What ever happened to Leon Trotsky? "No More Heroes" - The Stranglers

Game Outcomes

Each point is a completed game — x: home team's season-to-date value entering the game, y: away team's. home win home loss

Predicts home win: AUC 0.65 (team entering with the better value wins 61% of games)

Based on 5499 of 5721 completed games where both teams entered with a season-to-date value.

Team Distribution

Season-to-date value for every team, with a density curve.

min 0.60 max 1.84 mean 1.04 std 0.21 (n=363)

Team Rankings

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# Team Assist-to-Turnover Ratio z Pctl GP
1 Virginia 1.84 +3.89 100 33
2 Colgate 1.76 +3.50 100 34
3 Iowa 1.66 +3.03 99 33
4 Marquette 1.62 +2.80 99 36
5 Virginia Tech 1.57 +2.58 99 34
6 Xavier 1.54 +2.41 99 37
7 Marshall 1.53 +2.39 98 31
8 Toledo 1.53 +2.38 98 34
9 Penn State 1.53 +2.38 98 37
10 Oral Roberts 1.52 +2.34 98 31
11 Gonzaga 1.50 +2.22 97 36
12 Liberty 1.47 +2.10 97 33
13 Houston 1.47 +2.09 97 37
14 Furman 1.46 +2.06 96 33
15 Vermont 1.45 +2.01 96 33
16 UCLA 1.45 +1.99 96 37
17 Cincinnati 1.43 +1.91 96 35
18 Missouri 1.43 +1.91 95 35
19 Colorado State 1.42 +1.87 95 32
20 Iona 1.42 +1.83 95 35
21 Arizona 1.41 +1.82 94 35
22 Cornell 1.40 +1.75 94 26
23 Purdue 1.40 +1.73 94 35
24 UMBC 1.40 +1.73 94 31
25 Tennessee 1.39 +1.72 93 36
26 Texas 1.39 +1.68 93 38
27 Tulane 1.38 +1.66 93 31
28 Nevada 1.37 +1.58 93 32
29 UConn 1.36 +1.55 92 39
30 TCU 1.36 +1.54 92 35
31 NC State 1.36 +1.53 92 34
32 Creighton 1.35 +1.52 91 37
33 Utah State 1.35 +1.52 91 34
34 Notre Dame 1.35 +1.50 91 32
35 Saint Louis 1.34 +1.48 91 32
36 Wisconsin 1.34 +1.48 90 35
37 Michigan State 1.34 +1.47 90 34
38 Youngstown State 1.34 +1.47 90 32
39 Lafayette 1.33 +1.42 90 34
40 Kansas 1.33 +1.40 89 36
41 Northwestern 1.33 +1.39 89 34
42 Indiana 1.33 +1.39 89 35
43 Rutgers 1.32 +1.36 88 34
44 Belmont 1.31 +1.30 88 31
45 Georgia Tech 1.31 +1.29 88 31
46 Miami 1.30 +1.27 88 37
47 Western Illinois 1.29 +1.21 87 27
48 Clemson 1.29 +1.21 87 34
49 Indiana State 1.29 +1.20 87 35
50 Hofstra 1.29 +1.20 86 34
51 Kentucky 1.28 +1.16 86 34
52 Duquesne 1.28 +1.16 86 33
53 Navy 1.28 +1.15 86 30
54 Pittsburgh 1.27 +1.13 85 36
55 Dayton 1.26 +1.07 85 34
56 Air Force 1.26 +1.05 85 32
57 Providence 1.25 +1.00 85 33
58 Drake 1.24 +0.99 84 34
59 UC Santa Barbara 1.24 +0.96 84 33
60 Stetson 1.23 +0.94 84 29
61 St. Thomas-Minnesota 1.23 +0.94 83 31
62 Fairleigh Dickinson 1.23 +0.93 83 35
63 Syracuse 1.23 +0.92 83 32
