Free Nelson Mandela! "Nelson Mandela" - The Specials

Does it predict winners?

Predicts home win: AUC 0.65 (team entering with the better value wins 61% of games)

See the game-by-game scatter on the Predictor page →

Team Distribution

Season-to-date value for every team, with a density curve.

min 58.2 max 85.2 mean 70.6 std 5.0 (n=363)

Team Rankings

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# Team Points Per Game z Pctl GP
1 Gonzaga 85.2 +2.94 100 36
2 Toledo 84.9 +2.88 100 34
3 Arizona 81.9 +2.27 99 35
4 Alabama 81.8 +2.26 99 37
5 Oral Roberts 81.5 +2.19 99 31
6 Marshall 81.2 +2.14 99 31
7 Xavier 80.9 +2.09 98 37
8 Cornell 80.4 +1.97 98 26
9 Youngstown State 80.4 +1.97 98 32
10 New Mexico 80.2 +1.94 98 33
11 Iowa 80.1 +1.91 97 33
12 UAB 80.0 +1.89 97 38
13 Tulane 79.9 +1.88 97 31
14 Charleston 79.6 +1.82 96 34
15 Memphis 79.4 +1.77 96 35
16 Marquette 79.3 +1.76 96 36
17 Furman 79.2 +1.72 96 33
18 Southern Utah 79.1 +1.71 95 33
19 Miami 79.1 +1.70 95 37
20 Missouri 78.9 +1.68 95 35
21 Indiana State 78.6 +1.61 94 35
22 UConn 78.6 +1.61 94 39
23 Wright State 78.3 +1.55 94 31
24 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 78.1 +1.51 94 31
25 Texas 78.0 +1.49 93 38
26 Ohio 77.8 +1.45 93 32
27 NC State 77.7 +1.44 93 34
28 Colgate 77.6 +1.42 93 34
29 James Madison 77.6 +1.42 92 30
30 Utah State 77.4 +1.36 92 34
31 Providence 77.3 +1.36 92 33
32 St. John's 77.3 +1.36 91 33
33 Santa Clara 77.3 +1.35 91 32
34 Florida Atlantic 77.2 +1.33 91 37
35 Samford 77.1 +1.31 91 28
36 Baylor 77.0 +1.30 90 34
37 Southeast Missouri State 77.0 +1.30 90 34
38 Pepperdine 76.9 +1.28 90 29
39 Portland 76.7 +1.23 90 31
40 Wake Forest 76.6 +1.21 89 33
41 Cincinnati 76.5 +1.19 89 35
42 Creighton 76.4 +1.18 89 37
43 UT Martin 76.4 +1.17 88 29
44 Bryant 76.3 +1.15 88 28
45 San Diego 76.3 +1.15 88 29
46 Belmont 76.3 +1.14 88 31
47 UMass Lowell 76.3 +1.14 87 32
48 Utah Valley 76.2 +1.14 87 34
49 North Carolina 76.2 +1.13 87 33
50 Kansas State 76.2 +1.12 86 36
51 Detroit Mercy 76.1 +1.10 86 32
52 George Washington 76.0 +1.09 86 31
53 Iona 76.0 +1.09 86 35
54 West Virginia 76.0 +1.08 85 34
55 Fairleigh Dickinson 75.9 +1.08 85 35
56 Milwaukee 75.9 +1.07 85 31
57 San Francisco 75.8 +1.06 85 33
58 Pacific 75.8 +1.04 84 31
59 Queens University 75.6 +1.02 84 30
60 Long Beach State 75.6 +1.01 84 31
61 SE Louisiana 75.5 +0.99 83 29
62 Tennessee State 75.5 +0.99 83 28
63 Kansas 75.4 +0.97 83 36
64 Buffalo 75.4 +0.96 83 30
