Well New York City really has it all. "Sheena Is a Punk Rocker" - The Ramones

Does it predict winners?

Predicts home win: AUC 0.64 (team entering with the better value wins 61% of games)

See the game-by-game scatter on the Predictor page →

Team Distribution

Season-to-date value for every team, with a density curve.

min 44.8% max 63.3% mean 53.1% std 2.9% (n=349)

Team Rankings

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# Team True Shooting Percentage z Pctl GP
1 Gonzaga 63.3% +3.54 100 32
2 Weber State 60.2% +2.46 100 20
3 Purdue Fort Wayne 60.0% +2.40 99 23
4 Liberty 59.6% +2.24 99 25
5 South Dakota State 59.4% +2.19 99 22
6 Colgate 59.1% +2.08 99 16
7 Belmont 58.8% +1.98 98 30
8 Furman 58.8% +1.97 98 22
9 Baylor 58.6% +1.89 98 30
10 Loyola Chicago 58.4% +1.83 97 29
11 Virginia 58.3% +1.79 97 25
12 Bellarmine 58.2% +1.78 97 20
13 Detroit Mercy 58.2% +1.78 97 22
14 Dayton 58.2% +1.76 96 24
15 Illinois 58.2% +1.75 96 31
16 Eastern Washington 58.1% +1.72 96 23
17 Michigan 58.1% +1.72 95 28
18 Colorado State 58.0% +1.71 95 27
19 Stephen F. Austin 57.9% +1.64 95 18
20 Campbell 57.8% +1.64 95 25
21 BYU 57.5% +1.51 94 26
22 Iowa 57.4% +1.50 94 31
23 Wright State 57.4% +1.50 94 24
24 Toledo 57.3% +1.47 93 30
25 California Baptist 57.3% +1.46 93 19
26 Missouri State 57.3% +1.45 93 22
27 Florida State 57.2% +1.42 93 25
28 South Dakota 57.2% +1.42 92 24
29 Vermont 57.2% +1.41 92 15
30 Davidson 57.1% +1.40 92 21
31 Ohio 57.1% +1.39 91 24
32 Marshall 57.1% +1.37 91 22
33 VMI 57.0% +1.36 91 22
34 Wofford 57.0% +1.35 91 22
35 Bryant 57.0% +1.35 90 21
36 Oral Roberts 56.9% +1.33 90 26
37 Ohio State 56.9% +1.32 90 31
38 Notre Dame 56.9% +1.31 89 26
39 Wyoming 56.9% +1.30 89 25
40 Southern Utah 56.8% +1.28 89 19
41 Florida 56.7% +1.26 89 25
42 Utah 56.7% +1.25 88 25
43 Georgia Tech 56.7% +1.25 88 26
44 North Texas 56.6% +1.22 88 27
45 Villanova 56.6% +1.22 87 25
46 Drexel 56.6% +1.22 87 20
47 Mercer 56.6% +1.21 87 26
48 UC Santa Barbara 56.6% +1.20 86 25
49 Colorado 56.5% +1.18 86 32
50 Oregon 56.5% +1.17 86 28
51 Murray State 56.5% +1.17 86 24
52 Creighton 56.4% +1.13 85 31
53 Richmond 56.2% +1.07 85 22
54 Bucknell 56.1% +1.05 85 12
55 LSU 56.0% +1.00 84 29
56 Texas 55.9% +0.97 84 27
57 McNeese 55.9% +0.96 84 18
58 Boise State 55.9% +0.96 84 27
59 UC San Diego 55.8% +0.95 83 14
60 Maryland 55.8% +0.94 83 30
61 Nevada 55.8% +0.93 83 25
62 New Orleans 55.7% +0.91 82 24
63 UNC Asheville 55.7% +0.90 82 20
64 Loyola Marymount 55.7% +0.90 82 22
65 Drake 55.7% +0.89 82 29
66 NC State 55.6% +0.88 81 25
67 Evansville 55.6% +0.87 81 25
68 Duke 55.5% +0.83 81 24
69 San Diego State 55.5% +0.82 80 27
70 Winthrop 55.5% +0.81 80 25
71 Rice 55.3% +0.77 80 25
72 SMU 55.3% +0.76 80 17
73 Pepperdine 55.3% +0.76 79 25
74 Grand Canyon 55.3% +0.75 79 21
75 Western Kentucky 55.2% +0.72 79 29
76 North Florida 55.2% +0.72 78 21
77 Virginia Tech 55.2% +0.71 78 22
78 Western Carolina 55.1% +0.68 78 25
79 Morehead State 55.1% +0.68 78 29
80 UCLA 55.1% +0.67 77 32
81 Cal State Fullerton 55.0% +0.67 77 15
82 Akron 55.0% +0.67 77 21
