I like bread and butter. I like toast and jam. "Bread and Butter" - The Newbeats

Game Outcomes

Each point is a completed game — x: home team's season-to-date value entering the game, y: away team's. home win home loss

Weak standalone predictor of the winner.

Based on 5499 of 5721 completed games where both teams entered with a season-to-date value.

Team Distribution

Season-to-date value for every team, with a density curve.

min 15.3% max 34.3% mean 22.6% std 3.4% (n=363)

Team Rankings

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# Team Free Throw Rate z Pctl GP
1 Texas A&M 34.3% +3.43 100 35
2 Tarleton State 33.8% +3.29 100 30
3 Montana State 33.3% +3.15 99 33
4 Portland 32.2% +2.81 99 31
5 UT Rio Grande Valley 32.0% +2.75 99 28
6 Utah Tech 31.5% +2.60 99 30
7 Winthrop 31.1% +2.49 98 30
8 Nevada 31.1% +2.49 98 32
9 Samford 30.8% +2.41 98 28
10 UC Davis 30.4% +2.29 98 30
11 Norfolk State 29.8% +2.11 97 29
12 SIU Edwardsville 29.6% +2.07 97 30
13 Houston Christian 29.5% +2.03 97 29
14 Georgia 29.4% +2.00 96 32
15 UNC Wilmington 29.4% +2.00 96 32
16 West Virginia 29.2% +1.95 96 34
17 Ball State 29.1% +1.89 96 30
18 VCU 28.9% +1.86 95 35
19 New Mexico 28.9% +1.85 95 33
20 Southern Utah 28.8% +1.82 95 33
21 Denver 28.6% +1.77 94 30
22 UNC Asheville 28.3% +1.68 94 33
23 Stephen F. Austin 28.0% +1.57 94 29
24 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 27.9% +1.55 94 31
25 Fordham 27.9% +1.55 93 33
26 Purdue 27.7% +1.49 93 35
27 UTSA 27.7% +1.49 93 30
28 Idaho 27.6% +1.47 93 30
29 Rhode Island 27.5% +1.45 92 31
30 Tulane 27.5% +1.44 92 31
31 North Carolina 27.4% +1.42 92 33
32 Seton Hall 27.4% +1.41 91 32
33 Baylor 27.4% +1.40 91 34
34 Arkansas 27.4% +1.40 91 36
35 Fairfield 27.3% +1.38 91 30
36 James Madison 27.2% +1.36 90 30
37 Southeast Missouri State 27.1% +1.31 90 33
38 Cal State Northridge 27.0% +1.30 90 30
39 Kansas State 27.0% +1.28 90 36
40 Providence 26.9% +1.27 89 33
41 Cal State Fullerton 26.9% +1.26 89 31
42 Coppin State 26.7% +1.20 89 32
43 Utah State 26.7% +1.20 88 34
44 Alabama 26.6% +1.16 88 37
45 Grambling 26.6% +1.16 88 31
46 Toledo 26.5% +1.15 88 34
47 Campbell 26.5% +1.15 87 32
48 Memphis 26.5% +1.14 87 35
49 UAB 26.4% +1.11 87 38
50 Grand Canyon 26.3% +1.10 86 33
51 Utah Valley 26.3% +1.07 86 34
52 Temple 26.2% +1.04 86 32
53 Central Michigan 26.0% +0.98 86 29
54 Queens University 25.9% +0.97 85 30
55 UNLV 25.9% +0.96 85 31
56 UT Martin 25.9% +0.95 85 29
57 New Orleans 25.8% +0.94 85 30
58 George Washington 25.7% +0.91 84 31
59 Weber State 25.7% +0.90 84 31
