Don't you understand that's not my problem? "Positively 4th Street" - Bob Dylan

Game Outcomes

Each point is a completed game — x: home team's season-to-date value entering the game, y: away team's. home win home loss

Predicts home win: AUC 0.59 (team entering with the better value wins 57% of games)

Based on 5499 of 5721 completed games where both teams entered with a season-to-date value.

Team Distribution

Season-to-date value for every team, with a density curve.

min 5.6% max 16.5% mean 9.2% std 1.7% (n=363)

Team Rankings

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# Team Steal Rate z Pctl GP
1 Merrimack 16.5% +4.33 100 32
2 Missouri 14.4% +3.08 100 35
3 Maryland Eastern Shore 14.4% +3.03 99 27
4 Northern Kentucky 14.1% +2.87 99 33
5 Maine 13.6% +2.57 99 28
6 Cornell 13.4% +2.47 99 26
7 Iowa State 13.2% +2.38 98 33
8 Rutgers 13.2% +2.33 98 34
9 Mississippi State 13.1% +2.29 98 34
10 Marquette 13.0% +2.23 98 36
11 VCU 13.0% +2.21 97 35
12 Nicholls 12.9% +2.20 97 27
13 Florida International 12.7% +2.07 97 30
14 UNLV 12.7% +2.02 96 31
15 UCLA 12.5% +1.93 96 37
16 Kansas 12.4% +1.89 96 36
17 Tennessee 12.4% +1.89 96 36
18 Monmouth 12.3% +1.83 95 33
19 Kent State 12.2% +1.78 95 33
20 Houston 12.2% +1.77 95 37
21 Seton Hall 12.1% +1.67 94 32
22 Marshall 12.0% +1.66 94 31
23 Northwestern 12.0% +1.62 94 34
24 Tarleton State 12.0% +1.61 94 30
25 Arkansas 11.9% +1.57 93 36
26 UTEP 11.9% +1.55 93 30
27 Memphis 11.8% +1.50 93 35
28 Incarnate Word 11.8% +1.49 93 28
29 Morgan State 11.7% +1.48 92 27
30 Northwestern State 11.7% +1.48 92 32
31 American University 11.7% +1.46 92 32
32 Troy 11.7% +1.43 91 30
33 Duquesne 11.7% +1.43 91 33
34 Alcorn State 11.6% +1.43 91 32
35 Southern Miss 11.6% +1.41 91 30
36 Stephen F. Austin 11.6% +1.39 90 29
37 Sam Houston 11.4% +1.29 90 30
38 Samford 11.4% +1.28 90 28
39 Eastern Illinois 11.4% +1.28 90 29
40 UCF 11.3% +1.25 89 34
41 Southern 11.3% +1.24 89 30
42 Abilene Christian 11.3% +1.24 89 26
43 Auburn 11.3% +1.20 88 34
44 TCU 11.3% +1.20 88 35
45 James Madison 11.3% +1.19 88 30
46 Tulane 11.2% +1.18 88 31
47 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 11.2% +1.17 87 31
48 Kansas State 11.2% +1.16 87 36
49 NC State 11.1% +1.12 87 34
50 Texas 11.1% +1.11 86 38
51 Middle Tennessee 11.1% +1.09 86 31
52 St. John's 11.0% +1.05 86 33
53 UAB 11.0% +1.04 86 38
54 Manhattan 11.0% +1.04 85 29
55 Mississippi Valley State 11.0% +1.03 85 32
56 Syracuse 11.0% +1.01 85 32
57 Louisiana Tech 10.9% +0.99 85 30
58 North Texas 10.9% +0.97 84 36