83 American University 55.0% +0.67 76 10
84 USC 55.0% +0.66 76 33
85 Jacksonville State 55.0% +0.66 76 25
86 VCU 55.0% +0.64 76 26
87 Stanford 54.9% +0.63 75 27
88 The Citadel 54.9% +0.63 75 21
89 Syracuse 54.9% +0.62 75 28
90 Gardner-Webb 54.9% +0.61 74 26
91 Lafayette 54.9% +0.61 74 15
92 Arizona 54.8% +0.60 74 26
93 Fairleigh Dickinson 54.8% +0.58 74 24
94 Vanderbilt 54.8% +0.58 73 25
95 Oklahoma State 54.7% +0.57 73 30
96 Air Force 54.7% +0.56 73 25
97 Ball State 54.7% +0.54 72 23
98 Auburn 54.6% +0.52 72 27
99 Siena 54.6% +0.52 72 17
100 UC Riverside 54.6% +0.52 72 22
101 Iona 54.6% +0.51 71 18
102 Kent State 54.6% +0.51 71 22
103 North Dakota State 54.5% +0.47 71 27
104 Northeastern 54.4% +0.46 70 19
105 Texas State 54.4% +0.46 70 23
106 Xavier 54.4% +0.46 70 21
107 Arkansas 54.4% +0.45 70 32
108 Alabama 54.4% +0.45 69 33
109 Southern Illinois 54.4% +0.45 69 25
110 Marquette 54.4% +0.44 69 27
111 Saint Louis 54.4% +0.43 68 21
112 Lipscomb 54.3% +0.42 68 23
113 Montana State 54.3% +0.41 68 21
114 Chattanooga 54.3% +0.41 68 24
115 Missouri 54.2% +0.38 67 26
116 Hofstra 54.2% +0.38 67 23
117 Oklahoma 54.2% +0.37 67 27
118 Abilene Christian 54.2% +0.37 66 25
119 Purdue 54.2% +0.36 66 28
120 Charleston 54.1% +0.36 66 17
121 Howard 54.1% +0.36 66 5
122 Georgia State 54.1% +0.35 65 20
123 Little Rock 54.1% +0.34 65 25
124 UAlbany 54.1% +0.34 65 16
125 South Alabama 54.1% +0.33 64 24
126 Radford 54.0% +0.32 64 25
127 Northern Colorado 54.0% +0.30 64 19
128 UMass Lowell 54.0% +0.30 64 23
129 Austin Peay 54.0% +0.30 63 25
130 Seton Hall 53.9% +0.29 63 27
131 Utah Valley 53.9% +0.29 63 20
132 UMBC 53.9% +0.28 62 20
133 Miami (OH) 53.9% +0.27 62 22
134 Montana 53.8% +0.25 62 23
135 Houston 53.8% +0.25 61 31
136 St. John's 53.8% +0.24 61 27
137 Hawai'i 53.8% +0.24 61 19
138 Massachusetts 53.8% +0.24 61 15
139 Long Beach State 53.8% +0.23 60 18
140 James Madison 53.8% +0.23 60 17
141 Merrimack 53.8% +0.23 60 18
142 Georgia 53.7% +0.22 59 25
143 Eastern Kentucky 53.7% +0.21 59 27
144 Buffalo 53.7% +0.21 59 25
145 Florida Atlantic 53.7% +0.20 59 19
146 Kansas City 53.6% +0.19 58 20
147 Tennessee 53.6% +0.18 58 27
148 Louisiana Tech 53.6% +0.18 58 31
149 San Francisco 53.6% +0.15 57 25
150 Coastal Carolina 53.5% +0.15 57 22
151 UNC Wilmington 53.5% +0.14 57 16
152 Army 53.5% +0.14 57 21
153 Incarnate Word 53.5% +0.14 56 19
154 Delaware 53.5% +0.14 56 14
155 Charlotte 53.5% +0.12 56 24
156 UCF 53.5% +0.12 55 23
157 Denver 53.5% +0.12 55 20
158 Oregon State 53.4% +0.10 55 32
159 Sam Houston 53.4% +0.10 55 24
160 Navy 53.4% +0.09 54 18
161 Northern Kentucky 53.4% +0.08 54 25
162 Wisconsin 53.3% +0.08 54 31
163 Nicholls 53.3% +0.07 53 24
164 Texas Tech 53.3% +0.06 53 29
165 Sacramento State 53.3% +0.06 53 18
166 George Washington 53.3% +0.05 53 17
167 Milwaukee 53.3% +0.05 52 22
168 Georgetown 53.2% +0.05 52 26
169 Southeast Missouri State 53.2% +0.04 52 27
170 Stetson 53.2% +0.04 51 24
171 East Tennessee State 53.2% +0.03 51 23
172 Morgan State 53.2% +0.03 51 19
173 Cleveland State 53.2% +0.03 51 27
