Hmm, you're so pretty, not to talk to you would be a crime. "Baby, Baby" - The Vibrators

Game Outcomes

Each point is a completed game — x: home team's season-to-date value entering the game, y: away team's. home win home loss

Weak standalone predictor of the winner.

Based on 5499 of 5721 completed games where both teams entered with a season-to-date value.

Team Distribution

Season-to-date value for every team, with a density curve.

min 23.6% max 52.1% mean 37.3% std 5.0% (n=363)

Team Rankings

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# Team Three-Point Attempt Rate z Pctl GP
1 Chattanooga 52.1% +2.93 100 32
2 San Francisco 49.2% +2.36 100 33
3 Liberty 48.7% +2.26 99 33
4 Lafayette 48.4% +2.21 99 34
5 Cornell 48.0% +2.12 99 26
6 North Florida 47.8% +2.09 99 29
7 Villanova 47.8% +2.07 98 34
8 Charleston 47.3% +1.99 98 34
9 Alabama 47.2% +1.97 98 37
10 Penn State 47.1% +1.95 98 37
11 Purdue Fort Wayne 47.0% +1.93 97 30
12 Furman 46.7% +1.86 97 33
13 Southern Illinois 46.5% +1.83 97 32
14 Indiana State 46.0% +1.72 96 35
15 Oral Roberts 46.0% +1.72 96 31
16 Saint Joseph's 45.9% +1.71 96 33
17 Samford 45.6% +1.65 96 28
18 East Texas A&M 45.6% +1.64 95 32
19 Wyoming 45.5% +1.62 95 30
20 Portland 45.4% +1.60 95 31
21 Wake Forest 45.4% +1.60 94 33
22 Winthrop 44.9% +1.52 94 30
23 St. Thomas-Minnesota 44.9% +1.51 94 31
24 Florida Gulf Coast 44.9% +1.50 94 31
25 Baylor 44.9% +1.50 93 34
26 Air Force 44.8% +1.49 93 32
27 Seattle U 44.7% +1.46 93 30
28 North Dakota 44.5% +1.43 93 31
29 Stony Brook 44.4% +1.40 92 31
30 Coppin State 44.3% +1.39 92 32
31 Richmond 44.1% +1.35 92 33
32 VMI 44.1% +1.35 91 29
33 Eastern Washington 44.1% +1.34 91 33
34 Queens University 44.1% +1.34 91 30
35 Florida Atlantic 43.9% +1.31 91 37
36 Akron 43.9% +1.30 90 31
37 Stetson 43.8% +1.29 90 29
38 Merrimack 43.8% +1.29 90 32
39 Temple 43.6% +1.24 90 32
40 California Baptist 43.5% +1.24 89 31
41 Green Bay 43.5% +1.23 89 32
42 Jacksonville State 43.5% +1.22 89 28
43 Pittsburgh 43.4% +1.21 88 36
44 Vermont 43.4% +1.20 88 33
45 Washington State 43.4% +1.20 88 34
46 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 43.4% +1.20 88 27
47 UIC 43.3% +1.19 87 31
48 Missouri 43.2% +1.17 87 35
49 Missouri State 43.1% +1.16 87 31
50 Bellarmine 43.1% +1.15 86 30
51 Loyola Marymount 43.1% +1.14 86 30
52 Notre Dame 43.0% +1.13 86 32
53 Detroit Mercy 42.7% +1.07 86 32
54 Southern Indiana 42.6% +1.04 85 30
55 Tennessee Tech 42.5% +1.04 85 30
56 Tulsa 42.4% +1.01 85 30
57 Marist 42.4% +1.01 85 33
58 UCF 42.2% +0.96 84 34
59 Vanderbilt 42.2% +0.96 84 37
