But anyone who ever had heart, they wouldn't turn around and break it. "Sweet Jane" - Lou Reed

Game Outcomes

Each point is a completed game — x: home team's season-to-date value entering the game, y: away team's. home win home loss

Predicts home win: AUC 0.68 (team entering with the better value wins 63% of games)

Based on 5499 of 5721 completed games where both teams entered with a season-to-date value.

Team Distribution

Season-to-date value for every team, with a density curve.

min 87.2 max 117.0 mean 103.4 std 5.3 (n=363)

Team Rankings

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# Team Defensive Efficiency z Pctl GP
1 Tennessee 87.2 -3.03 100 36
2 Houston 88.7 -2.75 100 37
3 UCLA 90.5 -2.42 99 37
4 VCU 91.8 -2.17 99 35
5 Rutgers 92.2 -2.10 99 34
6 Alabama 92.2 -2.09 99 37
7 Mississippi State 92.7 -2.01 98 34
8 Grambling 93.2 -1.90 98 31
9 Saint Mary's 93.3 -1.89 98 34
10 North Texas 93.5 -1.84 98 36
11 Sam Houston 93.8 -1.79 97 30
12 UConn 94.0 -1.77 97 39
13 Drake 94.2 -1.72 97 34
14 Charleston 94.3 -1.71 96 34
15 Hawai'i 94.3 -1.69 96 32
16 Iowa State 94.4 -1.68 96 33
17 Iona 94.6 -1.64 96 35
18 Bradley 95.0 -1.58 95 34
19 Southern Illinois 95.1 -1.56 95 32
20 Yale 95.1 -1.54 95 28
21 Merrimack 95.2 -1.54 94 32
22 Liberty 95.2 -1.54 94 33
23 Florida Atlantic 95.2 -1.53 94 37
24 Dayton 95.3 -1.52 94 34
25 San Diego State 95.4 -1.50 93 38
26 Utah Valley 95.4 -1.49 93 34
27 Illinois 95.6 -1.46 93 33
28 Utah 95.7 -1.44 93 32
29 Northwestern 95.7 -1.43 92 34
30 Oklahoma State 95.8 -1.42 92 36
31 Texas 95.9 -1.40 92 38
32 Kent State 95.9 -1.40 91 33
33 Boise State 95.9 -1.39 91 33
34 Fordham 96.0 -1.39 91 33
35 TCU 96.0 -1.38 91 35
36 Kansas 96.1 -1.37 90 36
37 Colorado 96.1 -1.36 90 35
38 UMass Lowell 96.1 -1.36 90 32
39 James Madison 96.2 -1.35 90 30
40 Arkansas 96.2 -1.34 89 36
41 Virginia 96.3 -1.33 89 33
42 UNC Greensboro 96.4 -1.31 89 30
43 Drexel 96.6 -1.27 88 31
44 Purdue 96.6 -1.27 88 35
45 Maryland Eastern Shore 96.7 -1.26 88 27
46 Duke 96.7 -1.24 88 36
47 Seton Hall 96.8 -1.24 87 32
48 UCF 96.8 -1.22 87 34
49 North Carolina Central 97.1 -1.17 87 26
50 Prairie View A&M 97.2 -1.16 86 30
51 Marshall 97.4 -1.12 86 31
52 Arizona State 97.4 -1.11 86 36
53 Arizona 97.4 -1.11 86 35
54 Harvard 97.5 -1.11 85 26
55 Kansas State 97.5 -1.10 85 36
56 UC Irvine 97.5 -1.10 85 33
57 Indiana State 97.7 -1.06 85 35
58 UAB 97.8 -1.04 84 38
59 Wagner 97.9 -1.03 84 26
60 Gardner-Webb 97.9 -1.03 84 29
61 Creighton 98.0 -1.01 83 37
62 Southern Miss 98.0 -1.00 83 30
63 Florida 98.1 -1.00 83 33
