Four young chiquitas in Omaha waitin' for the band to return from the show. "We're an American Band" - Grand Funk Railroad

Game Outcomes

Each point is a completed game — x: home team's season-to-date value entering the game, y: away team's. home win home loss

Predicts home win: AUC 0.59 (team entering with the better value wins 57% of games)

Based on 5499 of 5721 completed games where both teams entered with a season-to-date value.

Team Distribution

Season-to-date value for every team, with a density curve.

min 37.0% max 68.8% mean 50.8% std 5.0% (n=363)

Team Rankings

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# Team Assisted Field Goal Percentage z Pctl GP
1 Lafayette 68.8% +3.60 100 34
2 Tennessee 66.2% +3.07 100 36
3 Virginia 65.4% +2.92 99 33
4 Air Force 64.9% +2.83 99 32
5 Arizona 64.7% +2.78 99 35
6 Kansas State 63.6% +2.55 99 36
7 Xavier 63.6% +2.55 98 37
8 UConn 63.2% +2.48 98 39
9 Minnesota 63.1% +2.45 98 31
10 Dayton 62.2% +2.27 98 34
11 Utah State 61.7% +2.17 97 34
12 Colorado State 61.5% +2.14 97 32
13 Purdue 61.3% +2.10 97 35
14 Colgate 60.8% +2.00 96 34
15 Southern Illinois 59.2% +1.68 96 32
16 Marquette 59.1% +1.66 96 36
17 Mississippi State 59.1% +1.65 96 34
18 Rutgers 59.1% +1.65 95 34
19 Kansas 58.9% +1.62 95 36
20 Nevada 58.7% +1.58 95 32
21 TCU 58.5% +1.55 94 35
22 Saint Louis 58.5% +1.54 94 32
23 Temple 58.5% +1.54 94 32
24 Stanford 58.5% +1.53 94 33
25 Cornell 58.4% +1.52 93 26
26 Utah 58.4% +1.52 93 32
27 Liberty 58.3% +1.50 93 33
28 Abilene Christian 58.2% +1.48 93 26
29 Furman 58.2% +1.47 92 33
30 Chattanooga 58.1% +1.45 92 32
31 Iowa 57.5% +1.34 92 33
32 Merrimack 57.4% +1.33 91 32
33 Creighton 57.3% +1.30 91 37
34 Portland 57.1% +1.27 91 31
35 Marshall 57.0% +1.24 91 31
36 Indiana State 56.9% +1.22 90 35
37 Utah Valley 56.8% +1.20 90 34
38 Virginia Tech 56.7% +1.18 90 34
39 Long Island University 56.7% +1.18 90 27
40 Texas 56.7% +1.18 89 38
41 Arizona State 56.6% +1.16 89 36
42 Missouri 56.6% +1.16 89 35
43 UIC 56.6% +1.15 88 31
44 Michigan State 56.5% +1.15 88 34
45 Loyola Chicago 56.5% +1.15 88 31
46 George Mason 56.5% +1.14 88 33
47 Houston Christian 56.4% +1.12 87 29
48 Tulane 56.3% +1.11 87 31
49 Southern 56.3% +1.11 87 30
50 Southern Miss 56.3% +1.10 86 30
51 East Carolina 56.3% +1.10 86 33
52 Duquesne 56.3% +1.10 86 33
53 Bellarmine 56.2% +1.08 86 30
54 Duke 56.2% +1.08 85 36
55 Navy 56.2% +1.07 85 30
56 Sacramento State 56.0% +1.03 85 30
57 UNC Greensboro 55.8% +1.01 85 30
58 Eastern Washington 55.7% +0.98 84 33
59 UT Arlington 55.6% +0.96 84 29
60 Canisius 55.6% +0.95 84 29
