Everybody's in despair, every girl and boy. "Quinn the Eskimo" - Bob Dylan

Does it predict winners?

Predicts home win: AUC 0.70 (team entering with the better value wins 66% of games)

See the game-by-game scatter on the Predictor page →

Team Distribution

Season-to-date value for every team, with a density curve.

min 0.0% max 96.9% mean 48.3% std 19.0% (n=349)

Team Rankings

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# Team Win Percentage (WP) z Pctl GP
1 Gonzaga 96.9% +2.56 100 32
2 Baylor 93.3% +2.37 100 30
3 Winthrop 92.0% +2.30 99 25
4 Colgate 87.5% +2.07 99 16
5 Houston 87.1% +2.05 99 31
6 Belmont 86.7% +2.02 99 30
7 Navy 83.3% +1.85 98 18
8 Drake 82.8% +1.82 98 29
9 Loyola Chicago 82.8% +1.82 98 29
10 Michigan 82.1% +1.78 97 28
11 San Diego State 81.5% +1.75 97 27
12 Abilene Christian 80.0% +1.67 97 25
13 UC Santa Barbara 80.0% +1.67 97 25
14 Southern Utah 78.9% +1.62 96 19
15 Alabama 78.8% +1.61 96 33
16 Arkansas 78.1% +1.57 96 32
17 Illinois 77.4% +1.54 95 31
18 Prairie View A&M 76.2% +1.47 95 21
19 St. Bonaventure 76.2% +1.47 95 21
20 Liberty 76.0% +1.46 95 25
21 Oregon 75.9% +1.45 94 29
22 USC 75.8% +1.45 94 33
23 Wright State 75.0% +1.41 94 24
24 Louisiana Tech 74.2% +1.37 93 31
25 Eastern Kentucky 74.1% +1.36 93 27
26 UAB 74.1% +1.36 93 27
27 Texas State 73.9% +1.35 93 23
28 BYU 73.1% +1.31 92 26
29 Florida State 73.1% +1.31 92 26
30 Morehead State 72.4% +1.27 92 29
31 Western Kentucky 72.4% +1.27 91 29
32 Stephen F. Austin 72.2% +1.26 91 18
33 Villanova 72.0% +1.25 91 25
34 Colorado 71.9% +1.24 91 32
35 Memphis 71.4% +1.22 90 28
36 Texas 71.4% +1.22 90 28
37 Creighton 71.0% +1.20 90 31
38 Iowa 71.0% +1.20 89 31
39 Nicholls 70.8% +1.19 89 24
40 Siena 70.6% +1.18 89 17
41 Cleveland State 70.4% +1.16 89 27
42 Colorado State 70.4% +1.16 88 27
43 VCU 70.4% +1.16 88 27
44 Georgia State 70.0% +1.14 88 20
45 Oklahoma State 70.0% +1.14 87 30
46 Toledo 70.0% +1.14 87 30
47 UMBC 70.0% +1.14 87 20
48 UNC Greensboro 70.0% +1.14 86 30
49 Weber State 70.0% +1.14 86 20
50 Wichita State 70.0% +1.14 86 20
51 Virginia 69.2% +1.10 86 26
52 UCLA 68.8% +1.08 85 32
53 Marshall 68.2% +1.05 85 22
54 Missouri State 68.2% +1.05 85 22
55 South Dakota State 68.2% +1.05 84 22
56 Virginia Tech 68.2% +1.05 84 22
57 Utah State 67.9% +1.03 84 28
58 Ohio State 67.7% +1.03 84 31
59 Boise State 66.7% +0.97 83 27
60 Bryant 66.7% +0.97 83 21
61 Chattanooga 66.7% +0.97 83 24
62 Clemson 66.7% +0.97 82 24
63 Georgia Tech 66.7% +0.97 82 27
64 Grand Canyon 66.7% +0.97 82 21
65 Iona 66.7% +0.97 82 18
66 Jackson State 66.7% +0.97 81 18
67 Kansas 66.7% +0.97 81 30
68 Norfolk State 66.7% +0.97 81 24
69 Ohio 66.7% +0.97 80 24
70 Saint Louis 66.7% +0.97 80 21
71 Tennessee 66.7% +0.97 80 27
72 Vermont 66.7% +0.97 80 15
73 LSU 65.5% +0.91 79 29
74 West Virginia 65.5% +0.91 79 29
75 Arizona 65.4% +0.90 79 26
76 Eastern Washington 65.2% +0.89 78 23
77 UConn 65.2% +0.89 78 23
78 Louisville 65.0% +0.88 78 20
79 Wagner 65.0% +0.88 78 20
80 SMU 64.7% +0.87 77 17
81 Purdue 64.3% +0.84 77 28
82 Syracuse 64.3% +0.84 77 28