64 Charlotte 1.23 +0.92 83 36
65 Kansas State 1.23 +0.90 82 36
66 Chattanooga 1.22 +0.88 82 32
67 Yale 1.22 +0.87 82 28
68 Arizona State 1.22 +0.87 81 36
69 Duke 1.22 +0.86 81 36
70 Northern Arizona 1.22 +0.85 81 33
71 Davidson 1.21 +0.83 81 31
72 Florida Atlantic 1.21 +0.83 80 37
73 Abilene Christian 1.21 +0.81 80 26
74 Utah 1.20 +0.77 80 32
75 New Mexico 1.19 +0.71 80 33
76 Stanford 1.19 +0.71 79 33
77 Southern Miss 1.18 +0.68 79 30
78 Saint Mary's 1.18 +0.66 79 34
79 Baylor 1.17 +0.63 78 34
80 Memphis 1.17 +0.62 78 35
81 Northern Kentucky 1.17 +0.61 78 33
82 Michigan 1.16 +0.59 78 34
83 Canisius 1.16 +0.58 77 29
84 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 1.16 +0.57 77 31
85 Akron 1.16 +0.57 77 31
86 Auburn 1.16 +0.56 77 34
87 Princeton 1.15 +0.54 76 30
88 Wright State 1.15 +0.54 76 31
89 South Alabama 1.15 +0.51 76 33
90 UC Irvine 1.15 +0.51 75 33
91 UNC Greensboro 1.14 +0.51 75 30
92 Towson 1.14 +0.49 75 33
93 New Hampshire 1.13 +0.45 75 28
94 Minnesota 1.13 +0.44 74 31
95 Louisiana 1.13 +0.43 74 31
96 Little Rock 1.13 +0.42 74 29
97 Bellarmine 1.13 +0.42 73 30
98 Charleston 1.13 +0.41 73 34
99 Kennesaw State 1.12 +0.40 73 32
100 Pennsylvania 1.12 +0.40 73 29
101 Lipscomb 1.12 +0.39 72 30
102 Bradley 1.12 +0.38 72 34
103 North Carolina 1.12 +0.38 72 33
104 Eastern Kentucky 1.12 +0.36 72 34
105 SE Louisiana 1.11 +0.36 71 29
106 Rice 1.11 +0.36 71 32
107 Wake Forest 1.11 +0.35 71 33
108 Oakland 1.11 +0.35 70 31
109 Cleveland State 1.11 +0.34 70 33
110 Mississippi State 1.11 +0.34 70 34
111 Florida State 1.11 +0.33 70 32
112 Montana 1.11 +0.33 69 30
113 Western Carolina 1.10 +0.29 69 31
114 Utah Valley 1.10 +0.29 69 34
115 Portland 1.10 +0.29 69 31
116 Villanova 1.10 +0.28 68 34
117 UAB 1.10 +0.28 68 38
118 Wofford 1.10 +0.28 68 30
119 California Baptist 1.10 +0.27 67 31
120 Florida 1.10 +0.27 67 33
121 Santa Clara 1.10 +0.27 67 32
122 Ohio State 1.09 +0.25 67 35
123 Florida Gulf Coast 1.09 +0.25 66 31
124 Eastern Washington 1.09 +0.23 66 33
125 Murray State 1.09 +0.23 66 31
126 Tennessee Tech 1.09 +0.23 65 30
127 Central Connecticut 1.09 +0.22 65 32
128 San Diego State 1.09 +0.22 65 38
129 App State 1.09 +0.22 65 29
130 San Diego 1.09 +0.22 64 29
131 USC 1.09 +0.22 64 33
132 Southern Illinois 1.09 +0.21 64 32
133 Oregon 1.08 +0.21 64 36
134 Alabama 1.08 +0.21 63 37
135 St. John's 1.08 +0.20 63 33
136 East Texas A&M 1.08 +0.17 63 32
137 Vanderbilt 1.08 +0.17 62 37
138 Kent State 1.08 +0.17 62 33
139 Pacific 1.08 +0.17 62 31
140 Ole Miss 1.07 +0.16 62 33