59 Virginia 10.9% +0.96 84 33
60 Sacred Heart 10.8% +0.94 84 32
61 Loyola Maryland 10.8% +0.93 83 31
62 Alabama A&M 10.8% +0.90 83 30
63 Iona 10.8% +0.90 83 35
64 Harvard 10.7% +0.88 83 26
65 Jackson State 10.7% +0.86 82 33
66 Louisiana 10.7% +0.86 82 31
67 Southern Illinois 10.7% +0.86 82 32
68 Colorado 10.7% +0.86 81 35
69 Ole Miss 10.6% +0.83 81 33
70 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 10.6% +0.81 81 27
71 Fairleigh Dickinson 10.6% +0.81 81 35
72 Radford 10.6% +0.80 80 34
73 Saint Mary's 10.6% +0.78 80 34
74 Miami 10.5% +0.76 80 37
75 South Carolina Upstate 10.5% +0.76 80 30
76 Texas Tech 10.5% +0.75 79 32
77 Navy 10.4% +0.69 79 30
78 St. Bonaventure 10.4% +0.69 79 32
79 UNC Greensboro 10.4% +0.69 78 30
80 St. Francis Brooklyn 10.4% +0.69 78 28
81 Grambling 10.4% +0.68 78 31
82 Charleston 10.4% +0.68 78 34
83 Prairie View A&M 10.4% +0.68 77 30
84 Coppin State 10.4% +0.67 77 32
85 Kennesaw State 10.4% +0.66 77 32
86 Colgate 10.3% +0.64 77 34
87 McNeese 10.3% +0.63 76 33
88 North Carolina Central 10.3% +0.62 76 26
89 Wagner 10.3% +0.61 76 26
90 Brown 10.2% +0.59 75 27
91 Fordham 10.2% +0.59 75 33
92 Gardner-Webb 10.2% +0.56 75 29
93 Oakland 10.2% +0.55 75 31
94 LSU 10.2% +0.54 74 33
95 Arizona State 10.2% +0.54 74 36
96 San Diego State 10.1% +0.53 74 38
97 Stonehill 10.1% +0.53 73 30
98 Bradley 10.1% +0.53 73 34
99 UNC Wilmington 10.1% +0.53 73 32
100 Delaware 10.1% +0.52 73 32
101 Buffalo 10.1% +0.52 72 30
102 Cleveland State 10.1% +0.51 72 33
103 USC 10.1% +0.50 72 33
104 BYU 10.1% +0.49 72 32
105 Butler 10.1% +0.49 71 32
106 Evansville 10.0% +0.48 71 32
107 Norfolk State 10.0% +0.47 71 29
108 Purdue Fort Wayne 10.0% +0.45 70 30
109 Bethune-Cookman 10.0% +0.44 70 30
110 Austin Peay 10.0% +0.44 70 28
111 Texas A&M 10.0% +0.43 70 35
112 Eastern Kentucky 10.0% +0.43 69 34
113 Florida Gulf Coast 9.9% +0.41 69 31
114 Saint Peter's 9.9% +0.39 69 31
115 Belmont 9.9% +0.39 69 31
116 Providence 9.9% +0.38 68 33
117 Illinois 9.9% +0.38 68 33
118 SMU 9.9% +0.37 68 32
119 Old Dominion 9.9% +0.37 67 30
120 UC Davis 9.9% +0.37 67 30
121 SE Louisiana 9.8% +0.36 67 29
122 Washington 9.8% +0.35 67 32
123 Howard 9.8% +0.34 66 32
124 Fresno State 9.8% +0.34 66 30
125 Robert Morris 9.8% +0.32 66 31
126 Missouri State 9.8% +0.31 65 31
127 Florida 9.7% +0.30 65 33
128 La Salle 9.7% +0.29 65 34
129 UC Santa Barbara 9.7% +0.29 65 33
130 UMass Lowell 9.7% +0.28 64 32
131 South Carolina State 9.7% +0.26 64 30
132 Baylor 9.7% +0.26 64 34
133 Cal State Bakersfield 9.7% +0.26 64 31
