Don't you understand that's not my problem? "Positively 4th Street" - Bob Dylan

Game Outcomes

Each point is a completed game — x: home team's season-to-date value entering the game, y: away team's. home win home loss

Predicts home win: AUC 0.60 (team entering with the better value wins 57% of games)

Based on 5499 of 5721 completed games where both teams entered with a season-to-date value.

Team Distribution

Season-to-date value for every team, with a density curve.

min 62.4% max 79.8% mean 71.4% std 2.9% (n=363)

Team Rankings

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# Team Defensive Rebound Percentage z Pctl GP
1 Liberty 79.8% +2.86 100 33
2 Saint Mary's 78.3% +2.34 100 34
3 Vermont 77.7% +2.13 99 33
4 Drake 77.6% +2.11 99 34
5 Northern Iowa 77.6% +2.10 99 31
6 Weber State 77.6% +2.10 99 31
7 Princeton 77.4% +2.04 98 30
8 North Dakota State 77.3% +2.01 98 31
9 Indiana State 77.2% +1.97 98 35
10 UC Riverside 77.1% +1.95 98 33
11 Yale 76.8% +1.82 97 28
12 North Carolina 76.7% +1.80 97 33
13 Creighton 76.5% +1.74 97 37
14 Purdue 76.5% +1.73 96 35
15 Bradley 76.4% +1.69 96 34
16 Brown 76.3% +1.66 96 27
17 Boise State 76.0% +1.56 96 33
18 Sacramento State 76.0% +1.55 95 30
19 Jacksonville State 75.9% +1.52 95 28
20 Army 75.7% +1.47 95 31
21 Clemson 75.7% +1.46 94 34
22 Boston University 75.7% +1.45 94 30
23 BYU 75.7% +1.45 94 32
24 Harvard 75.7% +1.44 94 26
25 Charlotte 75.6% +1.44 93 36
26 Santa Clara 75.6% +1.42 93 32
27 Utah State 75.5% +1.39 93 34
28 Colgate 75.5% +1.39 93 34
29 Cal Poly 75.5% +1.38 92 31
30 Lipscomb 75.4% +1.37 92 30
31 San José State 75.4% +1.37 92 34
32 Loyola Marymount 75.4% +1.36 91 30
33 Morehead State 75.3% +1.34 91 30
34 Valparaiso 75.3% +1.33 91 31
35 George Mason 75.2% +1.30 91 33
36 Wagner 75.2% +1.27 90 26
37 Virginia 75.1% +1.26 90 33
38 Wisconsin 75.1% +1.25 90 35
39 Nevada 75.1% +1.24 90 32
40 Sam Houston 75.1% +1.24 89 30
41 Bucknell 75.0% +1.22 89 31
42 Xavier 75.0% +1.21 89 37
43 Montana 74.9% +1.20 88 30
44 Colorado 74.9% +1.20 88 35
45 Kentucky 74.9% +1.20 88 34
46 Gardner-Webb 74.9% +1.17 88 29
47 Western Carolina 74.8% +1.16 87 31
48 Bryant 74.8% +1.16 87 28
49 Villanova 74.8% +1.16 87 34
50 Michigan State 74.8% +1.16 86 34
51 Fordham 74.8% +1.15 86 33
52 Wyoming 74.7% +1.13 86 30
53 Montana State 74.6% +1.10 86 33
54 Richmond 74.6% +1.09 85 33
55 Florida Atlantic 74.6% +1.09 85 37
56 Kennesaw State 74.6% +1.07 85 32
57 Charleston 74.6% +1.07 85 34
58 Evansville 74.5% +1.03 84 32
59 Gonzaga 74.4% +1.03 84 36
60 Penn State 74.4% +1.02 84 37
61 Lafayette 74.4% +1.01 83 34
