I had 'em all out there steppin' and fetchin' like their heads were on fire and their asses was catchin'. "The Ballad of Uneasy Rider" - Charlie Daniels

Does it predict winners?

Weak standalone predictor of the winner.

See the game-by-game scatter on the Predictor page →

Team Distribution

Season-to-date value for every team, with a density curve.

min 34.8% max 63.4% mean 49.6% std 5.3% (n=349)

Team Rankings

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# Team Opponents' Win Percentage (OWP) z Pctl GP
1 West Virginia 63.4% +2.60 100 29
2 Mercyhurst 62.5% +2.42 100 1
3 USC 61.5% +2.24 99 33
4 UCLA 61.1% +2.15 99 32
5 BYU 61.0% +2.14 99 26
6 Saint Mary's 60.3% +2.01 99 24
7 Texas 60.1% +1.97 98 28
8 Oklahoma State 59.8% +1.92 98 30
9 Missouri 59.7% +1.90 98 26
10 Georgetown 59.6% +1.87 97 26
11 Wichita State 59.1% +1.78 97 20
12 Maryland 59.1% +1.78 97 30
13 Villanova 59.0% +1.77 97 25
14 Gonzaga 58.8% +1.72 96 32
15 Oklahoma 58.8% +1.72 96 27
16 Kentucky 58.7% +1.72 96 25
17 LSU 58.6% +1.70 95 29
18 Iowa State 58.3% +1.64 95 24
19 Boise State 58.2% +1.62 95 27
20 Baylor 58.1% +1.59 95 30
21 Alabama 58.0% +1.58 94 33
22 Rutgers 58.0% +1.58 94 28
23 Cleveland State 57.6% +1.50 94 27
24 UCF 57.6% +1.50 93 23
25 Bucknell 57.5% +1.49 93 12
26 Syracuse 57.5% +1.48 93 28
27 South Carolina 57.5% +1.48 93 21
28 Kansas 57.4% +1.47 92 30
29 Washington 57.4% +1.46 92 26
30 Michigan 57.4% +1.46 92 28
31 Clemson 57.4% +1.46 91 24
32 Auburn 57.4% +1.46 91 27
33 Illinois 57.3% +1.44 91 31
34 Penn State 57.2% +1.43 91 25
35 Houston 57.1% +1.41 90 31
36 UC San Diego 57.1% +1.40 90 14
37 Seton Hall 57.0% +1.39 90 27
38 Oregon State 57.0% +1.38 89 32
39 San Diego State 56.8% +1.35 89 27
40 Texas Tech 56.4% +1.28 89 29
41 Arkansas 56.4% +1.28 89 32
42 Central Arkansas 56.4% +1.27 88 23
43 Pepperdine 56.2% +1.25 88 25
44 Ohio State 56.2% +1.25 88 31
45 Queens University 56.1% +1.22 87 3
46 Nebraska 56.1% +1.22 87 26
47 VCU 56.0% +1.20 87 27
48 Saint Joseph's 56.0% +1.20 86 20
49 East Tennessee State 56.0% +1.20 86 23
50 Loyola Maryland 55.8% +1.16 86 17
51 Florida 55.6% +1.13 86 25
52 Richmond 55.5% +1.12 85 22
53 Duke 55.5% +1.11 85 25
54 Arizona State 55.3% +1.08 85 25
55 Mississippi State 55.3% +1.07 84 33
56 Little Rock 55.3% +1.07 84 25
57 TCU 55.2% +1.06 84 26
58 Stanford 55.2% +1.05 84 27
59 Wisconsin 55.1% +1.02 83 31
60 Pacific 55.0% +1.02 83 17
61 Northern Iowa 54.8% +0.99 83 23
62 Purdue 54.7% +0.97 82 28
63 Oregon 54.7% +0.96 82 29
64 North Carolina 54.6% +0.95 82 29
65 UConn 54.6% +0.94 82 23
66 Cincinnati 54.5% +0.92 81 23
67 Notre Dame 54.5% +0.91 81 26
68 Florida State 54.4% +0.90 81 26
69 Bradley 54.4% +0.90 80 26
70 Indiana 54.2% +0.87 80 27
71 Creighton 54.2% +0.87 80 31
72 Mount St. Mary's 54.2% +0.86 80 23
73 Louisville 54.1% +0.85 79 20
74 Memphis 54.0% +0.83 79 28
75 Louisiana Tech 54.0% +0.82 79 31
76 California 53.9% +0.82 78 28
77 Colorado 53.9% +0.81 78 32
78 Virginia 53.9% +0.81 78 26
79 Old Dominion 53.8% +0.79 78 22
80 Northeastern 53.8% +0.78 77 19
81 North Texas 53.7% +0.78 77 27