65 Little Rock 75.3 +0.94 82 29
66 TCU 75.3 +0.94 82 35
67 UT Rio Grande Valley 75.3 +0.94 82 28
68 Kent State 75.2 +0.94 81 33
69 Rice 75.2 +0.93 81 32
70 Chattanooga 75.1 +0.91 81 32
71 Pittsburgh 75.1 +0.91 81 36
72 Eastern Washington 75.1 +0.90 80 33
73 Southern Indiana 75.0 +0.90 80 30
74 Ball State 75.0 +0.89 80 30
75 Stetson 74.9 +0.87 80 29
76 Duquesne 74.9 +0.87 79 33
77 Saint Louis 74.9 +0.87 79 32
78 Louisiana 74.9 +0.87 79 31
79 Houston 74.9 +0.86 78 37
80 Houston Christian 74.8 +0.85 78 29
81 North Florida 74.8 +0.84 78 29
82 Indiana 74.7 +0.84 78 35
83 Clemson 74.7 +0.83 77 34
84 Lipscomb 74.7 +0.83 77 30
85 Loyola Marymount 74.5 +0.79 77 30
86 Princeton 74.5 +0.79 77 30
87 Northwestern State 74.5 +0.79 76 32
88 Bowling Green 74.5 +0.78 76 29
89 Kentucky 74.5 +0.78 76 34
90 Pennsylvania 74.3 +0.76 75 29
91 Illinois 74.3 +0.75 75 33
92 Hofstra 74.2 +0.73 75 34
93 Akron 74.2 +0.72 75 31
94 Virginia Tech 74.1 +0.72 74 34
95 UCLA 74.1 +0.71 74 37
96 Syracuse 74.1 +0.71 74 32
97 BYU 74.1 +0.71 73 32
98 Stephen F. Austin 74.1 +0.70 73 29
99 Arkansas 74.1 +0.70 73 36
100 Utah Tech 73.9 +0.66 73 30
101 Eastern Kentucky 73.8 +0.65 72 34
102 Yale 73.8 +0.64 72 28
103 Northern Colorado 73.7 +0.64 72 31
104 UMBC 73.7 +0.64 72 31
105 Portland State 73.7 +0.62 71 29
106 Kennesaw State 73.5 +0.59 71 32
107 Howard 73.4 +0.57 71 32
108 Norfolk State 73.4 +0.57 70 29
109 Michigan 73.4 +0.56 70 34
110 Texas Tech 73.3 +0.55 70 32
111 Drake 73.3 +0.55 70 34
112 New Orleans 73.2 +0.53 69 30
113 SIU Edwardsville 73.2 +0.53 69 30
114 UC Davis 73.2 +0.52 69 30
115 UC Irvine 72.9 +0.46 69 33
116 Texas A&M 72.8 +0.45 68 35
117 Winthrop 72.8 +0.44 68 30
118 Auburn 72.8 +0.44 68 34
119 Oakland 72.7 +0.43 67 31
120 Purdue 72.7 +0.42 67 35
121 Liberty 72.6 +0.41 67 33
122 UNLV 72.6 +0.40 67 31
123 Quinnipiac 72.5 +0.39 66 31
124 Northern Arizona 72.5 +0.39 66 33
125 High Point 72.5 +0.39 66 29
126 Ohio State 72.5 +0.39 65 35
127 Florida International 72.5 +0.39 65 30
128 Nicholls 72.5 +0.38 65 27
129 USC 72.5 +0.38 65 33
130 St. Thomas-Minnesota 72.4 +0.37 64 31
131 Southern Miss 72.4 +0.36 64 30
132 Saint Joseph's 72.4 +0.36 64 33
133 UNC Asheville 72.4 +0.36 64 33
134 Wofford 72.3 +0.34 63 30
135 Penn State 72.2 +0.33 63 37
136 Grand Canyon 72.2 +0.33 63 33
137 Miami (OH) 72.2 +0.33 62 29
138 Eastern Michigan 72.1 +0.31 62 30
139 South Carolina State 72.1 +0.30 62 30
140 Tennessee Tech 72.1 +0.30 62 30
141 Coppin State 72.0 +0.28 61 32
