This will be our year, took a long time to come "This Will Be Our Year" - The Zombies

Game Outcomes

Each point is a completed game — x: home team's season-to-date value entering the game, y: away team's. home win home loss

Predicts home win: AUC 0.61 (team entering with the better value wins 58% of games)

Based on 5499 of 5721 completed games where both teams entered with a season-to-date value.

Team Distribution

Season-to-date value for every team, with a density curve.

min 20.5 max 31.6 mean 24.5 std 1.7 (n=363)

Team Rankings

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# Team Defensive Rebounds Per Game z Pctl GP
1 Alabama 31.6 +4.17 100 37
2 Utah Valley 30.0 +3.23 100 34
3 Arizona 29.1 +2.74 99 35
4 Creighton 28.7 +2.50 99 37
5 North Carolina 28.3 +2.26 99 33
6 Princeton 28.3 +2.24 99 30
7 Bryant 28.0 +2.09 98 28
8 Utah 28.0 +2.08 98 32
9 Michigan 27.9 +2.00 98 34
10 Florida Atlantic 27.8 +1.95 98 37
11 Clemson 27.8 +1.93 97 34
12 UT Martin 27.8 +1.92 97 29
13 Saint Louis 27.5 +1.79 97 32
14 Xavier 27.5 +1.75 96 37
15 Indiana State 27.5 +1.74 96 35
16 Drake 27.4 +1.74 96 34
17 Wright State 27.4 +1.72 96 31
18 Oral Roberts 27.4 +1.68 95 31
19 Pennsylvania 27.3 +1.66 95 29
20 North Dakota State 27.3 +1.65 95 31
21 UAB 27.3 +1.65 94 38
22 Yale 27.3 +1.62 94 28
23 Long Beach State 27.2 +1.59 94 31
24 Santa Clara 27.2 +1.59 94 32
25 Lipscomb 27.1 +1.55 93 30
26 Utah State 27.0 +1.49 93 34
27 Southern Utah 27.0 +1.47 93 33
28 St. John's 27.0 +1.47 93 33
29 New Mexico 26.9 +1.42 92 33
30 Charleston 26.9 +1.40 92 34
31 UC Irvine 26.8 +1.35 92 33
32 Illinois 26.7 +1.31 91 33
33 Dayton 26.7 +1.30 91 34
34 Milwaukee 26.7 +1.28 91 31
35 Duke 26.7 +1.28 91 36
36 Michigan State 26.6 +1.27 90 34
37 Tulane 26.6 +1.26 90 31
38 Gonzaga 26.6 +1.24 90 36
39 Oregon 26.6 +1.24 90 36
40 George Mason 26.6 +1.24 89 33
41 Wichita State 26.6 +1.23 89 32
42 Boise State 26.6 +1.22 89 33
43 Eastern Washington 26.5 +1.21 88 33
44 Indiana 26.5 +1.20 88 35
45 BYU 26.4 +1.14 88 32
46 Penn State 26.4 +1.14 88 37
47 Marshall 26.4 +1.13 87 31
48 Purdue 26.4 +1.12 87 35
49 UConn 26.3 +1.08 87 39
50 Nebraska 26.3 +1.05 86 32
51 Southern Indiana 26.2 +1.00 86 30
52 Florida 26.2 +0.97 86 33
53 Fordham 26.2 +0.97 86 33
54 Kansas 26.1 +0.97 85 36
55 Houston 26.1 +0.96 85 37
56 UNC Greensboro 26.1 +0.94 85 30
57 Colorado 26.1 +0.92 85 35
58 Quinnipiac 26.0 +0.90 84 31
59 Stony Brook 26.0 +0.90 84 31
60 Pittsburgh 26.0 +0.90 84 36
61 Oklahoma State 26.0 +0.87 83 36