82 Kansas State 53.7% +0.77 77 28
83 James Madison 53.6% +0.75 76 17
84 American University 53.6% +0.75 76 10
85 Colorado State 53.6% +0.75 76 27
86 Louisiana 53.3% +0.70 76 24
87 Western Kentucky 53.3% +0.70 75 29
88 Loyola Marymount 53.3% +0.70 75 22
89 Xavier 53.3% +0.69 75 21
90 Oakland 53.3% +0.69 74 30
91 Utah State 53.2% +0.69 74 28
92 Providence 53.1% +0.67 74 26
93 Utah Valley 53.1% +0.66 74 20
94 Georgia Tech 53.1% +0.65 73 27
95 Iowa 53.0% +0.65 73 31
96 Virginia Tech 53.0% +0.64 73 22
97 Norfolk State 52.8% +0.61 72 24
98 Arizona 52.7% +0.59 72 26
99 South Florida 52.7% +0.59 72 21
100 UNC Greensboro 52.7% +0.58 72 30
101 South Carolina Upstate 52.7% +0.58 71 22
102 Portland 52.7% +0.57 71 18
103 Washington State 52.6% +0.56 71 27
104 Colgate 52.5% +0.54 70 16
105 Alcorn State 52.4% +0.52 70 19
106 Northern Arizona 52.3% +0.52 70 22
107 Evansville 52.3% +0.51 70 25
108 Miami 52.3% +0.50 69 27
109 Marquette 52.2% +0.49 69 27
110 Ole Miss 52.2% +0.49 69 28
111 Saint Francis 52.2% +0.48 68 22
112 Temple 52.2% +0.48 68 16
113 Santa Clara 52.1% +0.47 68 19
114 Arkansas State 52.1% +0.47 68 21
115 St. Bonaventure 52.0% +0.46 67 21
116 Loyola Chicago 52.0% +0.45 67 29
117 Utah 52.0% +0.45 67 25
118 Tennessee 51.9% +0.44 66 27
119 Marshall 51.9% +0.42 66 22
120 Minnesota 51.8% +0.41 66 29
121 UNLV 51.7% +0.40 66 25
122 La Salle 51.7% +0.40 65 24
123 Oral Roberts 51.7% +0.39 65 26
124 Georgia 51.7% +0.39 65 25
125 UTEP 51.7% +0.39 64 21
126 Iona 51.6% +0.38 64 18
127 Michigan State 51.6% +0.38 64 28
128 Kennesaw State 51.5% +0.36 64 21
129 Georgia State 51.5% +0.36 63 20
130 UT Arlington 51.4% +0.34 63 23
131 Army 51.4% +0.34 63 21
132 San Diego 51.4% +0.34 62 14
133 Indiana State 51.3% +0.32 62 24
134 Pittsburgh 51.3% +0.31 62 22
135 Wofford 51.1% +0.28 61 22
136 Hofstra 51.1% +0.28 61 23
137 Dayton 51.1% +0.27 61 24
138 Tarleton State 51.0% +0.26 61 15
139 UC Irvine 50.9% +0.25 60 25
140 Coppin State 50.9% +0.24 60 22
141 Boston College 50.8% +0.23 60 20
142 Monmouth 50.8% +0.22 59 20
143 George Washington 50.7% +0.21 59 17
144 Eastern Washington 50.7% +0.21 59 23
145 Tennessee Tech 50.7% +0.21 59 27
146 Butler 50.7% +0.20 58 25
147 Stony Brook 50.7% +0.20 58 22
148 Rider 50.6% +0.19 58 23
149 Sam Houston 50.6% +0.19 57 24
150 East Carolina 50.6% +0.19 57 18
151 NC State 50.6% +0.18 57 25
152 VMI 50.6% +0.18 57 22
153 App State 50.5% +0.17 56 25
154 Ohio 50.5% +0.17 56 24
155 The Citadel 50.4% +0.16 56 21
156 Mississippi Valley State 50.4% +0.15 55 24
157 SMU 50.4% +0.15 55 17
158 Binghamton 50.3% +0.14 55 18
159 Niagara 50.3% +0.14 55 20
160 Siena 50.2% +0.12 54 17
161 Rice 50.2% +0.12 54 25
162 UC Santa Barbara 50.2% +0.11 54 25
163 Canisius 50.2% +0.11 53 13
164 Hartford 50.2% +0.10 53 24
165 Furman 50.1% +0.09 53 22
166 Wake Forest 50.1% +0.08 53 21
167 Mercer 50.0% +0.08 52 26
168 Vanderbilt 50.0% +0.07 52 25
169 Morehead State 49.8% +0.04 52 29
170 Texas Southern 49.8% +0.04 51 25
171 UTSA 49.7% +0.03 51 22
172 Northwestern 49.7% +0.02 51 23
173 Central Connecticut 49.7% +0.02 51 21
