He took it all too far, but boy could he play guitar. "Ziggy Stardust" - David Bowie

Does it predict winners?

Predicts home win: AUC 0.64 (team entering with the better value wins 61% of games)

See the game-by-game scatter on the Predictor page →

Team Distribution

Season-to-date value for every team, with a density curve.

min 45.1% max 55.2% mean 49.8% std 2.3% (n=363)

Team Rankings

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# Team Opponents' Opponents' Win Percentage (OOWP) z Pctl GP
1 Arkansas 55.2% +2.37 100 36
2 Michigan State 54.7% +2.14 100 34
3 Alabama 54.7% +2.13 99 37
4 Kansas 54.6% +2.12 99 36
5 Tennessee 54.6% +2.10 99 36
6 UConn 54.5% +2.05 99 39
7 Kentucky 54.4% +2.01 98 34
8 Auburn 54.3% +1.99 98 34
9 Florida 54.3% +1.99 98 33
10 Oklahoma 54.3% +1.97 98 32
11 Saint Mary's 54.3% +1.97 97 34
12 West Virginia 53.9% +1.82 97 34
13 San Diego State 53.8% +1.78 97 38
14 Kansas State 53.7% +1.72 96 36
15 Nebraska 53.7% +1.70 96 32
16 Maryland 53.6% +1.68 96 35
17 USC 53.6% +1.65 96 33
18 Texas A&M 53.5% +1.63 95 35
19 Purdue 53.5% +1.62 95 35
20 Villanova 53.5% +1.62 95 34
21 Xavier 53.5% +1.61 94 37
22 Gonzaga 53.5% +1.61 94 36
23 Texas 53.5% +1.61 94 38
24 Creighton 53.5% +1.61 94 37
25 Vanderbilt 53.4% +1.58 93 37
26 Ole Miss 53.4% +1.58 93 33
27 Baylor 53.4% +1.56 93 34
28 Marquette 53.3% +1.55 93 36
29 Missouri 53.3% +1.55 92 35
30 Wisconsin 53.3% +1.51 92 35
31 Iowa State 53.2% +1.47 92 33
32 Virginia 53.1% +1.45 91 33
33 Duke 53.1% +1.45 91 36
34 Iowa 53.1% +1.45 91 33
35 Stanford 53.1% +1.44 91 33
36 South Carolina 53.0% +1.41 90 32
37 NC State 53.0% +1.40 90 34
38 Northwestern 53.0% +1.39 90 34
39 Nevada 53.0% +1.39 90 32
40 Penn State 53.0% +1.38 89 37
41 Illinois 53.0% +1.38 89 33
42 Michigan 52.9% +1.37 89 34
43 Memphis 52.9% +1.36 88 35
44 Oregon 52.9% +1.35 88 36
45 North Carolina 52.9% +1.35 88 33
46 Arizona 52.9% +1.34 88 35
47 Indiana 52.9% +1.34 87 35
48 Boise State 52.8% +1.33 87 33
49 Utah State 52.8% +1.32 87 34
50 Wake Forest 52.8% +1.30 86 33
51 Ohio State 52.7% +1.29 86 35
52 UCLA 52.7% +1.29 86 37
53 Pittsburgh 52.6% +1.24 86 36
54 Oklahoma State 52.6% +1.23 85 36
55 Colorado State 52.6% +1.22 85 32
56 Houston 52.6% +1.21 85 37
57 New Mexico 52.5% +1.20 85 33
58 Santa Clara 52.5% +1.20 84 32
59 Georgia 52.5% +1.19 84 32
60 Texas Tech 52.5% +1.18 84 32
61 Boston College 52.5% +1.18 83 33
62 Miami 52.5% +1.16 83 37
63 TCU 52.5% +1.16 83 35
64 Arizona State 52.5% +1.16 83 36
65 North Texas 52.4% +1.15 82 36
66 Mississippi State 52.4% +1.14 82 34