62 Providence 26.0 +0.87 83 33
63 Brown 26.0 +0.86 83 27
64 Cincinnati 25.9 +0.85 83 35
65 UMass Lowell 25.9 +0.83 82 32
66 Valparaiso 25.9 +0.83 82 31
67 Eastern Kentucky 25.9 +0.81 82 34
68 USC 25.9 +0.81 81 33
69 Wake Forest 25.9 +0.81 81 33
70 Denver 25.9 +0.80 81 30
71 High Point 25.9 +0.80 81 29
72 California Baptist 25.8 +0.79 80 31
73 George Washington 25.8 +0.79 80 31
74 Pepperdine 25.8 +0.78 80 29
75 North Carolina A&T 25.8 +0.76 80 29
76 UNC Asheville 25.8 +0.76 79 33
77 SIU Edwardsville 25.7 +0.73 79 30
78 Jacksonville State 25.7 +0.71 79 28
79 Lehigh 25.7 +0.71 78 28
80 Harvard 25.7 +0.70 78 26
81 Bradley 25.7 +0.69 78 34
82 James Madison 25.7 +0.69 78 30
83 North Alabama 25.7 +0.69 77 30
84 Colgate 25.6 +0.67 77 34
85 Western Carolina 25.6 +0.65 77 31
86 Chattanooga 25.6 +0.64 77 32
87 Nevada 25.6 +0.64 76 32
88 Army 25.6 +0.64 76 31
89 Rice 25.6 +0.62 76 32
90 San José State 25.6 +0.62 75 34
91 Arizona State 25.6 +0.62 75 36
92 Oklahoma 25.5 +0.61 75 32
93 Hofstra 25.5 +0.61 75 34
94 Dartmouth 25.5 +0.59 74 26
95 Hawai'i 25.5 +0.59 74 32
96 Kentucky 25.5 +0.59 74 34
97 South Florida 25.5 +0.59 73 32
98 Tennessee 25.5 +0.59 73 36
99 Memphis 25.5 +0.58 73 35
100 Richmond 25.5 +0.58 73 33
101 App State 25.5 +0.58 72 29
102 Temple 25.5 +0.57 72 32
103 Seattle U 25.5 +0.57 72 30
104 UT Rio Grande Valley 25.5 +0.57 72 28
105 Old Dominion 25.4 +0.55 71 30
106 Grand Canyon 25.4 +0.54 71 33
107 Texas Southern 25.4 +0.52 71 33
108 San Diego State 25.4 +0.51 70 38
109 Southern Miss 25.4 +0.51 70 30
110 Marist 25.4 +0.51 70 33
111 Bucknell 25.4 +0.50 70 31
112 Ohio State 25.3 +0.49 69 35
113 Queens University 25.3 +0.49 69 30
114 Rhode Island 25.3 +0.48 69 31
115 Liberty 25.3 +0.45 69 33
116 Morehead State 25.3 +0.45 68 30
117 NC State 25.3 +0.45 68 34
118 Massachusetts 25.3 +0.44 68 31
119 Murray State 25.2 +0.43 67 31
120 South Alabama 25.2 +0.42 67 33
121 Rutgers 25.2 +0.41 67 34
122 Georgetown 25.2 +0.40 67 32
123 Northern Colorado 25.2 +0.39 66 31
124 South Dakota State 25.2 +0.39 66 31
125 Tennessee State 25.1 +0.38 66 28
126 Ohio 25.1 +0.37 65 32
127 Jacksonville 25.1 +0.36 65 26
128 Akron 25.1 +0.35 65 31
129 Western Kentucky 25.1 +0.35 65 31
130 Kennesaw State 25.1 +0.35 64 32
131 New Hampshire 25.1 +0.33 64 28
132 Samford 25.1 +0.33 64 28
133 Loyola Marymount 25.1 +0.33 64 30
134 Buffalo 25.0 +0.31 63 30
135 Sacred Heart 25.0 +0.31 63 32
136 Northeastern 25.0 +0.29 63 30
137 Northern Iowa 25.0 +0.29 62 31
138 Towson 25.0 +0.29 62 33
139 Vermont 25.0 +0.29 62 33