141 Fresno State 1.07 +0.15 61 30
142 DePaul 1.07 +0.14 61 33
143 Iowa State 1.07 +0.14 61 33
144 Ohio 1.07 +0.14 60 32
145 Maryland 1.07 +0.13 60 35
146 Butler 1.07 +0.12 60 32
147 Portland State 1.07 +0.12 60 29
148 Wichita State 1.06 +0.10 59 32
149 Valparaiso 1.06 +0.10 59 31
150 Bowling Green 1.06 +0.08 59 29
151 Richmond 1.06 +0.08 59 33
152 UC Riverside 1.06 +0.08 58 33
153 Delaware 1.06 +0.07 58 32
154 SMU 1.06 +0.07 58 32
155 Northwestern State 1.06 +0.07 57 32
156 Queens University 1.05 +0.05 57 30
157 Saint Francis 1.05 +0.03 57 29
158 Southeast Missouri State 1.04 +0.02 57 33
159 Ball State 1.04 +0.01 56 30
160 Idaho State 1.04 +0.01 56 30
161 South Dakota 1.04 +0.00 56 29
162 Pepperdine 1.04 -0.00 56 29
163 UCF 1.04 -0.02 55 34
164 Long Beach State 1.04 -0.02 55 31
165 Brown 1.04 -0.02 55 27
166 Jacksonville 1.04 -0.02 54 26
167 Western Kentucky 1.04 -0.02 54 31
168 Morehead State 1.03 -0.04 54 30
169 Tennessee State 1.03 -0.05 54 28
170 Detroit Mercy 1.03 -0.05 53 32
171 Nebraska 1.03 -0.06 53 32
172 North Florida 1.03 -0.07 53 29
173 Maine 1.03 -0.08 52 28
174 UIC 1.03 -0.08 52 31
175 Robert Morris 1.02 -0.09 52 31
176 Texas A&M 1.02 -0.10 52 35
177 Boston College 1.02 -0.10 51 33
178 NJIT 1.02 -0.11 51 29
179 Campbell 1.02 -0.11 51 32
180 Eastern Illinois 1.02 -0.11 51 29
181 Sacramento State 1.02 -0.11 50 30
182 Arkansas State 1.02 -0.12 50 30
183 Longwood 1.02 -0.12 50 30
184 Temple 1.02 -0.12 49 32
185 UMass Lowell 1.01 -0.13 49 32
186 Troy 1.01 -0.14 49 30
187 Quinnipiac 1.01 -0.15 49 31
188 Arkansas 1.01 -0.16 48 36
189 San José State 1.01 -0.16 48 34
190 George Washington 1.01 -0.17 48 31
191 West Virginia 1.00 -0.18 48 34
192 Austin Peay 1.00 -0.18 47 28
193 LSU 1.00 -0.19 47 33
194 Sacred Heart 1.00 -0.20 47 32
195 George Mason 1.00 -0.21 46 33
196 East Carolina 1.00 -0.22 46 33
197 North Dakota 0.99 -0.24 46 31
198 Montana State 0.99 -0.25 46 33
199 UNLV 0.99 -0.25 45 31
200 Boise State 0.99 -0.25 45 33
201 Drexel 0.99 -0.25 45 31
202 Washington State 0.99 -0.26 44 34
203 Radford 0.99 -0.26 44 34
204 BYU 0.98 -0.28 44 32
205 South Florida 0.98 -0.29 44 32
206 Holy Cross 0.98 -0.29 43 30
207 Colorado 0.98 -0.29 43 35
208 Miami (OH) 0.98 -0.30 43 29
209 Nicholls 0.98 -0.32 43 27
210 UT Martin 0.97 -0.32 42 29
211 VCU 0.97 -0.32 42 35
212 Oklahoma 0.97 -0.32 42 32
213 Siena 0.97 -0.33 41 32
214 American University 0.97 -0.33 41 32
215 Mercer 0.97 -0.33 41 31
216 Buffalo 0.97 -0.34 41 30
217 Harvard 0.97 -0.34 40 26
