What ever happened to Leon Trotsky? "No More Heroes" - The Stranglers

Game Outcomes

Each point is a completed game — x: home team's season-to-date value entering the game, y: away team's. home win home loss

Predicts home win: AUC 0.58 (team entering with the better value wins 56% of games)

Based on 5508 of 5727 completed games where both teams entered with a season-to-date value.

Team Distribution

Season-to-date value for every team, with a density curve.

min 35.0% max 66.9% mean 50.5% std 5.6% (n=363)

Team Rankings

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# Team Assisted Field Goal Percentage z Pctl GP
1 Kansas 66.9% +2.92 100 33
2 Colorado State 64.9% +2.57 100 34
3 Purdue 64.9% +2.57 99 39
4 Minnesota 64.6% +2.51 99 34
5 UConn 63.6% +2.32 99 40
6 BYU 63.4% +2.30 99 34
7 Loyola Chicago 63.3% +2.28 98 32
8 Virginia 63.0% +2.23 98 34
9 Auburn 62.4% +2.12 98 35
10 Eastern Washington 62.3% +2.11 98 30
11 Air Force 62.0% +2.05 97 31
12 Columbia 61.8% +2.01 97 24
13 Tennessee 61.3% +1.92 97 36
14 Indiana State 60.8% +1.84 96 38
15 Le Moyne 60.7% +1.82 96 29
16 South Carolina 60.6% +1.80 96 34
17 Utah 60.4% +1.77 96 37
18 SE Louisiana 60.3% +1.75 95 29
19 Xavier 59.7% +1.64 95 34
20 UT Arlington 59.7% +1.63 95 32
21 Cornell 59.7% +1.63 94 28
22 TCU 59.6% +1.63 94 34
23 Lamar 59.5% +1.60 94 31
24 Northwestern 59.4% +1.59 94 34
25 Arizona 59.2% +1.54 93 36
26 Iowa 59.1% +1.54 93 34
27 USC 59.1% +1.53 93 33
28 Saint Mary's 58.9% +1.49 93 33
29 Pacific 58.8% +1.48 92 30
30 Michigan State 58.8% +1.48 92 35
31 South Florida 58.7% +1.46 92 33
32 Stanford 58.4% +1.41 91 32
33 Utah Valley 58.4% +1.40 91 30
34 Furman 58.3% +1.40 91 30
35 Samford 58.3% +1.39 91 33
36 Dayton 58.1% +1.36 90 33
37 Southern Illinois 58.1% +1.36 90 31
38 Iowa State 58.1% +1.35 90 37
39 Nevada 58.1% +1.35 90 33
40 Virginia Tech 58.0% +1.34 89 34
41 Creighton 57.9% +1.32 89 35
42 Ole Miss 57.7% +1.28 89 32
43 Manhattan 57.7% +1.28 88 29
44 Miami (OH) 57.4% +1.24 88 30
45 Indiana 57.3% +1.22 88 33
46 Colorado 57.2% +1.20 88 37
47 Nebraska 57.1% +1.18 87 34
48 Texas Tech 57.1% +1.18 87 34
49 Marshall 57.0% +1.15 87 32
50 Liberty 56.9% +1.14 86 29
51 UNC Asheville 56.9% +1.14 86 31
52 Fairleigh Dickinson 56.9% +1.14 86 30
53 VCU 56.8% +1.13 86 38
54 Kansas State 56.8% +1.12 85 34
55 Lafayette 56.6% +1.09 85 31
56 Wofford 56.6% +1.09 85 29
57 American University 56.4% +1.06 85 31
58 Utah State 56.3% +1.04 84 33
59 Massachusetts 56.3% +1.03 84 31
60 Drake 56.3% +1.03 84 34
61 Army 56.3% +1.03 83 30
62 Florida A&M 56.2% +1.02 83 27
