I like bread and butter. I like toast and jam. "Bread and Butter" - The Newbeats

Game Outcomes

Each point is a completed game — x: home team's season-to-date value entering the game, y: away team's. home win home loss

Predicts home win: AUC 0.69 (team entering with the better value wins 64% of games)

Based on 5499 of 5721 completed games where both teams entered with a season-to-date value.

Team Distribution

Season-to-date value for every team, with a density curve.

min 87.3 max 120.2 mean 102.9 std 5.7 (n=363)

Team Rankings

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# Team Offensive Efficiency z Pctl GP
1 Toledo 120.2 +3.03 100 34
2 Gonzaga 118.9 +2.80 100 36
3 Houston 115.4 +2.17 99 37
4 Oral Roberts 115.2 +2.14 99 31
5 Colgate 114.8 +2.08 99 34
6 UConn 114.7 +2.06 99 39
7 Youngstown State 114.7 +2.06 98 32
8 Miami 114.5 +2.03 98 37
9 Furman 114.4 +2.01 98 33
10 Iowa 113.7 +1.89 98 33
11 Purdue 113.7 +1.89 97 35
12 Marquette 113.2 +1.80 97 36
13 Arizona 113.0 +1.76 97 35
14 Baylor 112.8 +1.73 96 34
15 Florida Atlantic 112.6 +1.70 96 37
16 Missouri 112.2 +1.63 96 35
17 Stetson 112.1 +1.61 96 29
18 Xavier 112.1 +1.61 95 37
19 Utah State 112.0 +1.58 95 34
20 Charleston 111.8 +1.55 95 34
21 Cornell 111.7 +1.53 94 26
22 Ohio 111.6 +1.52 94 32
23 Detroit Mercy 111.3 +1.47 94 32
24 Liberty 111.2 +1.45 94 33
25 NC State 111.2 +1.44 93 34
26 Kentucky 110.9 +1.39 93 34
27 Providence 110.8 +1.38 93 33
28 Marshall 110.8 +1.38 93 31
29 Virginia Tech 110.8 +1.38 92 34
30 Pittsburgh 110.7 +1.36 92 36
31 New Mexico 110.6 +1.35 92 33
32 Iona 110.5 +1.32 91 35
33 Alabama 110.3 +1.28 91 37
34 UCLA 110.2 +1.27 91 37
35 Samford 110.2 +1.26 91 28
36 UMass Lowell 110.1 +1.25 90 32
37 UAB 110.1 +1.25 90 38
38 Indiana State 110.1 +1.25 90 35
39 Penn State 110.0 +1.24 90 37
40 Texas 109.9 +1.23 89 38
41 Eastern Washington 109.7 +1.18 89 33
42 Creighton 109.7 +1.18 89 37
43 Saint Mary's 109.6 +1.16 88 34
44 Ohio State 109.6 +1.16 88 35
45 Duke 109.5 +1.15 88 36
46 Ball State 109.5 +1.15 88 30
47 Akron 109.5 +1.15 87 31
48 Belmont 109.5 +1.14 87 31
49 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 109.3 +1.11 87 31
50 Clemson 109.2 +1.10 86 34
51 Chattanooga 109.2 +1.09 86 32
52 Louisiana 109.1 +1.07 86 31
53 Hofstra 108.9 +1.05 86 34
54 UC Santa Barbara 108.9 +1.05 85 33
55 Texas A&M 108.9 +1.04 85 35
56 Memphis 108.9 +1.04 85 35
57 Wake Forest 108.8 +1.02 85 33
58 West Virginia 108.7 +1.02 84 34
59 Fairleigh Dickinson 108.6 +1.00 84 35
60 Grand Canyon 108.6 +0.99 84 33
61 Indiana 108.5 +0.97 83 35
