Just tell me where it hurts and I'll tell you who to call. "Quinn the Eskimo" - Bob Dylan
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Opponent Turnover Rate

Share of opponent possessions a defense forces into turnovers.

Opponents' season turnovers ÷ opponents' season possessions. Possessions aren't in the box score, so they're estimated as FGA − OffReb + TO + 0.475×FTA (the standard estimator).

Higher is better  ·  league avg 18.2%  ·  as of 2023-04-04

Game Outcomes

Each point is a completed game — x: home team's season-to-date value entering the game, y: away team's. home win home loss

Predicts home win: AUC 0.58 (team entering with the better value wins 55% of games)

Based on 5499 of 5721 completed games where both teams entered with a season-to-date value.

Team Distribution

Season-to-date value for every team, with a density curve.

min 12.4% max 25.9% mean 18.2% std 2.3% (n=363)

Team Rankings

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# Team Opponent Turnover Rate z Pctl GP
1 Merrimack 25.9% +3.37 100 32
2 Iowa State 24.9% +2.90 100 33
3 Maryland Eastern Shore 24.9% +2.90 99 27
4 UNLV 24.6% +2.80 99 31
5 Tarleton State 24.1% +2.56 99 30
6 Missouri 24.0% +2.51 99 35
7 VCU 23.9% +2.47 98 35
8 Morgan State 23.7% +2.42 98 27
9 Stephen F. Austin 23.7% +2.40 98 29
10 Nicholls 23.7% +2.39 98 27
11 UCLA 23.4% +2.26 97 37
12 Northern Kentucky 23.3% +2.24 97 33
13 Abilene Christian 23.3% +2.23 97 26
14 Sam Houston 23.2% +2.19 96 30
15 Southern 23.1% +2.13 96 30
16 Florida International 22.9% +2.06 96 30
17 UTEP 22.9% +2.05 96 30
18 Marquette 22.5% +1.86 95 36
19 Kent State 22.3% +1.79 95 33
20 Texas 22.1% +1.72 95 38
21 Tennessee 22.1% +1.70 94 36
22 UCF 21.9% +1.62 94 34
23 Rutgers 21.8% +1.58 94 34
24 Middle Tennessee 21.8% +1.56 94 31
25 North Carolina Central 21.7% +1.55 93 26
26 Mississippi State 21.7% +1.54 93 34
27 Cornell 21.6% +1.50 93 26
28 TCU 21.6% +1.49 93 35
29 Alabama A&M 21.6% +1.47 92 30
30 Longwood 21.5% +1.46 92 30
31 Portland State 21.4% +1.41 92 29
32 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 21.4% +1.39 91 27
33 James Madison 21.4% +1.39 91 30
34 Prairie View A&M 21.3% +1.35 91 30
35 Louisiana Tech 21.2% +1.33 91 30
36 Northwestern 21.2% +1.32 90 34
37 Grambling 21.2% +1.32 90 31
38 Troy 21.1% +1.28 90 30
39 Houston 21.1% +1.27 90 37
40 Fairleigh Dickinson 21.1% +1.26 89 35
41 Seton Hall 21.1% +1.26 89 32
42 Northwestern State 21.0% +1.23 89 32
43 South Carolina State 21.0% +1.22 88 30
44 Alcorn State 21.0% +1.22 88 32
45 Kansas State 21.0% +1.21 88 36
46 Wagner 21.0% +1.21 88 26
47 Monmouth 20.9% +1.20 87 33
48 West Virginia 20.9% +1.18 87 34