60 Oregon State 25.6% +0.88 84 31
61 Furman 25.6% +0.87 83 33
62 East Carolina 25.5% +0.86 83 33
63 Miami (OH) 25.4% +0.83 83 29
64 Siena 25.4% +0.83 83 32
65 Portland State 25.4% +0.83 82 29
66 Alcorn State 25.4% +0.83 82 32
67 Akron 25.4% +0.82 82 31
68 UC Santa Barbara 25.3% +0.80 81 33
69 Arizona 25.3% +0.80 81 35
70 Mississippi Valley State 25.3% +0.78 81 32
71 Morehead State 25.3% +0.78 81 30
72 Auburn 25.3% +0.78 80 34
73 Texas Tech 25.1% +0.74 80 32
74 Maryland 25.1% +0.73 80 35
75 Hawai'i 25.1% +0.73 80 32
76 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 25.1% +0.72 79 27
77 UMass Lowell 25.0% +0.70 79 32
78 Pittsburgh 24.9% +0.68 79 36
79 Incarnate Word 24.9% +0.68 78 28
80 Southern 24.9% +0.67 78 30
81 Dayton 24.8% +0.65 78 34
82 Louisiana 24.8% +0.65 78 31
83 Illinois State 24.8% +0.64 77 32
84 USC 24.8% +0.63 77 33
85 Florida 24.7% +0.62 77 33
86 Oakland 24.7% +0.61 77 31
87 Villanova 24.6% +0.59 76 34
88 Davidson 24.6% +0.58 76 31
89 Old Dominion 24.6% +0.58 76 30
90 Eastern Michigan 24.6% +0.58 75 30
91 Murray State 24.6% +0.58 75 31
92 Richmond 24.6% +0.57 75 33
93 Virginia 24.4% +0.53 75 33
94 Stonehill 24.4% +0.53 74 30
95 Charleston 24.4% +0.52 74 34
96 UTEP 24.4% +0.52 74 30
97 Louisville 24.4% +0.51 73 32
98 LSU 24.3% +0.50 73 33
99 High Point 24.3% +0.50 73 29
100 North Carolina Central 24.3% +0.49 73 26
101 Delaware 24.2% +0.48 72 32
102 Indiana State 24.2% +0.47 72 35
103 Georgia State 24.2% +0.46 72 28
104 Bryant 24.1% +0.44 72 28
105 George Mason 24.1% +0.44 71 33
106 Pacific 24.1% +0.43 71 31
107 San Diego State 24.1% +0.43 71 38
108 San Francisco 24.1% +0.43 70 33
109 Miami 24.1% +0.43 70 37
110 Saint Joseph's 24.1% +0.42 70 33
111 Longwood 24.0% +0.42 70 30
112 St. Thomas-Minnesota 24.0% +0.41 69 31
113 Rice 24.0% +0.40 69 32
114 Tennessee State 24.0% +0.40 69 28
115 Wake Forest 23.9% +0.39 69 33
116 Clemson 23.9% +0.38 68 34
117 Western Carolina 23.9% +0.38 68 31
118 SE Louisiana 23.9% +0.37 68 29
119 Iowa 23.8% +0.36 67 33
120 TCU 23.8% +0.35 67 35
121 Kansas City 23.8% +0.34 67 30
122 Wyoming 23.8% +0.34 67 30
123 Kennesaw State 23.8% +0.34 66 32
124 Merrimack 23.8% +0.33 66 32
125 North Texas 23.7% +0.33 66 36
126 Eastern Washington 23.7% +0.33 65 33
127 San Diego 23.7% +0.33 65 29
128 New Mexico State 23.7% +0.32 65 21
129 Arkansas State 23.7% +0.32 65 30
130 Washington 23.7% +0.32 64 32
131 Gonzaga 23.7% +0.31 64 36
132 Milwaukee 23.7% +0.30 64 31
133 BYU 23.5% +0.27 64 32
134 Southern Miss 23.5% +0.27 63 30
135 Northern Colorado 23.5% +0.27 63 31
136 Abilene Christian 23.5% +0.26 63 26
