I have got the sharpest knife, so I get the biggest slice. "Revolution Rock" - The Clash

Game Outcomes

Each point is a completed game — x: home team's season-to-date value entering the game, y: away team's. home win home loss

Weak standalone predictor of the winner.

Based on 5499 of 5721 completed games where both teams entered with a season-to-date value.

Team Distribution

Season-to-date value for every team, with a density curve.

min 61.9% max 82.0% mean 71.6% std 3.7% (n=363)

Team Rankings

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# Team Free Throw Percentage z Pctl GP
1 Villanova 82.0% +2.83 100 34
2 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 80.1% +2.31 100 31
3 South Dakota State 79.5% +2.14 99 31
4 Miami (OH) 79.4% +2.11 99 29
5 Nevada 79.4% +2.11 99 32
6 Illinois State 79.3% +2.08 99 32
7 Montana 78.9% +1.99 98 30
8 Coastal Carolina 78.8% +1.96 98 28
9 Clemson 78.5% +1.87 98 34
10 Miami 78.4% +1.85 98 37
11 Creighton 78.3% +1.83 97 37
12 St. Thomas-Minnesota 78.3% +1.81 97 31
13 Oral Roberts 78.1% +1.77 97 31
14 Youngstown State 78.1% +1.76 96 32
15 Oakland 78.1% +1.76 96 31
16 Omaha 78.1% +1.75 96 31
17 Tulane 77.7% +1.65 96 31
18 Fresno State 77.7% +1.64 95 30
19 Detroit Mercy 77.2% +1.52 95 32
20 Idaho 77.1% +1.49 95 30
21 Bellarmine 77.1% +1.49 94 30
22 UCF 77.1% +1.49 94 34
23 Jacksonville 77.0% +1.48 94 26
24 Toledo 77.0% +1.47 94 34
25 Drake 76.9% +1.45 93 34
26 Stetson 76.9% +1.44 93 29
27 Indiana State 76.9% +1.44 93 35
28 San Diego 76.8% +1.41 93 29
29 North Texas 76.7% +1.37 92 36
30 Duke 76.6% +1.36 92 36
31 Utah State 76.6% +1.35 92 34
32 Eastern Michigan 76.5% +1.33 91 30
33 Lipscomb 76.3% +1.27 91 30
34 Notre Dame 76.3% +1.27 91 32
35 Weber State 76.2% +1.26 91 31
36 South Dakota 76.1% +1.22 90 29
37 UConn 76.1% +1.21 90 39
38 Michigan State 75.9% +1.18 90 34
39 Texas A&M 75.9% +1.17 90 35
40 Stonehill 75.9% +1.16 89 30
41 Pittsburgh 75.9% +1.16 89 36
42 Missouri 75.8% +1.14 89 35
43 Fairleigh Dickinson 75.8% +1.13 88 35
44 Montana State 75.8% +1.13 88 33
45 VMI 75.8% +1.13 88 29
46 Temple 75.7% +1.11 88 32
47 Northwestern 75.7% +1.11 87 34
48 Cal State Bakersfield 75.7% +1.10 87 31
49 Akron 75.5% +1.04 87 31
50 Norfolk State 75.4% +1.04 86 29
51 Oregon State 75.4% +1.03 86 31
52 Eastern Washington 75.4% +1.03 86 33
53 The Citadel 75.3% +0.99 86 31
54 Stony Brook 75.2% +0.98 85 31
55 Central Arkansas 75.1% +0.95 85 30
56 Samford 75.1% +0.94 85 28
57 Charlotte 75.1% +0.93 85 36
58 Lehigh 75.1% +0.93 84 28
59 Incarnate Word 75.0% +0.93 84 28
60 Davidson 75.0% +0.93 84 31