62 Cincinnati 108.5 +0.97 83 35
63 Vermont 108.4 +0.96 83 33
64 Virginia 108.3 +0.94 83 33
65 Northwestern State 108.3 +0.94 82 32
66 Wofford 108.2 +0.93 82 30
67 Norfolk State 108.2 +0.92 82 29
68 Yale 108.1 +0.91 81 28
69 Towson 108.1 +0.90 81 33
70 Kent State 108.0 +0.89 81 33
71 Montana 108.0 +0.88 81 30
72 St. Thomas-Minnesota 108.0 +0.88 80 31
73 Pennsylvania 107.8 +0.86 80 29
74 Drake 107.8 +0.85 80 34
75 Portland 107.8 +0.85 80 31
76 Duquesne 107.7 +0.84 79 33
77 North Carolina 107.7 +0.84 79 33
78 San Diego 107.7 +0.83 79 29
79 Princeton 107.7 +0.83 78 30
80 Syracuse 107.5 +0.80 78 32
81 Winthrop 107.5 +0.80 78 30
82 Maryland 107.5 +0.80 78 35
83 Tennessee 107.5 +0.80 77 36
84 UMBC 107.5 +0.79 77 31
85 Charlotte 107.5 +0.79 77 36
86 Santa Clara 107.4 +0.78 77 32
87 Dayton 107.3 +0.76 76 34
88 North Florida 107.2 +0.75 76 29
89 Saint Louis 107.1 +0.74 76 32
90 George Washington 107.1 +0.73 75 31
91 Kansas 107.0 +0.72 75 36
92 Queens University 107.0 +0.71 75 30
93 North Texas 107.0 +0.70 75 36
94 Nevada 106.9 +0.69 74 32
95 Villanova 106.9 +0.69 74 34
96 Michigan State 106.8 +0.67 74 34
97 Loyola Marymount 106.7 +0.67 73 30
98 San Francisco 106.7 +0.66 73 33
99 James Madison 106.6 +0.64 73 30
100 Vanderbilt 106.6 +0.64 73 37
101 Michigan 106.5 +0.63 72 34
102 Tulane 106.4 +0.61 72 31
103 Lipscomb 106.4 +0.61 72 30
104 Wright State 106.4 +0.60 72 31
105 Colorado State 106.4 +0.60 71 32
106 Longwood 106.4 +0.60 71 30
107 Stanford 106.3 +0.59 71 33
108 Pacific 106.2 +0.57 70 31
109 Boise State 106.2 +0.57 70 33
110 Kansas State 106.2 +0.56 70 36
111 Oregon 106.1 +0.56 70 36
112 Southern Utah 106.1 +0.54 69 33
113 Texas Tech 105.9 +0.53 69 32
114 TCU 105.9 +0.52 69 35
115 Southern Miss 105.9 +0.52 69 30
116 Notre Dame 105.9 +0.51 68 32
117 SE Louisiana 105.8 +0.50 68 29
118 Bradley 105.6 +0.47 68 34
119 Charleston Southern 105.6 +0.46 67 29
120 Cleveland State 105.6 +0.46 67 33
121 Illinois 105.6 +0.46 67 33
122 Bryant 105.5 +0.44 67 28
123 Navy 105.4 +0.44 66 30
124 Kennesaw State 105.3 +0.42 66 32
125 Rice 105.3 +0.42 66 32
126 Northern Arizona 105.3 +0.41 65 33
127 Arkansas 105.3 +0.41 65 36
128 UCF 105.2 +0.40 65 34
129 Northern Colorado 105.2 +0.40 65 31
130 Montana State 105.2 +0.39 64 33
131 Auburn 105.2 +0.39 64 34
132 USC 105.1 +0.38 64 33
133 Southern Indiana 105.1 +0.37 64 30
134 Western Illinois 105.1 +0.37 63 27
135 San José State 105.0 +0.36 63 34
136 Rider 105.0 +0.35 63 29
137 Florida Gulf Coast 104.9 +0.35 62 31
138 Washington State 104.9 +0.34 62 34
139 Utah Valley 104.9 +0.34 62 34