62 Jacksonville 74.3% +0.98 83 26
63 Michigan 74.2% +0.96 83 34
64 Eastern Washington 74.2% +0.94 83 33
65 Southern Indiana 74.1% +0.91 82 30
66 Northern Arizona 74.1% +0.90 82 33
67 Duke 74.0% +0.88 82 36
68 South Dakota State 74.0% +0.88 81 31
69 UConn 74.0% +0.88 81 39
70 San Diego State 73.9% +0.85 81 38
71 Arizona 73.9% +0.85 81 35
72 California Baptist 73.9% +0.84 80 31
73 Southern Utah 73.9% +0.84 80 33
74 Washington State 73.9% +0.83 80 34
75 NC State 73.9% +0.83 80 34
76 Queens University 73.9% +0.83 79 30
77 Purdue Fort Wayne 73.9% +0.83 79 30
78 Dartmouth 73.8% +0.82 79 26
79 UC Santa Barbara 73.8% +0.80 78 33
80 Louisiana 73.7% +0.76 78 31
81 Stanford 73.6% +0.75 78 33
82 Oregon 73.6% +0.73 78 36
83 Saint Louis 73.5% +0.72 77 32
84 Hawai'i 73.5% +0.71 77 32
85 Iowa State 73.5% +0.70 77 33
86 Notre Dame 73.5% +0.70 77 32
87 Akron 73.5% +0.70 76 31
88 Western Illinois 73.5% +0.69 76 27
89 UNC Greensboro 73.5% +0.69 76 30
90 New Mexico State 73.4% +0.68 75 21
91 Wright State 73.4% +0.67 75 31
92 Lehigh 73.4% +0.67 75 28
93 Seattle U 73.4% +0.67 75 30
94 Wake Forest 73.4% +0.66 74 33
95 Rice 73.4% +0.66 74 32
96 UAlbany 73.3% +0.66 74 29
97 Illinois State 73.3% +0.65 73 32
98 Towson 73.3% +0.65 73 33
99 Chattanooga 73.3% +0.65 73 32
100 San Francisco 73.3% +0.63 73 33
101 Illinois 73.3% +0.62 72 33
102 UMBC 73.2% +0.61 72 31
103 Siena 73.2% +0.60 72 32
104 Utah Tech 73.2% +0.59 72 30
105 Tennessee 73.1% +0.59 71 36
106 Longwood 73.1% +0.58 71 30
107 Missouri State 73.1% +0.58 71 31
108 UMass Lowell 73.1% +0.57 70 32
109 Northeastern 73.1% +0.57 70 30
110 Northern Colorado 73.0% +0.55 70 31
111 UC Irvine 73.0% +0.54 70 33
112 Dayton 73.0% +0.53 69 34
113 Samford 73.0% +0.53 69 28
114 Colorado State 72.9% +0.49 69 32
115 South Dakota 72.9% +0.49 69 29
116 Oklahoma 72.8% +0.47 68 32
117 Providence 72.8% +0.47 68 33
118 Georgia Southern 72.7% +0.44 68 30
119 New Mexico 72.7% +0.44 67 33
120 Utah 72.7% +0.43 67 32
121 Idaho State 72.7% +0.43 67 30
122 VMI 72.7% +0.43 67 29
123 Murray State 72.7% +0.43 66 31
124 Southern Illinois 72.7% +0.42 66 32
125 Furman 72.7% +0.42 66 33
126 Denver 72.7% +0.42 65 30
127 Stony Brook 72.6% +0.41 65 31
128 North Dakota 72.6% +0.41 65 31
129 Iowa 72.6% +0.41 65 33
130 Binghamton 72.6% +0.41 64 29
131 Drexel 72.6% +0.41 64 31
132 New Hampshire 72.6% +0.40 64 28
133 Cincinnati 72.6% +0.39 64 35
134 Quinnipiac 72.4% +0.35 63 31
135 St. John's 72.4% +0.35 63 33
136 Texas Southern 72.4% +0.34 63 33
137 Western Michigan 72.4% +0.33 62 28
138 Mercer 72.4% +0.33 62 31
139 James Madison 72.4% +0.32 62 30