140 Arkansas 25.0 +0.28 62 36
141 Furman 25.0 +0.27 61 33
142 Binghamton 25.0 +0.27 61 29
143 Vanderbilt 24.9 +0.26 61 37
144 Mississippi State 24.9 +0.26 60 34
145 San Francisco 24.9 +0.26 60 33
146 Southeast Missouri State 24.9 +0.26 60 33
147 Georgia 24.9 +0.26 60 32
148 Washington 24.9 +0.24 59 32
149 Florida Gulf Coast 24.9 +0.23 59 31
150 Boston University 24.9 +0.23 59 30
151 Tennessee Tech 24.9 +0.23 59 30
152 NJIT 24.9 +0.21 58 29
153 Coastal Carolina 24.9 +0.21 58 28
154 East Carolina 24.8 +0.20 58 33
155 Grambling 24.8 +0.18 57 31
156 Georgia Southern 24.8 +0.17 57 30
157 Virginia Tech 24.8 +0.17 57 34
158 Kansas State 24.8 +0.16 57 36
159 Purdue Fort Wayne 24.8 +0.15 56 30
160 Bowling Green 24.8 +0.15 56 29
161 UC Riverside 24.8 +0.15 56 33
162 Colorado State 24.8 +0.14 56 32
163 Central Arkansas 24.7 +0.13 55 30
164 Lindenwood 24.7 +0.13 55 29
165 Texas Tech 24.7 +0.13 55 32
166 Ball State 24.7 +0.11 54 30
167 Rider 24.7 +0.11 54 29
168 UC San Diego 24.7 +0.10 54 28
169 Belmont 24.7 +0.10 54 31
170 Syracuse 24.7 +0.09 53 32
171 South Dakota 24.6 +0.07 53 29
172 UMBC 24.6 +0.06 53 31
173 Texas 24.6 +0.06 52 38
174 UC Davis 24.6 +0.06 52 30
175 Southern Illinois 24.6 +0.05 52 32
176 Saint Mary's 24.6 +0.05 52 34
177 Auburn 24.6 +0.03 51 34
178 Drexel 24.5 +0.03 51 31
179 Weber State 24.5 +0.03 51 31
180 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 24.5 +0.01 51 31
181 Iowa 24.5 +0.01 50 33
182 La Salle 24.5 -0.00 50 34
183 Notre Dame 24.5 -0.00 50 32
184 Long Island University 24.5 -0.01 49 27
185 Villanova 24.5 -0.02 49 34
186 SMU 24.5 -0.02 49 32
187 Iona 24.5 -0.03 49 35
188 Louisiana 24.5 -0.03 48 31
189 Gardner-Webb 24.4 -0.03 48 29
190 Norfolk State 24.4 -0.03 48 29
191 North Florida 24.4 -0.03 48 29
192 Northern Illinois 24.4 -0.04 47 30
193 Stonehill 24.4 -0.04 47 30
194 Elon 24.4 -0.06 47 30
195 UTSA 24.4 -0.06 46 30
196 Saint Francis 24.4 -0.07 46 29
197 Texas A&M 24.4 -0.08 46 35
198 East Tennessee State 24.4 -0.08 46 30
199 Sam Houston 24.4 -0.08 45 30
200 Minnesota 24.4 -0.09 45 31
201 Miami 24.4 -0.09 45 37
202 Youngstown State 24.3 -0.10 44 32
203 TCU 24.3 -0.10 44 35
204 Davidson 24.3 -0.11 44 31
205 Georgia Tech 24.3 -0.13 44 31
206 Seton Hall 24.3 -0.13 43 32
207 North Carolina Central 24.3 -0.14 43 26
208 Portland 24.3 -0.15 43 31
209 Saint Joseph's 24.2 -0.16 43 33
210 Northwestern 24.2 -0.16 42 34
211 Holy Cross 24.2 -0.16 42 30
212 Navy 24.2 -0.16 42 30
213 Omaha 24.2 -0.17 41 31
214 Siena 24.2 -0.17 41 32