134 Youngstown State 9.7% +0.26 63 32
135 Massachusetts 9.6% +0.24 63 31
136 Toledo 9.6% +0.23 63 34
137 Longwood 9.6% +0.22 62 30
138 North Carolina A&T 9.6% +0.22 62 29
139 Gonzaga 9.6% +0.21 62 36
140 Texas State 9.6% +0.21 62 32
141 Cal State Northridge 9.6% +0.19 61 30
142 West Virginia 9.6% +0.19 61 34
143 Kentucky 9.6% +0.19 61 34
144 Ohio 9.6% +0.18 60 32
145 Georgia Southern 9.5% +0.18 60 30
146 Montana State 9.5% +0.16 60 33
147 UT Martin 9.5% +0.14 60 29
148 SIU Edwardsville 9.5% +0.14 59 30
149 East Carolina 9.5% +0.13 59 33
150 Boston College 9.4% +0.12 59 33
151 New Mexico State 9.4% +0.10 59 21
152 Oral Roberts 9.4% +0.10 58 31
153 Delaware State 9.4% +0.09 58 28
154 Boston University 9.4% +0.09 58 30
155 Arkansas State 9.4% +0.08 57 30
156 Florida A&M 9.4% +0.08 57 27
157 Saint Joseph's 9.4% +0.08 57 33
158 UL Monroe 9.4% +0.07 57 29
159 Towson 9.4% +0.07 56 33
160 Liberty 9.3% +0.06 56 33
161 UC Irvine 9.3% +0.05 56 33
162 Cal State Fullerton 9.3% +0.05 56 31
163 Long Beach State 9.3% +0.04 55 31
164 Rhode Island 9.3% +0.04 55 31
165 San Francisco 9.3% +0.04 55 33
166 Little Rock 9.3% +0.03 54 29
167 Iowa 9.3% +0.03 54 33
168 New Mexico 9.3% +0.02 54 33
169 Southeast Missouri State 9.2% -0.00 54 33
170 South Florida 9.2% -0.01 53 32
171 Georgia 9.2% -0.01 53 32
172 UConn 9.2% -0.02 53 39
173 Wichita State 9.2% -0.03 52 32
174 Wisconsin 9.2% -0.03 52 35
175 Southern Indiana 9.1% -0.06 52 30
176 Northern Iowa 9.1% -0.07 52 31
177 Campbell 9.1% -0.07 51 32
178 Elon 9.1% -0.08 51 30
179 New Orleans 9.0% -0.12 51 30
180 Yale 9.0% -0.12 51 28
181 DePaul 9.0% -0.13 50 33
182 Detroit Mercy 9.0% -0.14 50 32
183 Texas Southern 9.0% -0.15 50 33
184 Florida Atlantic 9.0% -0.15 49 37
185 Weber State 9.0% -0.15 49 31
186 Hartford 9.0% -0.15 49 25
187 Hofstra 9.0% -0.16 49 34
188 Marist 9.0% -0.16 48 33
189 UIC 9.0% -0.16 48 31
190 Florida State 8.9% -0.17 48 32
191 Portland State 8.9% -0.18 48 29
192 East Tennessee State 8.9% -0.18 47 30
193 St. Thomas-Minnesota 8.9% -0.19 47 31
194 Air Force 8.9% -0.19 47 32
195 Lafayette 8.9% -0.20 46 34
196 Lamar 8.9% -0.20 46 28
197 UT Arlington 8.9% -0.20 46 29
198 Furman 8.9% -0.20 46 33
199 William & Mary 8.9% -0.21 45 31
200 Indiana State 8.9% -0.21 45 35
201 Northern Illinois 8.9% -0.21 45 30
202 Holy Cross 8.9% -0.23 44 30
203 Xavier 8.8% -0.25 44 37
204 Utah Tech 8.8% -0.25 44 30
205 Nevada 8.8% -0.26 44 32
206 Charlotte 8.8% -0.27 43 36
207 Columbia 8.8% -0.27 43 27
208 San Diego 8.8% -0.27 43 29