142 Duke 72.0 +0.28 61 36
143 Fordham 72.0 +0.28 61 33
144 South Florida 72.0 +0.28 60 32
145 Vanderbilt 71.9 +0.27 60 37
146 North Dakota State 71.9 +0.26 60 31
147 Nevada 71.8 +0.25 60 32
148 North Alabama 71.8 +0.25 59 30
149 Vermont 71.8 +0.25 59 33
150 Central Arkansas 71.8 +0.24 59 30
151 Towson 71.8 +0.24 59 33
152 Cleveland State 71.7 +0.22 58 33
153 Denver 71.7 +0.22 58 30
154 Purdue Fort Wayne 71.6 +0.20 58 30
155 Boise State 71.5 +0.19 57 33
156 UCF 71.5 +0.19 57 34
157 UC Riverside 71.4 +0.17 57 33
158 Army 71.4 +0.17 57 31
159 UC Santa Barbara 71.3 +0.15 56 33
160 Florida 71.2 +0.13 56 33
161 New Mexico State 71.2 +0.13 56 21
162 Abilene Christian 71.2 +0.12 56 26
163 DePaul 71.2 +0.12 55 33
164 Colorado State 71.1 +0.11 55 32
165 Arizona State 71.1 +0.10 55 36
166 North Carolina Central 71.1 +0.10 54 26
167 Wichita State 71.0 +0.08 54 32
168 Longwood 71.0 +0.08 54 30
169 Northern Illinois 70.9 +0.07 54 30
170 Western Illinois 70.9 +0.07 53 27
171 Michigan State 70.9 +0.07 53 34
172 Saint Francis 70.9 +0.06 53 29
173 VCU 70.9 +0.05 52 35
174 Montana State 70.8 +0.05 52 33
175 Tennessee 70.8 +0.03 52 36
176 East Texas A&M 70.7 +0.01 52 32
177 North Dakota 70.6 +0.01 51 31
178 Oregon 70.6 +0.00 51 36
179 San Diego State 70.5 -0.01 51 38
180 South Dakota State 70.5 -0.02 51 31
181 Western Carolina 70.5 -0.02 50 31
182 Troy 70.4 -0.03 50 30
183 Charleston Southern 70.4 -0.03 50 29
184 Stanford 70.3 -0.05 49 33
185 Seattle U 70.3 -0.06 49 30
186 Saint Mary's 70.3 -0.06 49 34
187 SMU 70.3 -0.07 49 32
188 Louisiana Tech 70.2 -0.08 48 30
189 Florida Gulf Coast 70.2 -0.09 48 31
190 Coastal Carolina 70.1 -0.09 48 28
191 Bradley 70.0 -0.12 48 34
192 Colorado 69.9 -0.15 47 35
193 Morgan State 69.9 -0.15 47 27
194 Middle Tennessee 69.8 -0.15 47 31
195 La Salle 69.8 -0.15 46 34
196 South Alabama 69.8 -0.15 46 33
197 Murray State 69.8 -0.16 46 31
198 Massachusetts 69.8 -0.16 46 31
199 UNC Greensboro 69.8 -0.17 45 30
200 Sacred Heart 69.8 -0.17 45 32
201 Maryland 69.7 -0.18 45 35
202 Western Kentucky 69.7 -0.18 44 31
203 Southern 69.7 -0.19 44 30
204 Idaho 69.6 -0.20 44 30
205 Notre Dame 69.6 -0.20 44 32
206 Temple 69.6 -0.20 43 32
207 Villanova 69.6 -0.20 43 34
208 Rider 69.6 -0.20 43 29
209 Brown 69.6 -0.21 43 27
210 Georgetown 69.5 -0.21 42 32
211 Montana 69.5 -0.23 42 30
212 Canisius 69.4 -0.24 42 29
213 Delaware 69.4 -0.24 41 32
214 Florida State 69.3 -0.25 41 32
215 Davidson 69.3 -0.25 41 31
216 UTSA 69.2 -0.27 41 30