64 Memphis 98.2 -0.97 83 35
65 Hofstra 98.2 -0.96 82 34
66 Maryland 98.3 -0.96 82 35
67 Cal State Fullerton 98.3 -0.95 82 31
68 George Mason 98.4 -0.94 81 33
69 Auburn 98.7 -0.88 81 34
70 Texas A&M 98.7 -0.88 81 35
71 UNC Wilmington 98.7 -0.88 81 32
72 USC 98.8 -0.87 80 33
73 Southern 98.8 -0.87 80 30
74 Clemson 98.8 -0.86 80 34
75 Wisconsin 98.8 -0.86 80 35
76 Brown 98.9 -0.85 79 27
77 Oregon 99.0 -0.83 79 36
78 Montana State 99.0 -0.81 79 33
79 South Alabama 99.0 -0.81 78 33
80 BYU 99.0 -0.81 78 32
81 Texas Tech 99.2 -0.79 78 32
82 Wichita State 99.2 -0.78 78 32
83 Troy 99.2 -0.78 77 30
84 Charlotte 99.6 -0.72 77 36
85 Cincinnati 99.6 -0.71 77 35
86 Oral Roberts 99.7 -0.70 77 31
87 Quinnipiac 99.7 -0.70 76 31
88 Marquette 99.7 -0.69 76 36
89 Seattle U 99.7 -0.69 76 30
90 Longwood 99.7 -0.69 75 30
91 Siena 99.8 -0.67 75 32
92 UNLV 99.9 -0.66 75 31
93 California Baptist 99.9 -0.65 75 31
94 Princeton 99.9 -0.65 74 30
95 Missouri State 99.9 -0.65 74 31
96 UTEP 100.0 -0.64 74 30
97 Navy 100.0 -0.64 73 30
98 UC Davis 100.1 -0.62 73 30
99 UNC Asheville 100.2 -0.60 73 33
100 App State 100.2 -0.59 73 29
101 St. John's 100.4 -0.55 72 33
102 North Carolina 100.4 -0.55 72 33
103 Towson 100.5 -0.55 72 33
104 Washington 100.5 -0.53 72 32
105 Utah State 100.6 -0.53 71 34
106 Kentucky 100.6 -0.53 71 34
107 Northern Kentucky 100.6 -0.53 71 33
108 St. Bonaventure 100.6 -0.52 70 32
109 Indiana 100.6 -0.52 70 35
110 Richmond 100.6 -0.52 70 33
111 Nevada 100.6 -0.52 70 32
112 NC State 100.8 -0.48 69 34
113 Old Dominion 100.9 -0.47 69 30
114 Kennesaw State 100.9 -0.47 69 32
115 Stephen F. Austin 100.9 -0.47 69 29
116 UC Santa Barbara 101.0 -0.45 68 33
117 Michigan 101.0 -0.45 68 34
118 Robert Morris 101.1 -0.42 68 31
119 Boston University 101.2 -0.41 67 30
120 Oklahoma 101.2 -0.41 67 32
121 Massachusetts 101.2 -0.41 67 31
122 Butler 101.3 -0.40 67 32
123 Georgia Southern 101.3 -0.39 66 30
124 Washington State 101.3 -0.39 66 34
125 Marist 101.3 -0.39 66 33
126 Lafayette 101.4 -0.37 65 34
127 Louisiana 101.4 -0.36 65 31
128 SIU Edwardsville 101.4 -0.36 65 30
129 Akron 101.5 -0.36 65 31
130 West Virginia 101.5 -0.35 64 34
131 Wright State 101.6 -0.34 64 31
132 Vermont 101.6 -0.34 64 33
133 Texas Southern 101.6 -0.34 64 33
134 Weber State 101.6 -0.33 63 31
135 Nebraska 101.7 -0.32 63 32
136 Fairfield 101.8 -0.30 63 30
137 Alabama A&M 101.9 -0.28 62 30
138 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 101.9 -0.27 62 27
139 Mount St. Mary's 101.9 -0.27 62 32
140 Cal Poly 102.0 -0.27 62 31
141 Middle Tennessee 102.0 -0.25 61 31
