Hallelujah, here she comes. "Skateaway" - Dire Straits
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Effective Field Goal Percentage

Field-goal shooting that credits a 3-pointer as 1.5 made shots.

(FGM + 0.5×3PM) ÷ FGA. A made three is worth 1.5 times a made two, so it counts as 1.5 makes; plain FG% undervalues teams that shoot a lot of threes.

Higher is better  ·  league avg 50.3%  ·  as of 2023-04-04

Game Outcomes

Each point is a completed game — x: home team's season-to-date value entering the game, y: away team's. home win home loss

Predicts home win: AUC 0.65 (team entering with the better value wins 62% of games)

Based on 5499 of 5721 completed games where both teams entered with a season-to-date value.

Team Distribution

Season-to-date value for every team, with a density curve.

min 42.1% max 58.2% mean 50.3% std 2.7% (n=363)

Team Rankings

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# Team Effective Field Goal Percentage z Pctl GP
1 Colgate 58.2% +2.92 100 34
2 Gonzaga 57.6% +2.68 100 36
3 Arizona 56.5% +2.28 99 35
4 Indiana State 56.4% +2.25 99 35
5 Toledo 56.3% +2.22 99 34
6 Eastern Washington 56.2% +2.17 99 33
7 Marquette 56.0% +2.09 98 36
8 Utah State 55.5% +1.90 98 34
9 Oral Roberts 55.4% +1.90 98 31
10 Penn State 55.4% +1.90 98 37
11 Liberty 55.4% +1.88 97 33
12 Belmont 55.3% +1.85 97 31
13 Xavier 55.2% +1.82 97 37
14 Winthrop 55.1% +1.79 96 30
15 Hofstra 55.1% +1.77 96 34
16 Charlotte 55.1% +1.76 96 36
17 Missouri 55.0% +1.73 96 35
18 Furman 55.0% +1.71 95 33
19 Colorado State 54.8% +1.67 95 32
20 Vermont 54.8% +1.67 95 33
21 Cornell 54.7% +1.63 94 26
22 Youngstown State 54.7% +1.60 94 32
23 American University 54.4% +1.51 94 32
24 Florida Atlantic 54.3% +1.47 94 37
25 Miami 54.3% +1.46 93 37
26 Wake Forest 54.2% +1.45 93 33
27 Creighton 54.2% +1.44 93 37
28 Air Force 54.2% +1.43 93 32
29 Clemson 54.1% +1.39 92 34
30 UC Santa Barbara 54.1% +1.38 92 33
31 Virginia Tech 54.0% +1.37 92 34
32 Chattanooga 53.9% +1.34 91 32
33 UConn 53.9% +1.34 91 39
34 Army 53.8% +1.30 91 31
35 Montana 53.8% +1.28 91 30
36 Portland 53.7% +1.25 90 31
37 Lipscomb 53.7% +1.25 90 30
38 UNC Asheville 53.6% +1.22 90 33
39 San Francisco 53.6% +1.22 90 33
40 Samford 53.5% +1.19 89 28
41 UMass Lowell 53.5% +1.19 89 32
42 Stetson 53.5% +1.19 89 29
43 Wright State 53.5% +1.18 88 31
44 Indiana 53.5% +1.18 88 35
45 North Florida 53.3% +1.10 88 29
46 Pennsylvania 53.3% +1.10 88 29
47 Texas 53.3% +1.10 87 38
48 Baylor 53.2% +1.07 87 34
49 Utah Tech 53.2% +1.05 87 30
50 Loyola Marymount 53.1% +1.03 86 30
51 Memphis 53.0% +1.00 86 35
52 Rice 53.0% +1.00 86 32
53 George Washington 53.0% +1.00 86 31