49 Duquesne 20.8% +1.14 87 33
50 Texas A&M 20.8% +1.13 86 35
51 Memphis 20.8% +1.12 86 35
52 UC Davis 20.7% +1.11 86 30
53 Iona 20.7% +1.11 86 35
54 UNC Wilmington 20.6% +1.07 85 32
55 Incarnate Word 20.6% +1.06 85 28
56 Howard 20.6% +1.05 85 32
57 Manhattan 20.6% +1.04 85 29
58 Cal State Bakersfield 20.6% +1.03 84 31
59 South Carolina Upstate 20.5% +1.01 84 30
60 Cal State Fullerton 20.5% +0.99 84 31
61 Cleveland State 20.4% +0.98 83 33
62 Arkansas 20.4% +0.98 83 36
63 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 20.4% +0.97 83 31
64 Maine 20.3% +0.94 83 28
65 Radford 20.3% +0.93 82 34
66 Gardner-Webb 20.2% +0.88 82 29
67 Kansas 20.2% +0.88 82 36
68 New Orleans 20.2% +0.87 81 30
69 Marshall 20.2% +0.86 81 31
70 UT Arlington 20.1% +0.85 81 29
71 Arizona State 20.1% +0.84 81 36
72 Loyola Maryland 20.0% +0.81 80 31
73 Montana State 20.0% +0.79 80 33
74 North Texas 20.0% +0.78 80 36
75 Baylor 20.0% +0.78 80 34
76 Utah Tech 19.9% +0.77 79 30
77 Texas Tech 19.9% +0.75 79 32
78 Eastern Illinois 19.8% +0.72 79 29
79 Southern Miss 19.8% +0.72 78 30
80 SE Louisiana 19.8% +0.72 78 29
81 Saint Peter's 19.8% +0.71 78 31
82 Samford 19.8% +0.70 78 28
83 Brown 19.8% +0.68 77 27
84 Fresno State 19.7% +0.66 77 30
85 St. John's 19.7% +0.65 77 33
86 UMass Lowell 19.6% +0.62 77 32
87 Stonehill 19.6% +0.62 76 30
88 Southern Illinois 19.6% +0.61 76 32
89 UIC 19.6% +0.60 76 31
90 St. Francis Brooklyn 19.6% +0.60 75 28
91 Austin Peay 19.5% +0.59 75 28
92 Sacred Heart 19.5% +0.58 75 32
93 Navy 19.5% +0.57 75 30
94 Virginia 19.4% +0.55 74 33
95 St. Bonaventure 19.4% +0.54 74 32
96 Mississippi Valley State 19.4% +0.54 74 32
97 Bethune-Cookman 19.4% +0.53 73 30
98 Kennesaw State 19.4% +0.53 73 32
99 UAB 19.4% +0.52 73 38
100 Jackson State 19.3% +0.49 73 33
101 Little Rock 19.3% +0.49 72 29
102 Charleston 19.3% +0.49 72 34
103 Tulane 19.3% +0.48 72 31
104 Fordham 19.3% +0.48 72 33
105 Massachusetts 19.2% +0.46 71 31
106 Colorado 19.2% +0.46 71 35
107 Southeast Missouri State 19.2% +0.46 71 33
108 Weber State 19.2% +0.45 70 31
109 Saint Mary's 19.2% +0.44 70 34
110 American University 19.2% +0.43 70 32
111 San Diego State 19.2% +0.43 70 38
112 UNC Greensboro 19.2% +0.43 69 30
113 SIU Edwardsville 19.1% +0.41 69 30
114 Robert Morris 19.1% +0.41 69 31
115 Central Michigan 19.1% +0.41 69 29
116 Delaware State 19.1% +0.40 68 28
117 New Mexico State 19.0% +0.36 68 21
118 Saint Joseph's 19.0% +0.34 68 33
119 Norfolk State 18.9% +0.33 67 29
120 Auburn 18.9% +0.33 67 34
121 Liberty 18.9% +0.32 67 33
122 Evansville 18.9% +0.30 67 32
123 Bradley 18.8% +0.27 66 34
124 NC State 18.8% +0.27 66 34
125 Oklahoma State 18.8% +0.25 66 36