217 Washington 69.2 -0.29 40 32
218 Northern Iowa 69.0 -0.32 40 31
219 Dartmouth 68.9 -0.34 40 26
220 Richmond 68.9 -0.34 40 33
221 East Carolina 68.8 -0.36 39 33
222 George Mason 68.7 -0.37 39 33
223 Campbell 68.7 -0.38 39 32
224 Georgia Tech 68.7 -0.38 38 31
225 Utah 68.7 -0.39 38 32
226 Dayton 68.6 -0.39 38 34
227 Navy 68.6 -0.39 38 30
228 Siena 68.6 -0.40 37 32
229 Georgia 68.5 -0.41 37 32
230 Idaho State 68.5 -0.42 37 30
231 Rutgers 68.4 -0.44 36 34
232 Washington State 68.4 -0.45 36 34
233 Cal State Fullerton 68.3 -0.46 36 31
234 Incarnate Word 68.3 -0.46 36 28
235 Western Michigan 68.3 -0.46 35 28
236 Oklahoma State 68.3 -0.46 35 36
237 Radford 68.2 -0.47 35 34
238 North Carolina A&T 68.2 -0.49 35 29
239 Harvard 68.1 -0.51 34 26
240 Wyoming 68.1 -0.51 34 30
241 Valparaiso 68.1 -0.51 34 31
242 Nebraska 68.0 -0.53 33 32
243 Alabama A&M 68.0 -0.53 33 30
244 East Tennessee State 68.0 -0.53 33 30
245 Lehigh 68.0 -0.53 33 28
246 McNeese 67.9 -0.53 32 33
247 Seton Hall 67.9 -0.53 32 32
248 South Dakota 67.9 -0.53 32 29
249 Virginia 67.8 -0.56 31 33
250 Northwestern 67.7 -0.57 31 34
251 Sam Houston 67.7 -0.57 31 30
252 Texas Southern 67.7 -0.58 31 33
253 Alcorn State 67.7 -0.59 30 32
254 Oklahoma 67.7 -0.59 30 32
255 Jackson State 67.6 -0.59 30 33
256 Tarleton State 67.6 -0.59 30 30
257 Lindenwood 67.6 -0.60 29 29
258 Iowa State 67.6 -0.60 29 33
259 LSU 67.6 -0.60 29 33
260 Binghamton 67.6 -0.60 28 29
261 Hampton 67.5 -0.61 28 31
262 Grambling 67.5 -0.62 28 31
263 Ole Miss 67.5 -0.62 28 33
264 Robert Morris 67.5 -0.62 27 31
265 Gardner-Webb 67.4 -0.63 27 29
266 Loyola Chicago 67.4 -0.64 27 31
267 Omaha 67.4 -0.65 27 31
268 UC San Diego 67.3 -0.66 26 28
269 Bethune-Cookman 67.3 -0.67 26 30
270 South Carolina Upstate 67.2 -0.69 26 30
271 Jacksonville State 67.1 -0.69 25 28
272 Georgia Southern 67.1 -0.71 25 30
273 UNC Wilmington 67.0 -0.72 25 32
274 Charlotte 66.9 -0.73 25 36
275 Air Force 66.9 -0.73 24 32
276 UTEP 66.9 -0.75 24 30
277 Eastern Illinois 66.9 -0.75 24 29
278 San José State 66.8 -0.76 23 34
279 California Baptist 66.8 -0.76 23 31
280 St. Bonaventure 66.8 -0.77 23 32
281 Northern Kentucky 66.7 -0.78 23 33
282 Maryland Eastern Shore 66.7 -0.78 22 27
283 Old Dominion 66.7 -0.78 22 30
284 UIC 66.7 -0.79 22 31
285 Boston College 66.6 -0.81 22 33
286 Manhattan 66.6 -0.81 21 29
287 Hawai'i 66.5 -0.82 21 32
288 NJIT 66.5 -0.82 21 29
289 Chicago State 66.5 -0.83 20 27
290 Illinois State 66.5 -0.83 20 32