67 Seton Hall 52.4% +1.13 82 32
68 Louisville 52.3% +1.11 81 32
69 LSU 52.3% +1.10 81 33
70 Washington 52.3% +1.09 81 32
71 UCF 52.3% +1.08 81 34
72 Butler 52.2% +1.04 80 32
73 Minnesota 52.2% +1.03 80 31
74 Florida State 52.1% +1.02 80 32
75 Wyoming 52.1% +1.00 80 30
76 Utah Valley 52.0% +0.96 79 34
77 Florida Atlantic 52.0% +0.96 79 37
78 Colorado 52.0% +0.96 79 35
79 San Francisco 52.0% +0.95 78 33
80 Washington State 52.0% +0.94 78 34
81 Cincinnati 51.9% +0.93 78 35
82 Providence 51.9% +0.92 78 33
83 Virginia Tech 51.9% +0.92 77 34
84 St. John's 51.9% +0.91 77 33
85 Rutgers 51.8% +0.89 77 34
86 Syracuse 51.8% +0.89 77 32
87 DePaul 51.8% +0.87 76 33
88 Fresno State 51.8% +0.86 76 30
89 Loyola Marymount 51.8% +0.86 76 30
90 Temple 51.7% +0.83 75 32
91 Georgia Tech 51.7% +0.83 75 31
92 Clemson 51.7% +0.83 75 34
93 Utah 51.7% +0.83 75 32
94 BYU 51.7% +0.81 74 32
95 Oregon State 51.6% +0.80 74 31
96 UNLV 51.5% +0.76 74 31
97 San José State 51.5% +0.75 73 34
98 VCU 51.5% +0.73 73 35
99 Grand Canyon 51.4% +0.69 73 33
100 California 51.4% +0.69 73 32
101 Notre Dame 51.4% +0.68 72 32
102 UTEP 51.3% +0.67 72 30
103 Portland 51.3% +0.66 72 31
104 Middle Tennessee 51.3% +0.64 72 31
105 Wichita State 51.2% +0.60 71 32
106 South Florida 51.2% +0.59 71 32
107 Dayton 51.1% +0.57 71 34
108 Sam Houston 51.1% +0.56 70 30
109 UT Arlington 51.1% +0.55 70 29
110 Saint Louis 51.1% +0.54 70 32
111 Western Kentucky 51.1% +0.54 70 31
112 Tulane 51.0% +0.53 69 31
113 Pepperdine 51.0% +0.52 69 29
114 UAB 51.0% +0.52 69 38
115 Charlotte 51.0% +0.50 69 36
116 Air Force 50.9% +0.49 68 32
117 Oral Roberts 50.9% +0.49 68 31
118 Southern Utah 50.9% +0.49 68 33
119 Georgetown 50.9% +0.48 67 32
120 San Diego 50.8% +0.44 67 29
121 Howard 50.8% +0.44 67 32
122 New Mexico State 50.8% +0.41 67 21
123 James Madison 50.8% +0.41 66 30
124 Drake 50.7% +0.39 66 34
125 Yale 50.7% +0.38 66 28
126 Norfolk State 50.7% +0.38 65 29
127 Louisiana Tech 50.7% +0.37 65 30
128 George Washington 50.6% +0.35 65 31
129 Seattle U 50.6% +0.34 65 30
130 St. Bonaventure 50.6% +0.33 64 32
131 SMU 50.6% +0.32 64 32
132 George Mason 50.6% +0.32 64 33
133 Rice 50.6% +0.32 64 32
134 Kennesaw State 50.5% +0.32 63 32
135 Duquesne 50.5% +0.31 63 33
136 Iona 50.5% +0.29 63 35
137 East Carolina 50.5% +0.28 62 33
138 Bradley 50.5% +0.28 62 34
139 Hofstra 50.4% +0.27 62 34
140 Tulsa 50.4% +0.27 62 30
141 Loyola Chicago 50.4% +0.27 61 31
142 Tarleton State 50.4% +0.24 61 30
143 Bellarmine 50.3% +0.20 61 30
144 Liberty 50.3% +0.20 60 33
145 Maryland Eastern Shore 50.3% +0.20 60 27