60 Rice 42.1% +0.96 84 32
61 Western Michigan 42.0% +0.94 83 28
62 Utah State 42.0% +0.93 83 34
63 Marquette 42.0% +0.92 83 36
64 Illinois 41.9% +0.91 83 33
65 Chicago State 41.8% +0.88 82 27
66 North Texas 41.7% +0.87 82 36
67 UConn 41.7% +0.87 82 39
68 Creighton 41.7% +0.87 81 37
69 Utah Tech 41.7% +0.86 81 30
70 Fordham 41.7% +0.86 81 33
71 Dartmouth 41.6% +0.85 81 26
72 East Carolina 41.6% +0.84 80 33
73 Belmont 41.5% +0.82 80 31
74 Western Carolina 41.4% +0.81 80 31
75 Charlotte 41.3% +0.78 80 36
76 Stonehill 41.3% +0.78 79 30
77 Central Arkansas 41.3% +0.78 79 30
78 UAlbany 41.2% +0.77 79 29
79 Louisiana Tech 41.1% +0.75 78 30
80 Miami (OH) 41.1% +0.75 78 29
81 Northwestern 41.0% +0.73 78 34
82 New Hampshire 41.0% +0.73 78 28
83 San José State 40.9% +0.72 77 34
84 Northern Kentucky 40.9% +0.72 77 33
85 South Carolina 40.9% +0.71 77 32
86 Troy 40.9% +0.70 77 30
87 Princeton 40.8% +0.69 76 30
88 Tennessee State 40.8% +0.69 76 28
89 Grand Canyon 40.7% +0.68 76 33
90 Fresno State 40.7% +0.68 75 30
91 Columbia 40.7% +0.67 75 27
92 Houston Christian 40.6% +0.66 75 29
93 Illinois State 40.6% +0.66 75 32
94 North Carolina A&T 40.4% +0.61 74 29
95 Elon 40.3% +0.60 74 30
96 Hartford 40.3% +0.60 74 25
97 Clemson 40.3% +0.59 73 34
98 Drexel 40.3% +0.59 73 31
99 Duquesne 40.3% +0.58 73 33
100 Wisconsin 40.2% +0.58 73 35
101 Loyola Chicago 40.2% +0.57 72 31
102 Canisius 40.1% +0.56 72 29
103 South Dakota 40.1% +0.56 72 29
104 Tennessee 40.1% +0.55 72 36
105 UNLV 40.0% +0.54 71 31
106 Southern 40.0% +0.53 71 30
107 Brown 39.9% +0.52 71 27
108 McNeese 39.9% +0.52 70 33
109 Southeast Missouri State 39.9% +0.51 70 33
110 Montana 39.8% +0.50 70 30
111 Idaho State 39.8% +0.50 70 30
112 Stanford 39.7% +0.48 69 33
113 Northern Colorado 39.6% +0.46 69 31
114 Virginia Tech 39.6% +0.46 69 34
115 Oakland 39.6% +0.46 69 31
116 Maryland Eastern Shore 39.6% +0.45 68 27
117 Jacksonville 39.5% +0.44 68 26
118 High Point 39.5% +0.43 68 29
119 BYU 39.5% +0.43 67 32
120 UMBC 39.4% +0.41 67 31
121 Arizona State 39.3% +0.40 67 36
122 Bradley 39.3% +0.39 67 34
123 Charleston Southern 39.3% +0.39 66 29
124 Cincinnati 39.2% +0.38 66 35
125 UC San Diego 39.2% +0.38 66 28
126 Morehead State 39.1% +0.36 65 30
127 Wofford 39.1% +0.36 65 30
128 Oregon 39.1% +0.36 65 36
129 Bryant 39.1% +0.36 65 28
130 UNC Greensboro 39.1% +0.35 64 30
131 Hofstra 39.1% +0.35 64 34
132 Oklahoma State 39.0% +0.33 64 36
133 LSU 38.9% +0.32 64 33
134 Loyola Maryland 38.9% +0.31 63 31
135 Georgia Tech 38.8% +0.30 63 31
136 Northern Iowa 38.8% +0.29 63 31