174 Louisiana 53.2% +0.02 50 24
175 Tarleton State 53.1% +0.01 50 15
176 Boston University 53.1% +0.00 50 18
177 UC Davis 53.1% -0.00 49 17
178 Indiana State 53.1% -0.01 49 24
179 Northwestern 53.1% -0.02 49 23
180 Clemson 53.0% -0.03 49 24
181 St. Bonaventure 53.0% -0.03 48 21
182 St. Francis Brooklyn 53.0% -0.04 48 19
183 West Virginia 53.0% -0.04 48 29
184 Hartford 53.0% -0.05 47 24
185 Arizona State 53.0% -0.06 47 25
186 Loyola Maryland 52.9% -0.07 47 17
187 Longwood 52.9% -0.08 47 28
188 Utah State 52.9% -0.09 46 28
189 California 52.9% -0.09 46 28
190 UNLV 52.8% -0.10 46 25
191 New Mexico State 52.8% -0.10 45 17
192 Mississippi State 52.8% -0.10 45 33
193 Memphis 52.8% -0.10 45 28
194 Holy Cross 52.8% -0.10 45 16
195 North Dakota 52.8% -0.12 44 26
196 TCU 52.7% -0.13 44 26
197 Boston College 52.7% -0.13 44 20
198 Hampton 52.7% -0.14 43 25
199 Central Arkansas 52.7% -0.14 43 23
200 Kansas 52.7% -0.15 43 29
201 Florida International 52.6% -0.18 43 22
202 Green Bay 52.6% -0.19 42 25
203 Bradley 52.5% -0.20 42 26
204 Robert Morris 52.5% -0.20 42 18
205 Norfolk State 52.5% -0.21 41 23
206 Monmouth 52.5% -0.21 41 20
207 Rhode Island 52.5% -0.21 41 25
208 Tennessee Tech 52.5% -0.22 41 27
209 Prairie View A&M 52.4% -0.23 40 21
210 Northern Iowa 52.4% -0.24 40 23
211 UTSA 52.4% -0.24 40 22
212 South Carolina Upstate 52.4% -0.25 39 22
213 IU Indianapolis 52.3% -0.27 39 18
214 Youngstown State 52.3% -0.27 39 23
215 SIU Edwardsville 52.3% -0.28 39 25
216 Illinois State 52.3% -0.28 38 24
217 La Salle 52.3% -0.29 38 24
218 UConn 52.2% -0.30 38 23
219 Ole Miss 52.2% -0.31 37 28
220 Wagner 52.2% -0.32 37 20
221 Tulsa 52.2% -0.32 37 21
222 Wake Forest 52.2% -0.32 36 21
223 Sacred Heart 52.2% -0.33 36 18
224 Oakland 52.2% -0.33 36 30
225 Houston Christian 52.1% -0.36 36 24
226 Indiana 52.1% -0.36 35 27
227 Marist 52.0% -0.37 35 21
228 Cal State Northridge 52.0% -0.38 35 21
229 Arkansas State 52.0% -0.38 34 21
230 Fresno State 52.0% -0.38 34 22
231 Central Michigan 52.0% -0.38 34 20
232 Rutgers 52.0% -0.39 34 28
233 Idaho 52.0% -0.40 33 22
234 Old Dominion 51.9% -0.41 33 22
235 Pittsburgh 51.9% -0.41 33 22
236 North Alabama 51.8% -0.44 32 20
237 Jacksonville 51.8% -0.45 32 22
238 Rider 51.8% -0.46 32 23
239 Texas Southern 51.8% -0.46 32 25
240 Michigan State 51.8% -0.47 31 28
241 UAB 51.7% -0.47 31 27
242 Saint Joseph's 51.7% -0.49 31 20
243 Washington 51.7% -0.49 30 26
244 Washington State 51.7% -0.50 30 27
245 Southern 51.7% -0.50 30 19
246 UIC 51.6% -0.51 30 22
247 Northwestern State 51.6% -0.51 29 28
248 Providence 51.6% -0.51 29 26
249 Saint Francis 51.6% -0.53 29 22
250 Texas A&M 51.6% -0.54 28 18
251 Central Connecticut 51.5% -0.54 28 21
252 Coppin State 51.5% -0.55 28 22
253 UTEP 51.5% -0.56 28 21
254 Grambling 51.5% -0.57 27 23
255 Santa Clara 51.5% -0.57 27 19
256 Eastern Illinois 51.5% -0.58 27 27
257 Louisville 51.4% -0.58 26 20
258 Cal State Bakersfield 51.4% -0.58 26 24
259 Portland 51.4% -0.59 26 18
260 Western Michigan 51.4% -0.60 26 20
261 North Carolina 51.4% -0.60 25 29
262 Penn State 51.3% -0.62 25 25