146 Troy 50.3% +0.19 60 30
147 UC Irvine 50.3% +0.19 60 33
148 North Florida 50.2% +0.18 59 29
149 Murray State 50.2% +0.18 59 31
150 Davidson 50.2% +0.18 59 31
151 Louisiana 50.2% +0.16 59 31
152 Richmond 50.2% +0.15 58 33
153 Charleston 50.2% +0.15 58 34
154 Furman 50.2% +0.14 58 33
155 Florida Gulf Coast 50.1% +0.14 57 31
156 Massachusetts 50.1% +0.14 57 31
157 La Salle 50.1% +0.13 57 34
158 Texas State 50.1% +0.12 57 32
159 UNC Wilmington 50.1% +0.10 56 32
160 Stephen F. Austin 50.0% +0.09 56 29
161 Utah Tech 50.0% +0.09 56 30
162 Pacific 50.0% +0.09 56 31
163 Pennsylvania 50.0% +0.09 55 29
164 Saint Joseph's 50.0% +0.08 55 33
165 South Alabama 50.0% +0.08 55 33
166 Jacksonville 50.0% +0.07 54 26
167 South Dakota State 49.9% +0.05 54 31
168 Southern Miss 49.9% +0.02 54 30
169 Fordham 49.8% -0.02 54 33
170 UT Rio Grande Valley 49.8% -0.02 53 28
171 Georgia State 49.8% -0.03 53 28
172 Cornell 49.7% -0.04 53 26
173 Kent State 49.7% -0.05 52 33
174 Montana State 49.7% -0.06 52 33
175 Rhode Island 49.7% -0.06 52 31
176 California Baptist 49.7% -0.07 52 31
177 Northern Arizona 49.6% -0.09 51 33
178 Florida International 49.6% -0.11 51 30
179 North Alabama 49.6% -0.11 51 30
180 Toledo 49.6% -0.11 51 34
181 North Dakota State 49.5% -0.14 50 31
182 Missouri State 49.5% -0.14 50 31
183 Cal State Fullerton 49.5% -0.15 50 31
184 North Carolina A&T 49.5% -0.15 49 29
185 Northern Colorado 49.5% -0.15 49 31
186 Princeton 49.5% -0.16 49 30
187 Drexel 49.4% -0.17 49 31
188 Morgan State 49.4% -0.17 48 27
189 Buffalo 49.4% -0.18 48 30
190 Lipscomb 49.4% -0.19 48 30
191 Old Dominion 49.4% -0.20 48 30
192 Evansville 49.4% -0.20 47 32
193 Jacksonville State 49.4% -0.21 47 28
194 Stetson 49.3% -0.22 47 29
195 Eastern Washington 49.3% -0.24 46 33
196 UC Santa Barbara 49.3% -0.24 46 33
197 North Carolina Central 49.3% -0.25 46 26
198 Eastern Kentucky 49.3% -0.26 46 34
199 Belmont 49.2% -0.27 45 31
200 App State 49.2% -0.27 45 29
201 South Dakota 49.2% -0.28 45 29
202 Oakland 49.2% -0.28 44 31
203 Winthrop 49.1% -0.32 44 30
204 UL Monroe 49.0% -0.35 44 29
205 Omaha 49.0% -0.35 44 31
206 Brown 49.0% -0.36 43 27
207 Northern Iowa 49.0% -0.38 43 31
208 Samford 49.0% -0.39 43 28
209 UTSA 48.9% -0.39 43 30
210 Montana 48.9% -0.40 42 30
211 Queens University 48.9% -0.40 42 30
212 Austin Peay 48.9% -0.41 42 28
213 Weber State 48.9% -0.42 41 31
214 Towson 48.9% -0.42 41 33
215 UNC Greensboro 48.9% -0.42 41 30
216 Colgate 48.9% -0.42 41 34
217 Marshall 48.9% -0.43 40 31
218 Nicholls 48.9% -0.43 40 27
219 UC San Diego 48.9% -0.43 40 28