137 Pacific 38.8% +0.29 62 31
138 The Citadel 38.7% +0.27 62 31
139 Campbell 38.6% +0.26 62 32
140 George Mason 38.6% +0.26 62 33
141 Boston University 38.6% +0.26 61 30
142 UTSA 38.6% +0.25 61 30
143 Austin Peay 38.5% +0.24 61 28
144 Ohio 38.5% +0.23 60 32
145 Colorado State 38.4% +0.23 60 32
146 Purdue 38.4% +0.21 60 35
147 Kent State 38.3% +0.20 60 33
148 App State 38.3% +0.20 59 29
149 Pennsylvania 38.3% +0.19 59 29
150 South Dakota State 38.2% +0.18 59 31
151 Georgia 38.2% +0.18 59 32
152 Southern Utah 38.2% +0.18 58 33
153 Northern Arizona 38.2% +0.17 58 33
154 Milwaukee 38.2% +0.17 58 31
155 Northwestern State 38.1% +0.16 57 32
156 Central Michigan 38.1% +0.15 57 29
157 Tulane 38.1% +0.15 57 31
158 George Washington 38.0% +0.14 57 31
159 North Dakota State 38.0% +0.13 56 31
160 Coastal Carolina 37.9% +0.12 56 28
161 Army 37.9% +0.12 56 31
162 Houston 37.9% +0.12 56 37
163 DePaul 37.8% +0.10 55 33
164 Quinnipiac 37.8% +0.10 55 31
165 Boise State 37.8% +0.09 55 33
166 Southern Miss 37.8% +0.09 54 30
167 Lipscomb 37.8% +0.09 54 30
168 William & Mary 37.8% +0.09 54 31
169 Arizona 37.7% +0.08 54 35
170 Fairleigh Dickinson 37.7% +0.07 53 35
171 UC Riverside 37.7% +0.07 53 33
172 UL Monroe 37.6% +0.07 53 29
173 North Carolina 37.6% +0.06 52 33
174 Utah 37.6% +0.06 52 32
175 Kennesaw State 37.6% +0.06 52 32
176 Cal State Fullerton 37.5% +0.04 52 31
177 Nevada 37.5% +0.04 51 32
178 Iowa 37.5% +0.04 51 33
179 Western Illinois 37.5% +0.04 51 27
180 SIU Edwardsville 37.5% +0.03 51 30
181 South Alabama 37.5% +0.03 50 33
182 Weber State 37.4% +0.01 50 31
183 Oklahoma 37.4% +0.01 50 32
184 Michigan 37.3% -0.00 49 34
185 Dayton 37.3% -0.01 49 34
186 Northeastern 37.3% -0.01 49 30
187 UNC Asheville 37.3% -0.01 49 33
188 Wichita State 37.2% -0.01 48 32
189 Longwood 37.2% -0.02 48 30
190 NC State 37.1% -0.03 48 34
191 South Florida 37.1% -0.04 48 32
192 Hawai'i 37.1% -0.05 47 32
193 Oregon State 37.0% -0.05 47 31
194 Bucknell 37.0% -0.06 47 31
195 James Madison 37.0% -0.07 46 30
196 Sam Houston 37.0% -0.07 46 30
197 Marshall 36.9% -0.07 46 31
198 Maryland 36.9% -0.09 46 35
199 Northern Illinois 36.8% -0.10 45 30
200 Florida 36.8% -0.10 45 33
201 Texas Tech 36.8% -0.10 45 32
202 Ball State 36.8% -0.10 44 30
203 Saint Mary's 36.7% -0.12 44 34
204 Nebraska 36.7% -0.12 44 32
205 Washington 36.6% -0.13 44 32
206 Fairfield 36.6% -0.14 43 30
207 Harvard 36.6% -0.14 43 26
208 Davidson 36.6% -0.15 43 31
209 Robert Morris 36.6% -0.15 43 31
210 Drake 36.5% -0.15 42 34
211 Delaware 36.5% -0.16 42 32
212 Hampton 36.5% -0.17 42 31
213 Howard 36.5% -0.17 41 32