54 Ball State 53.0% +0.99 85 30
55 Dayton 53.0% +0.99 85 34
56 Loyola Chicago 52.9% +0.96 85 31
57 Drake 52.9% +0.94 85 34
58 Yale 52.8% +0.92 84 28
59 South Alabama 52.8% +0.92 84 33
60 Louisiana 52.8% +0.92 84 31
61 Grand Canyon 52.8% +0.91 83 33
62 New Orleans 52.7% +0.88 83 30
63 Bradley 52.7% +0.88 83 34
64 Pacific 52.7% +0.88 83 31
65 Kennesaw State 52.7% +0.87 82 32
66 Campbell 52.7% +0.87 82 32
67 Kansas 52.6% +0.85 82 36
68 New Mexico 52.6% +0.85 81 33
69 Marshall 52.6% +0.85 81 31
70 Pittsburgh 52.5% +0.80 81 36
71 Stanford 52.4% +0.78 81 33
72 East Texas A&M 52.4% +0.77 80 32
73 Northern Colorado 52.4% +0.77 80 31
74 Tulane 52.4% +0.77 80 31
75 Santa Clara 52.4% +0.76 80 32
76 Ohio 52.4% +0.76 79 32
77 Oklahoma 52.4% +0.76 79 32
78 Wofford 52.3% +0.74 79 30
79 Kansas State 52.3% +0.74 78 36
80 Denver 52.3% +0.74 78 30
81 Houston 52.3% +0.73 78 37
82 Texas Tech 52.3% +0.72 78 32
83 Princeton 52.2% +0.69 77 30
84 Norfolk State 52.2% +0.68 77 29
85 Northern Illinois 52.2% +0.68 77 30
86 Florida International 52.2% +0.67 77 30
87 Saint Louis 52.1% +0.67 76 32
88 Alabama 52.1% +0.66 76 37
89 Ohio State 52.0% +0.63 76 35
90 Pepperdine 52.0% +0.62 75 29
91 Saint Mary's 52.0% +0.62 75 34
92 Idaho 52.0% +0.61 75 30
93 Southern Utah 52.0% +0.61 75 33
94 Miami (OH) 52.0% +0.61 74 29
95 Notre Dame 52.0% +0.60 74 32
96 VCU 52.0% +0.60 74 35
97 Saint Francis 51.9% +0.58 73 29
98 Bryant 51.9% +0.57 73 28
99 Akron 51.9% +0.57 73 31
100 George Mason 51.9% +0.56 73 33
101 St. Thomas-Minnesota 51.8% +0.56 72 31
102 Purdue 51.8% +0.56 72 35
103 Howard 51.8% +0.55 72 32
104 Nebraska 51.7% +0.52 72 32
105 South Dakota State 51.7% +0.52 71 31
106 Bellarmine 51.7% +0.51 71 30
107 Utah Valley 51.7% +0.51 71 34
108 Michigan State 51.7% +0.50 70 34
109 Iowa 51.7% +0.50 70 33
110 North Dakota State 51.7% +0.50 70 31
111 Southern Illinois 51.7% +0.49 70 32
112 Boise State 51.6% +0.49 69 33
113 Wyoming 51.6% +0.49 69 30
114 Iona 51.6% +0.48 69 35
115 Michigan 51.6% +0.46 69 34
116 Villanova 51.5% +0.45 68 34
117 BYU 51.5% +0.44 68 32
118 Syracuse 51.5% +0.44 68 32
119 West Virginia 51.5% +0.44 67 34
120 James Madison 51.5% +0.44 67 30
121 UC Irvine 51.5% +0.42 67 33
122 NC State 51.5% +0.42 67 34
123 Stephen F. Austin 51.5% +0.42 66 29
124 Navy 51.5% +0.41 66 30
125 Tennessee Tech 51.4% +0.41 66 30
126 Milwaukee 51.4% +0.40 65 31
127 Houston Christian 51.4% +0.40 65 29
128 Detroit Mercy 51.4% +0.39 65 32
129 Illinois 51.4% +0.38 65 33
130 UMBC 51.3% +0.37 64 31
131 Bucknell 51.3% +0.37 64 31
132 Loyola Maryland 51.3% +0.37 64 31
133 Northwestern State 51.3% +0.36 64 32
134 Cincinnati 51.3% +0.35 63 35