63 Colgate 56.2% +1.01 83 34
64 Loyola Maryland 55.7% +0.93 83 31
65 Dartmouth 55.5% +0.90 82 25
66 Hofstra 55.5% +0.89 82 32
67 SMU 55.4% +0.88 82 32
68 Howard 55.4% +0.87 81 33
69 Saint Joseph's 55.3% +0.85 81 35
70 Belmont 55.3% +0.85 81 32
71 Iona 55.2% +0.84 81 33
72 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 55.1% +0.83 80 27
73 San Francisco 55.0% +0.80 80 33
74 Long Beach State 55.0% +0.80 80 34
75 Rice 55.0% +0.80 80 31
76 Texas 54.9% +0.79 79 34
77 Boston University 54.9% +0.79 79 32
78 Kentucky 54.9% +0.78 79 33
79 Duke 54.9% +0.78 78 36
80 Southern 54.8% +0.77 78 29
81 Binghamton 54.7% +0.75 78 28
82 Marquette 54.5% +0.71 78 37
83 UC Irvine 54.4% +0.70 77 33
84 West Virginia 54.4% +0.69 77 32
85 Central Connecticut 54.2% +0.67 77 29
86 Wagner 54.2% +0.66 77 31
87 UNC Greensboro 54.2% +0.66 76 30
88 Santa Clara 54.2% +0.66 76 32
89 James Madison 54.1% +0.65 76 35
90 Buffalo 54.1% +0.65 75 30
91 DePaul 54.1% +0.64 75 32
92 Charlotte 54.1% +0.64 75 30
93 Oakland 54.0% +0.63 75 36
94 Oklahoma State 54.0% +0.62 74 32
95 Sacramento State 53.9% +0.60 74 32
96 La Salle 53.8% +0.60 74 32
97 Northern Arizona 53.8% +0.59 73 33
98 Duquesne 53.8% +0.59 73 36
99 Clemson 53.8% +0.59 73 36
100 Central Arkansas 53.7% +0.58 73 30
101 Northeastern 53.7% +0.57 72 32
102 South Carolina State 53.6% +0.56 72 30
103 Mississippi State 53.5% +0.55 72 35
104 Providence 53.5% +0.54 72 35
105 Charleston 53.5% +0.54 71 34
106 UIC 53.5% +0.53 71 32
107 Butler 53.4% +0.53 71 32
108 St. John's 53.4% +0.52 70 33
109 Yale 53.4% +0.52 70 31
110 Baylor 53.3% +0.51 70 34
111 Illinois State 53.2% +0.49 70 31
112 Portland 53.1% +0.47 69 31
113 Morehead State 53.1% +0.46 69 31
114 Brown 53.0% +0.45 69 30
115 Ohio State 53.0% +0.45 69 36
116 UTSA 52.9% +0.44 68 31
117 Pennsylvania 52.9% +0.43 68 27
118 Villanova 52.9% +0.43 68 34
119 Cincinnati 52.8% +0.41 67 37
120 East Texas A&M 52.6% +0.39 67 30
121 Bucknell 52.6% +0.39 67 33
122 Gonzaga 52.6% +0.38 67 34
123 Princeton 52.5% +0.36 66 27
124 UC Riverside 52.5% +0.36 66 32
125 Fordham 52.5% +0.36 66 33
126 Arkansas State 52.5% +0.36 65 37
127 Saint Francis 52.5% +0.36 65 28
128 Marist 52.5% +0.36 65 31
129 Georgia Tech 52.5% +0.36 65 32
130 Little Rock 52.5% +0.35 64 34
131 Harvard 52.4% +0.34 64 26
132 Vermont 52.2% +0.32 64 33
133 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 52.2% +0.30 64 29
134 Utah Tech 52.2% +0.30 63 30
135 Green Bay 52.1% +0.30 63 30
136 Robert Morris 52.1% +0.30 63 30
137 Elon 52.1% +0.30 62 30
138 Campbell 52.1% +0.28 62 29
139 Florida International 52.0% +0.27 62 32