61 Syracuse 74.9% +0.88 83 32
62 Washington 74.9% +0.88 83 32
63 Kansas State 74.8% +0.87 83 36
64 Northern Colorado 74.8% +0.87 83 31
65 Texas 74.8% +0.87 82 38
66 UMBC 74.7% +0.84 82 31
67 Memphis 74.7% +0.84 82 35
68 Winthrop 74.7% +0.82 81 30
69 Cal Poly 74.6% +0.82 81 31
70 San Francisco 74.6% +0.82 81 33
71 Hawai'i 74.6% +0.80 81 32
72 Charleston 74.6% +0.80 80 34
73 George Washington 74.6% +0.80 80 31
74 Wake Forest 74.6% +0.80 80 33
75 USC 74.5% +0.79 80 33
76 Northern Arizona 74.5% +0.78 79 33
77 Wright State 74.5% +0.77 79 31
78 Portland 74.5% +0.77 79 31
79 Richmond 74.5% +0.77 78 33
80 Baylor 74.4% +0.77 78 34
81 Purdue 74.4% +0.77 78 35
82 Rhode Island 74.4% +0.76 78 31
83 SE Louisiana 74.4% +0.76 77 29
84 West Virginia 74.3% +0.72 77 34
85 Hofstra 74.2% +0.71 77 34
86 Providence 74.2% +0.70 77 33
87 Colorado State 74.2% +0.70 76 32
88 North Carolina 74.2% +0.69 76 33
89 Pennsylvania 74.1% +0.69 76 29
90 Fordham 74.1% +0.68 75 33
91 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 74.1% +0.68 75 27
92 Milwaukee 74.1% +0.67 75 31
93 Murray State 74.1% +0.66 75 31
94 Louisville 74.1% +0.66 74 32
95 Austin Peay 74.0% +0.66 74 28
96 UMass Lowell 74.0% +0.66 74 32
97 UAB 74.0% +0.65 73 38
98 UC San Diego 74.0% +0.64 73 28
99 UTSA 74.0% +0.64 73 30
100 Ohio State 73.9% +0.63 73 35
101 Penn State 73.9% +0.63 72 37
102 DePaul 73.9% +0.63 72 33
103 UNC Wilmington 73.9% +0.63 72 32
104 Rice 73.9% +0.61 72 32
105 Butler 73.9% +0.61 71 32
106 Utah Valley 73.8% +0.60 71 34
107 New Mexico 73.8% +0.60 71 33
108 Cal State Northridge 73.8% +0.59 70 30
109 Iowa 73.8% +0.59 70 33
110 Little Rock 73.7% +0.57 70 29
111 Florida Gulf Coast 73.7% +0.56 70 31
112 Boise State 73.7% +0.56 69 33
113 Ohio 73.7% +0.56 69 32
114 Siena 73.6% +0.55 69 32
115 UC Santa Barbara 73.6% +0.55 69 33
116 SIU Edwardsville 73.6% +0.55 68 30
117 Mount St. Mary's 73.6% +0.55 68 32
118 Boston University 73.6% +0.54 68 30
119 Furman 73.6% +0.53 67 33
120 Virginia Tech 73.5% +0.52 67 34
121 Bryant 73.5% +0.52 67 28
122 Oklahoma 73.5% +0.51 67 32
123 Rider 73.5% +0.50 66 29
124 Canisius 73.4% +0.50 66 29
125 Delaware 73.4% +0.48 66 32
126 Idaho State 73.3% +0.47 65 30
127 Houston 73.3% +0.45 65 37
128 Iona 73.2% +0.43 65 35
129 Maryland 73.2% +0.43 65 35
130 Portland State 73.2% +0.42 64 29
131 Wofford 73.2% +0.42 64 30
132 Lindenwood 73.1% +0.41 64 29
133 Southern Miss 73.1% +0.41 64 30
134 UCLA 73.1% +0.39 63 37
135 UNLV 72.9% +0.36 63 31
136 Morehead State 72.9% +0.36 63 30
137 Charleston Southern 72.9% +0.35 62 29
138 UAlbany 72.9% +0.35 62 29