142 Colgate 102.1 -0.24 61 34
143 Pittsburgh 102.1 -0.24 61 36
144 Morgan State 102.1 -0.24 60 27
145 Sacred Heart 102.1 -0.24 60 32
146 Mercer 102.1 -0.24 60 31
147 Cleveland State 102.1 -0.23 60 33
148 Long Beach State 102.2 -0.22 59 31
149 Michigan State 102.3 -0.20 59 34
150 Radford 102.3 -0.20 59 34
151 Alcorn State 102.4 -0.19 59 32
152 Santa Clara 102.4 -0.19 58 32
153 New Hampshire 102.4 -0.18 58 28
154 Rhode Island 102.4 -0.18 58 31
155 Stonehill 102.5 -0.17 57 30
156 St. Francis Brooklyn 102.5 -0.17 57 28
157 Tulane 102.5 -0.16 57 31
158 Providence 102.5 -0.16 57 33
159 Xavier 102.5 -0.16 56 37
160 Lehigh 102.6 -0.15 56 28
161 Temple 102.6 -0.14 56 32
162 Tarleton State 102.7 -0.14 56 30
163 South Florida 102.7 -0.13 55 32
164 Furman 102.7 -0.12 55 33
165 East Carolina 102.8 -0.11 55 33
166 Cal State Bakersfield 102.8 -0.11 54 31
167 New Mexico 102.8 -0.11 54 33
168 Saint Louis 102.8 -0.11 54 32
169 Howard 102.9 -0.10 54 32
170 Purdue Fort Wayne 102.9 -0.08 53 30
171 South Dakota State 103.0 -0.08 53 31
172 Lipscomb 103.0 -0.08 53 30
173 UC Riverside 103.0 -0.07 52 33
174 Gonzaga 103.0 -0.07 52 36
175 Duquesne 103.0 -0.07 52 33
176 Morehead State 103.1 -0.05 52 30
177 Eastern Kentucky 103.2 -0.04 51 34
178 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 103.2 -0.03 51 31
179 Ole Miss 103.3 -0.02 51 33
180 Bucknell 103.3 -0.01 51 31
181 Davidson 103.4 -0.00 50 31
182 Bryant 103.4 +0.00 50 28
183 Fresno State 103.4 +0.00 50 30
184 Stanford 103.4 +0.01 49 33
185 South Carolina Upstate 103.4 +0.01 49 30
186 Samford 103.4 +0.01 49 28
187 Ohio State 103.5 +0.02 49 35
188 Oregon State 103.6 +0.03 48 31
189 Villanova 103.6 +0.04 48 34
190 Niagara 103.6 +0.04 48 30
191 Norfolk State 103.6 +0.04 48 29
192 Saint Joseph's 103.7 +0.06 47 33
193 Milwaukee 103.7 +0.06 47 31
194 Baylor 103.7 +0.06 47 34
195 Miami 103.7 +0.06 46 37
196 Saint Peter's 103.7 +0.07 46 31
197 American University 103.8 +0.07 46 32
198 UIC 103.8 +0.08 46 31
199 Belmont 103.9 +0.09 45 31
200 Grand Canyon 103.9 +0.10 45 33
201 Youngstown State 103.9 +0.11 45 32
202 Air Force 104.0 +0.11 44 32
203 San Francisco 104.0 +0.11 44 33
204 Army 104.0 +0.12 44 31
205 Northern Iowa 104.0 +0.12 44 31
206 Southern Utah 104.1 +0.13 43 33
207 Texas State 104.1 +0.14 43 32
208 Boston College 104.2 +0.15 43 33
209 Virginia Tech 104.2 +0.15 43 34
210 Tennessee State 104.2 +0.16 42 28
211 Florida Gulf Coast 104.2 +0.16 42 31
212 Wake Forest 104.3 +0.17 42 33
213 Rider 104.3 +0.17 41 29
214 Southeast Missouri State 104.3 +0.18 41 33
215 San José State 104.4 +0.19 41 34