61 American University 55.5% +0.95 83 32
62 California Baptist 55.5% +0.95 83 31
63 UCF 55.3% +0.90 83 34
64 UT Rio Grande Valley 55.3% +0.90 83 28
65 Maryland Eastern Shore 55.2% +0.89 82 27
66 Howard 55.2% +0.88 82 32
67 New Orleans 55.2% +0.88 82 30
68 Morehead State 55.1% +0.87 81 30
69 Kentucky 55.1% +0.87 81 34
70 Eastern Illinois 55.0% +0.84 81 29
71 Baylor 54.9% +0.82 81 34
72 Iowa State 54.8% +0.80 80 33
73 Auburn 54.7% +0.79 80 34
74 Pittsburgh 54.7% +0.79 80 36
75 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 54.7% +0.78 80 31
76 Massachusetts 54.6% +0.76 79 31
77 Brown 54.5% +0.75 79 27
78 DePaul 54.5% +0.75 79 33
79 Little Rock 54.4% +0.72 78 29
80 Memphis 54.4% +0.72 78 35
81 Cincinnati 54.3% +0.71 78 35
82 Northern Kentucky 54.3% +0.70 78 33
83 Rice 54.3% +0.69 77 32
84 Alabama 54.3% +0.69 77 37
85 Pennsylvania 54.2% +0.69 77 29
86 Belmont 54.2% +0.68 77 31
87 Northwestern 54.2% +0.68 76 34
88 Morgan State 54.2% +0.68 76 27
89 Loyola Maryland 54.1% +0.67 76 31
90 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 54.1% +0.67 75 27
91 East Texas A&M 54.1% +0.66 75 32
92 Tennessee Tech 54.0% +0.65 75 30
93 Georgia Tech 54.0% +0.64 75 31
94 Robert Morris 54.0% +0.63 74 31
95 Clemson 53.9% +0.63 74 34
96 Houston 53.9% +0.62 74 37
97 Kennesaw State 53.8% +0.61 73 32
98 SMU 53.8% +0.61 73 32
99 Valparaiso 53.7% +0.59 73 31
100 Indiana 53.6% +0.57 73 35
101 Florida State 53.6% +0.57 72 32
102 Towson 53.6% +0.56 72 33
103 Jacksonville 53.6% +0.56 72 26
104 Bucknell 53.5% +0.55 72 31
105 Providence 53.5% +0.54 71 33
106 Siena 53.4% +0.52 71 32
107 Green Bay 53.4% +0.51 71 32
108 Oklahoma 53.3% +0.51 70 32
109 BYU 53.3% +0.51 70 32
110 Fresno State 53.2% +0.49 70 30
111 Hartford 53.2% +0.48 70 25
112 Davidson 53.1% +0.47 69 31
113 Arkansas State 53.1% +0.47 69 30
114 Iona 53.1% +0.47 69 35
115 Stephen F. Austin 53.1% +0.47 69 29
116 Charlotte 53.1% +0.47 68 36
117 Northeastern 52.9% +0.43 68 30
118 Monmouth 52.9% +0.43 68 33
119 UMBC 52.9% +0.43 67 31
120 Ole Miss 52.9% +0.43 67 33
121 Miami (OH) 52.9% +0.42 67 29
122 LSU 52.9% +0.42 67 33
123 Lamar 52.8% +0.41 66 28
124 Harvard 52.8% +0.40 66 26
125 UC Santa Barbara 52.8% +0.40 66 33
126 VCU 52.8% +0.40 65 35
127 Syracuse 52.7% +0.38 65 32
128 Mount St. Mary's 52.7% +0.38 65 32
129 UC Irvine 52.6% +0.37 65 33
130 Texas A&M 52.6% +0.36 64 35
131 Vermont 52.5% +0.34 64 33
132 Fordham 52.4% +0.33 64 33
133 Butler 52.3% +0.30 64 32
134 Stonehill 52.3% +0.30 63 30
135 Central Connecticut 52.2% +0.29 63 32
136 Stony Brook 52.2% +0.28 63 31
137 Saint Francis 52.2% +0.28 62 29