140 Houston 72.3% +0.31 62 37
141 Virginia Tech 72.3% +0.30 61 34
142 Oral Roberts 72.3% +0.30 61 31
143 Northwestern 72.3% +0.29 61 34
144 Davidson 72.2% +0.27 60 31
145 South Florida 72.2% +0.27 60 32
146 Idaho 72.2% +0.26 60 30
147 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 72.2% +0.26 60 31
148 Campbell 72.2% +0.26 59 32
149 American University 72.1% +0.23 59 32
150 Massachusetts 72.1% +0.23 59 31
151 Alabama 72.1% +0.23 59 37
152 North Alabama 72.1% +0.23 58 30
153 Arkansas 72.1% +0.23 58 36
154 Radford 72.1% +0.21 58 34
155 Arkansas State 72.0% +0.21 57 30
156 Rutgers 72.0% +0.20 57 34
157 Bowling Green 72.0% +0.20 57 29
158 Long Beach State 72.0% +0.19 57 31
159 Navy 72.0% +0.19 56 30
160 UNC Wilmington 72.0% +0.18 56 32
161 Bellarmine 71.9% +0.15 56 30
162 Maryland 71.9% +0.15 56 35
163 Louisiana Tech 71.9% +0.15 55 30
164 Stetson 71.9% +0.15 55 29
165 Wichita State 71.8% +0.13 55 32
166 Oklahoma State 71.8% +0.13 54 36
167 Pennsylvania 71.8% +0.13 54 29
168 Central Connecticut 71.8% +0.12 54 32
169 Fresno State 71.8% +0.12 54 30
170 Tennessee State 71.8% +0.12 53 28
171 UCLA 71.8% +0.11 53 37
172 Nebraska 71.7% +0.09 53 32
173 Boston College 71.7% +0.09 52 33
174 South Alabama 71.6% +0.06 52 33
175 Rider 71.6% +0.06 52 29
176 Ball State 71.6% +0.06 52 30
177 Cal State Bakersfield 71.5% +0.04 51 31
178 Texas State 71.5% +0.03 51 32
179 Robert Morris 71.5% +0.02 51 31
180 Loyola Maryland 71.5% +0.02 51 31
181 Loyola Chicago 71.5% +0.02 50 31
182 Air Force 71.4% +0.01 50 32
183 Niagara 71.4% +0.00 50 30
184 Ohio State 71.4% -0.00 49 35
185 North Texas 71.4% -0.00 49 36
186 Mississippi State 71.4% -0.02 49 34
187 Southeast Missouri State 71.4% -0.02 49 33
188 UC Davis 71.4% -0.02 48 30
189 Southern 71.4% -0.02 48 30
190 Pittsburgh 71.4% -0.02 48 36
191 Abilene Christian 71.4% -0.02 48 26
192 Cornell 71.3% -0.04 47 26
193 Prairie View A&M 71.3% -0.04 47 30
194 Kansas 71.3% -0.05 47 36
195 Wofford 71.3% -0.05 46 30
196 St. Thomas-Minnesota 71.3% -0.06 46 31
197 Miami 71.2% -0.07 46 37
198 Florida Gulf Coast 71.2% -0.07 46 31
199 LSU 71.2% -0.09 45 33
200 App State 71.1% -0.10 45 29
201 East Carolina 71.1% -0.10 45 33
202 East Tennessee State 71.1% -0.11 44 30
203 Texas 71.1% -0.11 44 38
204 Ohio 71.1% -0.12 44 32
205 Marist 71.1% -0.13 44 33
206 Omaha 71.1% -0.13 43 31
207 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 71.0% -0.14 43 27
208 Temple 71.0% -0.15 43 32
209 UT Martin 71.0% -0.15 43 29
210 Saint Francis 71.0% -0.15 42 29
211 Old Dominion 71.0% -0.15 42 30
212 Indiana 71.0% -0.16 42 35