83 Buffalo 64.0% +0.83 76 25
84 Jacksonville State 64.0% +0.83 76 25
85 Texas Southern 64.0% +0.83 76 25
86 UC Irvine 64.0% +0.83 76 25
87 Coastal Carolina 63.6% +0.81 75 22
88 Kent State 63.6% +0.81 75 22
89 Old Dominion 63.6% +0.81 75 22
90 UC Riverside 63.6% +0.81 74 22
91 Morgan State 63.2% +0.78 74 19
92 North Texas 63.0% +0.77 74 27
93 Louisiana 62.5% +0.75 74 24
94 Sam Houston 62.5% +0.75 73 24
95 Hartford 62.5% +0.75 73 24
96 North Carolina 62.1% +0.73 73 29
97 Texas Tech 62.1% +0.73 72 29
98 Akron 61.9% +0.72 72 21
99 Xavier 61.9% +0.72 72 21
100 Missouri 61.5% +0.70 72 26
101 Bellarmine 60.0% +0.62 71 20
102 Campbell 60.0% +0.62 71 25
103 Drexel 60.0% +0.62 71 20
104 Florida 60.0% +0.62 70 25
105 Lafayette 60.0% +0.62 70 15
106 Monmouth 60.0% +0.62 70 20
107 Nevada 60.0% +0.62 70 25
108 Oregon State 59.4% +0.58 69 32
109 Oklahoma 59.3% +0.58 69 27
110 St. John's 59.3% +0.58 69 27
111 Furman 59.1% +0.57 68 22
112 George Mason 59.1% +0.57 68 22
113 Loyola Marymount 59.1% +0.57 68 22
114 Richmond 59.1% +0.57 68 22
115 Wofford 59.1% +0.57 67 22
116 James Madison 58.8% +0.56 67 17
117 Dayton 58.3% +0.53 67 24
118 Indiana State 58.3% +0.53 66 24
119 Saint Mary's 58.3% +0.53 66 24
120 Wisconsin 58.1% +0.52 66 31
121 Santa Clara 57.9% +0.51 66 19
122 Mercer 57.7% +0.50 65 26
123 Oral Roberts 57.7% +0.50 65 26
124 Davidson 57.1% +0.47 65 21
125 Marist 57.1% +0.47 64 21
126 Ole Miss 57.1% +0.47 64 28
127 Rutgers 57.1% +0.47 64 28
128 Hofstra 56.5% +0.43 64 23
129 NC State 56.0% +0.41 63 25
130 Northern Kentucky 56.0% +0.41 63 25
131 Saint Peter's 56.0% +0.41 63 25
132 Wyoming 56.0% +0.41 62 25
133 North Dakota State 55.6% +0.38 62 27
134 Detroit Mercy 54.5% +0.33 62 22
135 Mississippi State 54.5% +0.33 61 33
136 Cal State Bakersfield 54.2% +0.31 61 24
137 South Alabama 54.2% +0.31 61 24
138 South Dakota 54.2% +0.31 61 24
139 Canisius 53.8% +0.29 60 13
140 Michigan State 53.6% +0.28 60 28
141 Maryland 53.3% +0.27 60 30
142 Massachusetts 53.3% +0.27 59 15
143 New Mexico State 52.9% +0.25 59 17
144 UC Davis 52.9% +0.25 59 17
145 Northeastern 52.6% +0.23 59 19
146 Army 52.4% +0.22 58 21
147 Montana State 52.4% +0.22 58 21
148 Cincinnati 52.2% +0.21 58 23
149 Mount St. Mary's 52.2% +0.21 57 23
150 App State 52.0% +0.20 57 25
151 Bowling Green 52.0% +0.20 57 25
152 Duke 52.0% +0.20 57 25
153 Georgia 52.0% +0.20 56 25
154 Pepperdine 52.0% +0.20 56 25
155 Radford 52.0% +0.20 56 25
156 Seton Hall 51.9% +0.19 55 27
157 Stanford 51.9% +0.19 55 27
158 Washington State 51.9% +0.19 55 27
159 Duquesne 50.0% +0.09 55 18
160 Elon 50.0% +0.09 54 18
161 Florida Gulf Coast 50.0% +0.09 54 16
162 Georgetown 50.0% +0.09 54 26
163 Long Island University 50.0% +0.09 53 18
164 Merrimack 50.0% +0.09 53 18
165 Miami (OH) 50.0% +0.09 53 22
166 New Hampshire 50.0% +0.09 53 18
167 Providence 50.0% +0.09 52 26
168 Sacred Heart 50.0% +0.09 52 18
169 UNC Asheville 50.0% +0.09 52 20
170 UTSA 50.0% +0.09 51 22
171 Minnesota 48.3% +0.00 51 29
172 Auburn 48.1% -0.01 51 27
173 Marquette 48.1% -0.01 51 27
174 Austin Peay 48.0% -0.01 50 25