138 Troy 52.1% +0.27 62 30
139 UCLA 52.1% +0.26 62 37
140 Oregon 52.1% +0.26 62 36
141 USC 52.0% +0.25 61 33
142 Western Illinois 51.9% +0.23 61 27
143 Penn State 51.9% +0.23 61 37
144 South Carolina State 51.7% +0.18 60 30
145 Oklahoma State 51.7% +0.18 60 36
146 St. John's 51.5% +0.15 60 33
147 Wichita State 51.5% +0.15 60 32
148 Manhattan 51.4% +0.13 59 29
149 Seton Hall 51.4% +0.12 59 32
150 UMass Lowell 51.3% +0.11 59 32
151 Fairleigh Dickinson 51.3% +0.10 59 35
152 St. Francis Brooklyn 51.2% +0.09 58 28
153 Akron 51.2% +0.09 58 31
154 Southeast Missouri State 51.2% +0.09 58 33
155 UL Monroe 51.2% +0.08 57 29
156 Utah Tech 51.2% +0.08 57 30
157 Sacred Heart 51.1% +0.07 57 32
158 Richmond 51.1% +0.07 57 33
159 North Carolina Central 51.1% +0.07 56 26
160 Florida Atlantic 51.1% +0.07 56 37
161 Maine 51.1% +0.06 56 28
162 Nebraska 51.0% +0.05 56 32
163 Long Beach State 51.0% +0.04 55 31
164 Queens University 50.9% +0.03 55 30
165 Louisiana 50.9% +0.02 55 31
166 Northern Arizona 50.9% +0.02 54 33
167 Bradley 50.8% +0.01 54 34
168 Delaware State 50.8% +0.01 54 28
169 Wagner 50.8% +0.01 54 26
170 South Florida 50.8% +0.01 53 32
171 Colorado 50.8% +0.00 53 35
172 Jackson State 50.7% -0.00 53 33
173 South Dakota 50.7% -0.01 52 29
174 Florida Gulf Coast 50.7% -0.01 52 31
175 Gonzaga 50.6% -0.04 52 36
176 Wake Forest 50.6% -0.04 52 33
177 Miami 50.6% -0.04 51 37
178 Austin Peay 50.5% -0.05 51 28
179 Boston College 50.4% -0.07 51 33
180 Yale 50.4% -0.08 51 28
181 Buffalo 50.4% -0.08 50 30
182 San Diego State 50.3% -0.10 50 38
183 Pepperdine 50.1% -0.13 50 29
184 West Virginia 50.1% -0.13 49 34
185 New Hampshire 50.1% -0.14 49 28
186 SE Louisiana 50.1% -0.14 49 29
187 Campbell 50.0% -0.15 49 32
188 North Texas 50.0% -0.15 48 36
189 Portland State 50.0% -0.15 48 29
190 Quinnipiac 50.0% -0.15 48 31
191 UNC Asheville 50.0% -0.15 48 33
192 Youngstown State 50.0% -0.15 47 32
193 Grambling 49.9% -0.18 47 31
194 Montana 49.9% -0.18 47 30
195 Rhode Island 49.9% -0.18 46 31
196 Montana State 49.8% -0.19 46 33
197 St. Thomas-Minnesota 49.8% -0.19 46 31
198 Alabama A&M 49.8% -0.20 46 30
199 William & Mary 49.7% -0.21 45 31
200 Texas Tech 49.7% -0.21 45 32
201 Purdue Fort Wayne 49.7% -0.22 45 30
202 Elon 49.6% -0.23 44 30
203 Drake 49.6% -0.23 44 34
204 Ball State 49.6% -0.23 44 30
205 Washington State 49.6% -0.24 44 34
206 UC Riverside 49.5% -0.25 43 33
207 Jacksonville State 49.5% -0.26 43 28
208 Bowling Green 49.4% -0.27 43 29
209 St. Bonaventure 49.4% -0.27 43 32
210 UNLV 49.4% -0.27 42 31
211 Dartmouth 49.4% -0.28 42 26
212 Hofstra 49.4% -0.28 42 34