126 Syracuse 18.7% +0.24 65 32
127 SMU 18.7% +0.22 65 32
128 Oakland 18.7% +0.22 65 31
129 Canisius 18.7% +0.22 65 29
130 Texas Southern 18.7% +0.21 64 33
131 Northern Illinois 18.7% +0.21 64 30
132 South Florida 18.6% +0.20 64 32
133 UC Santa Barbara 18.6% +0.20 64 33
134 Butler 18.6% +0.20 63 32
135 Delaware 18.6% +0.19 63 32
136 Texas State 18.6% +0.18 63 32
137 BYU 18.6% +0.18 62 32
138 Cal Poly 18.6% +0.18 62 31
139 Missouri State 18.6% +0.17 62 31
140 Eastern Kentucky 18.6% +0.17 62 34
141 Coppin State 18.5% +0.16 61 32
142 McNeese 18.5% +0.15 61 33
143 Tennessee State 18.5% +0.15 61 28
144 UConn 18.5% +0.15 60 39
145 Illinois 18.5% +0.14 60 33
146 Yale 18.5% +0.13 60 28
147 Hofstra 18.5% +0.13 60 34
148 Siena 18.5% +0.12 59 32
149 Washington 18.5% +0.12 59 32
150 Maryland 18.4% +0.12 59 35
151 Campbell 18.4% +0.11 59 32
152 Presbyterian 18.4% +0.11 58 30
153 Nevada 18.4% +0.09 58 32
154 Louisiana 18.3% +0.07 58 31
155 Stanford 18.3% +0.07 57 33
156 Wisconsin 18.3% +0.07 57 35
157 Lafayette 18.3% +0.06 57 34
158 Toledo 18.3% +0.05 57 34
159 Harvard 18.3% +0.05 56 26
160 Northern Iowa 18.3% +0.05 56 31
161 Buffalo 18.3% +0.05 56 30
162 Georgia Southern 18.3% +0.05 56 30
163 Boston College 18.3% +0.03 55 33
164 Long Beach State 18.2% +0.03 55 31
165 Oregon State 18.2% +0.03 55 31
166 Iowa 18.2% +0.02 54 33
167 Boston University 18.2% +0.02 54 30
168 Florida A&M 18.1% -0.02 54 27
169 Furman 18.1% -0.03 54 33
170 Miami 18.0% -0.06 53 37
171 Ole Miss 18.0% -0.06 53 33
172 USC 18.0% -0.07 53 33
173 Cal State Northridge 18.0% -0.07 52 30
174 Western Kentucky 18.0% -0.08 52 31
175 Tennessee Tech 18.0% -0.09 52 30
176 Pacific 18.0% -0.09 52 31
177 Drexel 18.0% -0.09 51 31
178 Loyola Chicago 17.9% -0.10 51 31
179 La Salle 17.9% -0.10 51 34
180 Alabama State 17.9% -0.13 51 30
181 Youngstown State 17.9% -0.13 50 32
182 Fairfield 17.9% -0.14 50 30
183 Seattle U 17.8% -0.15 50 30
184 Colorado State 17.8% -0.15 49 32
185 Akron 17.8% -0.16 49 31
186 Mount St. Mary's 17.8% -0.16 49 32
187 Miami (OH) 17.8% -0.16 49 29
188 Florida 17.8% -0.16 48 33
189 Gonzaga 17.8% -0.18 48 36
190 Charlotte 17.8% -0.18 48 36
191 UNC Asheville 17.8% -0.18 48 33
192 Bellarmine 17.7% -0.19 47 30
193 Lindenwood 17.7% -0.19 47 29
194 DePaul 17.7% -0.19 47 33
195 Idaho State 17.7% -0.19 46 30
196 Purdue Fort Wayne 17.7% -0.20 46 30
197 San Francisco 17.7% -0.20 46 33
198 UL Monroe 17.7% -0.21 46 29
199 Old Dominion 17.7% -0.21 45 30
200 Towson 17.7% -0.21 45 33
201 Florida Atlantic 17.7% -0.21 45 37
202 Belmont 17.7% -0.22 44 31
203 Hartford 17.7% -0.23 44 25
204 Colgate 17.6% -0.23 44 34
205 East Texas A&M 17.6% -0.23 44 32