174 Toledo 49.7% +0.02 50 30
175 Samford 49.6% -0.00 50 17
176 Wright State 49.6% -0.00 50 24
177 Fresno State 49.5% -0.02 49 22
178 Howard 49.4% -0.04 49 5
179 Bryant 49.4% -0.05 49 21
180 Boston University 49.3% -0.05 49 18
181 Tulsa 49.3% -0.06 48 21
182 Chicago State 49.3% -0.06 48 9
183 St. John's 49.3% -0.06 48 27
184 Nevada 49.3% -0.06 47 25
185 San Francisco 49.3% -0.06 47 25
186 Charleston Southern 49.2% -0.07 47 20
187 Fordham 49.2% -0.07 47 14
188 Lipscomb 49.1% -0.09 46 23
189 Air Force 49.1% -0.10 46 25
190 Towson 49.0% -0.12 46 18
191 Sacramento State 48.9% -0.13 45 18
192 Kent State 48.8% -0.15 45 22
193 Robert Morris 48.7% -0.17 45 18
194 Fairfield 48.7% -0.18 45 27
195 Middle Tennessee 48.6% -0.18 44 22
196 UAlbany 48.5% -0.21 44 16
197 Troy 48.4% -0.23 44 25
198 Green Bay 48.3% -0.24 43 25
199 Davidson 48.3% -0.24 43 21
200 Rhode Island 48.2% -0.26 43 25
201 South Alabama 48.2% -0.26 43 24
202 UMass Lowell 48.2% -0.27 42 23
203 George Mason 48.2% -0.27 42 22
204 Winthrop 48.1% -0.27 42 25
205 UL Monroe 48.1% -0.29 41 26
206 Tennessee State 48.0% -0.30 41 22
207 Elon 47.9% -0.31 41 18
208 Ball State 47.9% -0.32 41 23
209 Texas A&M 47.9% -0.32 40 18
210 Akron 47.9% -0.32 40 21
211 Omaha 47.8% -0.34 40 25
212 Fairleigh Dickinson 47.8% -0.34 39 24
213 DePaul 47.8% -0.35 39 19
214 Hawai'i 47.7% -0.36 39 19
215 Morgan State 47.7% -0.36 39 19
216 Missouri State 47.7% -0.37 38 22
217 Buffalo 47.6% -0.37 38 25
218 Jacksonville State 47.6% -0.37 38 25
219 Grand Canyon 47.6% -0.38 37 21
220 Navy 47.6% -0.38 37 18
221 Gardner-Webb 47.5% -0.39 37 26
222 Saint Louis 47.5% -0.40 36 21
223 Sacred Heart 47.4% -0.41 36 18
224 Quinnipiac 47.4% -0.41 36 22
225 North Carolina Central 47.3% -0.43 36 13
226 Charleston 47.3% -0.43 35 17
227 Massachusetts 47.3% -0.43 35 15
228 Abilene Christian 47.3% -0.43 35 25
229 Northern Kentucky 47.3% -0.44 34 25
230 St. Francis Brooklyn 47.2% -0.46 34 19
231 Eastern Michigan 47.1% -0.47 34 15
232 Coastal Carolina 47.1% -0.47 34 22
233 Southern 47.0% -0.49 33 19
234 Radford 47.0% -0.49 33 25
235 Saint Peter's 47.0% -0.50 33 25
236 Southern Illinois 46.9% -0.50 32 25
237 Wagner 46.9% -0.50 32 20
238 Western Carolina 46.9% -0.51 32 25
239 Bellarmine 46.8% -0.52 32 20
240 IU Indianapolis 46.8% -0.53 31 18
241 Chattanooga 46.7% -0.54 31 24
242 Drexel 46.7% -0.54 31 20
243 Illinois State 46.7% -0.55 30 24
244 Long Island University 46.5% -0.58 30 18
245 William & Mary 46.5% -0.59 30 17
246 Western Michigan 46.5% -0.59 30 20
247 Northwestern State 46.4% -0.60 29 28
248 UC Davis 46.4% -0.60 29 17
249 San José State 46.4% -0.60 29 19
250 Stetson 46.4% -0.61 28 24
251 Montana 46.3% -0.61 28 23
252 Valparaiso 46.3% -0.62 28 26
253 Long Beach State 46.3% -0.63 28 18
254 Holy Cross 46.2% -0.63 27 16
255 Merrimack 46.2% -0.63 27 18
256 Charlotte 46.2% -0.63 27 24
257 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 46.2% -0.64 26 21
258 Delaware 46.2% -0.64 26 14
259 Tulane 46.2% -0.64 26 23
260 Georgia Southern 46.2% -0.65 26 22
261 Austin Peay 46.1% -0.65 25 25
262 Detroit Mercy 46.1% -0.65 25 22