213 Santa Clara 49.3% -0.30 41 32
214 Tennessee State 49.3% -0.30 41 28
215 Western Michigan 49.2% -0.31 41 28
216 Georgia 49.2% -0.32 41 32
217 Charleston 49.1% -0.33 40 34
218 Idaho State 49.1% -0.33 40 30
219 Sam Houston 49.1% -0.33 40 30
220 App State 49.1% -0.34 40 29
221 UAB 49.0% -0.35 39 38
222 Saint Mary's 49.0% -0.35 39 34
223 Stetson 49.0% -0.36 39 29
224 UAlbany 49.0% -0.36 38 29
225 Western Carolina 48.9% -0.36 38 31
226 Florida 48.9% -0.37 38 33
227 San Francisco 48.9% -0.38 38 33
228 Princeton 48.9% -0.38 37 30
229 San José State 48.9% -0.38 37 34
230 Wisconsin 48.9% -0.38 37 35
231 Western Kentucky 48.8% -0.39 36 31
232 Toledo 48.8% -0.39 36 34
233 Incarnate Word 48.8% -0.39 36 28
234 Lipscomb 48.8% -0.39 36 30
235 Saint Joseph's 48.8% -0.40 35 33
236 Milwaukee 48.7% -0.40 35 31
237 Tulsa 48.7% -0.42 35 30
238 Missouri State 48.6% -0.42 35 31
239 Tarleton State 48.6% -0.43 34 30
240 Drexel 48.4% -0.46 34 31
241 Longwood 48.3% -0.50 34 30
242 Lehigh 48.2% -0.51 33 28
243 Army 48.2% -0.51 33 31
244 Murray State 48.1% -0.53 33 31
245 Wright State 48.1% -0.53 33 31
246 Oral Roberts 48.1% -0.54 32 31
247 Arkansas 48.1% -0.54 32 36
248 Seattle U 48.1% -0.54 32 30
249 Delaware 48.0% -0.55 31 32
250 Holy Cross 48.0% -0.56 31 30
251 SIU Edwardsville 48.0% -0.56 31 30
252 Marist 47.9% -0.57 31 33
253 Nicholls 47.9% -0.58 30 27
254 Northern Illinois 47.9% -0.58 30 30
255 UC Davis 47.8% -0.58 30 30
256 Eastern Kentucky 47.8% -0.59 30 34
257 Central Michigan 47.7% -0.60 29 29
258 South Carolina 47.7% -0.61 29 32
259 Cleveland State 47.7% -0.62 29 33
260 High Point 47.6% -0.63 28 29
261 Prairie View A&M 47.4% -0.67 28 30
262 Omaha 47.4% -0.67 28 31
263 UC San Diego 47.4% -0.68 28 28
264 Florida A&M 47.4% -0.68 27 27
265 La Salle 47.3% -0.70 27 34
266 UTEP 47.3% -0.70 27 30
267 Gardner-Webb 47.2% -0.71 27 29
268 North Florida 47.2% -0.72 26 29
269 Pacific 47.1% -0.72 26 31
270 Cal State Bakersfield 47.1% -0.73 26 31
271 Cal Poly 47.1% -0.74 25 31
272 Grand Canyon 47.1% -0.74 25 33
273 East Tennessee State 47.0% -0.75 25 30
274 Mississippi Valley State 47.0% -0.75 25 32
275 Mercer 47.0% -0.75 24 31
276 Hawai'i 46.9% -0.77 24 32
277 New Mexico 46.9% -0.78 24 33
278 Washington 46.8% -0.79 23 32
279 Detroit Mercy 46.8% -0.79 23 32
280 Illinois State 46.8% -0.79 23 32
281 Illinois 46.8% -0.79 23 33
282 Notre Dame 46.8% -0.79 22 32
283 Oregon State 46.7% -0.81 22 31
284 The Citadel 46.7% -0.81 22 31
285 Columbia 46.7% -0.81 22 27
286 Central Arkansas 46.7% -0.81 21 30
287 Villanova 46.7% -0.81 21 34
288 Chicago State 46.7% -0.81 21 27