206 Georgia State 17.6% -0.26 43 28
207 Columbia 17.6% -0.27 43 27
208 Nebraska 17.6% -0.27 43 32
209 Milwaukee 17.6% -0.27 43 31
210 Southern Utah 17.5% -0.28 42 33
211 Ohio 17.5% -0.28 42 32
212 East Tennessee State 17.5% -0.29 42 30
213 Boise State 17.5% -0.30 41 33
214 LSU 17.5% -0.30 41 33
215 New Mexico 17.5% -0.30 41 33
216 Oral Roberts 17.5% -0.30 41 31
217 UC Irvine 17.5% -0.30 40 33
218 Drake 17.5% -0.30 40 34
219 St. Thomas-Minnesota 17.4% -0.32 40 31
220 Winthrop 17.4% -0.34 40 30
221 Kansas City 17.4% -0.34 39 30
222 Holy Cross 17.4% -0.35 39 30
223 Northern Arizona 17.3% -0.37 39 33
224 Mercer 17.3% -0.37 38 31
225 San Diego 17.3% -0.37 38 29
226 East Carolina 17.3% -0.37 38 33
227 Rhode Island 17.3% -0.38 38 31
228 Davidson 17.3% -0.38 37 31
229 Villanova 17.3% -0.39 37 34
230 Florida Gulf Coast 17.3% -0.39 37 31
231 South Dakota State 17.3% -0.40 36 31
232 Wake Forest 17.3% -0.40 36 33
233 Wright State 17.2% -0.41 36 31
234 UC Riverside 17.2% -0.42 36 33
235 App State 17.2% -0.43 35 29
236 Indiana State 17.2% -0.43 35 35
237 Richmond 17.1% -0.45 35 33
238 Florida State 17.1% -0.46 35 32
239 Elon 17.1% -0.46 34 30
240 Eastern Michigan 17.1% -0.47 34 30
241 Tulsa 17.1% -0.48 34 30
242 Lamar 17.1% -0.48 33 28
243 Air Force 17.1% -0.49 33 32
244 Detroit Mercy 17.0% -0.49 33 32
245 Niagara 17.0% -0.51 33 30
246 The Citadel 17.0% -0.52 32 31
247 Cincinnati 17.0% -0.52 32 35
248 UMBC 17.0% -0.53 32 31
249 UT Rio Grande Valley 16.9% -0.53 31 28
250 William & Mary 16.9% -0.54 31 31
251 Providence 16.9% -0.54 31 33
252 Portland 16.9% -0.56 31 31
253 Wichita State 16.9% -0.56 30 32
254 Arizona 16.9% -0.57 30 35
255 George Mason 16.8% -0.58 30 33
256 Marist 16.8% -0.60 30 33
257 Houston Christian 16.8% -0.60 29 29
258 Georgia 16.8% -0.60 29 32
259 Long Island University 16.8% -0.61 29 27
260 IU Indianapolis 16.8% -0.61 28 30
261 Ball State 16.7% -0.63 28 30
262 Illinois State 16.7% -0.63 28 32
263 Rider 16.7% -0.63 28 29
264 Central Arkansas 16.7% -0.64 27 30
265 Charleston Southern 16.7% -0.65 27 29
266 UT Martin 16.7% -0.66 27 29
267 Chicago State 16.7% -0.66 27 27
268 Santa Clara 16.6% -0.67 26 32
269 Wofford 16.6% -0.68 26 30
270 Vermont 16.6% -0.68 26 33
271 Lehigh 16.6% -0.68 25 28
272 Pepperdine 16.6% -0.69 25 29
273 UAlbany 16.6% -0.69 25 29
274 Arkansas State 16.6% -0.69 25 30
275 Washington State 16.6% -0.69 24 34
276 Southern Indiana 16.6% -0.70 24 30
277 Central Connecticut 16.6% -0.71 24 32
278 Dartmouth 16.5% -0.71 23 26
279 Kentucky 16.5% -0.71 23 34
280 Duke 16.5% -0.72 23 36
281 Pittsburgh 16.5% -0.72 23 36
282 Quinnipiac 16.5% -0.73 22 31
283 Temple 16.4% -0.75 22 32
