You pay for this but they give you that. "Hey Hey, My My" - Neil Young

Game Outcomes

Each point is a completed game — x: home team's season-to-date value entering the game, y: away team's. home win home loss

Predicts home win: AUC 0.67 (team entering with the better value wins 62% of games)

Based on 5508 of 5727 completed games where both teams entered with a season-to-date value.

Team Distribution

Season-to-date value for every team, with a density curve.

min 0.41 max 1.95 mean 1.12 std 0.24 (n=363)

Team Rankings

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# Team Assist-to-Turnover Ratio z Pctl GP
1 UConn 1.95 +3.41 100 40
2 Virginia 1.86 +3.02 100 34
3 Iowa 1.85 +3.00 99 34
4 Princeton 1.77 +2.66 99 27
5 Northwestern 1.77 +2.65 99 34
6 BYU 1.73 +2.49 99 34
7 Gonzaga 1.70 +2.37 98 34
8 Colorado State 1.69 +2.33 98 34
9 Auburn 1.66 +2.22 98 35
10 Drake 1.66 +2.20 98 34
11 Kentucky 1.64 +2.15 97 33
12 Tennessee 1.63 +2.09 97 36
13 Purdue 1.63 +2.09 97 39
14 Kansas 1.62 +2.04 96 33
15 Michigan State 1.59 +1.95 96 35
16 Marquette 1.59 +1.93 96 37
17 Creighton 1.58 +1.89 96 35
18 Duke 1.58 +1.88 95 36
19 Saint Mary's 1.56 +1.80 95 33
20 Arizona 1.55 +1.75 95 36
21 Utah 1.54 +1.70 94 37
22 Indiana State 1.53 +1.69 94 38
23 Richmond 1.53 +1.68 94 33
24 Charleston 1.52 +1.66 94 34
25 South Carolina 1.52 +1.66 93 34
26 Pittsburgh 1.52 +1.65 93 33
27 Yale 1.52 +1.63 93 31
28 McNeese 1.51 +1.61 93 30
29 Iowa State 1.50 +1.58 92 37
30 James Madison 1.47 +1.45 92 35
31 Clemson 1.47 +1.43 92 36
32 Houston 1.47 +1.42 91 37
33 Nevada 1.46 +1.39 91 33
34 Utah State 1.46 +1.38 91 33
35 La Salle 1.44 +1.33 91 32
36 Minnesota 1.44 +1.32 90 34
37 North Carolina 1.44 +1.30 90 37
38 St. John's 1.43 +1.29 90 33
39 Cornell 1.43 +1.26 90 28
40 Hofstra 1.43 +1.26 89 32
41 Vermont 1.42 +1.23 89 33
42 Lipscomb 1.42 +1.23 89 30
43 New Mexico 1.42 +1.22 88 34
44 Iona 1.41 +1.20 88 33
45 Dayton 1.41 +1.19 88 33
46 Ole Miss 1.41 +1.18 88 32
47 Furman 1.40 +1.15 87 30
48 Massachusetts 1.40 +1.15 87 31
49 Montana 1.40 +1.14 87 33
50 Xavier 1.39 +1.12 86 34
51 Ohio 1.39 +1.10 86 32
52 SMU 1.38 +1.09 86 32
53 Nebraska 1.38 +1.08 86 34
54 Liberty 1.38 +1.07 85 29
55 South Florida 1.38 +1.07 85 33
56 NC State 1.37 +1.02 85 41
57 Virginia Tech 1.37 +1.02 85 34
58 Colgate 1.37 +1.01 84 34
59 San Francisco 1.36 +0.98 84 33
60 Butler 1.36 +0.98 84 32
61 Oregon 1.36 +0.98 83 36
62 Boston College 1.35 +0.96 83 36
63 St. Thomas-Minnesota 1.35 +0.95 83 30
64 Wright State 1.35 +0.93 83 30