140 Montana 51.9% +0.26 62 33
141 Boston College 51.8% +0.24 61 36
142 Pittsburgh 51.8% +0.23 61 33
143 Washington 51.8% +0.23 61 32
144 Alabama 51.7% +0.21 60 37
145 McNeese 51.5% +0.19 60 30
146 Western Illinois 51.5% +0.19 60 29
147 Ball State 51.5% +0.18 60 29
148 Navy 51.5% +0.18 59 30
149 Long Island University 51.4% +0.17 59 29
150 San José State 51.4% +0.16 59 31
151 Stonehill 51.3% +0.14 59 31
152 North Carolina 51.2% +0.14 58 37
153 Tarleton State 51.2% +0.14 58 32
154 Oklahoma 51.1% +0.12 58 32
155 Quinnipiac 51.1% +0.11 57 33
156 Wright State 51.1% +0.11 57 30
157 UC Davis 51.1% +0.11 57 31
158 Miami 51.1% +0.11 57 32
159 Delaware 51.1% +0.11 56 32
160 Rider 51.0% +0.10 56 31
161 Youngstown State 51.0% +0.09 56 28
162 St. Thomas-Minnesota 50.9% +0.08 56 30
163 Saint Louis 50.9% +0.08 55 32
164 Florida Atlantic 50.9% +0.08 55 34
165 San Diego 50.8% +0.06 55 31
166 UT Rio Grande Valley 50.8% +0.06 54 29
167 Northern Kentucky 50.8% +0.06 54 31
168 Bryant 50.8% +0.05 54 31
169 Florida 50.7% +0.04 54 36
170 Kansas City 50.7% +0.04 53 29
171 Oregon 50.6% +0.03 53 36
172 Davidson 50.6% +0.02 53 30
173 Merrimack 50.6% +0.01 52 31
174 Tulsa 50.5% +0.01 52 30
175 Lehigh 50.5% +0.01 52 30
176 San Diego State 50.5% +0.01 52 35
177 Georgetown 50.5% -0.00 51 32
178 William & Mary 50.4% -0.01 51 31
179 Ohio 50.4% -0.01 51 32
180 Fresno State 50.4% -0.02 51 32
181 Sacred Heart 50.4% -0.02 50 30
182 Tulane 50.4% -0.02 50 30
183 Rutgers 50.3% -0.04 50 32
184 East Carolina 50.3% -0.04 49 32
185 Monmouth 50.2% -0.04 49 33
186 Milwaukee 50.2% -0.04 49 33
187 Bellarmine 50.2% -0.05 49 28
188 UAB 50.2% -0.05 48 34
189 Troy 50.1% -0.07 48 29
190 Cal State Northridge 50.1% -0.07 48 32
191 UC Santa Barbara 50.0% -0.08 48 29
192 Seattle U 49.9% -0.09 47 36
193 Syracuse 49.9% -0.09 47 31
194 Richmond 49.9% -0.10 47 33
195 Sam Houston 49.9% -0.11 46 31
196 Evansville 49.8% -0.11 46 34
197 Northern Colorado 49.7% -0.14 46 31
198 Maine 49.7% -0.14 46 31
199 Mercer 49.6% -0.15 45 30
200 Chattanooga 49.6% -0.16 45 31
201 Rhode Island 49.6% -0.16 45 31
202 Pepperdine 49.6% -0.16 44 30
203 Niagara 49.5% -0.17 44 31
204 Fairfield 49.4% -0.19 44 36
205 Houston 49.3% -0.20 44 37
206 Western Michigan 49.3% -0.21 43 31
207 Kent State 49.2% -0.22 43 32
208 UTEP 49.0% -0.25 43 31
209 Bradley 49.0% -0.27 43 34
210 Abilene Christian 49.0% -0.27 42 33
211 Idaho 48.9% -0.28 42 30
212 Memphis 48.8% -0.29 42 32
213 Penn State 48.8% -0.29 41 33
214 UL Monroe 48.8% -0.30 41 28
215 Incarnate Word 48.8% -0.30 41 29
216 App State 48.8% -0.31 41 32
