I got a baby's brain and an old man's heart "I'm Eighteen" - Alice Cooper

Does it predict winners?

Predicts home win: AUC 0.64 (team entering with the better value wins 60% of games)

See the game-by-game scatter on the Predictor page →

Team Distribution

Season-to-date value for every team, with a density curve.

min 56.4 max 88.7 mean 71.0 std 5.2 (n=349)

Team Rankings

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# Team Opponent Points Per Game z Pctl GP
1 Loyola Chicago 56.4 -2.82 100 29
2 Virginia 58.2 -2.46 100 26
3 Houston 58.6 -2.39 99 31
4 UAB 60.7 -1.99 99 27
5 St. Bonaventure 61.1 -1.91 99 21
6 Saint Peter's 61.5 -1.84 99 25
7 Abilene Christian 61.6 -1.82 98 25
8 North Texas 61.7 -1.79 98 27
9 Texas State 61.9 -1.76 98 23
10 Clemson 61.9 -1.75 97 24
11 San Diego State 61.9 -1.75 97 27
12 Mount St. Mary's 62.2 -1.69 97 23
13 Utah State 62.3 -1.68 97 28
14 Liberty 62.5 -1.64 96 25
15 Saint Mary's 62.6 -1.62 96 24
16 Memphis 62.7 -1.60 96 28
17 VCU 62.8 -1.59 95 27
18 Grand Canyon 62.8 -1.58 95 21
19 Jackson State 62.8 -1.58 95 18
20 Siena 63.0 -1.54 95 17
21 Texas Tech 63.2 -1.50 94 29
22 Vermont 63.4 -1.47 94 15
23 Tennessee 63.5 -1.45 94 27
24 UC Santa Barbara 63.6 -1.44 93 25
25 Marist 63.6 -1.42 93 21
26 UC Riverside 63.6 -1.42 93 22
27 Ole Miss 63.6 -1.42 93 28
28 Colorado 63.8 -1.39 92 32
29 Hartford 63.9 -1.37 92 24
30 UC Irvine 64.1 -1.33 92 25
31 Prairie View A&M 64.2 -1.30 91 21
32 Idaho State 64.5 -1.25 91 19
33 Maine 64.6 -1.24 91 9
34 UConn 64.6 -1.24 91 23
35 Kansas City 64.6 -1.23 90 20
36 Wisconsin 64.6 -1.23 90 31
37 Morehead State 64.7 -1.22 90 29
38 Davidson 64.8 -1.20 89 21
39 Drake 64.8 -1.19 89 29
40 UMBC 64.9 -1.18 89 20
41 Michigan 65.1 -1.14 89 28
42 USC 65.1 -1.14 88 33
43 Niagara 65.2 -1.12 88 20
44 Kansas 65.2 -1.11 88 30
45 New Mexico State 65.4 -1.09 87 17
46 Louisiana Tech 65.4 -1.08 87 31
47 Saint Louis 65.4 -1.08 87 21
48 Baylor 65.5 -1.07 86 30
49 Cal State Bakersfield 65.7 -1.03 86 24
50 Elon 65.7 -1.02 86 18
51 Radford 65.8 -1.01 86 25
52 Texas 65.8 -1.01 85 28
53 Indiana State 65.8 -1.01 85 24
54 Maryland 65.9 -0.99 85 30
55 Virginia Tech 66.0 -0.97 84 22
56 Oregon 66.0 -0.96 84 29
57 Iona 66.1 -0.95 84 18
58 Tulsa 66.2 -0.93 84 21
59 Charlotte 66.4 -0.89 83 24
60 Colorado State 66.4 -0.88 83 27
61 Murray State 66.5 -0.88 83 24
62 Tulane 66.5 -0.87 82 23
63 Louisville 66.5 -0.87 82 20
64 Villanova 66.5 -0.86 82 25
65 Florida State 66.5 -0.86 82 26
66 Fordham 66.6 -0.85 81 14
67 Fairfield 66.7 -0.84 81 27
68 Merrimack 66.7 -0.84 81 18
69 Purdue 66.7 -0.83 80 28
70 Stony Brook 66.8 -0.81 80 22
71 Mississippi State 66.8 -0.80 80 33
72 Delaware 66.9 -0.80 80 14
73 Texas A&M 66.9 -0.78 79 18
74 Navy 67.0 -0.77 79 18
75 Winthrop 67.0 -0.76 79 25
76 Duquesne 67.1 -0.75 78 18
77 Alabama A&M 67.2 -0.73 78 15
78 Manhattan 67.3 -0.72 78 20
79 East Tennessee State 67.3 -0.72 78 23
80 Missouri State 67.3 -0.71 77 22
81 New Hampshire 67.3 -0.71 77 18