65 Alabama 1.34 +0.92 82 37
66 Villanova 1.34 +0.89 82 34
67 Ohio State 1.33 +0.87 82 36
68 Texas Tech 1.33 +0.85 81 34
69 Oakland 1.32 +0.82 81 36
70 Columbia 1.32 +0.81 81 24
71 UC Riverside 1.31 +0.80 81 32
72 TCU 1.31 +0.80 80 34
73 App State 1.31 +0.78 80 32
74 UNC Wilmington 1.31 +0.77 80 28
75 Wofford 1.30 +0.76 80 29
76 Texas 1.30 +0.75 79 34
77 Florida Atlantic 1.30 +0.75 79 34
78 Bellarmine 1.30 +0.75 79 28
79 Samford 1.30 +0.75 78 33
80 Florida 1.30 +0.74 78 36
81 Charlotte 1.30 +0.74 78 30
82 Le Moyne 1.30 +0.73 78 29
83 UC Irvine 1.30 +0.72 77 33
84 Arkansas State 1.29 +0.72 77 37
85 Youngstown State 1.29 +0.72 77 28
86 Northern Colorado 1.29 +0.71 77 31
87 Washington 1.29 +0.70 76 32
88 UNC Greensboro 1.29 +0.69 76 30
89 Colorado 1.28 +0.68 76 37
90 Wisconsin 1.28 +0.66 75 36
91 Saint Joseph's 1.28 +0.66 75 35
92 Southern Illinois 1.28 +0.65 75 31
93 UC San Diego 1.27 +0.64 75 31
94 Cleveland State 1.27 +0.63 74 35
95 Denver 1.27 +0.61 74 30
96 Belmont 1.27 +0.61 74 32
97 Illinois 1.26 +0.59 73 38
98 Lamar 1.26 +0.58 73 31
99 Indiana 1.26 +0.58 73 33
100 San José State 1.26 +0.57 73 31
101 Stanford 1.26 +0.56 72 32
102 Eastern Washington 1.25 +0.56 72 30
103 Toledo 1.25 +0.55 72 32
104 Monmouth 1.25 +0.55 72 33
105 Delaware 1.25 +0.53 71 32
106 Purdue Fort Wayne 1.25 +0.52 71 34
107 Loyola Chicago 1.24 +0.50 71 32
108 Marshall 1.24 +0.48 70 32
109 American University 1.23 +0.48 70 31
110 USC 1.23 +0.47 70 33
111 Pennsylvania 1.23 +0.46 70 27
112 Tulane 1.23 +0.46 69 30
113 Fairfield 1.23 +0.45 69 36
114 UTSA 1.22 +0.42 69 31
115 Cincinnati 1.21 +0.39 69 37
116 Air Force 1.21 +0.39 68 31
117 Baylor 1.21 +0.38 68 34
118 Wagner 1.21 +0.38 68 31
119 UNC Asheville 1.21 +0.37 67 31
120 Central Connecticut 1.21 +0.36 67 29
121 Little Rock 1.20 +0.34 67 34
122 Tarleton State 1.20 +0.33 67 32
123 Long Beach State 1.20 +0.33 66 34
124 Murray State 1.20 +0.32 66 31
125 Texas A&M 1.19 +0.30 66 36
126 Rice 1.19 +0.30 65 31
127 Northern Iowa 1.19 +0.30 65 32
128 Miami (OH) 1.19 +0.29 65 30
129 Syracuse 1.18 +0.27 65 31
130 Mercer 1.18 +0.25 64 30
131 Miami 1.18 +0.24 64 32
132 Austin Peay 1.18 +0.23 64 32
133 Bryant 1.17 +0.23 64 31
134 San Diego State 1.17 +0.22 63 35
135 Pepperdine 1.17 +0.20 63 30
136 UNLV 1.16 +0.19 63 32
137 Santa Clara 1.16 +0.17 62 32
138 Eastern Kentucky 1.15 +0.14 62 28
139 St. Bonaventure 1.15 +0.13 62 33
140 Weber State 1.15 +0.13 62 29
141 Stetson 1.15 +0.13 61 32
142 Arizona State 1.15 +0.13 61 32