139 Abilene Christian 72.9% +0.34 62 26
140 Southern Utah 72.8% +0.33 62 33
141 UC Irvine 72.8% +0.33 61 33
142 Pacific 72.7% +0.30 61 31
143 Georgia 72.7% +0.29 61 32
144 Houston Christian 72.7% +0.29 60 29
145 Saint Louis 72.7% +0.28 60 32
146 Denver 72.6% +0.28 60 30
147 Chicago State 72.6% +0.28 60 27
148 Florida State 72.6% +0.28 59 32
149 Belmont 72.5% +0.25 59 31
150 BYU 72.5% +0.25 59 32
151 Alabama 72.5% +0.25 59 37
152 Valparaiso 72.5% +0.24 58 31
153 Boston College 72.5% +0.23 58 33
154 San Diego State 72.5% +0.23 58 38
155 Texas State 72.4% +0.21 57 32
156 Robert Morris 72.4% +0.21 57 31
157 Western Michigan 72.3% +0.20 57 28
158 Florida International 72.3% +0.20 57 30
159 Kent State 72.3% +0.20 56 33
160 California 72.3% +0.18 56 32
161 Southern 72.3% +0.17 56 30
162 Queens University 72.2% +0.17 56 30
163 NC State 72.2% +0.17 55 34
164 Maine 72.2% +0.16 55 28
165 Texas Tech 72.2% +0.16 55 32
166 Air Force 72.2% +0.16 54 32
167 Southern Illinois 72.2% +0.16 54 32
168 Fairfield 72.2% +0.15 54 30
169 LSU 72.2% +0.15 54 33
170 Alcorn State 72.1% +0.13 53 32
171 Georgia State 72.1% +0.12 53 28
172 Florida Atlantic 72.0% +0.12 53 37
173 Niagara 72.0% +0.11 52 30
174 Kansas 72.0% +0.10 52 36
175 North Florida 72.0% +0.09 52 29
176 Coppin State 71.9% +0.07 52 32
177 Bucknell 71.8% +0.06 51 31
178 Louisiana Tech 71.8% +0.06 51 30
179 Stephen F. Austin 71.8% +0.06 51 29
180 Marquette 71.8% +0.04 51 36
181 Georgetown 71.8% +0.04 50 32
182 Purdue Fort Wayne 71.7% +0.03 50 30
183 Liberty 71.7% +0.02 50 33
184 Florida 71.7% +0.02 49 33
185 UT Martin 71.6% +0.00 49 29
186 Cornell 71.6% -0.00 49 26
187 Wichita State 71.6% -0.00 49 32
188 Longwood 71.6% -0.00 48 30
189 Chattanooga 71.6% -0.00 48 32
190 Massachusetts 71.6% -0.01 48 31
191 Washington State 71.6% -0.01 48 34
192 Binghamton 71.6% -0.02 47 29
193 Tennessee Tech 71.5% -0.02 47 30
194 Kansas City 71.5% -0.02 47 30
195 Maryland Eastern Shore 71.5% -0.03 46 27
196 Pepperdine 71.5% -0.04 46 29
197 North Dakota State 71.5% -0.04 46 31
198 Grand Canyon 71.5% -0.04 46 33
199 UNC Greensboro 71.4% -0.05 45 30
200 Howard 71.4% -0.07 45 32
201 Seattle U 71.4% -0.07 45 30
202 Wyoming 71.3% -0.09 44 30
203 Princeton 71.2% -0.10 44 30
204 Vanderbilt 71.2% -0.12 44 37
205 Indiana 71.1% -0.14 44 35
206 Lamar 71.1% -0.14 43 28
207 Columbia 71.1% -0.15 43 27
208 North Carolina Central 71.1% -0.15 43 26
209 Michigan 71.1% -0.15 43 34
210 Troy 71.0% -0.15 42 30
211 Xavier 71.0% -0.16 42 37
212 UC Davis 71.0% -0.18 42 30
213 Southeast Missouri State 70.9% -0.18 41 33