215 Mercer 24.2 -0.18 41 31
216 Lafayette 24.2 -0.19 41 34
217 Kent State 24.2 -0.21 40 33
218 Stetson 24.1 -0.22 40 29
219 Sacramento State 24.1 -0.22 40 30
220 UCLA 24.1 -0.24 40 37
221 Little Rock 24.1 -0.24 39 29
222 Stanford 24.1 -0.25 39 33
223 Cal State Fullerton 24.1 -0.26 39 31
224 Robert Morris 24.0 -0.28 38 31
225 Mount St. Mary's 24.0 -0.28 38 32
226 Central Connecticut 24.0 -0.30 38 32
227 Columbia 24.0 -0.30 38 27
228 Howard 24.0 -0.30 37 32
229 Virginia 24.0 -0.32 37 33
230 Coppin State 24.0 -0.32 37 32
231 SE Louisiana 24.0 -0.32 36 29
232 Lamar 24.0 -0.32 36 28
233 Toledo 23.9 -0.33 36 34
234 Washington State 23.9 -0.33 36 34
235 VCU 23.9 -0.35 35 35
236 Illinois State 23.9 -0.35 35 32
237 Utah Tech 23.9 -0.36 35 30
238 Western Michigan 23.9 -0.36 35 28
239 Wyoming 23.9 -0.38 34 30
240 Eastern Illinois 23.9 -0.38 34 29
241 Delaware State 23.8 -0.40 34 28
242 Montana State 23.8 -0.41 33 33
243 New Mexico State 23.8 -0.41 33 21
244 Maryland 23.8 -0.42 33 35
245 Boston College 23.8 -0.42 33 33
246 Western Illinois 23.8 -0.43 32 27
247 Wisconsin 23.8 -0.43 32 35
248 VMI 23.8 -0.44 32 29
249 Ole Miss 23.8 -0.44 31 33
250 LSU 23.6 -0.51 31 33
251 Cal Poly 23.6 -0.53 31 31
252 The Citadel 23.6 -0.53 31 31
253 UL Monroe 23.6 -0.54 30 29
254 Hampton 23.5 -0.57 30 31
255 North Dakota 23.5 -0.57 30 31
256 Arkansas State 23.5 -0.58 30 30
257 Central Michigan 23.5 -0.58 29 29
258 Evansville 23.5 -0.59 29 32
259 Pacific 23.5 -0.60 29 31
260 Butler 23.5 -0.61 28 32
261 Detroit Mercy 23.5 -0.61 28 32
262 UC Santa Barbara 23.5 -0.62 28 33
263 Loyola Chicago 23.5 -0.62 28 31
264 UCF 23.4 -0.63 27 34
265 Delaware 23.4 -0.63 27 32
266 Missouri State 23.4 -0.64 27 31
267 Troy 23.4 -0.65 27 30
268 UIC 23.4 -0.66 26 31
269 Campbell 23.3 -0.69 26 32
270 St. Bonaventure 23.3 -0.69 26 32
271 UNC Wilmington 23.3 -0.69 25 32
272 Fairfield 23.3 -0.69 25 30
273 Prairie View A&M 23.3 -0.73 25 30
274 Southern 23.3 -0.73 25 30
275 Duquesne 23.2 -0.75 24 33
276 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 23.2 -0.76 24 27
277 Charlotte 23.2 -0.78 24 36
278 St. Thomas-Minnesota 23.2 -0.78 23 31
279 DePaul 23.2 -0.78 23 33
280 Louisiana Tech 23.2 -0.79 23 30
281 Longwood 23.1 -0.81 23 30
282 Northern Arizona 23.1 -0.82 22 33
283 North Texas 23.1 -0.82 22 36
284 Stephen F. Austin 23.1 -0.83 22 29
285 Kansas City 23.1 -0.83 22 30
286 UTEP 23.1 -0.85 21 30
287 Cornell 23.0 -0.87 21 26
288 Alabama State 23.0 -0.87 21 30
289 Louisville 23.0 -0.87 20 32