175 Rice 48.0% -0.01 50 25
176 Utah 48.0% -0.01 50 25
177 East Tennessee State 47.8% -0.02 49 23
178 Grambling 47.8% -0.02 49 23
179 Lipscomb 47.8% -0.02 49 23
180 UCF 47.8% -0.02 49 23
181 UMass Lowell 47.8% -0.02 48 23
182 Youngstown State 47.8% -0.02 48 23
183 California Baptist 47.4% -0.05 48 19
184 Florida Atlantic 47.4% -0.05 47 19
185 Hawai'i 47.4% -0.05 47 19
186 St. Francis Brooklyn 47.4% -0.05 47 19
187 Pacific 47.1% -0.06 47 17
188 TCU 46.2% -0.11 46 26
189 Murray State 45.8% -0.13 46 24
190 Fresno State 45.5% -0.15 46 22
191 Milwaukee 45.5% -0.15 45 22
192 Pittsburgh 45.5% -0.15 45 22
193 VMI 45.5% -0.15 45 22
194 Niagara 45.0% -0.17 45 20
195 North Alabama 45.0% -0.17 44 20
196 North Carolina A&T 45.0% -0.17 44 20
197 Utah Valley 45.0% -0.17 44 20
198 IU Indianapolis 44.4% -0.20 43 18
199 Indiana 44.4% -0.20 43 27
200 Texas A&M 44.4% -0.20 43 18
201 Arizona State 44.0% -0.23 43 25
202 Hampton 44.0% -0.23 42 25
203 Penn State 44.0% -0.23 42 25
204 San Francisco 44.0% -0.23 42 25
205 Southern Illinois 44.0% -0.23 41 25
206 UAlbany 43.8% -0.24 41 16
207 Ball State 43.5% -0.25 41 23
208 Montana 43.5% -0.25 41 23
209 Tulane 43.5% -0.25 40 23
210 UT Arlington 43.5% -0.25 40 23
211 Delaware 42.9% -0.29 40 14
212 Longwood 42.9% -0.29 39 28
213 The Citadel 42.9% -0.29 39 21
214 Tulsa 42.9% -0.29 39 21
215 UTEP 42.9% -0.29 39 21
216 Gardner-Webb 42.3% -0.31 38 26
217 Notre Dame 42.3% -0.31 38 26
218 Idaho State 42.1% -0.33 38 19
219 Northern Colorado 42.1% -0.33 37 19
220 Seattle U 42.1% -0.33 37 19
221 Southern 42.1% -0.33 37 19
222 Bucknell 41.7% -0.35 36 12
223 Stetson 41.7% -0.35 36 24
224 Charleston 41.2% -0.37 36 17
225 William & Mary 41.2% -0.37 36 17
226 Coppin State 40.9% -0.39 35 22
227 Georgia Southern 40.9% -0.39 35 22
228 Jacksonville 40.9% -0.39 35 22
229 Quinnipiac 40.9% -0.39 34 22
230 UIC 40.9% -0.39 34 22
231 Southeast Missouri State 40.7% -0.40 34 27
232 Alabama A&M 40.0% -0.44 34 15
233 American University 40.0% -0.44 33 10
234 Butler 40.0% -0.44 33 25
235 Florida A&M 40.0% -0.44 33 20
236 Little Rock 40.0% -0.44 32 25
237 Oakland 40.0% -0.44 32 30
238 Rhode Island 40.0% -0.44 32 25
239 UNLV 40.0% -0.44 32 25
240 Boston University 38.9% -0.49 31 18
241 East Carolina 38.9% -0.49 31 18
242 Bradley 38.5% -0.52 31 26
243 Arkansas State 38.1% -0.54 30 21
244 Cal State Northridge 38.1% -0.54 30 21
245 South Florida 38.1% -0.54 30 21
246 Charlotte 37.5% -0.57 30 24
247 Fairleigh Dickinson 37.5% -0.57 29 24
248 High Point 37.5% -0.57 29 24
249 New Orleans 37.5% -0.57 29 24
250 UNC Wilmington 37.5% -0.57 28 16
251 Fairfield 37.0% -0.59 28 27
252 Miami 37.0% -0.59 28 27
253 NJIT 36.8% -0.60 28 19
254 Stony Brook 36.4% -0.63 27 22
255 Evansville 36.0% -0.65 27 25
256 Kentucky 36.0% -0.65 27 25
257 Vanderbilt 36.0% -0.65 26 25
258 Western Carolina 36.0% -0.65 26 25
259 Lamar 35.7% -0.66 26 28
260 Northwestern State 35.7% -0.66 26 28
261 Loyola Maryland 35.3% -0.68 25 17
262 Kansas City 35.0% -0.70 25 20
263 Manhattan 35.0% -0.70 25 20
264 Northern Iowa 34.8% -0.71 24 23