214 UT Martin 36.4% -0.17 41 29
215 San Diego 36.4% -0.18 41 29
216 New Mexico State 36.4% -0.18 41 21
217 Santa Clara 36.3% -0.20 40 32
218 Presbyterian 36.3% -0.20 40 30
219 West Virginia 36.3% -0.21 40 34
220 Valparaiso 36.2% -0.21 40 31
221 Idaho 36.2% -0.21 39 30
222 St. Bonaventure 36.2% -0.21 39 32
223 Western Kentucky 36.2% -0.23 39 31
224 Sacred Heart 36.1% -0.23 38 32
225 American University 36.1% -0.23 38 32
226 Portland State 36.1% -0.24 38 29
227 Kansas State 36.1% -0.24 38 36
228 Manhattan 36.1% -0.24 37 29
229 Navy 36.1% -0.24 37 30
230 Pepperdine 36.0% -0.26 37 29
231 Cal Poly 35.9% -0.28 36 31
232 Nicholls 35.9% -0.28 36 27
233 Butler 35.8% -0.30 36 32
234 Saint Francis 35.8% -0.30 36 29
235 Florida International 35.8% -0.31 35 30
236 Louisville 35.8% -0.31 35 32
237 Eastern Kentucky 35.7% -0.32 35 34
238 Central Connecticut 35.7% -0.32 35 32
239 Lindenwood 35.6% -0.33 34 29
240 La Salle 35.6% -0.33 34 34
241 Virginia 35.6% -0.33 34 33
242 Kansas City 35.5% -0.35 33 30
243 Sacramento State 35.5% -0.35 33 30
244 Minnesota 35.5% -0.36 33 31
245 Bowling Green 35.5% -0.36 33 29
246 Florida A&M 35.5% -0.36 32 27
247 Middle Tennessee 35.5% -0.37 32 31
248 Toledo 35.4% -0.37 32 34
249 Wagner 35.3% -0.39 31 26
250 Maine 35.3% -0.40 31 28
251 Duke 35.3% -0.40 31 36
252 Saint Peter's 35.3% -0.41 31 31
253 Auburn 35.2% -0.42 30 34
254 Norfolk State 35.0% -0.45 30 29
255 UC Davis 35.0% -0.46 30 30
256 Youngstown State 35.0% -0.47 30 32
257 UT Rio Grande Valley 34.9% -0.47 29 28
258 East Tennessee State 34.9% -0.49 29 30
259 South Carolina Upstate 34.8% -0.51 29 30
260 Yale 34.7% -0.51 28 28
261 North Carolina Central 34.7% -0.51 28 26
262 UT Arlington 34.7% -0.52 28 29
263 Ole Miss 34.7% -0.52 28 33
264 North Alabama 34.7% -0.53 27 30
265 Colorado 34.6% -0.54 27 35
266 Mississippi State 34.6% -0.55 27 34
267 Siena 34.5% -0.55 27 32
268 Texas 34.5% -0.56 26 38
269 Colgate 34.5% -0.56 26 34
270 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 34.5% -0.56 26 31
271 Towson 34.5% -0.56 25 33
272 Texas A&M 34.5% -0.56 25 35
273 Niagara 34.4% -0.58 25 30
274 Florida State 34.4% -0.58 25 32
275 Miami 34.2% -0.61 24 37
276 SE Louisiana 34.1% -0.63 24 29
277 UNC Wilmington 34.0% -0.65 24 32
278 Jackson State 34.0% -0.66 23 33
279 South Carolina State 34.0% -0.66 23 30
280 Buffalo 34.0% -0.66 23 30
281 San Diego State 33.9% -0.67 23 38
282 Mount St. Mary's 33.9% -0.68 22 32
283 Georgia Southern 33.9% -0.68 22 30
284 Iowa State 33.8% -0.69 22 33
285 Kansas 33.8% -0.70 22 36
286 Prairie View A&M 33.7% -0.72 21 30