214 Central Connecticut 70.9% -0.18 41 32
215 Tarleton State 70.9% -0.19 41 30
216 Cincinnati 70.9% -0.20 41 35
217 UL Monroe 70.9% -0.21 40 29
218 Bowling Green 70.8% -0.21 40 29
219 New Orleans 70.8% -0.22 40 30
220 Towson 70.8% -0.22 40 33
221 Utah 70.8% -0.22 39 32
222 Tennessee 70.8% -0.23 39 36
223 Arizona 70.8% -0.23 39 35
224 Western Kentucky 70.8% -0.23 38 31
225 Northern Kentucky 70.8% -0.24 38 33
226 Sacramento State 70.7% -0.24 38 30
227 Western Carolina 70.6% -0.27 38 31
228 Kentucky 70.6% -0.28 37 34
229 Navy 70.6% -0.28 37 30
230 Buffalo 70.5% -0.29 37 30
231 Elon 70.5% -0.30 36 30
232 North Alabama 70.5% -0.30 36 30
233 Alabama State 70.5% -0.31 36 30
234 Florida A&M 70.5% -0.32 36 27
235 Central Michigan 70.4% -0.33 35 29
236 St. Bonaventure 70.3% -0.35 35 32
237 Saint Joseph's 70.3% -0.35 35 33
238 Virginia 70.3% -0.36 35 33
239 Vermont 70.3% -0.36 34 33
240 Santa Clara 70.3% -0.36 34 32
241 Utah Tech 70.3% -0.36 34 30
242 Jacksonville State 70.2% -0.37 33 28
243 Green Bay 70.2% -0.38 33 32
244 American University 70.1% -0.41 33 32
245 James Madison 70.1% -0.42 33 30
246 Georgia Southern 70.0% -0.43 32 30
247 Rutgers 70.0% -0.43 32 34
248 East Texas A&M 70.0% -0.44 32 32
249 St. Francis Brooklyn 70.0% -0.44 31 28
250 St. John's 69.9% -0.45 31 33
251 TCU 69.9% -0.46 31 35
252 Saint Francis 69.9% -0.46 31 29
253 Western Illinois 69.9% -0.46 30 27
254 Northern Iowa 69.9% -0.46 30 31
255 Dayton 69.9% -0.47 30 34
256 Campbell 69.8% -0.49 30 32
257 Bethune-Cookman 69.8% -0.49 29 30
258 Yale 69.8% -0.49 29 28
259 Marshall 69.8% -0.50 29 31
260 Army 69.8% -0.50 28 31
261 Marist 69.8% -0.50 28 33
262 Arkansas 69.8% -0.51 28 36
263 Loyola Chicago 69.7% -0.51 28 31
264 Northwestern State 69.7% -0.53 27 32
265 UC Riverside 69.6% -0.54 27 33
266 VCU 69.6% -0.55 27 35
267 Dartmouth 69.6% -0.55 27 26
268 UT Rio Grande Valley 69.6% -0.55 26 28
269 Auburn 69.6% -0.56 26 34
270 Oregon 69.5% -0.57 26 36
271 Ole Miss 69.5% -0.57 25 33
272 Colorado 69.5% -0.58 25 35
273 Cal State Fullerton 69.5% -0.58 25 31
274 Georgia Tech 69.5% -0.59 25 31
275 Oklahoma State 69.4% -0.59 24 36
276 Duquesne 69.4% -0.61 24 33
277 Gonzaga 69.4% -0.61 24 36
278 Stanford 69.4% -0.61 23 33
279 La Salle 69.3% -0.62 23 34
280 Saint Mary's 69.3% -0.63 23 34
281 UNC Asheville 69.3% -0.63 23 33
282 IU Indianapolis 69.3% -0.63 22 30
283 Delaware State 69.3% -0.63 22 28
284 South Alabama 69.2% -0.66 22 33
285 North Dakota 69.1% -0.69 22 31
286 Mercer 69.1% -0.69 21 31
287 Wisconsin 69.1% -0.69 21 35
288 New Hampshire 69.0% -0.70 21 28