213 Delaware State 71.0% -0.16 41 28
214 Buffalo 70.9% -0.17 41 30
215 NJIT 70.9% -0.18 41 29
216 Utah Valley 70.9% -0.19 41 34
217 UNC Asheville 70.9% -0.19 40 33
218 Jackson State 70.8% -0.22 40 33
219 Youngstown State 70.8% -0.23 40 32
220 Middle Tennessee 70.8% -0.23 40 31
221 UAB 70.7% -0.24 39 38
222 UC San Diego 70.7% -0.24 39 28
223 Eastern Kentucky 70.7% -0.25 39 34
224 West Virginia 70.7% -0.25 38 34
225 Fairleigh Dickinson 70.7% -0.26 38 35
226 Cal State Fullerton 70.6% -0.27 38 31
227 St. Bonaventure 70.6% -0.28 38 32
228 Southern Miss 70.6% -0.28 37 30
229 SIU Edwardsville 70.6% -0.29 37 30
230 Rhode Island 70.5% -0.31 37 31
231 Kansas City 70.5% -0.32 36 30
232 Fairfield 70.5% -0.32 36 30
233 Georgia State 70.5% -0.32 36 28
234 North Carolina Central 70.4% -0.34 36 26
235 UT Rio Grande Valley 70.4% -0.36 35 28
236 Presbyterian 70.4% -0.37 35 30
237 George Washington 70.3% -0.38 35 31
238 San Diego 70.3% -0.39 35 29
239 UTEP 70.3% -0.40 34 30
240 Detroit Mercy 70.3% -0.40 34 32
241 Belmont 70.2% -0.40 34 31
242 Delaware 70.2% -0.43 33 32
243 Ole Miss 70.1% -0.44 33 33
244 William & Mary 70.1% -0.45 33 31
245 Tarleton State 70.1% -0.45 33 30
246 Mount St. Mary's 70.1% -0.45 32 32
247 UL Monroe 70.1% -0.46 32 29
248 Seton Hall 70.1% -0.46 32 32
249 SE Louisiana 70.1% -0.47 31 29
250 East Texas A&M 70.1% -0.47 31 32
251 Georgia Tech 70.0% -0.47 31 31
252 VCU 70.0% -0.47 31 35
253 Louisville 70.0% -0.49 30 32
254 Canisius 70.0% -0.49 30 29
255 Holy Cross 70.0% -0.50 30 30
256 Georgetown 70.0% -0.50 30 32
257 Maine 70.0% -0.50 29 28
258 Kent State 69.9% -0.52 29 33
259 Texas Tech 69.9% -0.53 29 32
260 Troy 69.9% -0.54 28 30
261 North Carolina A&T 69.8% -0.56 28 29
262 Tennessee Tech 69.7% -0.57 28 30
263 Hampton 69.7% -0.58 28 31
264 Kansas State 69.7% -0.59 27 36
265 Long Island University 69.7% -0.60 27 27
266 California 69.6% -0.61 27 32
267 Pepperdine 69.6% -0.62 27 29
268 Butler 69.6% -0.62 26 32
269 UIC 69.6% -0.63 26 31
270 Texas A&M 69.6% -0.63 26 35
271 Grand Canyon 69.6% -0.63 25 33
272 Portland 69.6% -0.63 25 31
273 Little Rock 69.6% -0.64 25 29
274 SMU 69.5% -0.64 25 32
275 La Salle 69.5% -0.65 24 34
276 Tulane 69.5% -0.65 24 31
277 Cal State Northridge 69.5% -0.66 24 30
278 TCU 69.5% -0.66 23 35
279 Central Arkansas 69.5% -0.67 23 30
280 Georgia 69.5% -0.67 23 32
281 Elon 69.4% -0.67 23 30
282 Norfolk State 69.4% -0.68 22 29
283 Oregon State 69.4% -0.70 22 31
284 Florida 69.3% -0.72 22 33
285 UCF 69.3% -0.72 22 34
286 Saint Joseph's 69.3% -0.74 21 33
287 Saint Peter's 69.3% -0.74 21 31