287 SMU 33.7% -0.72 21 32
288 Gardner-Webb 33.6% -0.73 21 29
289 Evansville 33.6% -0.74 20 32
290 Lehigh 33.6% -0.74 20 28
291 Eastern Michigan 33.5% -0.75 20 30
292 Arkansas State 33.5% -0.76 20 30
293 Montana State 33.4% -0.77 19 33
294 Abilene Christian 33.4% -0.78 19 26
295 Alabama State 33.3% -0.79 19 30
296 St. Francis Brooklyn 33.1% -0.84 19 28
297 Bethune-Cookman 33.1% -0.84 18 30
298 Michigan State 33.0% -0.85 18 34
299 USC 33.0% -0.85 18 33
300 Cal State Northridge 32.9% -0.87 17 30
301 Utah Valley 32.8% -0.89 17 34
302 Murray State 32.7% -0.91 17 31
303 Alabama A&M 32.7% -0.92 17 30
304 VCU 32.7% -0.92 16 35
305 Incarnate Word 32.6% -0.94 16 28
306 Seton Hall 32.6% -0.94 16 32
307 NJIT 32.5% -0.95 15 29
308 Gonzaga 32.5% -0.95 15 36
309 Saint Louis 32.5% -0.96 15 32
310 UC Irvine 32.2% -1.02 15 33
311 Iona 32.0% -1.06 14 35
312 Holy Cross 32.0% -1.06 14 30
313 Radford 31.9% -1.07 14 34
314 Providence 31.9% -1.08 14 33
315 Louisiana 31.7% -1.11 13 31
316 Ohio State 31.7% -1.12 13 35
317 UAB 31.5% -1.15 13 38
318 Boston College 31.5% -1.15 12 33
319 Rhode Island 31.3% -1.19 12 31
320 Xavier 31.2% -1.22 12 37
321 UMass Lowell 31.0% -1.25 12 32
322 Georgetown 31.0% -1.26 11 32
323 Delaware State 30.9% -1.26 11 28
324 California 30.9% -1.27 11 32
325 Lamar 30.6% -1.33 10 28
326 Georgia State 30.6% -1.34 10 28
327 Mercer 30.5% -1.35 10 31
328 Rutgers 30.2% -1.41 10 34
329 Binghamton 30.1% -1.44 9 29
330 Kentucky 30.0% -1.46 9 34
331 UTEP 30.0% -1.46 9 30
332 Little Rock 29.9% -1.47 9 29
333 TCU 29.9% -1.47 8 35
334 Old Dominion 29.8% -1.49 8 30
335 Morgan State 29.8% -1.49 8 27
336 Massachusetts 29.7% -1.51 7 31
337 Alcorn State 29.7% -1.52 7 32
338 Omaha 29.4% -1.57 7 31
339 UC Santa Barbara 29.1% -1.63 7 33
340 Memphis 29.1% -1.64 6 35
341 New Orleans 29.0% -1.64 6 30
342 Syracuse 29.0% -1.64 6 32
343 UCLA 29.0% -1.65 6 37
344 IU Indianapolis 28.9% -1.68 5 30
345 Stephen F. Austin 28.7% -1.71 5 29
346 Wright State 28.2% -1.82 5 31
347 Texas Southern 28.1% -1.84 4 33
348 Arkansas 27.7% -1.90 4 36
349 Grambling 27.7% -1.91 4 31
350 Eastern Illinois 27.7% -1.92 4 29
351 Mississippi Valley State 27.6% -1.93 3 32
352 St. John's 27.0% -2.05 3 33
353 New Mexico 26.7% -2.12 3 33
354 Indiana 26.6% -2.12 2 35
355 Cleveland State 26.5% -2.14 2 33
356 Denver 26.0% -2.24 2 30
357 Rider 25.8% -2.29 2 29
358 Texas State 25.4% -2.36 1 32
359 Monmouth 25.1% -2.42 1 33
360 Cal State Bakersfield 24.6% -2.52 1 31
361 Tarleton State 24.5% -2.54 1 30
362 Long Island University 24.3% -2.58 0 27
363 Long Beach State 23.6% -2.72 0 31