137 Little Rock 23.5% +0.26 62 29
138 Texas State 23.5% +0.26 62 32
139 UConn 23.4% +0.24 62 39
140 Lehigh 23.3% +0.21 62 28
141 Long Beach State 23.3% +0.19 61 31
142 Illinois 23.3% +0.19 61 33
143 Chicago State 23.2% +0.17 61 27
144 Alabama A&M 23.2% +0.17 60 30
145 UNC Greensboro 23.2% +0.16 60 30
146 Omaha 23.1% +0.15 60 31
147 Seattle U 23.1% +0.15 60 30
148 Cal Poly 23.1% +0.14 59 31
149 Troy 23.1% +0.14 59 30
150 Massachusetts 23.1% +0.13 59 31
151 North Dakota State 23.0% +0.12 59 31
152 Bowling Green 23.0% +0.11 58 29
153 Montana 23.0% +0.11 58 30
154 Howard 23.0% +0.10 58 32
155 Saint Francis 22.9% +0.10 57 29
156 Syracuse 22.9% +0.09 57 32
157 Youngstown State 22.9% +0.09 57 32
158 Duke 22.9% +0.09 57 36
159 Chattanooga 22.9% +0.08 56 32
160 Lamar 22.9% +0.08 56 28
161 Texas 22.8% +0.07 56 38
162 Western Kentucky 22.8% +0.06 56 31
163 Kent State 22.8% +0.05 55 33
164 California 22.8% +0.05 55 32
165 Coastal Carolina 22.8% +0.04 55 28
166 Texas Southern 22.7% +0.03 54 33
167 Presbyterian 22.6% +0.00 54 30
168 UAlbany 22.6% -0.00 54 29
169 Air Force 22.6% -0.02 54 32
170 Kentucky 22.5% -0.02 53 34
171 Buffalo 22.5% -0.02 53 30
172 Oklahoma State 22.5% -0.03 53 36
173 Southern Indiana 22.5% -0.03 52 30
174 Maryland Eastern Shore 22.5% -0.04 52 27
175 Northwestern 22.5% -0.05 52 34
176 Vanderbilt 22.5% -0.05 52 37
177 UIC 22.4% -0.05 51 31
178 Bethune-Cookman 22.4% -0.07 51 30
179 Boise State 22.4% -0.08 51 33
180 Prairie View A&M 22.3% -0.08 51 30
181 IU Indianapolis 22.3% -0.08 50 30
182 South Dakota State 22.3% -0.08 50 31
183 Xavier 22.3% -0.10 50 37
184 Jacksonville State 22.3% -0.10 49 28
185 UCF 22.3% -0.10 49 34
186 Cal State Bakersfield 22.3% -0.11 49 31
187 SMU 22.3% -0.11 49 32
188 Northern Illinois 22.2% -0.11 48 30
189 Jackson State 22.2% -0.11 48 33
190 Creighton 22.2% -0.12 48 37
191 Oregon 22.2% -0.12 48 36
192 Saint Mary's 22.2% -0.13 47 34
193 Stony Brook 22.1% -0.14 47 31
194 Sam Houston 22.1% -0.15 47 30
195 Colorado State 22.1% -0.15 46 32
196 Green Bay 22.1% -0.15 46 32
197 Florida A&M 22.1% -0.15 46 27
198 Monmouth 22.1% -0.16 46 33
199 Oklahoma 22.1% -0.16 45 32
200 Wichita State 22.1% -0.16 45 32
201 Florida State 22.1% -0.16 45 32
202 Southern Illinois 22.1% -0.16 44 32
203 Hampton 22.0% -0.17 44 31
204 Missouri 22.0% -0.17 44 35
205 Wofford 21.9% -0.20 44 30
206 Quinnipiac 21.9% -0.20 43 31
207 Alabama State 21.9% -0.20 43 30
208 Western Illinois 21.9% -0.20 43 27
209 Michigan 21.9% -0.21 43 34
210 Mississippi State 21.9% -0.21 42 34
211 Army 21.9% -0.22 42 31