143 Utah Valley 1.15 +0.13 61 30
144 Stony Brook 1.15 +0.12 60 34
145 Wake Forest 1.14 +0.11 60 35
146 Duquesne 1.14 +0.10 60 36
147 Penn State 1.14 +0.09 60 33
148 Kennesaw State 1.14 +0.09 59 28
149 Quinnipiac 1.14 +0.08 59 33
150 UAB 1.14 +0.08 59 34
151 Morehead State 1.14 +0.08 59 31
152 Fairleigh Dickinson 1.14 +0.08 58 30
153 Navy 1.14 +0.07 58 30
154 Washington State 1.14 +0.07 58 35
155 Georgia State 1.13 +0.07 57 29
156 East Carolina 1.13 +0.06 57 32
157 Lafayette 1.13 +0.05 57 31
158 Binghamton 1.13 +0.03 57 28
159 Temple 1.13 +0.03 56 35
160 Providence 1.13 +0.03 56 35
161 South Dakota State 1.12 +0.01 56 32
162 Pacific 1.12 +0.01 56 30
163 Sacred Heart 1.12 -0.00 55 30
164 Davidson 1.12 -0.01 55 30
165 Eastern Illinois 1.12 -0.01 55 27
166 Chattanooga 1.12 -0.01 54 31
167 VCU 1.11 -0.01 54 38
168 Drexel 1.11 -0.02 54 31
169 UT Martin 1.11 -0.02 54 28
170 North Dakota 1.10 -0.06 53 29
171 Northern Kentucky 1.10 -0.06 53 31
172 Western Carolina 1.10 -0.06 53 29
173 Illinois State 1.10 -0.07 52 31
174 Portland 1.10 -0.08 52 31
175 Saint Louis 1.10 -0.08 52 32
176 Loyola Marymount 1.10 -0.09 52 30
177 Gardner-Webb 1.09 -0.10 51 30
178 Evansville 1.09 -0.10 51 34
179 Northeastern 1.09 -0.10 51 32
180 William & Mary 1.09 -0.10 51 31
181 UIC 1.09 -0.12 50 32
182 North Carolina A&T 1.09 -0.13 50 32
183 Akron 1.09 -0.13 50 33
184 Milwaukee 1.08 -0.14 49 33
185 Montana State 1.08 -0.14 49 32
186 Valparaiso 1.08 -0.14 49 31
187 Georgia Tech 1.08 -0.15 49 32
188 Bradley 1.08 -0.16 48 34
189 Mississippi State 1.08 -0.16 48 35
190 Boston University 1.07 -0.18 48 32
191 Oklahoma 1.07 -0.20 48 32
192 Kent State 1.07 -0.20 47 32
193 Northern Arizona 1.07 -0.21 47 33
194 Queens University 1.07 -0.21 47 31
195 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 1.07 -0.21 46 29
196 Boise State 1.06 -0.22 46 31
197 Lehigh 1.06 -0.24 46 30
198 Oral Roberts 1.06 -0.25 46 28
199 Missouri 1.05 -0.26 45 32
200 Maine 1.05 -0.26 45 31
201 Brown 1.05 -0.27 45 30
202 Elon 1.05 -0.28 44 30
203 Rider 1.05 -0.28 44 31
204 Idaho State 1.05 -0.28 44 32
205 South Carolina Upstate 1.05 -0.29 44 27
206 California 1.05 -0.29 43 32
207 Manhattan 1.05 -0.29 43 29
208 Memphis 1.05 -0.30 43 32
209 Harvard 1.04 -0.30 43 26
210 Niagara 1.04 -0.31 42 31
211 Presbyterian 1.04 -0.31 42 30
212 North Alabama 1.04 -0.31 42 30
213 Campbell 1.04 -0.31 41 29
214 East Texas A&M 1.04 -0.32 41 30
215 Oklahoma State 1.04 -0.33 41 32
216 Florida State 1.04 -0.34 41 33
217 Georgia 1.04 -0.34 40 37