216 Georgia 104.4 +0.20 41 32
217 UT Martin 104.5 +0.20 40 29
218 Manhattan 104.5 +0.21 40 29
219 Eastern Washington 104.5 +0.21 40 33
220 Penn State 104.5 +0.21 40 37
221 Western Kentucky 104.6 +0.22 39 31
222 Jackson State 104.7 +0.24 39 33
223 East Tennessee State 104.7 +0.25 39 30
224 Louisiana Tech 104.7 +0.26 38 30
225 Nicholls 104.8 +0.27 38 27
226 Georgia State 104.8 +0.28 38 28
227 La Salle 104.9 +0.29 38 34
228 Pennsylvania 105.0 +0.31 37 29
229 Northwestern State 105.0 +0.31 37 32
230 UT Arlington 105.0 +0.31 37 29
231 Dartmouth 105.2 +0.34 36 26
232 Delaware 105.3 +0.36 36 32
233 Maine 105.3 +0.37 36 28
234 Missouri 105.4 +0.37 36 35
235 Holy Cross 105.5 +0.39 35 30
236 Western Carolina 105.5 +0.39 35 31
237 Campbell 105.5 +0.40 35 32
238 SMU 105.6 +0.42 35 32
239 Jacksonville 105.6 +0.42 34 26
240 Utah Tech 105.6 +0.43 34 30
241 Illinois State 105.6 +0.43 34 32
242 Alabama State 105.7 +0.43 33 30
243 Ohio 105.7 +0.44 33 32
244 Florida International 105.7 +0.44 33 30
245 Loyola Marymount 105.7 +0.44 33 30
246 Canisius 105.8 +0.45 32 29
247 Arkansas State 105.9 +0.46 32 30
248 Valparaiso 105.9 +0.47 32 31
249 Northeastern 105.9 +0.47 31 30
250 Vanderbilt 105.9 +0.48 31 37
251 Iowa 106.0 +0.49 31 33
252 Syracuse 106.0 +0.50 31 32
253 Northern Illinois 106.0 +0.50 30 30
254 Georgia Tech 106.1 +0.50 30 31
255 Abilene Christian 106.1 +0.50 30 26
256 Ball State 106.1 +0.51 30 30
257 Cornell 106.1 +0.52 29 26
258 New Mexico State 106.2 +0.52 29 21
259 Central Connecticut 106.2 +0.53 29 32
260 Eastern Illinois 106.2 +0.54 28 29
261 Tennessee Tech 106.3 +0.54 28 30
262 Idaho State 106.3 +0.54 28 30
263 Colorado State 106.3 +0.54 28 32
264 LSU 106.3 +0.56 27 33
265 Kansas City 106.4 +0.57 27 30
266 Buffalo 106.5 +0.59 27 30
267 UMBC 106.6 +0.61 27 31
268 Cal State Northridge 106.7 +0.62 26 30
269 UL Monroe 106.7 +0.63 26 29
270 Stony Brook 106.8 +0.65 26 31
271 Southern Indiana 106.9 +0.66 25 30
272 Jacksonville State 106.9 +0.66 25 28
273 Murray State 107.0 +0.67 25 31
274 St. Thomas-Minnesota 107.0 +0.69 25 31
275 Montana 107.0 +0.69 24 30
276 Central Michigan 107.1 +0.70 24 29
277 Sacramento State 107.1 +0.70 24 30
278 Fairleigh Dickinson 107.2 +0.71 23 35
279 Chattanooga 107.3 +0.73 23 32
280 Loyola Chicago 107.3 +0.73 23 31
281 Binghamton 107.3 +0.74 23 29
282 North Dakota State 107.4 +0.75 22 31
283 Loyola Maryland 107.4 +0.76 22 31
284 SE Louisiana 107.5 +0.77 22 29
285 Queens University 107.6 +0.79 22 30
286 Western Illinois 107.7 +0.80 21 27
287 Florida A&M 107.7 +0.81 21 27