218 Hampton 0.97 -0.34 40 31
219 Georgetown 0.97 -0.35 40 32
220 Seattle U 0.97 -0.35 40 30
221 Bucknell 0.97 -0.35 39 31
222 Lehigh 0.97 -0.36 39 28
223 Grand Canyon 0.96 -0.37 39 33
224 Loyola Maryland 0.96 -0.37 38 31
225 Army 0.96 -0.38 38 31
226 Rider 0.96 -0.38 38 29
227 North Alabama 0.96 -0.39 38 30
228 Illinois 0.96 -0.39 37 33
229 La Salle 0.96 -0.42 37 34
230 Missouri State 0.95 -0.42 37 31
231 Massachusetts 0.95 -0.42 36 31
232 Northern Iowa 0.95 -0.43 36 31
233 North Dakota State 0.95 -0.44 36 31
234 UC San Diego 0.95 -0.44 36 28
235 Saint Joseph's 0.95 -0.45 35 33
236 Wagner 0.95 -0.46 35 26
237 Charleston Southern 0.95 -0.46 35 29
238 Elon 0.95 -0.47 35 30
239 William & Mary 0.94 -0.47 34 31
240 Texas Tech 0.94 -0.49 34 32
241 Idaho 0.94 -0.49 34 30
242 North Texas 0.94 -0.49 33 36
243 Northern Colorado 0.94 -0.50 33 31
244 Western Michigan 0.94 -0.50 33 28
245 St. Bonaventure 0.94 -0.50 33 32
246 Purdue Fort Wayne 0.94 -0.50 32 30
247 Fordham 0.94 -0.50 32 33
248 Old Dominion 0.93 -0.53 32 30
249 Bryant 0.92 -0.57 31 28
250 Loyola Chicago 0.92 -0.58 31 31
251 Southern Indiana 0.92 -0.60 31 30
252 Omaha 0.92 -0.61 31 31
253 Coastal Carolina 0.92 -0.61 30 28
254 James Madison 0.91 -0.62 30 30
255 Manhattan 0.91 -0.62 30 29
256 Samford 0.91 -0.63 30 28
257 Marist 0.91 -0.63 29 33
258 Houston Christian 0.91 -0.63 29 29
259 Central Arkansas 0.91 -0.64 29 30
260 Southern 0.91 -0.65 28 30
261 East Tennessee State 0.91 -0.65 28 30
262 San Francisco 0.91 -0.66 28 33
263 Georgia Southern 0.91 -0.66 28 30
264 South Dakota State 0.90 -0.67 27 31
265 Stephen F. Austin 0.90 -0.67 27 29
266 UT Arlington 0.90 -0.68 27 29
267 UL Monroe 0.90 -0.69 27 29
268 The Citadel 0.90 -0.70 26 31
269 SIU Edwardsville 0.90 -0.71 26 30
270 Sam Houston 0.90 -0.71 26 30
271 Wyoming 0.90 -0.71 25 30
272 Seton Hall 0.89 -0.71 25 32
273 Oklahoma State 0.89 -0.73 25 36
274 Mount St. Mary's 0.89 -0.73 25 32
275 Stonehill 0.89 -0.73 24 30
276 Hawai'i 0.89 -0.74 24 32
277 Tarleton State 0.89 -0.75 24 30
278 UNC Asheville 0.89 -0.75 23 33
279 South Carolina State 0.89 -0.75 23 30
280 North Carolina A&T 0.89 -0.76 23 29
281 Gardner-Webb 0.89 -0.76 23 29
282 Niagara 0.88 -0.77 22 30
283 Loyola Marymount 0.88 -0.77 22 30
284 Howard 0.88 -0.78 22 32
285 Norfolk State 0.88 -0.79 22 29
286 Tulsa 0.88 -0.80 21 30
287 Lamar 0.88 -0.80 21 28
288 Merrimack 0.87 -0.81 21 32
289 Northeastern 0.87 -0.82 20 30
290 Stony Brook 0.87 -0.84 20 31
291 Binghamton 0.87 -0.84 20 29