209 Georgetown 8.8% -0.27 43 32
210 Western Kentucky 8.8% -0.28 42 31
211 UNC Asheville 8.7% -0.29 42 33
212 Cincinnati 8.7% -0.30 42 35
213 Villanova 8.7% -0.30 41 34
214 Central Arkansas 8.7% -0.31 41 30
215 Milwaukee 8.7% -0.33 41 31
216 Kansas City 8.7% -0.34 41 30
217 Bowling Green 8.7% -0.34 40 29
218 South Alabama 8.7% -0.34 40 33
219 Quinnipiac 8.7% -0.34 40 31
220 Eastern Michigan 8.7% -0.34 40 30
221 Stanford 8.6% -0.37 39 33
222 Duke 8.6% -0.37 39 36
223 Georgia Tech 8.6% -0.37 39 31
224 Akron 8.6% -0.40 38 31
225 Illinois State 8.6% -0.40 38 32
226 Oklahoma 8.6% -0.40 38 32
227 IU Indianapolis 8.5% -0.42 38 30
228 Wake Forest 8.5% -0.43 37 33
229 Long Island University 8.5% -0.43 37 27
230 Richmond 8.5% -0.44 37 33
231 Indiana 8.5% -0.44 36 35
232 Central Connecticut 8.5% -0.46 36 32
233 Wofford 8.5% -0.46 36 30
234 Alabama State 8.5% -0.47 36 30
235 Queens University 8.5% -0.47 35 30
236 Maryland 8.4% -0.47 35 35
237 Siena 8.4% -0.47 35 32
238 High Point 8.4% -0.48 35 29
239 Niagara 8.4% -0.48 34 30
240 Chattanooga 8.4% -0.49 34 32
241 Lehigh 8.4% -0.49 34 28
242 Idaho State 8.4% -0.50 33 30
243 Georgia State 8.4% -0.50 33 28
244 App State 8.4% -0.52 33 29
245 Lindenwood 8.4% -0.52 33 29
246 Vermont 8.4% -0.53 32 33
247 Loyola Chicago 8.4% -0.53 32 31
248 Oregon 8.3% -0.54 32 36
249 Arizona 8.3% -0.54 31 35
250 Central Michigan 8.3% -0.54 31 29
251 Tennessee State 8.3% -0.54 31 28
252 Drexel 8.3% -0.55 31 31
253 Utah Valley 8.3% -0.55 30 34
254 Valparaiso 8.3% -0.56 30 31
255 The Citadel 8.3% -0.57 30 31
256 Southern Utah 8.3% -0.58 30 33
257 Oklahoma State 8.2% -0.59 29 36
258 Fairfield 8.2% -0.59 29 30
259 Santa Clara 8.2% -0.60 29 32
260 Oregon State 8.2% -0.60 28 31
261 Alabama 8.2% -0.63 28 37
262 Mount St. Mary's 8.2% -0.64 28 32
263 East Texas A&M 8.2% -0.64 28 32
264 Wright State 8.2% -0.65 27 31
265 UMBC 8.2% -0.65 27 31
266 Presbyterian 8.1% -0.65 27 30
267 UAlbany 8.1% -0.66 27 29
268 Seattle U 8.1% -0.67 26 30
269 Bucknell 8.1% -0.67 26 31
270 Bellarmine 8.1% -0.67 26 30
271 Colorado State 8.1% -0.68 25 32
272 Bryant 8.1% -0.69 25 28
273 UC San Diego 8.1% -0.70 25 28
274 Nebraska 8.0% -0.71 25 32
275 Mercer 8.0% -0.72 24 31
276 Tennessee Tech 8.0% -0.72 24 30
277 George Washington 8.0% -0.73 24 31
278 Western Illinois 8.0% -0.74 23 27
279 NJIT 8.0% -0.76 23 29
280 Cal Poly 7.9% -0.77 23 31
281 Jacksonville 7.9% -0.79 23 26
282 Chicago State 7.9% -0.79 22 27
283 Davidson 7.9% -0.80 22 31
284 Tulsa 7.9% -0.80 22 30
285 Rider 7.9% -0.82 22 29