291 Maine 66.5 -0.83 20 28
292 UAlbany 66.4 -0.85 20 29
293 Weber State 66.3 -0.87 19 31
294 Morehead State 66.2 -0.88 19 30
295 Boston University 66.2 -0.89 19 31
296 Lamar 66.1 -0.89 19 28
297 Sacramento State 66.1 -0.90 18 30
298 Stonehill 66.1 -0.90 18 30
299 Drexel 66.1 -0.90 18 31
300 Mercer 66.1 -0.90 17 31
301 The Citadel 66.1 -0.90 17 31
302 Bucknell 66.1 -0.91 17 31
303 Rhode Island 66.0 -0.92 17 31
304 Central Connecticut 66.0 -0.93 16 32
305 Prairie View A&M 66.0 -0.93 16 30
306 Loyola Maryland 65.9 -0.95 16 31
307 VMI 65.7 -0.98 15 29
308 Mississippi State 65.7 -0.98 15 34
309 App State 65.6 -1.00 15 29
310 American University 65.4 -1.04 15 32
311 Columbia 65.3 -1.06 14 27
312 Northeastern 65.3 -1.06 14 30
313 Tulsa 65.3 -1.06 14 30
314 Wisconsin 65.3 -1.07 14 35
315 Butler 65.3 -1.07 13 32
316 Holy Cross 65.2 -1.08 13 30
317 Texas State 65.2 -1.09 13 32
318 IU Indianapolis 65.2 -1.09 12 30
319 Georgia State 65.1 -1.11 12 28
320 Missouri State 65.0 -1.12 12 31
321 Southern Illinois 65.0 -1.12 12 32
322 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 65.0 -1.13 11 27
323 William & Mary 64.9 -1.14 11 31
324 Central Michigan 64.7 -1.19 11 29
325 New Hampshire 64.6 -1.20 10 28
326 North Texas 64.5 -1.22 10 36
327 South Carolina 64.3 -1.26 10 32
328 Fairfield 64.2 -1.29 10 30
329 Niagara 64.2 -1.29 9 30
330 Long Island University 64.0 -1.32 9 27
331 Marist 63.9 -1.34 9 33
332 Louisville 63.9 -1.34 9 32
333 Mount St. Mary's 63.8 -1.37 8 32
334 Elon 63.8 -1.37 8 30
335 Arkansas State 63.7 -1.39 8 30
336 Austin Peay 63.6 -1.41 7 28
337 Bellarmine 63.5 -1.43 7 30
338 Fresno State 63.5 -1.43 7 30
339 UL Monroe 63.4 -1.44 7 29
340 Delaware State 63.1 -1.51 6 28
341 Kansas City 63.0 -1.52 6 30
342 St. Francis Brooklyn 63.0 -1.53 6 28
343 Minnesota 62.9 -1.55 6 31
344 UT Arlington 62.9 -1.56 5 29
345 Alabama State 62.4 -1.64 5 30
346 Evansville 62.4 -1.65 5 32
347 Lafayette 62.4 -1.66 4 34
348 Merrimack 61.9 -1.74 4 32
349 Presbyterian 61.8 -1.76 4 30
350 Monmouth 61.7 -1.79 4 33
351 Stony Brook 61.5 -1.82 3 31
352 Wagner 61.3 -1.86 3 26
353 Cal State Northridge 61.2 -1.88 3 30
354 Jacksonville 61.0 -1.92 2 26
355 Mississippi Valley State 61.0 -1.92 2 32
356 Saint Peter's 60.9 -1.95 2 31
357 Oregon State 60.5 -2.03 2 31
358 Hartford 59.7 -2.20 1 25
359 Cal Poly 59.4 -2.26 1 31
360 Green Bay 59.3 -2.27 1 32
361 Cal State Bakersfield 59.3 -2.28 1 31
362 California 58.3 -2.47 0 32
363 Florida A&M 58.2 -2.49 0 27