 19 28
294 Western Carolina 7.1% -0.89 19 29
295 Northern Kentucky 7.0% -0.90 19 31
296 Bowling Green 7.0% -0.90 19 32
297 Santa Clara 7.0% -0.90 18 32
298 UT Rio Grande Valley 7.0% -0.91 18 29
299 Texas Tech 7.0% -0.92 18 34
300 Elon 7.0% -0.92 17 30
301 Wright State 6.9% -0.94 17 30
302 Georgia State 6.9% -0.94 17 29
303 Columbia 6.9% -0.95 17 24
304 Southern Utah 6.9% -0.96 16 29
305 South Alabama 6.8% -0.98 16 29
306 Boise State 6.8% -0.99 16 31
307 Queens University 6.8% -1.00 15 31
308 Fairleigh Dickinson 6.8% -1.01 15 30
309 Furman 6.7% -1.02 15 30
310 North Carolina Central 6.7% -1.04 15 27
311 Campbell 6.7% -1.04 14 29
312 California 6.7% -1.04 14 32
313 Wyoming 6.7% -1.04 14 30
314 Southeast Missouri State 6.6% -1.06 14 27
315 Detroit Mercy 6.6% -1.07 13 32
316 Notre Dame 6.6% -1.07 13 33
317 Northern Colorado 6.6% -1.08 13 31
318 Mississippi Valley State 6.5% -1.10 12 31
319 Eastern Michigan 6.5% -1.11 12 29
320 Navy 6.5% -1.11 12 30
321 Loyola Marymount 6.5% -1.13 12 30
322 Virginia Tech 6.5% -1.13 11 34
323 UL Monroe 6.4% -1.14 11 28
324 Pennsylvania 6.4% -1.15 11 27
325 Illinois State 6.4% -1.15 10 31
326 Fresno State 6.4% -1.15 10 32
327 California Baptist 6.4% -1.15 10 31
328 Lehigh 6.4% -1.17 10 30
329 Sam Houston 6.4% -1.17 9 31
330 St. Thomas-Minnesota 6.3% -1.18 9 30
331 Houston Christian 6.2% -1.23 9 27
332 Montana State 6.2% -1.23 9 32
333 VMI 6.2% -1.23 8 29
334 UNC Wilmington 6.1% -1.28 8 28
335 Loyola Maryland 6.1% -1.28 8 31
336 Gardner-Webb 6.1% -1.29 7 30
337 IU Indianapolis 6.1% -1.29 7 29
338 Hawai'i 6.0% -1.31 7 32
339 Liberty 6.0% -1.31 7 29
340 Green Bay 5.9% -1.35 6 30
341 Alcorn State 5.9% -1.38 6 31
342 Portland 5.7% -1.43 6 31
343 Abilene Christian 5.7% -1.45 6 33
344 Delaware State 5.7% -1.45 5 32
345 Fairfield 5.6% -1.48 5 36
346 Colorado 5.5% -1.51 5 37
347 Pacific 5.5% -1.52 4 30
348 American University 5.5% -1.53 4 31
349 New Hampshire 5.4% -1.56 4 30
350 Toledo 5.3% -1.59 4 32
351 Niagara 5.2% -1.64 3 31
352 William & Mary 4.8% -1.80 3 31
353 Drake 4.6% -1.87 3 34
354 Bellarmine 4.6% -1.87 2 28
355 Wisconsin 4.6% -1.89 2 36
356 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 4.5% -1.91 2 27
357 Weber State 4.5% -1.94 2 29
358 Princeton 4.5% -1.94 1 27
359 Indiana State 4.5% -1.94 1 38
360 South Dakota 4.2% -2.07 1 29
361 UC Riverside 3.4% -2.36 1 32
362 North Dakota State 3.2% -2.46 0 29
363 Hartford 3.1% -2.49 0 1