217 Seton Hall 48.7% -0.31 40 37
218 Siena 48.7% -0.31 40 32
219 New Mexico 48.7% -0.31 40 34
220 Lipscomb 48.7% -0.32 40 30
221 Arizona State 48.7% -0.32 39 32
222 Hawai'i 48.7% -0.32 39 32
223 Gardner-Webb 48.6% -0.33 39 30
224 Southern Miss 48.6% -0.33 38 30
225 Southern Indiana 48.5% -0.34 38 29
226 Northern Iowa 48.5% -0.35 38 32
227 Prairie View A&M 48.5% -0.35 38 29
228 Stephen F. Austin 48.4% -0.36 37 31
229 Stetson 48.4% -0.36 37 32
230 Saint Peter's 48.4% -0.38 37 32
231 Hampton 48.3% -0.38 36 30
232 Missouri 48.3% -0.38 36 32
233 St. Bonaventure 48.3% -0.39 36 33
234 Mount St. Mary's 48.3% -0.39 36 32
235 Akron 48.3% -0.39 35 33
236 Michigan 48.3% -0.39 35 32
237 Longwood 48.2% -0.40 35 32
238 Montana State 48.2% -0.40 35 32
239 California Baptist 48.2% -0.41 34 31
240 Valparaiso 48.2% -0.41 34 31
241 UNLV 48.1% -0.42 34 32
242 Kennesaw State 48.1% -0.42 33 28
243 Wisconsin 48.1% -0.42 33 36
244 Louisiana Tech 48.1% -0.42 33 29
245 Jackson State 48.1% -0.43 33 32
246 NC State 48.0% -0.44 32 41
247 Delaware State 47.9% -0.46 32 32
248 Canisius 47.8% -0.47 32 31
249 Southeast Missouri State 47.8% -0.47 31 27
250 Tennessee State 47.7% -0.49 31 29
251 Bethune-Cookman 47.5% -0.53 31 32
252 Eastern Illinois 47.5% -0.53 31 27
253 UCLA 47.4% -0.54 30 32
254 South Carolina Upstate 47.3% -0.57 30 27
255 Purdue Fort Wayne 47.3% -0.57 30 34
256 Cleveland State 47.2% -0.58 30 35
257 Norfolk State 47.1% -0.59 29 31
258 Eastern Kentucky 47.1% -0.60 29 28
259 Missouri State 47.1% -0.61 29 33
260 UC San Diego 47.0% -0.61 28 31
261 Maryland 47.0% -0.62 28 33
262 Maryland Eastern Shore 47.0% -0.63 28 25
263 Presbyterian 46.9% -0.63 28 30
264 South Dakota State 46.9% -0.63 27 32
265 George Mason 46.8% -0.64 27 31
266 Tennessee Tech 46.8% -0.65 27 28
267 George Washington 46.8% -0.65 27 31
268 Toledo 46.7% -0.66 26 32
269 Loyola Marymount 46.6% -0.69 26 30
270 California 46.5% -0.71 26 32
271 Wyoming 46.4% -0.73 25 30
272 Denver 46.3% -0.74 25 30
273 Georgia 46.2% -0.75 25 37
274 Towson 46.2% -0.75 25 33
275 Drexel 46.1% -0.77 24 31
276 Nicholls 46.0% -0.79 24 31
277 Boise State 46.0% -0.79 24 31
278 Texas Southern 46.0% -0.79 23 32
279 Southern Utah 46.0% -0.80 23 29
280 Central Michigan 46.0% -0.80 23 31
281 Oregon State 45.9% -0.81 23 31
282 UCF 45.9% -0.81 22 33
283 Washington State 45.9% -0.81 22 35
284 Coastal Carolina 45.9% -0.82 22 29
285 Illinois 45.8% -0.82 22 38
286 Stony Brook 45.8% -0.82 21 34
287 Alabama A&M 45.8% -0.83 21 35
288 Idaho State 45.8% -0.83 21 32
289 Queens University 45.6% -0.86 20 31
290 Temple 45.6% -0.87 20 35