82 UNC Greensboro 67.3 -0.71 77 30
83 Boise State 67.4 -0.70 76 27
84 Drexel 67.4 -0.69 76 20
85 Wright State 67.4 -0.69 76 24
86 Georgia Tech 67.4 -0.69 76 27
87 Portland State 67.4 -0.69 75 18
88 Washington State 67.4 -0.69 75 27
89 Rutgers 67.6 -0.65 75 28
90 North Dakota State 67.7 -0.64 74 27
91 App State 67.7 -0.64 74 25
92 Dayton 67.8 -0.62 74 24
93 Longwood 67.8 -0.61 74 28
94 Southern Miss 67.9 -0.60 73 23
95 Campbell 67.9 -0.60 73 25
96 Loyola Marymount 68.0 -0.58 73 22
97 Western Kentucky 68.0 -0.58 72 29
98 Norfolk State 68.0 -0.57 72 24
99 Bradley 68.1 -0.56 72 26
100 Presbyterian 68.1 -0.56 72 21
101 SMU 68.1 -0.56 71 17
102 Tarleton State 68.1 -0.55 71 15
103 Old Dominion 68.1 -0.55 71 22
104 Creighton 68.2 -0.54 70 31
105 East Carolina 68.3 -0.53 70 18
106 Northeastern 68.3 -0.52 70 19
107 Southern Illinois 68.4 -0.51 70 25
108 Gardner-Webb 68.4 -0.51 69 26
109 Oregon State 68.4 -0.49 69 32
110 UCLA 68.4 -0.49 69 32
111 Wichita State 68.5 -0.49 68 20
112 Fresno State 68.5 -0.49 68 22
113 Duke 68.5 -0.49 68 25
114 Florida A&M 68.5 -0.48 68 20
115 UTEP 68.5 -0.48 67 21
116 Arizona 68.6 -0.47 67 26
117 Illinois 68.6 -0.45 67 31
118 Butler 68.7 -0.45 66 25
119 UAlbany 68.7 -0.45 66 16
120 Valparaiso 68.7 -0.45 66 26
121 Wagner 68.7 -0.44 66 20
122 Temple 68.8 -0.42 65 16
123 Bellarmine 68.9 -0.41 65 20
124 UL Monroe 68.9 -0.40 65 26
125 BYU 69.0 -0.39 64 26
126 Florida Atlantic 69.0 -0.39 64 19
127 Quinnipiac 69.0 -0.39 64 22
128 Grambling 69.1 -0.36 64 23
129 Belmont 69.1 -0.36 63 30
130 Montana 69.3 -0.34 63 23
131 Little Rock 69.3 -0.33 63 25
132 San Francisco 69.3 -0.33 62 25
133 Indiana 69.4 -0.31 62 27
134 UCF 69.4 -0.30 62 23
135 California 69.5 -0.28 61 28
136 Stanford 69.6 -0.27 61 27
137 Evansville 69.6 -0.27 61 25
138 Jacksonville State 69.6 -0.27 61 25
139 Colgate 69.6 -0.27 60 16
140 Seton Hall 69.7 -0.26 60 27
141 NC State 69.7 -0.26 60 25
142 Gonzaga 69.7 -0.25 59 32
143 UNLV 69.7 -0.25 59 25
144 Providence 69.7 -0.25 59 26
145 Chattanooga 69.8 -0.23 59 24
146 Utah 69.8 -0.23 58 25
147 Marquette 69.8 -0.23 58 27
148 Charleston 69.8 -0.23 58 17
149 Texas Southern 69.8 -0.22 57 25
150 Oklahoma 69.9 -0.22 57 27
151 Kansas State 69.9 -0.22 57 28
152 High Point 69.9 -0.22 57 24
153 George Mason 69.9 -0.21 56 22
154 Richmond 69.9 -0.21 56 22
155 Nevada 69.9 -0.21 56 25
156 North Carolina 69.9 -0.21 55 29
157 UT Rio Grande Valley 70.0 -0.19 55 15
158 Queens University 70.0 -0.19 55 3
159 Coastal Carolina 70.0 -0.18 55 22
160 Wofford 70.0 -0.18 54 22
161 Alabama 70.1 -0.18 54 33
162 Jacksonville 70.1 -0.18 54 22
163 Pittsburgh 70.1 -0.17 53 22
164 Syracuse 70.1 -0.17 53 28
165 NJIT 70.2 -0.16 53 19
166 Kentucky 70.2 -0.16 53 25
167 Xavier 70.2 -0.16 52 21
168 Lipscomb 70.2 -0.15 52 23
169 Southern 70.3 -0.14 52 19
170 Florida 70.3 -0.14 51 25
171 Hawai'i 70.3 -0.13 51 19
172 Georgia Southern 70.4 -0.12 51 22
173 Northern Colorado 70.5 -0.10 51 19
174 Furman 70.5 -0.10 50 22
175 Florida Gulf Coast 70.6 -0.09 50 16