263 Elon 51.3% -0.62 25 18
264 Mount St. Mary's 51.3% -0.62 24 23
265 UC Irvine 51.3% -0.64 24 25
266 Kentucky 51.3% -0.64 24 25
267 Saint Mary's 51.2% -0.66 24 24
268 Temple 51.2% -0.67 23 16
269 Idaho State 51.2% -0.67 23 19
270 Cincinnati 51.2% -0.68 23 23
271 George Mason 51.1% -0.69 22 22
272 Florida A&M 51.1% -0.70 22 20
273 Bowling Green 51.1% -0.71 22 25
274 Binghamton 51.1% -0.71 22 18
275 Wichita State 51.0% -0.74 21 20
276 UL Monroe 51.0% -0.74 21 26
277 Iowa State 51.0% -0.75 21 24
278 Miami 50.9% -0.76 20 27
279 App State 50.9% -0.78 20 25
280 Northern Arizona 50.7% -0.83 20 22
281 Nebraska 50.7% -0.84 20 26
282 North Carolina Central 50.7% -0.85 19 13
283 Canisius 50.6% -0.86 19 13
284 Samford 50.5% -0.89 19 17
285 Quinnipiac 50.5% -0.90 18 22
286 Niagara 50.5% -0.90 18 20
287 Georgia Southern 50.5% -0.90 18 22
288 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 50.5% -0.90 18 21
289 William & Mary 50.4% -0.94 17 17
290 Duquesne 50.4% -0.95 17 18
291 UNC Greensboro 50.3% -0.96 17 30
292 Valparaiso 50.3% -0.97 16 26
293 Presbyterian 50.3% -0.97 16 21
294 Pacific 50.3% -0.97 16 17
295 Southern Miss 50.3% -0.97 16 23
296 Tennessee State 50.3% -0.97 15 22
297 Eastern Michigan 50.2% -0.99 15 15
298 Lehigh 50.2% -1.00 15 15
299 Long Island University 50.2% -1.00 14 18
300 Western Illinois 50.1% -1.04 14 21
301 Charleston Southern 50.1% -1.05 14 20
302 Seattle U 50.1% -1.06 14 19
303 Utah Tech 50.0% -1.06 13 19
304 Butler 50.0% -1.08 13 25
305 Lamar 50.0% -1.09 13 28
306 Minnesota 49.9% -1.11 12 29
307 High Point 49.9% -1.12 12 24
308 Kansas State 49.8% -1.13 12 28
309 Florida Gulf Coast 49.8% -1.14 11 16
310 Towson 49.7% -1.20 11 18
311 NJIT 49.7% -1.20 11 19
312 Delaware State 49.6% -1.22 11 17
313 SE Louisiana 49.6% -1.22 10 26
314 East Carolina 49.5% -1.25 10 18
315 Stony Brook 49.5% -1.26 10 22
316 Omaha 49.5% -1.26 9 25
317 UT Arlington 49.4% -1.27 9 23
318 Saint Peter's 49.3% -1.31 9 25
319 Tulane 49.3% -1.31 9 23
320 Fairfield 49.3% -1.32 8 27
321 South Carolina 49.3% -1.33 8 21
322 UT Martin 49.1% -1.40 8 23
323 Jackson State 49.0% -1.42 7 18
324 North Carolina A&T 49.0% -1.44 7 19
325 Alcorn State 48.8% -1.48 7 19
326 New Hampshire 48.8% -1.49 7 18
327 San Diego 48.8% -1.50 6 14
328 Kennesaw State 48.8% -1.51 6 21
329 DePaul 48.7% -1.53 6 19
330 Troy 48.5% -1.62 5 25
331 Cal Poly 48.3% -1.66 5 23
332 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 48.3% -1.68 5 25
333 Portland State 48.2% -1.72 5 18
334 South Florida 48.1% -1.74 4 21
335 Middle Tennessee 48.1% -1.74 4 22
336 Queens University 48.1% -1.76 4 3
337 San José State 47.7% -1.88 3 19
338 Alabama State 47.6% -1.90 3 18
339 Alabama A&M 47.5% -1.93 3 15
340 South Carolina State 47.2% -2.07 3 18
341 Mercyhurst 46.9% -2.14 2 1
342 Maine 46.8% -2.18 2 9
343 New Mexico 46.6% -2.26 2 20
344 Manhattan 46.6% -2.27 1 20
345 UT Rio Grande Valley 46.5% -2.29 1 15
346 Northern Illinois 46.5% -2.29 1 19
347 Mississippi Valley State 45.3% -2.70 1 24
348 Chicago State 44.8% -2.88 0 9
349 Fordham 44.8% -2.89 0 14