140 San Diego State 104.8 +0.32 62 38
141 Bowling Green 104.8 +0.32 61 29
142 South Alabama 104.7 +0.31 61 33
143 UC Riverside 104.6 +0.30 61 33
144 UC Irvine 104.6 +0.28 60 33
145 Radford 104.5 +0.28 60 34
146 Utah Tech 104.5 +0.27 60 30
147 UNC Greensboro 104.5 +0.27 60 30
148 UT Martin 104.4 +0.26 59 29
149 Campbell 104.4 +0.26 59 32
150 BYU 104.4 +0.26 59 32
151 UNC Asheville 104.2 +0.23 59 33
152 VCU 104.2 +0.22 58 35
153 Army 104.2 +0.21 58 31
154 Miami (OH) 104.1 +0.21 58 29
155 Air Force 104.1 +0.21 57 32
156 Tennessee State 104.1 +0.21 57 28
157 North Dakota State 103.9 +0.17 57 31
158 Davidson 103.9 +0.17 57 31
159 Northern Kentucky 103.8 +0.14 56 33
160 Middle Tennessee 103.7 +0.14 56 31
161 Northwestern 103.6 +0.12 56 34
162 Milwaukee 103.5 +0.10 56 31
163 Quinnipiac 103.5 +0.10 55 31
164 North Dakota 103.4 +0.09 55 31
165 South Florida 103.4 +0.09 55 32
166 East Texas A&M 103.4 +0.08 54 32
167 Wichita State 103.4 +0.08 54 32
168 Oakland 103.4 +0.08 54 31
169 Stephen F. Austin 103.3 +0.07 54 29
170 Saint Joseph's 103.3 +0.07 53 33
171 Murray State 103.3 +0.07 53 31
172 Idaho 103.3 +0.06 53 30
173 SIU Edwardsville 103.3 +0.06 52 30
174 South Dakota State 103.2 +0.05 52 31
175 St. John's 103.2 +0.05 52 33
176 Eastern Kentucky 103.2 +0.04 52 34
177 UNLV 103.1 +0.03 51 31
178 Denver 102.9 -0.00 51 30
179 Utah 102.9 -0.01 51 32
180 American University 102.8 -0.02 51 32
181 Saint Francis 102.8 -0.02 50 29
182 UC Davis 102.8 -0.03 50 30
183 Wyoming 102.8 -0.03 50 30
184 Pepperdine 102.8 -0.03 49 29
185 North Alabama 102.8 -0.03 49 30
186 Sacramento State 102.6 -0.05 49 30
187 Western Michigan 102.6 -0.06 49 28
188 Missouri State 102.6 -0.06 48 31
189 Western Carolina 102.5 -0.07 48 31
190 Delaware 102.5 -0.07 48 32
191 Tennessee Tech 102.5 -0.07 48 30
192 Howard 102.5 -0.08 47 32
193 Iowa State 102.4 -0.09 47 33
194 Troy 102.4 -0.09 47 30
195 Buffalo 102.4 -0.10 46 30
196 Houston Christian 102.4 -0.10 46 29
197 Southeast Missouri State 102.4 -0.10 46 33
198 Sam Houston 102.4 -0.10 46 30
199 Louisiana Tech 102.3 -0.10 45 30
200 Idaho State 102.3 -0.11 45 30
201 Little Rock 102.3 -0.11 45 29
202 Rutgers 102.2 -0.12 44 34
203 South Dakota 102.2 -0.13 44 29
204 Richmond 102.1 -0.14 44 33
205 Long Beach State 102.0 -0.17 44 31
206 Fordham 101.9 -0.17 43 33
207 Arizona State 101.9 -0.18 43 36
208 Eastern Michigan 101.8 -0.19 43 30
209 Florida 101.8 -0.20 43 33
210 Siena 101.8 -0.20 42 32
211 Western Kentucky 101.8 -0.20 42 31
212 Temple 101.8 -0.20 42 32
213 UNC Wilmington 101.8 -0.20 41 32