292 New Mexico State 0.87 -0.84 20 21
293 High Point 0.87 -0.85 19 29
294 UAlbany 0.87 -0.86 19 29
295 Maryland Eastern Shore 0.86 -0.88 19 27
296 South Carolina Upstate 0.86 -0.89 19 30
297 Jacksonville State 0.86 -0.90 18 28
298 Northern Illinois 0.86 -0.90 18 30
299 Louisiana Tech 0.85 -0.91 18 30
300 Dartmouth 0.85 -0.92 17 26
301 UT Rio Grande Valley 0.85 -0.93 17 28
302 Southern Utah 0.85 -0.94 17 33
303 New Orleans 0.85 -0.94 17 30
304 Morgan State 0.85 -0.94 16 27
305 Georgia 0.85 -0.95 16 32
306 South Carolina 0.84 -0.96 16 32
307 Incarnate Word 0.84 -0.97 15 28
308 Bethune-Cookman 0.84 -0.98 15 30
309 Texas State 0.84 -0.98 15 32
310 Cal State Fullerton 0.84 -0.98 15 31
311 Evansville 0.84 -0.99 14 32
312 Grambling 0.83 -1.01 14 31
313 Milwaukee 0.83 -1.01 14 31
314 Monmouth 0.83 -1.01 14 33
315 Boston University 0.83 -1.02 13 30
316 Saint Peter's 0.83 -1.05 13 31
317 Washington 0.82 -1.07 13 32
318 Utah Tech 0.82 -1.08 12 30
319 Middle Tennessee 0.82 -1.08 12 31
320 Weber State 0.82 -1.10 12 31
321 UNC Wilmington 0.81 -1.10 12 32
322 North Carolina Central 0.81 -1.11 11 26
323 Florida International 0.81 -1.11 11 30
324 Long Island University 0.81 -1.12 11 27
325 Winthrop 0.81 -1.14 10 30
326 UC Davis 0.80 -1.15 10 30
327 St. Francis Brooklyn 0.80 -1.15 10 28
328 Lindenwood 0.80 -1.15 10 29
329 Prairie View A&M 0.80 -1.16 9 30
330 Alabama A&M 0.80 -1.17 9 30
331 VMI 0.80 -1.18 9 29
332 Eastern Michigan 0.80 -1.18 9 30
333 Cal State Bakersfield 0.80 -1.18 8 31
334 Rhode Island 0.79 -1.20 8 31
335 Jackson State 0.79 -1.22 8 33
336 Georgia State 0.79 -1.24 7 28
337 Hartford 0.78 -1.25 7 25
338 Green Bay 0.78 -1.26 7 32
339 Alcorn State 0.78 -1.26 7 32
340 Fairfield 0.77 -1.31 6 30
341 Chicago State 0.77 -1.34 6 27
342 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 0.76 -1.35 6 27
343 Columbia 0.76 -1.36 6 27
344 Texas Southern 0.76 -1.37 5 33
345 Presbyterian 0.76 -1.39 5 30
346 Denver 0.76 -1.39 5 30
347 Alabama State 0.76 -1.39 4 30
348 Coppin State 0.75 -1.39 4 32
349 UTSA 0.75 -1.40 4 30
350 Illinois State 0.74 -1.46 4 32
351 California 0.74 -1.47 3 32
352 McNeese 0.74 -1.48 3 33
353 Cal Poly 0.73 -1.52 3 31
354 UTEP 0.72 -1.55 2 30
355 Delaware State 0.72 -1.55 2 28
356 Oregon State 0.72 -1.56 2 31
357 Cal State Northridge 0.70 -1.67 2 30
358 IU Indianapolis 0.69 -1.73 1 30
359 Kansas City 0.68 -1.78 1 30
360 Central Michigan 0.67 -1.80 1 29
361 Louisville 0.63 -2.02 1 32
362 Mississippi Valley State 0.62 -2.05 0 32
363 Florida A&M 0.60 -2.13 0 27