265 Northwestern 34.8% -0.71 24 23
266 Purdue Fort Wayne 34.8% -0.71 24 23
267 North Dakota 34.6% -0.72 24 26
268 Cal State Fullerton 33.3% -0.79 23 15
269 Eastern Illinois 33.3% -0.79 23 27
270 La Salle 33.3% -0.79 23 24
271 Long Beach State 33.3% -0.79 22 18
272 North Florida 33.3% -0.79 22 21
273 Portland State 33.3% -0.79 22 18
274 Sacramento State 33.3% -0.79 22 18
275 Tarleton State 33.3% -0.79 21 15
276 UT Rio Grande Valley 33.3% -0.79 21 15
277 Queens University 33.3% -0.79 21 3
278 Kansas State 32.1% -0.85 20 28
279 Green Bay 32.0% -0.86 20 25
280 SIU Edwardsville 32.0% -0.86 20 25
281 Troy 32.0% -0.86 20 25
282 Alcorn State 31.6% -0.88 19 19
283 Utah Tech 31.6% -0.88 19 19
284 Holy Cross 31.3% -0.90 19 16
285 Temple 31.3% -0.90 18 16
286 North Carolina Central 30.8% -0.92 18 13
287 SE Louisiana 30.8% -0.92 18 26
288 Valparaiso 30.8% -0.92 18 26
289 UT Martin 30.4% -0.94 17 23
290 George Washington 29.4% -0.99 17 17
291 California 28.6% -1.04 17 28
292 Presbyterian 28.6% -1.04 16 21
293 South Carolina 28.6% -1.04 16 21
294 UC San Diego 28.6% -1.04 16 14
295 Western Illinois 28.6% -1.04 16 21
296 Northern Arizona 27.3% -1.11 15 22
297 Saint Francis 27.3% -1.11 15 22
298 UL Monroe 26.9% -1.13 15 26
299 Lehigh 26.7% -1.14 14 15
300 DePaul 26.3% -1.16 14 19
301 Incarnate Word 26.3% -1.16 14 19
302 Rider 26.1% -1.17 14 23
303 Southern Miss 26.1% -1.17 13 23
304 Central Michigan 25.0% -1.23 13 20
305 Illinois State 25.0% -1.23 13 24
306 Saint Joseph's 25.0% -1.23 12 20
307 Central Connecticut 23.8% -1.29 12 21
308 Wake Forest 23.8% -1.29 12 21
309 Samford 23.5% -1.30 11 17
310 Nebraska 23.1% -1.33 11 26
311 Florida International 22.7% -1.35 11 22
312 South Carolina Upstate 22.7% -1.35 11 22
313 Alabama State 22.2% -1.37 10 18
314 Binghamton 22.2% -1.37 10 18
315 Maine 22.2% -1.37 10 9
316 McNeese 22.2% -1.37 9 18
317 Towson 22.2% -1.37 9 18
318 San Diego 21.4% -1.41 9 14
319 Houston Christian 20.8% -1.45 9 24
320 Air Force 20.0% -1.49 8 25
321 Boston College 20.0% -1.49 8 20
322 Eastern Michigan 20.0% -1.49 8 15
323 Howard 20.0% -1.49 7 5
324 New Mexico 20.0% -1.49 7 20
325 Omaha 20.0% -1.49 7 25
326 Western Michigan 20.0% -1.49 7 20
327 Washington 19.2% -1.53 6 26
328 Tennessee Tech 18.5% -1.57 6 27
329 Middle Tennessee 18.2% -1.59 6 22
330 Central Arkansas 17.4% -1.63 5 23
331 Portland 16.7% -1.67 5 18
332 Robert Morris 16.7% -1.67 5 18
333 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 16.0% -1.70 5 25
334 Northern Illinois 15.8% -1.71 4 19
335 San José State 15.8% -1.71 4 19
336 Fordham 14.3% -1.79 4 14
337 Tennessee State 13.6% -1.83 3 22
338 Cal Poly 13.0% -1.86 3 23
339 Charleston Southern 10.0% -2.02 3 20
340 Kennesaw State 9.5% -2.04 3 21
341 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 9.5% -2.04 2 21
342 Iowa State 8.3% -2.10 2 24
343 Mississippi Valley State 8.3% -2.10 2 24
344 Delaware State 5.9% -2.23 1 17
345 South Carolina State 5.6% -2.25 1 18
346 Denver 5.0% -2.28 1 20
347 Idaho 4.5% -2.30 1 22
348 Chicago State 0.0% -2.54 0 9
349 Mercyhurst 0.0% -2.54 0 1