263 UAB 46.0% -0.68 25 27
264 Cal State Bakersfield 45.8% -0.72 24 24
265 Weber State 45.7% -0.73 24 20
266 Florida A&M 45.6% -0.75 24 20
267 SE Louisiana 45.6% -0.75 24 26
268 Bowling Green 45.5% -0.77 23 25
269 Duquesne 45.4% -0.78 23 18
270 Southeast Missouri State 45.3% -0.82 23 27
271 Miami (OH) 45.2% -0.83 22 22
272 Idaho 45.2% -0.83 22 22
273 Houston Christian 45.1% -0.84 22 24
274 UT Martin 45.0% -0.86 22 23
275 Drake 45.0% -0.87 21 29
276 Delaware State 45.0% -0.87 21 17
277 Marist 45.0% -0.87 21 21
278 Manhattan 44.9% -0.88 20 20
279 High Point 44.9% -0.89 20 24
280 Northern Colorado 44.8% -0.90 20 19
281 South Dakota State 44.8% -0.90 20 22
282 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 44.8% -0.91 19 25
283 North Florida 44.7% -0.91 19 21
284 Kansas City 44.7% -0.92 19 20
285 New Mexico 44.7% -0.93 18 20
286 New Hampshire 44.6% -0.94 18 18
287 Florida Atlantic 44.5% -0.96 18 19
288 Maine 44.3% -0.99 18 9
289 UMBC 44.3% -1.00 17 20
290 Cal Poly 44.2% -1.01 17 23
291 UT Rio Grande Valley 44.2% -1.02 17 15
292 UNC Asheville 44.1% -1.03 16 20
293 SIU Edwardsville 44.1% -1.04 16 25
294 Southern Utah 44.1% -1.04 16 19
295 Vermont 44.1% -1.04 16 15
296 Nicholls 44.0% -1.04 15 24
297 Lamar 44.0% -1.05 15 28
298 Utah Tech 44.0% -1.05 15 19
299 South Dakota 44.0% -1.06 14 24
300 North Dakota State 44.0% -1.06 14 27
301 Incarnate Word 43.9% -1.07 14 19
302 Longwood 43.9% -1.08 14 28
303 Southern Miss 43.8% -1.09 13 23
304 Youngstown State 43.8% -1.09 13 23
305 Grambling 43.7% -1.10 13 23
306 South Carolina State 43.7% -1.11 12 18
307 California Baptist 43.7% -1.12 12 19
308 Cal State Northridge 43.6% -1.13 12 21
309 Florida International 43.4% -1.17 11 22
310 Northern Illinois 43.2% -1.20 11 19
311 Liberty 43.1% -1.22 11 25
312 Idaho State 42.9% -1.27 11 19
313 North Dakota 42.8% -1.29 10 26
314 North Carolina A&T 42.7% -1.29 10 20
315 Portland State 42.7% -1.29 10 18
316 Campbell 42.7% -1.30 9 25
317 North Alabama 42.6% -1.32 9 20
318 Cal State Fullerton 42.4% -1.36 9 15
319 Wyoming 42.3% -1.37 9 25
320 Eastern Illinois 42.3% -1.37 8 27
321 Murray State 42.3% -1.37 8 24
322 New Orleans 42.3% -1.38 8 24
323 UC Riverside 42.3% -1.38 7 22
324 Montana State 42.1% -1.41 7 21
325 Belmont 42.1% -1.41 7 30
326 Lehigh 42.1% -1.41 7 15
327 New Mexico State 42.0% -1.43 6 17
328 Eastern Kentucky 42.0% -1.44 6 27
329 Milwaukee 41.8% -1.46 6 22
330 Stephen F. Austin 41.7% -1.49 5 18
331 Purdue Fort Wayne 41.6% -1.51 5 23
332 UNC Wilmington 41.5% -1.52 5 16
333 Central Michigan 41.3% -1.56 5 20
334 Denver 40.8% -1.65 4 20
335 Prairie View A&M 40.7% -1.68 4 21
336 UIC 40.5% -1.72 4 22
337 Alabama State 40.1% -1.79 3 18
338 Alabama A&M 39.9% -1.82 3 15
339 NJIT 39.9% -1.82 3 19
340 Texas State 39.4% -1.92 3 23
341 Jackson State 39.2% -1.95 2 18
342 Presbyterian 38.9% -2.02 2 21
343 Western Illinois 38.7% -2.05 2 21
344 Jacksonville 38.3% -2.13 1 22
345 Seattle U 37.9% -2.19 1 19
346 Florida Gulf Coast 37.6% -2.26 1 16
347 Hampton 36.6% -2.44 1 25
348 McNeese 36.5% -2.47 0 18
349 Lafayette 34.8% -2.78 0 15