286 New Hampshire 7.9% -0.82 21 28
287 Pennsylvania 7.9% -0.82 21 29
288 Canisius 7.8% -0.83 21 29
289 Ohio State 7.8% -0.88 20 35
290 Morehead State 7.8% -0.88 20 30
291 Virginia Tech 7.7% -0.89 20 34
292 Ball State 7.7% -0.89 20 30
293 Loyola Marymount 7.7% -0.90 19 30
294 South Dakota State 7.7% -0.91 19 31
295 North Alabama 7.7% -0.91 19 30
296 Drake 7.7% -0.91 19 34
297 Rice 7.7% -0.91 18 32
298 Coastal Carolina 7.7% -0.93 18 28
299 Western Carolina 7.7% -0.93 18 31
300 Murray State 7.6% -0.94 17 31
301 Denver 7.6% -0.95 17 30
302 Green Bay 7.6% -0.96 17 32
303 North Carolina 7.6% -0.97 17 33
304 Miami (OH) 7.6% -0.98 16 29
305 Utah 7.5% -1.01 16 32
306 Pacific 7.5% -1.01 16 31
307 Pittsburgh 7.5% -1.02 15 36
308 Washington State 7.5% -1.02 15 34
309 Omaha 7.5% -1.02 15 31
310 Charleston Southern 7.5% -1.03 15 29
311 Clemson 7.5% -1.04 14 34
312 Vanderbilt 7.5% -1.04 14 37
313 Dayton 7.5% -1.04 14 34
314 Northern Arizona 7.5% -1.05 14 33
315 VMI 7.5% -1.05 13 29
316 Houston Christian 7.5% -1.06 13 29
317 South Carolina 7.4% -1.07 13 32
318 Boise State 7.4% -1.07 12 33
319 Jacksonville State 7.4% -1.09 12 28
320 Northeastern 7.3% -1.13 12 30
321 California 7.3% -1.13 12 32
322 Army 7.3% -1.13 11 31
323 Montana 7.3% -1.14 11 30
324 Pepperdine 7.3% -1.14 11 29
325 Purdue 7.3% -1.15 10 35
326 Lipscomb 7.3% -1.16 10 30
327 UC Riverside 7.3% -1.17 10 33
328 Temple 7.3% -1.17 10 32
329 Eastern Washington 7.3% -1.17 9 33
330 Saint Louis 7.2% -1.23 9 32
331 Creighton 7.2% -1.23 9 37
332 Notre Dame 7.1% -1.24 9 32
333 Winthrop 7.1% -1.26 8 30
334 Utah State 7.1% -1.27 8 34
335 Michigan State 7.1% -1.28 8 34
336 Wyoming 7.1% -1.30 7 30
337 Dartmouth 7.0% -1.32 7 26
338 Minnesota 7.0% -1.32 7 31
339 Stetson 7.0% -1.33 7 29
340 Hawai'i 6.9% -1.36 6 32
341 Grand Canyon 6.9% -1.37 6 33
342 Portland 6.8% -1.44 6 31
343 Western Michigan 6.8% -1.45 6 28
344 Louisville 6.8% -1.46 5 32
345 Sacramento State 6.8% -1.47 5 30
346 Michigan 6.7% -1.48 5 34
347 North Florida 6.7% -1.48 4 29
348 George Mason 6.7% -1.49 4 33
349 Idaho 6.7% -1.49 4 30
350 Princeton 6.7% -1.52 4 30
351 Penn State 6.7% -1.53 3 37
352 South Dakota 6.6% -1.57 3 29
353 Northern Colorado 6.6% -1.59 3 31
354 California Baptist 6.6% -1.59 2 31
355 San José State 6.5% -1.65 2 34
356 Binghamton 6.4% -1.70 2 29
357 Stony Brook 6.3% -1.74 2 31
358 North Dakota 6.2% -1.81 1 31
359 Hampton 6.1% -1.85 1 31
360 Saint Francis 6.1% -1.86 1 29
361 UT Rio Grande Valley 6.0% -1.91 1 28
362 UTSA 5.9% -1.96 0 30
363 North Dakota State 5.6% -2.14 0 31