176 Arkansas 70.8 -0.05 50 32
177 South Florida 70.8 -0.04 49 21
178 Weber State 70.9 -0.03 49 20
179 Santa Clara 70.9 -0.02 49 19
180 UMass Lowell 70.9 -0.02 49 23
181 Loyola Maryland 70.9 -0.01 48 17
182 Stephen F. Austin 70.9 -0.01 48 18
183 Miami 71.0 -0.01 48 27
184 Northwestern 71.0 -0.00 47 23
185 Eastern Washington 71.0 +0.01 47 23
186 Pacific 71.1 +0.01 47 17
187 Rhode Island 71.1 +0.01 47 25
188 Ohio State 71.1 +0.02 46 31
189 Michigan State 71.1 +0.02 46 28
190 Canisius 71.2 +0.03 46 13
191 Cleveland State 71.2 +0.04 45 27
192 TCU 71.2 +0.04 45 26
193 Northern Kentucky 71.2 +0.05 45 25
194 Army 71.3 +0.05 45 21
195 Austin Peay 71.4 +0.07 44 25
196 Middle Tennessee 71.4 +0.07 44 22
197 Arkansas State 71.4 +0.07 44 21
198 South Alabama 71.5 +0.09 43 24
199 Alabama State 71.6 +0.11 43 18
200 Troy 71.6 +0.12 43 25
201 North Carolina A&T 71.7 +0.12 43 20
202 Georgetown 71.7 +0.13 42 26
203 Southeast Missouri State 71.7 +0.14 42 27
204 Stetson 71.9 +0.17 42 24
205 Cal Poly 71.9 +0.18 41 23
206 Air Force 71.9 +0.18 41 25
207 Missouri 71.9 +0.18 41 26
208 James Madison 71.9 +0.18 41 17
209 DePaul 71.9 +0.18 40 19
210 Miami (OH) 72.0 +0.18 40 22
211 Seattle U 72.0 +0.19 40 19
212 William & Mary 72.0 +0.19 39 17
213 West Virginia 72.0 +0.20 39 29
214 Montana State 72.1 +0.21 39 21
215 Cincinnati 72.1 +0.22 39 23
216 UT Arlington 72.2 +0.23 38 23
217 UC Davis 72.2 +0.23 38 17
218 North Alabama 72.3 +0.24 38 20
219 George Washington 72.3 +0.25 37 17
220 UIC 72.3 +0.25 37 22
221 Binghamton 72.3 +0.26 37 18
222 Lamar 72.4 +0.26 36 28
223 Vanderbilt 72.4 +0.26 36 25
224 Wake Forest 72.4 +0.27 36 21
225 Northern Iowa 72.4 +0.28 36 23
226 Kent State 72.5 +0.28 35 22
227 North Carolina Central 72.5 +0.28 35 13
228 Marshall 72.5 +0.30 35 22
229 Mercer 72.6 +0.30 34 26
230 Ohio 72.6 +0.31 34 24
231 Toledo 72.6 +0.31 34 30
232 Kennesaw State 72.7 +0.32 34 21
233 Louisiana 72.7 +0.32 33 24
234 Oklahoma State 72.7 +0.33 33 30
235 Incarnate Word 72.7 +0.33 33 19
236 Iowa 72.7 +0.34 32 31
237 New Mexico 72.8 +0.34 32 20
238 Akron 72.8 +0.34 32 21
239 UNC Asheville 72.8 +0.35 32 20
240 Sam Houston 72.9 +0.36 31 24
241 Buffalo 72.9 +0.37 31 25
242 Long Island University 72.9 +0.37 31 18
243 Hofstra 73.0 +0.39 30 23
244 Massachusetts 73.0 +0.39 30 15
245 Penn State 73.0 +0.39 30 25
246 Minnesota 73.2 +0.42 30 29
247 Hampton 73.2 +0.43 29 25
248 Southern Utah 73.3 +0.45 29 19
249 Saint Francis 73.4 +0.46 29 22
250 South Dakota 73.4 +0.46 28 24
251 Illinois State 73.4 +0.47 28 24
252 Western Michigan 73.5 +0.47 28 20
253 Morgan State 73.6 +0.50 28 19
254 American University 73.6 +0.50 27 10
255 Nicholls 73.8 +0.54 27 24
256 Rice 73.9 +0.55 27 25
257 Boston University 73.9 +0.57 26 18
258 Sacramento State 73.9 +0.57 26 18
259 Detroit Mercy 74.0 +0.57 26 22
260 La Salle 74.0 +0.58 26 24
261 Rider 74.0 +0.58 25 23
262 SIU Edwardsville 74.1 +0.59 25 25
263 South Carolina Upstate 74.1 +0.60 25 22