220 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 48.8% -0.44 40 31
221 Georgia Southern 48.8% -0.44 39 30
222 Abilene Christian 48.8% -0.44 39 26
223 Northeastern 48.8% -0.44 39 30
224 SE Louisiana 48.8% -0.44 38 29
225 Coppin State 48.8% -0.44 38 32
226 Northern Kentucky 48.8% -0.45 38 33
227 Wofford 48.8% -0.47 38 30
228 Monmouth 48.7% -0.48 37 33
229 Radford 48.7% -0.49 37 34
230 Coastal Carolina 48.7% -0.50 37 28
231 Delaware State 48.7% -0.51 36 28
232 UC Riverside 48.7% -0.52 36 33
233 Southern Illinois 48.6% -0.53 36 32
234 Central Arkansas 48.6% -0.54 36 30
235 Kansas City 48.6% -0.54 35 30
236 Jackson State 48.6% -0.54 35 33
237 Florida A&M 48.6% -0.55 35 27
238 Ball State 48.6% -0.56 35 30
239 Portland State 48.6% -0.56 34 29
240 Harvard 48.5% -0.57 34 26
241 Chattanooga 48.5% -0.57 34 32
242 Vermont 48.5% -0.57 33 33
243 Northern Illinois 48.5% -0.58 33 30
244 Eastern Michigan 48.5% -0.58 33 30
245 Akron 48.5% -0.59 33 31
246 Elon 48.5% -0.59 32 30
247 Arkansas State 48.5% -0.59 32 30
248 North Dakota 48.5% -0.60 32 31
249 UMBC 48.5% -0.61 31 31
250 Long Beach State 48.5% -0.61 31 31
251 Hawai'i 48.4% -0.62 31 32
252 Quinnipiac 48.4% -0.62 31 31
253 Valparaiso 48.4% -0.62 30 31
254 Bryant 48.4% -0.64 30 28
255 Morehead State 48.4% -0.64 30 30
256 Gardner-Webb 48.4% -0.64 30 29
257 St. Thomas-Minnesota 48.3% -0.66 29 31
258 Delaware 48.3% -0.66 29 32
259 Detroit Mercy 48.3% -0.67 29 32
260 Western Michigan 48.3% -0.67 28 28
261 Rider 48.3% -0.68 28 29
262 UNC Asheville 48.3% -0.69 28 33
263 Dartmouth 48.3% -0.69 28 26
264 Siena 48.3% -0.69 27 32
265 Sacramento State 48.2% -0.71 27 30
266 McNeese 48.2% -0.71 27 33
267 Chicago State 48.2% -0.72 27 27
268 South Carolina Upstate 48.2% -0.73 26 30
269 Stony Brook 48.2% -0.73 26 31
270 Indiana State 48.2% -0.74 26 35
271 UIC 48.1% -0.75 25 31
272 Western Illinois 48.1% -0.76 25 27
273 Alcorn State 48.1% -0.77 25 32
274 South Carolina State 48.1% -0.78 25 30
275 William & Mary 48.1% -0.78 24 31
276 Illinois State 48.1% -0.79 24 32
277 Cleveland State 48.0% -0.80 24 33
278 Mercer 48.0% -0.81 23 31
279 Cal State Bakersfield 48.0% -0.81 23 31
280 UC Davis 48.0% -0.82 23 30
281 Miami (OH) 48.0% -0.82 23 29
282 Maine 48.0% -0.83 22 28
283 Grambling 48.0% -0.83 22 31
284 Ohio 47.9% -0.83 22 32
285 Southern 47.9% -0.84 22 30
286 Western Carolina 47.9% -0.84 21 31
287 Milwaukee 47.9% -0.87 21 31
288 Purdue Fort Wayne 47.8% -0.88 21 30
289 Longwood 47.8% -0.90 20 30
290 East Tennessee State 47.8% -0.92 20 30
291 Wright State 47.7% -0.92 20 31