284 UC San Diego 16.4% -0.76 22 28
285 Wyoming 16.4% -0.76 22 30
286 Jacksonville State 16.4% -0.77 21 28
287 Hawai'i 16.4% -0.77 21 32
288 Clemson 16.4% -0.78 21 34
289 Oregon 16.4% -0.78 20 36
290 Indiana 16.4% -0.79 20 35
291 High Point 16.3% -0.80 20 29
292 Bowling Green 16.3% -0.80 20 29
293 Western Illinois 16.3% -0.81 19 27
294 Xavier 16.2% -0.85 19 37
295 Loyola Marymount 16.2% -0.85 19 30
296 Virginia Tech 16.2% -0.85 19 34
297 Utah Valley 16.2% -0.86 18 34
298 Eastern Washington 16.2% -0.86 18 33
299 Idaho 16.2% -0.87 18 30
300 Dayton 16.2% -0.88 17 34
301 South Alabama 16.2% -0.88 17 33
302 New Hampshire 16.1% -0.89 17 28
303 Rice 16.1% -0.89 17 32
304 California 16.1% -0.90 16 32
305 Green Bay 16.1% -0.91 16 32
306 California Baptist 16.0% -0.93 16 31
307 Georgia Tech 15.9% -0.97 15 31
308 South Carolina 15.9% -0.98 15 32
309 Montana 15.9% -1.00 15 30
310 Georgetown 15.9% -1.00 15 32
311 Alabama 15.8% -1.01 14 37
312 Ohio State 15.8% -1.03 14 35
313 Omaha 15.8% -1.04 14 31
314 North Carolina A&T 15.8% -1.05 14 29
315 Valparaiso 15.7% -1.06 13 31
316 Queens University 15.7% -1.07 13 30
317 Hampton 15.7% -1.07 13 31
318 Utah State 15.7% -1.08 12 34
319 Bryant 15.7% -1.09 12 28
320 Denver 15.6% -1.12 12 30
321 Army 15.6% -1.12 12 31
322 Lipscomb 15.6% -1.12 11 30
323 Murray State 15.6% -1.13 11 31
324 Oklahoma 15.5% -1.14 11 32
325 Western Carolina 15.5% -1.15 10 31
326 George Washington 15.5% -1.16 10 31
327 North Dakota 15.5% -1.16 10 31
328 Coastal Carolina 15.5% -1.16 10 28
329 Bucknell 15.4% -1.21 9 31
330 Morehead State 15.4% -1.22 9 30
331 Saint Louis 15.4% -1.22 9 32
332 UTSA 15.3% -1.23 9 30
333 Purdue 15.3% -1.25 8 35
334 Chattanooga 15.3% -1.26 8 32
335 Vanderbilt 15.3% -1.27 8 37
336 Utah 15.2% -1.29 7 32
337 Louisville 15.2% -1.30 7 32
338 Binghamton 15.2% -1.31 7 29
339 Grand Canyon 15.1% -1.33 7 33
340 North Alabama 15.1% -1.35 6 30
341 NJIT 14.9% -1.41 6 29
342 Pennsylvania 14.9% -1.44 6 29
343 North Carolina 14.8% -1.46 6 33
344 Minnesota 14.8% -1.47 5 31
345 Michigan State 14.8% -1.49 5 34
346 Saint Francis 14.7% -1.52 5 29
347 Princeton 14.7% -1.53 4 30
348 VMI 14.6% -1.54 4 29
349 Sacramento State 14.5% -1.62 4 30
350 Northeastern 14.4% -1.63 4 30
351 Michigan 14.4% -1.64 3 34
352 Western Michigan 14.3% -1.67 3 28
353 South Dakota 14.3% -1.68 3 29
354 Jacksonville 14.3% -1.68 2 26
355 Stetson 14.2% -1.71 2 29
356 Northern Colorado 14.0% -1.80 2 31
357 North Florida 14.0% -1.83 2 29
358 Stony Brook 14.0% -1.83 1 31
359 Creighton 13.9% -1.88 1 37
360 Notre Dame 13.6% -1.98 1 32
361 San José State 13.2% -2.17 1 34
362 Penn State 13.1% -2.20 0 37
363 North Dakota State 12.4% -2.49 0 31