264 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 74.1 +0.60 24 21
265 Georgia State 74.1 +0.60 24 20
266 UNC Wilmington 74.2 +0.61 24 16
267 Tennessee State 74.3 +0.63 24 22
268 Monmouth 74.3 +0.64 23 20
269 Notre Dame 74.3 +0.64 23 26
270 Utah Valley 74.5 +0.66 23 20
271 Northern Arizona 74.5 +0.68 22 22
272 South Dakota State 74.5 +0.68 22 22
273 Charleston Southern 74.6 +0.68 22 20
274 Nebraska 74.6 +0.70 22 26
275 Bowling Green 74.9 +0.75 21 25
276 Eastern Illinois 74.9 +0.76 21 27
277 Eastern Kentucky 74.9 +0.76 21 27
278 Towson 74.9 +0.76 20 18
279 Pepperdine 75.0 +0.77 20 25
280 Sacred Heart 75.0 +0.77 20 18
281 Youngstown State 75.0 +0.78 20 23
282 LSU 75.2 +0.81 19 29
283 Bryant 75.3 +0.83 19 21
284 North Florida 75.3 +0.83 19 21
285 UTSA 75.5 +0.86 18 22
286 Ball State 75.5 +0.86 18 23
287 Wyoming 75.5 +0.87 18 25
288 Alcorn State 75.6 +0.89 18 19
289 North Dakota 75.7 +0.91 17 26
290 IU Indianapolis 75.8 +0.92 17 18
291 Holy Cross 76.1 +0.98 17 16
292 Milwaukee 76.3 +1.02 16 22
293 Auburn 76.4 +1.05 16 27
294 Idaho 76.5 +1.05 16 22
295 Green Bay 76.5 +1.06 16 25
296 California Baptist 76.5 +1.07 15 19
297 UC San Diego 76.6 +1.07 15 14
298 Lehigh 76.6 +1.08 15 15
299 Lafayette 76.7 +1.09 14 15
300 Iowa State 76.7 +1.10 14 24
301 St. John's 76.7 +1.11 14 27
302 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 76.8 +1.13 14 25
303 Tennessee Tech 76.9 +1.13 13 27
304 San Diego 77.1 +1.17 13 14
305 Arizona State 77.1 +1.17 13 25
306 VMI 77.1 +1.18 12 22
307 Oral Roberts 77.2 +1.19 12 26
308 New Orleans 77.2 +1.20 12 24
309 Bucknell 77.3 +1.22 11 12
310 Central Connecticut 77.4 +1.23 11 21
311 Washington 77.4 +1.23 11 26
312 Northern Illinois 77.4 +1.24 11 19
313 Cal State Northridge 77.6 +1.28 10 21
314 SE Louisiana 77.7 +1.28 10 26
315 UT Martin 77.7 +1.29 10 23
316 Omaha 78.0 +1.34 9 25
317 McNeese 78.1 +1.37 9 18
318 Utah Tech 78.2 +1.39 9 19
319 Florida International 78.2 +1.39 9 22
320 South Carolina State 78.6 +1.46 8 18
321 Georgia 78.6 +1.46 8 25
322 Purdue Fort Wayne 78.7 +1.48 8 23
323 Fairleigh Dickinson 78.8 +1.49 7 24
324 Cal State Fullerton 79.1 +1.57 7 15
325 Coppin State 79.1 +1.57 7 22
326 South Carolina 79.1 +1.57 7 21
327 Long Beach State 79.4 +1.63 6 18
328 Western Carolina 79.5 +1.63 6 25
329 Boston College 79.5 +1.64 6 20
330 St. Francis Brooklyn 79.5 +1.64 5 19
331 Samford 79.6 +1.66 5 17
332 Denver 79.8 +1.70 5 20
333 Robert Morris 79.8 +1.70 5 18
334 Eastern Michigan 80.4 +1.81 4 15
335 Western Illinois 80.5 +1.84 4 21
336 Mercyhurst 81.0 +1.93 4 1
337 Northwestern State 81.0 +1.93 3 28
338 Houston Christian 81.1 +1.95 3 24
339 Oakland 81.2 +1.97 3 30
340 Central Michigan 81.9 +2.10 3 20
341 The Citadel 82.3 +2.18 2 21
342 San José State 82.4 +2.19 2 19
343 Saint Joseph's 82.6 +2.24 2 20
344 Central Arkansas 82.8 +2.28 1 23
345 Howard 84.8 +2.66 1 5
346 Portland 85.1 +2.72 1 18
347 Mississippi Valley State 87.4 +3.16 1 24
348 Delaware State 87.7 +3.22 0 17
349 Chicago State 88.7 +3.41 0 9