212 Pennsylvania 21.9% -0.22 42 29
213 Drake 21.9% -0.23 41 34
214 St. Francis Brooklyn 21.8% -0.24 41 28
215 The Citadel 21.8% -0.25 41 31
216 Northern Iowa 21.7% -0.26 41 31
217 Gardner-Webb 21.7% -0.26 40 29
218 Tennessee 21.7% -0.27 40 36
219 Loyola Chicago 21.7% -0.28 40 31
220 Princeton 21.6% -0.29 40 30
221 Niagara 21.6% -0.30 39 30
222 Boston University 21.6% -0.31 39 30
223 Arizona State 21.5% -0.33 39 36
224 Rider 21.5% -0.33 38 29
225 Santa Clara 21.5% -0.33 38 32
226 Kansas 21.5% -0.34 38 36
227 South Dakota 21.4% -0.35 38 29
228 Tennessee Tech 21.4% -0.37 37 30
229 UC Irvine 21.3% -0.38 37 33
230 Yale 21.3% -0.38 37 28
231 Florida Atlantic 21.3% -0.38 36 37
232 UL Monroe 21.3% -0.40 36 29
233 North Alabama 21.2% -0.41 36 30
234 Idaho State 21.2% -0.41 36 30
235 Iona 21.2% -0.41 35 35
236 Loyola Marymount 21.2% -0.42 35 30
237 Harvard 21.2% -0.42 35 26
238 Houston 21.2% -0.43 35 37
239 Saint Louis 21.1% -0.44 34 32
240 Fairleigh Dickinson 21.1% -0.44 34 35
241 Long Island University 21.1% -0.45 34 27
242 Morgan State 21.1% -0.45 33 27
243 Towson 21.1% -0.46 33 33
244 Detroit Mercy 21.0% -0.48 33 32
245 Indiana 20.9% -0.50 33 35
246 East Tennessee State 20.9% -0.50 32 30
247 Georgetown 20.9% -0.51 32 32
248 Florida Gulf Coast 20.8% -0.54 32 31
249 Colorado 20.8% -0.54 31 35
250 California Baptist 20.8% -0.55 31 31
251 Manhattan 20.8% -0.55 31 29
252 Florida International 20.8% -0.55 31 30
253 St. Bonaventure 20.7% -0.56 30 32
254 Utah 20.7% -0.57 30 32
255 Lindenwood 20.7% -0.57 30 29
256 Michigan State 20.6% -0.59 30 34
257 Purdue Fort Wayne 20.6% -0.60 29 30
258 North Carolina A&T 20.5% -0.61 29 29
259 Eastern Illinois 20.5% -0.62 29 29
260 South Carolina Upstate 20.5% -0.63 28 30
261 Drexel 20.5% -0.63 28 31
262 North Florida 20.5% -0.64 28 29
263 Louisiana Tech 20.4% -0.65 28 30
264 New Hampshire 20.4% -0.65 27 28
265 Northern Arizona 20.4% -0.65 27 33
266 Stanford 20.4% -0.65 27 33
267 DePaul 20.4% -0.65 27 33
268 Cleveland State 20.4% -0.66 26 33
269 Cornell 20.4% -0.66 26 26
270 Dartmouth 20.3% -0.69 26 26
271 Ole Miss 20.3% -0.69 25 33
272 Ohio 20.2% -0.70 25 32
273 Valparaiso 20.2% -0.71 25 31
274 Washington State 20.2% -0.71 25 34
275 Binghamton 20.2% -0.71 24 29
276 Marist 20.2% -0.72 24 33
277 UMBC 20.2% -0.73 24 31
278 Western Michigan 20.1% -0.73 23 28
279 Middle Tennessee 20.1% -0.73 23 31
280 UCLA 20.0% -0.76 23 37
281 Charleston Southern 20.0% -0.77 23 29
282 South Florida 20.0% -0.77 22 32
283 Delaware State 20.0% -0.77 22 28
284 Columbia 19.9% -0.79 22 27
285 Stetson 19.9% -0.81 22 29