135 Radford 51.3% +0.35 63 34
136 Northern Iowa 51.3% +0.35 63 31
137 Fairleigh Dickinson 51.3% +0.34 62 35
138 USC 51.2% +0.33 62 33
139 North Texas 51.2% +0.33 62 36
140 Florida Gulf Coast 51.2% +0.33 62 31
141 Queens University 51.2% +0.33 61 30
142 UT Rio Grande Valley 51.2% +0.32 61 28
143 Richmond 51.2% +0.31 61 33
144 Virginia 51.2% +0.31 60 33
145 Middle Tennessee 51.2% +0.30 60 31
146 Providence 51.1% +0.30 60 33
147 Oregon 51.1% +0.28 60 36
148 Charleston 51.1% +0.28 59 34
149 Duke 51.1% +0.28 59 36
150 San Diego 51.1% +0.28 59 29
151 Duquesne 51.1% +0.27 59 33
152 UCLA 51.1% +0.27 58 37
153 Towson 51.1% +0.27 58 33
154 North Dakota 51.0% +0.25 58 31
155 Maine 51.0% +0.24 57 28
156 Coppin State 51.0% +0.24 57 32
157 Montana State 51.0% +0.23 57 33
158 SE Louisiana 50.9% +0.23 57 29
159 North Carolina Central 50.9% +0.22 56 26
160 Arkansas 50.9% +0.22 56 36
161 Louisiana Tech 50.9% +0.21 56 30
162 Tennessee State 50.9% +0.21 56 28
163 Southern Miss 50.9% +0.20 55 30
164 Stonehill 50.9% +0.19 55 30
165 Weber State 50.8% +0.19 55 31
166 Maryland 50.8% +0.18 54 35
167 Sacramento State 50.8% +0.18 54 30
168 Idaho State 50.8% +0.17 54 30
169 Kent State 50.8% +0.17 54 33
170 South Florida 50.8% +0.17 53 32
171 Brown 50.7% +0.15 53 27
172 Wichita State 50.7% +0.15 53 32
173 Gardner-Webb 50.7% +0.14 52 29
174 Nevada 50.7% +0.14 52 32
175 North Alabama 50.7% +0.14 52 30
176 Sam Houston 50.7% +0.13 52 30
177 South Carolina Upstate 50.7% +0.12 51 30
178 Kentucky 50.6% +0.11 51 34
179 Jacksonville 50.6% +0.10 51 26
180 UNC Greensboro 50.6% +0.10 51 30
181 Purdue Fort Wayne 50.5% +0.07 50 30
182 UC Riverside 50.5% +0.07 50 33
183 East Tennessee State 50.5% +0.06 50 30
184 Jacksonville State 50.5% +0.06 49 28
185 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 50.5% +0.05 49 31
186 Bowling Green 50.5% +0.05 49 29
187 Washington State 50.4% +0.04 49 34
188 UT Martin 50.4% +0.03 48 29
189 Northern Arizona 50.4% +0.03 48 33
190 Niagara 50.3% -0.01 48 30
191 Nicholls 50.3% -0.01 48 27
192 UCF 50.3% -0.02 47 34
193 Southeast Missouri State 50.3% -0.02 47 33
194 UAB 50.3% -0.02 47 38
195 Charleston Southern 50.3% -0.03 46 29
196 Southern Indiana 50.2% -0.03 46 30
197 Longwood 50.2% -0.04 46 30
198 High Point 50.2% -0.05 46 29
199 Illinois State 50.2% -0.05 45 32
200 New Mexico State 50.2% -0.06 45 21
201 San José State 50.2% -0.07 45 34
202 Saint Joseph's 50.2% -0.07 44 33
203 Missouri State 50.1% -0.07 44 31
204 Western Illinois 50.1% -0.09 44 27
205 South Dakota 50.1% -0.09 44 29
206 Davidson 50.1% -0.10 43 31
207 Dartmouth 50.0% -0.11 43 26
208 TCU 50.0% -0.13 43 35
209 Quinnipiac 49.9% -0.15 43 31