290 Marquette 23.0 -0.87 20 36
291 Canisius 23.0 -0.89 20 29
292 Idaho State 23.0 -0.91 20 30
293 UAlbany 23.0 -0.91 19 29
294 Idaho 22.9 -0.93 19 30
295 Cleveland State 22.9 -0.94 19 33
296 Air Force 22.9 -0.95 19 32
297 Tulsa 22.9 -0.95 18 30
298 Cal State Northridge 22.9 -0.97 18 30
299 San Diego 22.8 -0.99 18 29
300 Jackson State 22.8 -1.00 17 33
301 East Texas A&M 22.8 -1.00 17 32
302 Oregon State 22.8 -1.00 17 31
303 California 22.8 -1.02 17 32
304 UNLV 22.8 -1.02 16 31
305 Florida State 22.8 -1.04 16 32
306 Montana 22.7 -1.05 16 30
307 South Carolina Upstate 22.7 -1.05 15 30
308 Houston Christian 22.7 -1.05 15 29
309 Georgia State 22.7 -1.08 15 28
310 Radford 22.7 -1.08 15 34
311 Eastern Michigan 22.7 -1.09 14 30
312 West Virginia 22.6 -1.12 14 34
313 McNeese 22.6 -1.12 14 33
314 Alabama A&M 22.6 -1.13 14 30
315 New Orleans 22.6 -1.13 13 30
316 Wagner 22.6 -1.14 13 26
317 Charleston Southern 22.5 -1.18 13 29
318 Wofford 22.5 -1.19 12 30
319 William & Mary 22.5 -1.20 12 31
320 Baylor 22.5 -1.20 12 34
321 Florida International 22.5 -1.21 12 30
322 Fairleigh Dickinson 22.4 -1.23 11 35
323 Chicago State 22.3 -1.31 11 27
324 Maine 22.3 -1.31 11 28
325 South Carolina 22.3 -1.32 10 32
326 American University 22.2 -1.35 10 32
327 Mississippi Valley State 22.2 -1.35 10 32
328 Manhattan 22.2 -1.36 10 29
329 Fresno State 22.2 -1.36 9 30
330 Middle Tennessee 22.2 -1.39 9 31
331 Miami (OH) 22.1 -1.40 9 29
332 Winthrop 22.1 -1.40 9 30
333 Florida A&M 22.1 -1.42 8 27
334 Iowa State 22.1 -1.43 8 33
335 St. Francis Brooklyn 22.1 -1.44 8 28
336 Bellarmine 22.1 -1.44 7 30
337 Oakland 22.1 -1.44 7 31
338 Morgan State 22.0 -1.46 7 27
339 Texas State 22.0 -1.46 7 32
340 Niagara 22.0 -1.48 6 30
341 UT Arlington 22.0 -1.48 6 29
342 Alcorn State 22.0 -1.50 6 32
343 Bethune-Cookman 22.0 -1.50 6 30
344 IU Indianapolis 22.0 -1.50 5 30
345 Cal State Bakersfield 21.9 -1.54 5 31
346 Monmouth 21.9 -1.55 5 33
347 Presbyterian 21.8 -1.58 4 30
348 Maryland Eastern Shore 21.8 -1.61 4 27
349 Northwestern State 21.8 -1.63 4 32
350 Loyola Maryland 21.7 -1.67 4 31
351 Nicholls 21.7 -1.68 3 27
352 Incarnate Word 21.5 -1.76 3 28
353 Missouri 21.4 -1.85 3 35
354 Tarleton State 21.3 -1.92 2 30
355 Portland State 21.2 -1.95 2 29
356 Hartford 21.2 -1.95 2 25
357 South Carolina State 21.1 -1.99 2 30
358 Merrimack 21.1 -2.00 1 32
359 Abilene Christian 21.1 -2.03 1 26
360 Green Bay 20.9 -2.11 1 32
361 Saint Peter's 20.9 -2.11 1 31
362 Northern Kentucky 20.9 -2.13 0 33
363 Austin Peay 20.5 -2.37 0 28