286 Boston College 19.8% -0.83 21 33
287 William & Mary 19.8% -0.83 21 31
288 East Texas A&M 19.8% -0.83 21 32
289 Vermont 19.8% -0.84 20 33
290 Rutgers 19.7% -0.85 20 34
291 Mercer 19.7% -0.85 20 31
292 UT Arlington 19.7% -0.87 20 29
293 Ohio State 19.6% -0.88 19 35
294 La Salle 19.6% -0.88 19 34
295 American University 19.6% -0.90 19 32
296 Saint Peter's 19.6% -0.90 19 31
297 Bellarmine 19.6% -0.90 18 30
298 McNeese 19.5% -0.90 18 33
299 Georgia Southern 19.5% -0.91 18 30
300 Robert Morris 19.5% -0.92 17 31
301 Sacramento State 19.5% -0.93 17 30
302 Elon 19.4% -0.94 17 30
303 Marquette 19.4% -0.94 17 36
304 St. John's 19.4% -0.95 16 33
305 Austin Peay 19.4% -0.96 16 28
306 South Carolina State 19.3% -0.98 16 30
307 Bucknell 19.3% -0.98 15 31
308 UC San Diego 19.3% -0.98 15 28
309 Butler 19.2% -1.01 15 32
310 Brown 19.1% -1.03 15 27
311 Pepperdine 19.1% -1.04 14 29
312 Mount St. Mary's 19.1% -1.04 14 32
313 Virginia Tech 19.1% -1.05 14 34
314 NJIT 19.1% -1.05 14 29
315 Northern Kentucky 19.1% -1.05 13 33
316 Minnesota 19.1% -1.05 13 31
317 App State 19.0% -1.06 13 29
318 Northeastern 19.0% -1.06 12 30
319 Northwestern State 19.0% -1.07 12 32
320 Oral Roberts 18.9% -1.09 12 31
321 North Dakota 18.9% -1.10 12 31
322 Fresno State 18.9% -1.10 11 30
323 Radford 18.8% -1.13 11 34
324 Liberty 18.8% -1.13 11 33
325 Iowa State 18.7% -1.15 10 33
326 Charlotte 18.7% -1.17 10 36
327 Sacred Heart 18.6% -1.18 10 32
328 Evansville 18.5% -1.22 10 32
329 San José State 18.5% -1.23 9 34
330 Duquesne 18.3% -1.27 9 33
331 Central Arkansas 18.3% -1.28 9 30
332 Canisius 18.3% -1.28 9 29
333 Marshall 18.3% -1.29 8 31
334 NC State 18.2% -1.29 8 34
335 Loyola Maryland 18.2% -1.29 8 31
336 Cincinnati 18.2% -1.29 7 35
337 UC Riverside 18.2% -1.30 7 33
338 Colgate 18.1% -1.32 7 34
339 Nebraska 18.0% -1.35 7 32
340 Lipscomb 18.0% -1.35 6 30
341 Wright State 17.9% -1.40 6 31
342 Notre Dame 17.8% -1.43 6 32
343 Bradley 17.8% -1.43 6 34
344 Nicholls 17.7% -1.44 5 27
345 South Carolina 17.7% -1.44 5 32
346 Belmont 17.6% -1.47 5 31
347 Jacksonville 17.6% -1.48 4 26
348 Wisconsin 17.3% -1.58 4 35
349 Tulsa 17.3% -1.58 4 30
350 Wagner 17.2% -1.60 4 26
351 Missouri State 17.1% -1.64 3 31
352 Navy 16.7% -1.73 3 30
353 Maine 16.6% -1.78 3 28
354 Central Connecticut 16.5% -1.79 2 32
355 Georgia Tech 16.3% -1.85 2 31
356 Holy Cross 16.0% -1.95 2 30
357 Eastern Kentucky 15.9% -1.97 2 34
358 VMI 15.9% -1.98 1 29
359 Hartford 15.9% -1.99 1 25
360 Penn State 15.7% -2.03 1 37
361 Hofstra 15.5% -2.10 1 34
362 South Alabama 15.4% -2.11 0 33
363 Lafayette 15.3% -2.15 0 34