218 Central Arkansas 1.03 -0.34 40 30
219 Rutgers 1.03 -0.35 40 32
220 Seton Hall 1.03 -0.35 40 37
221 Green Bay 1.03 -0.36 39 30
222 West Virginia 1.03 -0.36 39 32
223 Kansas City 1.03 -0.38 39 29
224 UCLA 1.02 -0.40 38 32
225 Marist 1.02 -0.41 38 31
226 Army 1.02 -0.41 38 30
227 Idaho 1.01 -0.42 38 30
228 North Florida 1.01 -0.43 37 29
229 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 1.01 -0.44 37 27
230 Missouri State 1.01 -0.46 37 33
231 Georgetown 1.00 -0.47 36 32
232 Louisiana 1.00 -0.48 36 31
233 Omaha 1.00 -0.48 36 29
234 Radford 1.00 -0.49 36 31
235 San Diego 1.00 -0.50 35 31
236 George Washington 0.99 -0.50 35 31
237 Alcorn State 0.99 -0.50 35 31
238 Ball State 0.99 -0.50 35 29
239 Florida International 0.99 -0.51 34 32
240 UMBC 0.99 -0.52 34 31
241 Rhode Island 0.99 -0.52 34 31
242 High Point 0.99 -0.53 33 34
243 Longwood 0.99 -0.53 33 32
244 Seattle U 0.99 -0.54 33 36
245 Holy Cross 0.99 -0.54 33 32
246 Bucknell 0.99 -0.54 32 33
247 Fresno State 0.99 -0.54 32 32
248 SIU Edwardsville 0.98 -0.55 32 30
249 Fordham 0.98 -0.55 31 33
250 George Mason 0.98 -0.55 31 31
251 Southern Utah 0.98 -0.55 31 29
252 SE Louisiana 0.98 -0.56 31 29
253 UT Arlington 0.98 -0.56 30 32
254 Arkansas 0.98 -0.56 30 33
255 Florida Gulf Coast 0.98 -0.58 30 29
256 Bowling Green 0.98 -0.58 30 32
257 North Texas 0.97 -0.58 29 32
258 UC Santa Barbara 0.97 -0.59 29 29
259 Wichita State 0.97 -0.59 29 33
260 Cal State Northridge 0.97 -0.61 28 32
261 North Dakota State 0.97 -0.62 28 29
262 Robert Morris 0.97 -0.62 28 30
263 Michigan 0.97 -0.62 28 32
264 California Baptist 0.96 -0.64 27 31
265 Tulsa 0.96 -0.65 27 30
266 Abilene Christian 0.96 -0.66 27 33
267 Buffalo 0.95 -0.68 27 30
268 Old Dominion 0.95 -0.68 26 31
269 UAlbany 0.95 -0.69 26 31
270 Sam Houston 0.95 -0.69 26 31
271 Canisius 0.95 -0.70 25 31
272 Central Michigan 0.95 -0.70 25 31
273 Kansas State 0.94 -0.71 25 34
274 Dartmouth 0.94 -0.71 25 25
275 Hawai'i 0.94 -0.73 24 32
276 Loyola Maryland 0.94 -0.74 24 31
277 Western Kentucky 0.94 -0.75 24 31
278 UC Davis 0.93 -0.75 23 31
279 Hampton 0.93 -0.75 23 30
280 Grand Canyon 0.93 -0.75 23 34
281 UL Monroe 0.93 -0.76 23 28
282 Southeast Missouri State 0.93 -0.77 22 27
283 Maryland 0.93 -0.77 22 33
284 Southern 0.93 -0.77 22 29
285 Portland State 0.93 -0.78 22 29
286 Louisiana Tech 0.93 -0.78 21 29
287 New Hampshire 0.93 -0.78 21 30
288 Prairie View A&M 0.92 -0.79 21 29
289 North Carolina Central 0.92 -0.80 20 27
290 South Dakota 0.92 -0.81 20 29