214 Portland State 101.8 -0.21 41 29
215 Texas State 101.7 -0.21 41 32
216 Purdue Fort Wayne 101.7 -0.22 41 30
217 Drexel 101.6 -0.23 40 31
218 Cal State Fullerton 101.6 -0.23 40 31
219 East Tennessee State 101.6 -0.23 40 30
220 Jacksonville State 101.5 -0.25 40 28
221 Hawai'i 101.5 -0.25 39 32
222 Old Dominion 101.5 -0.25 39 30
223 Coastal Carolina 101.4 -0.26 39 28
224 High Point 101.4 -0.27 38 29
225 George Mason 101.4 -0.27 38 33
226 New Mexico State 101.3 -0.29 38 21
227 LSU 101.2 -0.30 38 33
228 Georgia Tech 101.2 -0.31 37 31
229 Northern Iowa 101.1 -0.32 37 31
230 Abilene Christian 101.1 -0.33 37 26
231 Nicholls 101.0 -0.33 36 27
232 Ole Miss 100.9 -0.35 36 33
233 California Baptist 100.9 -0.36 36 31
234 UT Rio Grande Valley 100.9 -0.36 36 28
235 Mercer 100.9 -0.36 35 31
236 Oklahoma 100.9 -0.36 35 32
237 La Salle 100.8 -0.37 35 34
238 Canisius 100.8 -0.38 35 29
239 Colorado 100.8 -0.38 34 35
240 Wisconsin 100.8 -0.38 34 35
241 Chicago State 100.8 -0.38 34 27
242 Morehead State 100.7 -0.40 33 30
243 North Carolina Central 100.7 -0.40 33 26
244 Seton Hall 100.6 -0.41 33 32
245 Florida International 100.6 -0.42 33 30
246 Bellarmine 100.4 -0.45 32 30
247 DePaul 100.4 -0.45 32 33
248 East Carolina 100.4 -0.45 32 33
249 Niagara 100.3 -0.46 31 30
250 New Orleans 100.3 -0.46 31 30
251 Nebraska 100.2 -0.49 31 32
252 Florida State 100.2 -0.49 31 32
253 Robert Morris 100.1 -0.49 30 31
254 Southern Illinois 100.1 -0.50 30 32
255 Georgia 100.1 -0.50 30 32
256 Northern Illinois 100.0 -0.51 30 30
257 Gardner-Webb 100.0 -0.51 29 29
258 Oklahoma State 100.0 -0.52 29 36
259 Harvard 99.8 -0.54 29 26
260 Binghamton 99.7 -0.56 28 29
261 Mississippi State 99.7 -0.57 28 34
262 Grambling 99.7 -0.58 28 31
263 Georgia Southern 99.6 -0.58 28 30
264 Seattle U 99.6 -0.59 27 30
265 William & Mary 99.5 -0.59 27 31
266 Illinois State 99.5 -0.60 27 32
267 Weber State 99.5 -0.60 27 31
268 Boston University 99.5 -0.60 26 30
269 Fresno State 99.5 -0.61 26 30
270 St. Bonaventure 99.4 -0.62 26 32
271 Jacksonville 99.4 -0.62 25 26
272 Bucknell 99.4 -0.63 25 31
273 Tarleton State 99.3 -0.64 25 30
274 Boston College 99.3 -0.64 25 33
275 McNeese 99.2 -0.65 24 33
276 UTSA 99.0 -0.68 24 30
277 Brown 99.0 -0.68 24 27
278 Arkansas State 99.0 -0.69 23 30
279 Loyola Maryland 99.0 -0.69 23 31
280 Loyola Chicago 99.0 -0.69 23 31
281 Georgetown 99.0 -0.70 23 32
282 App State 98.9 -0.71 22 29
283 UC San Diego 98.9 -0.71 22 28
284 Maine 98.8 -0.73 22 28
285 Central Connecticut 98.8 -0.73 22 32
286 Massachusetts 98.6 -0.75 21 31
287 Omaha 98.4 -0.80 21 31