292 Central Michigan 47.7% -0.93 20 29
293 Green Bay 47.7% -0.94 19 32
294 Northwestern State 47.7% -0.94 19 32
295 Tennessee Tech 47.7% -0.95 19 30
296 Niagara 47.6% -0.97 19 30
297 Campbell 47.6% -0.99 18 32
298 UAlbany 47.6% -0.99 18 29
299 UMass Lowell 47.6% -1.00 18 32
300 Canisius 47.5% -1.02 17 29
301 Texas Southern 47.5% -1.04 17 33
302 Robert Morris 47.5% -1.04 17 31
303 Prairie View A&M 47.4% -1.06 17 30
304 Youngstown State 47.4% -1.07 16 32
305 East Texas A&M 47.4% -1.07 16 32
306 Hampton 47.4% -1.08 16 31
307 Alabama State 47.4% -1.09 15 30
308 Columbia 47.4% -1.09 15 27
309 Bowling Green 47.4% -1.10 15 29
310 Navy 47.3% -1.11 15 30
311 Idaho State 47.3% -1.11 14 30
312 Idaho 47.3% -1.11 14 30
313 Saint Peter's 47.3% -1.12 14 31
314 Houston Christian 47.3% -1.13 14 29
315 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 47.3% -1.14 13 27
316 Mississippi Valley State 47.2% -1.16 13 32
317 Lindenwood 47.2% -1.16 13 29
318 Mount St. Mary's 47.2% -1.18 12 32
319 Lafayette 47.1% -1.19 12 34
320 Cal State Northridge 47.1% -1.19 12 30
321 Cal Poly 47.1% -1.21 12 31
322 New Hampshire 47.1% -1.21 11 28
323 Lehigh 47.1% -1.21 11 28
324 Southeast Missouri State 47.1% -1.21 11 34
325 Manhattan 47.1% -1.22 10 29
326 The Citadel 47.1% -1.22 10 31
327 Loyola Maryland 47.1% -1.23 10 31
328 New Orleans 47.1% -1.23 10 30
329 Denver 47.0% -1.26 9 30
330 Fairleigh Dickinson 47.0% -1.27 9 35
331 Charleston Southern 46.9% -1.32 9 29
332 SIU Edwardsville 46.9% -1.32 9 30
333 American University 46.8% -1.33 8 32
334 Lamar 46.8% -1.34 8 28
335 Fairfield 46.8% -1.35 8 30
336 Southern Indiana 46.8% -1.35 7 30
337 Boston University 46.8% -1.36 7 31
338 Little Rock 46.7% -1.37 7 29
339 Binghamton 46.7% -1.38 7 29
340 Marist 46.7% -1.39 6 33
341 Bucknell 46.7% -1.41 6 31
342 Tennessee State 46.6% -1.41 6 28
343 Bethune-Cookman 46.6% -1.42 6 30
344 VMI 46.6% -1.43 5 29
345 Presbyterian 46.6% -1.44 5 30
346 Incarnate Word 46.6% -1.45 5 28
347 Sacred Heart 46.5% -1.48 4 32
348 Alabama A&M 46.5% -1.49 4 30
349 High Point 46.5% -1.49 4 29
350 Eastern Illinois 46.4% -1.52 4 29
351 Wagner 46.4% -1.53 3 26
352 UT Martin 46.3% -1.54 3 29
353 Central Connecticut 46.3% -1.55 3 32
354 Merrimack 46.2% -1.60 2 32
355 Army 46.2% -1.62 2 31
356 Stonehill 46.0% -1.70 2 30
357 IU Indianapolis 45.9% -1.73 2 30
358 Saint Francis 45.9% -1.74 1 29
359 Long Island University 45.6% -1.87 1 27
360 Holy Cross 45.5% -1.93 1 30
361 St. Francis Brooklyn 45.3% -1.98 1 28
362 Hartford 45.3% -2.00 0 25
363 NJIT 45.1% -2.11 0 29