291 Howard 0.92 -0.81 20 33
292 Western Illinois 0.92 -0.82 20 29
293 Southern Miss 0.91 -0.83 19 30
294 Tennessee Tech 0.91 -0.83 19 28
295 South Alabama 0.91 -0.84 19 29
296 Norfolk State 0.91 -0.84 19 31
297 Western Michigan 0.91 -0.85 18 31
298 Mount St. Mary's 0.91 -0.85 18 32
299 Troy 0.91 -0.85 18 29
300 Merrimack 0.91 -0.86 17 31
301 UCF 0.91 -0.86 17 33
302 The Citadel 0.91 -0.87 17 29
303 Florida A&M 0.90 -0.88 17 27
304 DePaul 0.90 -0.89 16 32
305 Vanderbilt 0.90 -0.89 16 32
306 Eastern Michigan 0.90 -0.89 16 29
307 East Tennessee State 0.90 -0.90 15 33
308 Jackson State 0.90 -0.90 15 32
309 Towson 0.90 -0.91 15 33
310 LSU 0.89 -0.92 15 33
311 Wyoming 0.89 -0.92 14 30
312 Alabama State 0.89 -0.93 14 29
313 UMass Lowell 0.89 -0.94 14 29
314 Oregon State 0.89 -0.95 14 31
315 Texas Southern 0.88 -0.96 13 32
316 Coastal Carolina 0.88 -0.96 13 29
317 New Orleans 0.88 -0.98 13 29
318 NJIT 0.88 -0.98 12 27
319 Stonehill 0.87 -1.02 12 31
320 Louisville 0.87 -1.02 12 32
321 Long Island University 0.87 -1.03 12 29
322 New Mexico State 0.87 -1.03 11 28
323 Nicholls 0.86 -1.06 11 31
324 South Carolina State 0.86 -1.06 11 30
325 Saint Francis 0.86 -1.07 10 28
326 UT Rio Grande Valley 0.85 -1.10 10 29
327 Winthrop 0.85 -1.11 10 29
328 Cal State Bakersfield 0.84 -1.14 10 30
329 Saint Peter's 0.84 -1.15 9 32
330 Tennessee State 0.83 -1.16 9 29
331 Bethune-Cookman 0.83 -1.18 9 32
332 Northwestern State 0.82 -1.22 9 30
333 Utah Tech 0.82 -1.22 8 30
334 Detroit Mercy 0.81 -1.24 8 32
335 Georgia Southern 0.81 -1.24 8 33
336 Sacramento State 0.81 -1.24 7 32
337 Notre Dame 0.81 -1.25 7 33
338 Texas State 0.80 -1.30 7 33
339 Southern Indiana 0.80 -1.30 7 29
340 Morgan State 0.79 -1.36 6 28
341 Cal Poly 0.78 -1.37 6 31
342 Northern Illinois 0.78 -1.38 6 29
343 UTEP 0.77 -1.40 6 31
344 Jacksonville 0.77 -1.40 5 30
345 Delaware State 0.77 -1.43 5 32
346 Stephen F. Austin 0.76 -1.44 5 31
347 Jacksonville State 0.76 -1.45 4 29
348 Charleston Southern 0.75 -1.50 4 27
349 Incarnate Word 0.75 -1.50 4 29
350 Maryland Eastern Shore 0.73 -1.57 4 25
351 Chicago State 0.73 -1.57 3 29
352 Grambling 0.70 -1.73 3 33
353 IU Indianapolis 0.69 -1.73 3 29
354 Middle Tennessee 0.68 -1.77 2 31
355 Cal State Fullerton 0.68 -1.78 2 30
356 Houston Christian 0.68 -1.78 2 27
357 Siena 0.68 -1.80 2 32
358 Alabama A&M 0.65 -1.90 1 35
359 Lindenwood 0.62 -2.02 1 28
360 VMI 0.59 -2.17 1 29
361 Mississippi Valley State 0.55 -2.32 1 31
362 Coppin State 0.53 -2.38 0 28
363 Hartford 0.41 -2.89 0 1