210 Iowa State 49.9% -0.15 42 33
211 Tennessee 49.9% -0.17 42 36
212 Grambling 49.9% -0.17 42 31
213 UC Davis 49.8% -0.19 41 30
214 Lehigh 49.8% -0.20 41 28
215 DePaul 49.7% -0.24 41 33
216 Temple 49.7% -0.24 41 32
217 IU Indianapolis 49.7% -0.25 40 30
218 Vanderbilt 49.6% -0.27 40 37
219 Delaware 49.6% -0.27 40 32
220 Western Kentucky 49.6% -0.27 40 31
221 Portland State 49.6% -0.28 39 29
222 UC San Diego 49.6% -0.28 39 28
223 Binghamton 49.5% -0.29 39 29
224 Buffalo 49.5% -0.29 38 30
225 Auburn 49.5% -0.31 38 34
226 Rider 49.5% -0.31 38 29
227 Harvard 49.5% -0.31 38 26
228 Butler 49.5% -0.31 37 32
229 Cal State Fullerton 49.4% -0.33 37 31
230 Troy 49.4% -0.34 37 30
231 Drexel 49.4% -0.34 36 31
232 William & Mary 49.4% -0.34 36 31
233 St. John's 49.4% -0.35 36 33
234 Cleveland State 49.4% -0.36 36 33
235 Florida 49.4% -0.36 35 33
236 Siena 49.3% -0.38 35 32
237 Fresno State 49.3% -0.38 35 30
238 San Diego State 49.3% -0.38 35 38
239 Florida State 49.3% -0.40 34 32
240 The Citadel 49.3% -0.40 34 31
241 North Carolina 49.2% -0.41 34 33
242 Abilene Christian 49.2% -0.42 33 26
243 Manhattan 49.2% -0.42 33 29
244 Robert Morris 49.2% -0.43 33 31
245 Eastern Michigan 49.2% -0.43 33 30
246 UNLV 49.2% -0.43 32 31
247 St. Bonaventure 49.2% -0.44 32 32
248 Little Rock 49.2% -0.44 32 29
249 Oakland 49.1% -0.46 31 31
250 Northern Kentucky 49.1% -0.47 31 33
251 Western Carolina 49.1% -0.48 31 31
252 Seton Hall 49.0% -0.48 31 32
253 Minnesota 49.0% -0.48 30 31
254 Morehead State 49.0% -0.48 30 30
255 California Baptist 49.0% -0.49 30 31
256 Murray State 49.0% -0.49 30 31
257 Utah 49.0% -0.50 29 32
258 Valparaiso 49.0% -0.50 29 31
259 Colorado 49.0% -0.50 29 35
260 McNeese 49.0% -0.50 28 33
261 Mercer 48.9% -0.53 28 31
262 UNC Wilmington 48.9% -0.54 28 32
263 Washington 48.8% -0.55 28 32
264 Texas A&M 48.8% -0.56 27 35
265 Western Michigan 48.8% -0.56 27 28
266 Oklahoma State 48.8% -0.57 27 36
267 Lindenwood 48.8% -0.57 27 29
268 Chicago State 48.8% -0.59 26 27
269 Boston College 48.7% -0.59 26 33
270 App State 48.7% -0.60 26 29
271 Lafayette 48.7% -0.61 25 34
272 UIC 48.7% -0.61 25 31
273 UTEP 48.6% -0.63 25 30
274 Eastern Kentucky 48.6% -0.64 25 34
275 Canisius 48.6% -0.64 24 29
276 Mount St. Mary's 48.6% -0.65 24 32
277 Hawai'i 48.6% -0.66 24 32
278 Alabama A&M 48.6% -0.66 23 30
279 Fordham 48.6% -0.66 23 33
280 Incarnate Word 48.5% -0.67 23 28
281 Omaha 48.5% -0.67 23 31
282 Holy Cross 48.5% -0.67 22 30
283 SIU Edwardsville 48.5% -0.68 22 30
284 Southern 48.5% -0.69 22 30
285 La Salle 48.5% -0.70 22 34
286 Long Beach State 48.4% -0.71 21 31
287 Georgia Tech 48.4% -0.71 21 31
