The Predictor
Which single stat best picks winners?
For every stat, each completed game is scored by which team entered with the better season-to-date value — built only from snapshots dated before tip-off, so nothing leaks. AUC measures how well that ordering separates winners from losers (0.50 = coin flip, 1.00 = perfect); better team wins is the plain share of games won by the team entering with the better value. Single stats are weak predictors on their own — the prediction models combine dozens of them. As of 2021-04-06.
| Stat | Category | AUC | Better team wins | Games | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scoring Margin | Scoring | 0.724 | 66.0% | 3,702 | |
| Offensive Efficiency | Efficiency | 0.703 | 64.5% | 3,702 | |
| Win Percentage (WP) | Results | 0.696 | 65.5% | 3,702 | |
| Points Per Game | Scoring | 0.667 | 61.5% | 3,702 | |
| Defensive Efficiency | Efficiency | 0.664 | 61.9% | 3,702 | |
| Assist-to-Turnover Ratio | Playmaking | 0.663 | 62.2% | 3,702 | |
| Total Rebound Percentage | Rebounding | 0.651 | 62.0% | 3,702 | |
| True Shooting Percentage | Shooting | 0.645 | 60.5% | 3,702 | |
| Opponent Points Per Game | Scoring | 0.640 | 60.5% | 3,702 | |
| Field Goal Percentage | Shooting | 0.640 | 59.9% | 3,702 | |
| Opponent Effective Field Goal Percentage | Four Factors | 0.637 | 60.4% | 3,702 | |
| Effective Field Goal Percentage | Four Factors | 0.637 | 60.7% | 3,702 | |
| Assists Per Game | Playmaking | 0.633 | 60.2% | 3,702 | |
| Rebounds Per Game | Rebounding | 0.621 | 59.5% | 3,702 | |
| Opponents' Opponents' Win Percentage (OOWP) | Results | 0.617 | 58.9% | 3,615 | |
| Turnover Rate | Four Factors | 0.617 | 58.2% | 3,702 | |
| Offensive Rebound Percentage | Four Factors | 0.613 | 58.5% | 3,702 | |
| Defensive Rebounds Per Game | Rebounding | 0.603 | 57.3% | 3,702 | |
| Defensive Rebound Percentage | Four Factors | 0.588 | 57.1% | 3,702 | |
| Offensive Rebounds Per Game | Rebounding | 0.577 | 56.3% | 3,702 | |
| Three-Point Percentage | Shooting | 0.574 | 55.8% | 3,702 | |
| Steal Rate | Defense | 0.568 | 55.4% | 3,702 | |
| Free Throw Percentage | Shooting | 0.564 | 54.2% | 3,702 | |
| Opponent Turnover Rate | Four Factors | 0.564 | 54.2% | 3,702 | |
| Block Percentage | Defense | 0.563 | 55.2% | 3,702 | |
| Assisted Field Goal Percentage | Playmaking | 0.556 | 54.1% | 3,702 | |
| Free Throw Rate | Four Factors | 0.547 | 53.1% | 3,702 | |
| Personal Fouls Per Game | Defense | 0.540 | 53.7% | 3,702 | |
| Opponent Free Throw Rate | Four Factors | 0.533 | 53.3% | 3,702 | |
| Opponents' Win Percentage (OWP) | Results | 0.512 | 51.2% | 3,615 | |
| Three-Point Attempt Rate | Shooting | 0.508 | 50.6% | 3,702 | |
| Scoring Volatility | Scoring | 0.497 | 50.4% | 3,477 | |
| Pace | Efficiency | 0.491 | 49.4% | 3,702 |
Rows in grey fall below AUC 0.55 — effectively no standalone predictive power. Defensive-direction stats are scored with their direction (lower is better) already applied.