288 UC San Diego 107.8 +0.82 21 28
289 Lindenwood 107.8 +0.83 20 29
290 High Point 107.8 +0.84 20 29
291 Minnesota 107.9 +0.85 20 31
292 Denver 107.9 +0.85 20 30
293 Mississippi Valley State 108.0 +0.87 19 32
294 Presbyterian 108.0 +0.87 19 30
295 Toledo 108.0 +0.87 19 34
296 North Carolina A&T 108.0 +0.88 19 29
297 Incarnate Word 108.4 +0.95 18 28
298 Elon 108.5 +0.96 18 30
299 Columbia 108.5 +0.97 18 27
300 Saint Francis 108.7 +0.99 17 29
301 East Texas A&M 108.8 +1.02 17 32
302 California 108.9 +1.03 17 32
303 Portland State 109.0 +1.06 17 29
304 George Washington 109.0 +1.06 16 31
305 DePaul 109.0 +1.06 16 33
306 Evansville 109.0 +1.06 16 32
307 Pepperdine 109.0 +1.06 15 29
308 Delaware State 109.1 +1.07 15 28
309 Wyoming 109.1 +1.07 15 30
310 North Alabama 109.2 +1.10 15 30
311 Bethune-Cookman 109.3 +1.10 14 30
312 NJIT 109.4 +1.12 14 29
313 Monmouth 109.4 +1.13 14 33
314 UT Rio Grande Valley 109.4 +1.14 14 28
315 Pacific 109.7 +1.19 13 31
316 Notre Dame 109.9 +1.22 13 32
317 William & Mary 109.9 +1.22 13 31
318 Rice 110.0 +1.23 12 32
319 North Dakota 110.1 +1.26 12 31
320 South Carolina 110.1 +1.26 12 32
321 New Orleans 110.2 +1.27 12 30
322 The Citadel 110.5 +1.33 11 31
323 Portland 110.6 +1.35 11 31
324 Austin Peay 110.6 +1.35 11 28
325 Bellarmine 110.6 +1.35 10 30
326 Oakland 110.6 +1.35 10 31
327 Detroit Mercy 110.6 +1.35 10 32
328 Little Rock 110.8 +1.38 10 29
329 Florida State 110.8 +1.39 9 32
330 Wofford 111.1 +1.45 9 30
331 Idaho 111.2 +1.46 9 30
332 Bowling Green 111.2 +1.47 9 29
333 Northern Arizona 111.2 +1.47 8 33
334 South Dakota 111.3 +1.48 8 29
335 Lamar 111.3 +1.49 8 28
336 Northern Colorado 111.4 +1.50 7 31
337 UTSA 111.4 +1.50 7 30
338 Georgetown 111.4 +1.51 7 32
339 McNeese 111.6 +1.54 7 33
340 Tulsa 111.8 +1.57 6 30
341 Miami (OH) 111.8 +1.58 6 29
342 Omaha 111.9 +1.60 6 31
343 Stetson 112.0 +1.61 6 29
344 Coppin State 112.1 +1.64 5 32
345 Long Island University 112.1 +1.64 5 27
346 Central Arkansas 112.1 +1.64 5 30
347 Hampton 112.2 +1.65 4 31
348 UAlbany 112.2 +1.65 4 29
349 Coastal Carolina 112.3 +1.67 4 28
350 Winthrop 112.4 +1.70 4 30
351 Chicago State 112.5 +1.70 3 27
352 Charleston Southern 113.2 +1.85 3 29
353 Louisville 113.3 +1.85 3 32
354 North Florida 113.4 +1.88 2 29
355 Hartford 113.5 +1.90 2 25
356 South Carolina State 114.5 +2.08 2 30
357 Western Michigan 114.5 +2.09 2 28
358 Eastern Michigan 114.8 +2.14 1 30
359 Green Bay 115.0 +2.18 1 32
360 San Diego 115.5 +2.27 1 29
361 IU Indianapolis 115.6 +2.30 1 30
362 VMI 116.4 +2.44 0 29
363 Houston Christian 117.0 +2.56 0 29