291 East Tennessee State 45.5% -0.87 20 33
292 Northwestern State 45.5% -0.88 20 30
293 Detroit Mercy 45.5% -0.89 19 32
294 Alcorn State 45.5% -0.89 19 31
295 North Carolina Central 45.4% -0.90 19 27
296 Notre Dame 45.1% -0.95 19 33
297 UT Martin 45.1% -0.95 18 28
298 Grand Canyon 45.1% -0.95 18 34
299 Winthrop 45.1% -0.96 18 29
300 Texas State 45.1% -0.96 17 33
301 New Mexico State 45.1% -0.96 17 28
302 Arkansas 45.1% -0.96 17 33
303 North Texas 45.0% -0.97 17 32
304 Western Kentucky 45.0% -0.97 16 31
305 North Florida 45.0% -0.97 16 29
306 New Orleans 45.0% -0.97 16 29
307 Florida State 45.0% -0.98 15 33
308 North Carolina A&T 44.9% -0.99 15 32
309 New Hampshire 44.7% -1.02 15 30
310 LSU 44.7% -1.02 15 33
311 South Dakota 44.6% -1.04 14 29
312 Louisville 44.6% -1.05 14 32
313 Texas A&M 44.5% -1.06 14 36
314 UAlbany 44.5% -1.06 14 31
315 Alabama State 44.4% -1.07 13 29
316 Morgan State 44.4% -1.08 13 28
317 Wake Forest 44.3% -1.09 13 35
318 Murray State 44.3% -1.10 12 31
319 Florida Gulf Coast 44.2% -1.11 12 29
320 Wichita State 44.2% -1.11 12 33
321 Mississippi Valley State 44.2% -1.11 12 31
322 Weber State 44.2% -1.12 11 29
323 The Citadel 43.9% -1.17 11 29
324 Cal Poly 43.9% -1.17 11 31
325 Holy Cross 43.8% -1.18 10 32
326 Middle Tennessee 43.8% -1.19 10 31
327 North Dakota 43.5% -1.23 10 29
328 UMBC 43.5% -1.24 10 31
329 UMass Lowell 43.5% -1.24 9 29
330 Chicago State 43.5% -1.24 9 29
331 Louisiana 43.3% -1.28 9 31
332 Portland State 43.2% -1.28 9 29
333 Bowling Green 43.1% -1.31 8 32
334 NJIT 43.0% -1.33 8 27
335 Jacksonville State 42.9% -1.35 8 29
336 SIU Edwardsville 42.5% -1.42 7 30
337 IU Indianapolis 42.4% -1.43 7 29
338 North Dakota State 42.4% -1.44 7 29
339 UNC Wilmington 42.0% -1.50 7 28
340 Georgia Southern 41.8% -1.54 6 33
341 Cal State Bakersfield 41.6% -1.58 6 30
342 Houston Christian 41.4% -1.61 6 27
343 Jacksonville 41.3% -1.63 6 30
344 Hartford 41.2% -1.65 5 1
345 Charleston Southern 41.1% -1.66 5 27
346 Radford 41.1% -1.67 5 31
347 Georgia State 41.1% -1.67 4 29
348 Eastern Michigan 40.9% -1.70 4 29
349 Coppin State 40.8% -1.72 4 28
350 Grambling 40.6% -1.75 4 33
351 High Point 40.6% -1.76 3 34
352 Oral Roberts 40.6% -1.76 3 28
353 North Alabama 40.6% -1.76 3 30
354 Western Carolina 40.4% -1.78 2 29
355 South Alabama 40.3% -1.80 2 29
356 Vanderbilt 40.1% -1.84 2 32
357 Austin Peay 39.8% -1.89 2 32
358 Omaha 39.8% -1.90 1 29
359 Northern Illinois 39.7% -1.91 1 29
360 Old Dominion 38.8% -2.06 1 31
361 VMI 38.0% -2.21 1 29
362 Cal State Fullerton 36.8% -2.42 0 30
363 Lindenwood 35.0% -2.74 0 28