289 Arizona State 68.9% -0.74 20 36
290 Saint Peter's 68.8% -0.77 20 31
291 Ball State 68.8% -0.78 20 30
292 East Carolina 68.8% -0.78 20 33
293 Hampton 68.7% -0.78 19 31
294 Merrimack 68.7% -0.79 19 32
295 Cleveland State 68.6% -0.81 19 33
296 Radford 68.6% -0.81 19 34
297 Sam Houston 68.5% -0.83 18 30
298 Northeastern 68.5% -0.85 18 30
299 Middle Tennessee 68.5% -0.86 18 31
300 Seton Hall 68.4% -0.86 17 32
301 North Carolina A&T 68.3% -0.89 17 29
302 Tennessee State 68.3% -0.90 17 28
303 Wagner 68.3% -0.91 17 26
304 New Mexico State 68.3% -0.91 16 21
305 Drexel 68.1% -0.96 16 31
306 Morgan State 68.1% -0.97 16 27
307 Old Dominion 68.0% -0.98 15 30
308 Harvard 68.0% -0.99 15 26
309 Illinois 67.9% -1.01 15 33
310 San José State 67.9% -1.01 15 34
311 William & Mary 67.9% -1.02 14 31
312 Long Beach State 67.8% -1.05 14 31
313 Prairie View A&M 67.6% -1.08 14 30
314 Arkansas State 67.6% -1.10 14 30
315 Sacred Heart 67.5% -1.11 13 32
316 NJIT 67.5% -1.11 13 29
317 Jackson State 67.5% -1.13 13 33
318 SMU 67.4% -1.16 12 32
319 Southern Indiana 67.2% -1.20 12 30
320 Louisiana 67.1% -1.24 12 31
321 East Tennessee State 67.0% -1.24 12 30
322 Iowa State 67.0% -1.24 11 33
323 Loyola Marymount 67.0% -1.25 11 30
324 McNeese 66.8% -1.30 11 33
325 Monmouth 66.7% -1.35 10 33
326 Long Island University 66.6% -1.36 10 27
327 Mississippi Valley State 66.5% -1.39 10 32
328 Quinnipiac 66.5% -1.39 10 31
329 Colgate 66.3% -1.45 9 34
330 Texas Southern 66.3% -1.45 9 33
331 UT Arlington 66.3% -1.46 9 29
332 Kennesaw State 66.2% -1.47 9 32
333 South Carolina State 66.1% -1.49 8 30
334 Bradley 66.1% -1.50 8 34
335 South Carolina 66.1% -1.51 8 32
336 Manhattan 65.9% -1.56 7 29
337 California Baptist 65.8% -1.58 7 31
338 Hartford 65.7% -1.60 7 25
339 UIC 65.7% -1.61 7 31
340 Eastern Kentucky 65.4% -1.70 6 34
341 South Carolina Upstate 65.3% -1.71 6 30
342 George Mason 65.1% -1.76 6 33
343 South Florida 65.1% -1.77 6 32
344 App State 65.1% -1.78 5 29
345 Northern Illinois 64.8% -1.85 5 30
346 Mississippi State 64.7% -1.87 5 34
347 Tulsa 64.6% -1.91 4 30
348 Loyola Maryland 64.6% -1.91 4 31
349 Alabama A&M 64.5% -1.93 4 30
350 Brown 64.2% -2.01 4 27
351 Nicholls 64.1% -2.04 3 27
352 Nebraska 64.1% -2.05 3 32
353 Grambling 64.0% -2.06 3 31
354 Eastern Illinois 63.4% -2.24 2 29
355 Evansville 63.0% -2.35 2 32
356 UTEP 62.8% -2.39 2 30
357 High Point 62.8% -2.40 2 29
358 Holy Cross 62.7% -2.43 1 30
359 Lafayette 62.6% -2.45 1 34
360 Missouri State 62.6% -2.45 1 31
361 Gardner-Webb 62.5% -2.48 1 29
362 Presbyterian 62.0% -2.60 0 30
363 Minnesota 61.9% -2.64 0 31