289 Winthrop 46.7% -0.82 20 30
290 Presbyterian 46.7% -0.82 20 30
291 Saint Peter's 46.6% -0.83 20 31
292 Norfolk State 46.5% -0.84 20 29
293 California 46.5% -0.85 19 32
294 George Washington 46.5% -0.85 19 31
295 Georgetown 46.5% -0.86 19 32
296 Bryant 46.4% -0.86 19 28
297 Oakland 46.3% -0.89 18 31
298 Louisiana Tech 46.2% -0.91 18 30
299 James Madison 46.2% -0.91 18 30
300 Coppin State 46.2% -0.91 17 32
301 Maryland 46.2% -0.92 17 35
302 Southern Indiana 46.1% -0.92 17 30
303 Vanderbilt 46.1% -0.93 17 37
304 Northern Iowa 46.1% -0.93 16 31
305 Michigan 46.1% -0.93 16 34
306 Wyoming 46.1% -0.93 16 30
307 Bethune-Cookman 46.1% -0.94 15 30
308 Northwestern State 46.0% -0.95 15 32
309 Radford 45.9% -0.98 15 34
310 North Carolina 45.8% -0.98 15 33
311 Lindenwood 45.7% -1.01 14 29
312 Hampton 45.5% -1.05 14 31
313 South Carolina Upstate 45.4% -1.08 14 30
314 San Diego 45.3% -1.09 14 29
315 Wofford 45.2% -1.10 13 30
316 Kent State 45.2% -1.11 13 33
317 Coastal Carolina 45.2% -1.11 13 28
318 North Carolina A&T 45.1% -1.12 12 29
319 Binghamton 45.1% -1.13 12 29
320 Niagara 45.1% -1.13 12 30
321 NJIT 45.1% -1.14 12 29
322 Samford 45.1% -1.14 11 28
323 Evansville 45.0% -1.15 11 32
324 Alabama State 45.0% -1.16 11 30
325 Georgia State 44.9% -1.17 10 28
326 Florida International 44.8% -1.18 10 30
327 Texas Southern 44.8% -1.19 10 33
328 Weber State 44.8% -1.19 10 31
329 UT Martin 44.7% -1.20 9 29
330 IU Indianapolis 44.7% -1.21 9 30
331 Charleston Southern 44.7% -1.21 9 29
332 North Dakota 44.7% -1.21 9 31
333 New Mexico State 44.7% -1.21 8 21
334 Idaho 44.5% -1.26 8 30
335 UTSA 44.4% -1.26 8 30
336 McNeese 44.4% -1.27 7 33
337 Old Dominion 44.3% -1.29 7 30
338 NC State 44.2% -1.31 7 34
339 Northern Colorado 44.1% -1.33 7 31
340 UNC Wilmington 43.9% -1.37 6 32
341 VMI 43.9% -1.37 6 29
342 Denver 43.6% -1.43 6 30
343 Southern Utah 43.5% -1.44 6 33
344 Boise State 43.5% -1.45 5 33
345 Rider 43.3% -1.48 5 29
346 Cal State Northridge 43.3% -1.49 5 30
347 Ohio State 43.2% -1.50 4 35
348 North Dakota State 43.2% -1.50 4 31
349 Ohio 42.9% -1.57 4 32
350 Boston University 42.8% -1.58 4 30
351 Cal State Fullerton 42.8% -1.60 3 31
352 Loyola Marymount 42.6% -1.64 3 30
353 Fairfield 41.9% -1.76 3 30
354 South Dakota State 41.8% -1.79 2 31
355 Louisville 41.8% -1.80 2 32
356 South Alabama 41.7% -1.80 2 33
357 Middle Tennessee 41.5% -1.84 2 31
358 Alcorn State 41.4% -1.87 1 32
359 North Alabama 40.8% -1.99 1 30
360 Kansas City 40.2% -2.10 1 30
361 Texas State 40.2% -2.11 1 32
362 Georgia Southern 40.1% -2.13 0 30
363 Eastern Michigan 37.0% -2.75 0 30