288 Iona 69.3% -0.74 21 35
289 Coastal Carolina 69.3% -0.74 20 28
290 Sacred Heart 69.2% -0.75 20 32
291 Minnesota 69.2% -0.76 20 31
292 UT Arlington 69.2% -0.76 20 29
293 Baylor 69.1% -0.78 19 34
294 Toledo 69.0% -0.81 19 34
295 Western Kentucky 69.0% -0.82 19 31
296 Charleston Southern 69.0% -0.82 19 29
297 UNLV 69.0% -0.82 18 31
298 Lindenwood 69.0% -0.82 18 29
299 McNeese 68.9% -0.85 18 33
300 UTSA 68.8% -0.90 17 30
301 Portland State 68.6% -0.95 17 29
302 Stonehill 68.6% -0.95 17 30
303 Alcorn State 68.6% -0.97 17 32
304 Florida State 68.5% -0.98 16 32
305 Pacific 68.5% -0.98 16 31
306 Arizona State 68.5% -1.00 16 36
307 The Citadel 68.3% -1.05 15 31
308 Hofstra 68.3% -1.07 15 34
309 Maryland Eastern Shore 68.3% -1.07 15 27
310 Marquette 68.3% -1.07 15 36
311 Grambling 68.2% -1.09 14 31
312 St. Francis Brooklyn 68.2% -1.10 14 28
313 Austin Peay 68.2% -1.11 14 28
314 Houston Christian 68.1% -1.12 14 29
315 Vanderbilt 68.1% -1.13 13 37
316 Howard 68.1% -1.14 13 32
317 IU Indianapolis 68.1% -1.14 13 30
318 High Point 68.0% -1.17 12 29
319 Stephen F. Austin 67.9% -1.21 12 29
320 Eastern Illinois 67.8% -1.22 12 29
321 South Carolina Upstate 67.8% -1.24 12 30
322 Green Bay 67.6% -1.30 11 32
323 Mississippi Valley State 67.6% -1.31 11 32
324 Auburn 67.6% -1.32 11 34
325 South Carolina 67.5% -1.33 10 32
326 Central Michigan 67.5% -1.35 10 29
327 Miami (OH) 67.4% -1.36 10 29
328 Memphis 67.4% -1.38 10 35
329 Marshall 67.4% -1.39 9 31
330 USC 67.3% -1.41 9 33
331 New Orleans 67.3% -1.42 9 30
332 Oakland 67.3% -1.42 9 31
333 Eastern Michigan 67.2% -1.44 8 30
334 Northern Illinois 67.2% -1.45 8 30
335 Milwaukee 67.2% -1.45 8 31
336 Monmouth 67.1% -1.48 7 33
337 North Florida 67.1% -1.48 7 29
338 Northern Kentucky 67.0% -1.51 7 33
339 Tulsa 67.0% -1.52 7 30
340 Duquesne 66.9% -1.55 6 33
341 Incarnate Word 66.9% -1.56 6 28
342 Chicago State 66.8% -1.57 6 27
343 Lamar 66.6% -1.66 6 28
344 Columbia 66.5% -1.67 5 27
345 Hartford 66.5% -1.68 5 25
346 Northwestern State 66.4% -1.71 5 32
347 Syracuse 66.4% -1.73 4 32
348 Florida A&M 66.3% -1.76 4 27
349 Nicholls 66.3% -1.76 4 27
350 Alabama A&M 66.1% -1.82 4 30
351 DePaul 65.9% -1.89 3 33
352 Winthrop 65.8% -1.92 3 30
353 Manhattan 65.8% -1.93 3 29
354 South Carolina State 65.5% -2.02 2 30
355 Washington 65.4% -2.06 2 32
356 Alabama State 65.2% -2.13 2 30
357 Bethune-Cookman 65.1% -2.15 2 30
358 Cleveland State 64.5% -2.36 1 33
359 Merrimack 64.4% -2.40 1 32
360 Coppin State 64.3% -2.41 1 32
361 Florida International 63.3% -2.76 1 30
362 Missouri 62.8% -2.94 0 35
363 Morgan State 62.4% -3.09 0 27