288 Arizona State 48.4% -0.72 21 36
289 Sacred Heart 48.4% -0.72 20 32
290 Merrimack 48.3% -0.75 20 32
291 Wisconsin 48.3% -0.75 20 35
292 NJIT 48.3% -0.77 20 29
293 Georgia Southern 48.2% -0.80 19 30
294 Texas State 48.2% -0.81 19 32
295 Central Connecticut 48.1% -0.85 19 32
296 Eastern Illinois 48.0% -0.85 19 29
297 Louisville 48.0% -0.87 18 32
298 Northeastern 48.0% -0.88 18 30
299 Rutgers 47.9% -0.89 18 34
300 Marist 47.9% -0.90 17 33
301 Tulsa 47.9% -0.91 17 30
302 Elon 47.8% -0.94 17 30
303 VMI 47.8% -0.95 17 29
304 Morgan State 47.8% -0.95 16 27
305 Hartford 47.7% -1.00 16 25
306 Arkansas State 47.6% -1.01 16 30
307 Maryland Eastern Shore 47.6% -1.02 15 27
308 Lamar 47.6% -1.02 15 28
309 Tarleton State 47.6% -1.03 15 30
310 Ole Miss 47.5% -1.07 15 33
311 Stony Brook 47.5% -1.07 14 31
312 Coastal Carolina 47.5% -1.07 14 28
313 SMU 47.4% -1.07 14 32
314 UTSA 47.4% -1.08 14 30
315 North Carolina A&T 47.4% -1.09 13 29
316 UAlbany 47.3% -1.11 13 29
317 LSU 47.3% -1.11 13 33
318 Boston University 47.3% -1.12 12 30
319 Presbyterian 47.3% -1.12 12 30
320 Northwestern 47.3% -1.13 12 34
321 Jackson State 47.3% -1.13 12 33
322 East Carolina 47.1% -1.19 11 33
323 Central Arkansas 47.1% -1.20 11 30
324 Georgia 47.1% -1.20 11 32
325 Georgetown 47.1% -1.21 10 32
326 South Carolina State 46.9% -1.26 10 30
327 South Carolina 46.9% -1.27 10 32
328 Mississippi State 46.7% -1.33 10 34
329 Bethune-Cookman 46.5% -1.41 9 30
330 Central Michigan 46.5% -1.42 9 29
331 Oregon State 46.5% -1.43 9 31
332 Old Dominion 46.4% -1.44 9 30
333 Massachusetts 46.4% -1.48 8 31
334 Seattle U 46.3% -1.48 8 30
335 Austin Peay 46.3% -1.50 8 28
336 Texas Southern 46.1% -1.57 7 33
337 Fairfield 46.0% -1.61 7 30
338 Green Bay 45.9% -1.63 7 32
339 St. Francis Brooklyn 45.9% -1.63 7 28
340 Delaware State 45.9% -1.65 6 28
341 UT Arlington 45.9% -1.66 6 29
342 New Hampshire 45.8% -1.70 6 28
343 Cal Poly 45.7% -1.71 6 31
344 Georgia State 45.6% -1.77 5 28
345 Long Island University 45.6% -1.77 5 27
346 Columbia 45.5% -1.79 5 27
347 Mississippi Valley State 45.4% -1.81 4 32
348 Alcorn State 45.2% -1.89 4 32
349 UL Monroe 45.2% -1.89 4 29
350 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 45.2% -1.92 4 27
351 Hampton 45.1% -1.93 3 31
352 Evansville 45.1% -1.96 3 32
353 Florida A&M 45.0% -1.99 3 27
354 Wagner 44.9% -2.02 2 26
355 Prairie View A&M 44.8% -2.06 2 30
356 Cal State Bakersfield 44.6% -2.14 2 31
357 Rhode Island 44.2% -2.28 2 31
358 Cal State Northridge 44.1% -2.31 1 30
359 Saint Peter's 43.9% -2.38 1 31
360 Monmouth 43.8% -2.42 1 33
361 California 43.7% -2.47 1 32
362 Kansas City 43.4% -2.59 0 30
363 Alabama State 42.1% -3.05 0 30