288 Alcorn State 98.4 -0.80 21 32
289 South Carolina Upstate 98.3 -0.81 20 30
290 Sacred Heart 98.2 -0.82 20 32
291 NJIT 98.2 -0.83 20 29
292 New Hampshire 98.2 -0.84 20 28
293 Lehigh 98.1 -0.84 19 28
294 Washington 98.0 -0.87 19 32
295 Incarnate Word 97.9 -0.88 19 28
296 SMU 97.8 -0.90 19 32
297 Fairfield 97.8 -0.90 18 30
298 Central Arkansas 97.8 -0.91 18 30
299 UAlbany 97.6 -0.94 18 29
300 Lamar 97.5 -0.95 17 28
301 Stonehill 97.5 -0.95 17 30
302 VMI 97.4 -0.97 17 29
303 The Citadel 97.4 -0.97 17 31
304 Marist 97.4 -0.97 16 33
305 South Carolina State 97.1 -1.02 16 30
306 South Carolina 96.9 -1.05 16 32
307 Coppin State 96.9 -1.05 15 32
308 Manhattan 96.9 -1.05 15 29
309 Valparaiso 96.9 -1.06 15 31
310 Butler 96.8 -1.07 15 32
311 Dartmouth 96.6 -1.11 14 26
312 Northeastern 96.5 -1.12 14 30
313 North Carolina A&T 96.5 -1.13 14 29
314 Mount St. Mary's 96.4 -1.14 14 32
315 Hampton 96.4 -1.14 13 31
316 UTEP 96.3 -1.15 13 30
317 UIC 96.3 -1.16 13 31
318 Austin Peay 96.2 -1.18 12 28
319 Wagner 96.1 -1.20 12 26
320 Elon 96.1 -1.20 12 30
321 Saint Peter's 96.0 -1.22 12 31
322 Lindenwood 95.9 -1.22 11 29
323 Bethune-Cookman 95.9 -1.23 11 30
324 Lafayette 95.9 -1.24 11 34
325 Kansas City 95.7 -1.27 10 30
326 Alabama A&M 95.7 -1.27 10 30
327 Southern 95.5 -1.30 10 30
328 Jackson State 95.4 -1.32 10 33
329 Minnesota 95.2 -1.35 9 31
330 Georgia State 95.2 -1.35 9 28
331 Rhode Island 95.2 -1.35 9 31
332 Louisville 95.2 -1.36 9 32
333 IU Indianapolis 95.2 -1.36 8 30
334 Eastern Illinois 94.8 -1.43 8 29
335 Presbyterian 94.7 -1.44 8 30
336 Morgan State 94.7 -1.44 7 27
337 St. Francis Brooklyn 94.5 -1.48 7 28
338 Holy Cross 94.4 -1.49 7 30
339 UT Arlington 94.4 -1.49 7 29
340 Maryland Eastern Shore 94.3 -1.51 6 27
341 Tulsa 94.2 -1.52 6 30
342 UL Monroe 94.0 -1.56 6 29
343 Stony Brook 94.0 -1.56 6 31
344 Central Michigan 93.9 -1.57 5 29
345 Prairie View A&M 93.8 -1.60 5 30
346 Texas Southern 93.6 -1.63 5 33
347 Oregon State 93.4 -1.67 4 31
348 Cal State Northridge 93.2 -1.71 4 30
349 Merrimack 92.3 -1.85 4 32
350 Cal State Bakersfield 92.0 -1.91 4 31
351 Alabama State 91.7 -1.97 3 30
352 Columbia 91.6 -1.98 3 27
353 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 91.6 -1.99 3 27
354 Cal Poly 91.4 -2.01 2 31
355 Delaware State 90.8 -2.13 2 28
356 Monmouth 90.0 -2.26 2 33
357 Hartford 89.8 -2.29 2 25
358 California 89.4 -2.36 1 32
359 Evansville 89.3 -2.38 1 32
360 Mississippi Valley State 89.3 -2.38 1 32
361 Green Bay 89.3 -2.39 1 32
362 Florida A&M 87.7 -2.67 0 27
363 Long Island University 87.3 -2.74 0 27