But anyone who ever had heart, they wouldn't turn around and break it. "Sweet Jane" - Lou Reed

Does it predict winners?

Weak standalone predictor of the winner.

See the game-by-game scatter on the Predictor page →

Team Distribution

Season-to-date value for every team, with a density curve.

min 13.9% max 39.2% mean 22.6% std 3.9% (n=349)

Team Rankings

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# Team Opponent Free Throw Rate z Pctl GP
1 Miami 13.9% -2.22 100 27
2 Mercyhurst 14.1% -2.18 100 1
3 Notre Dame 14.4% -2.09 99 26
4 Oakland 14.9% -1.96 99 30
5 Iowa 15.0% -1.94 99 31
6 Wright State 15.3% -1.87 99 24
7 Rice 15.5% -1.82 98 25
8 Morehead State 15.7% -1.75 98 29
9 Detroit Mercy 15.9% -1.72 98 22
10 Lipscomb 15.9% -1.71 97 23
11 Hartford 16.2% -1.63 97 24
12 Loyola Chicago 16.2% -1.63 97 29
13 VMI 16.2% -1.63 97 22
14 UC San Diego 16.5% -1.55 96 14
15 Western Kentucky 16.5% -1.54 96 29
16 Chattanooga 16.6% -1.53 96 24
17 Dayton 16.7% -1.51 95 24
18 Colorado State 16.7% -1.50 95 27
19 Belmont 16.8% -1.47 95 30
20 George Washington 16.8% -1.47 95 17
21 App State 17.1% -1.41 94 25
22 William & Mary 17.1% -1.39 94 17
23 Southern Illinois 17.2% -1.39 94 25
24 Toledo 17.3% -1.36 93 30
25 Wofford 17.3% -1.35 93 22
26 Xavier 17.3% -1.35 93 21
27 Jacksonville State 17.4% -1.34 93 25
28 Siena 17.5% -1.31 92 17
29 Portland 17.5% -1.31 92 18
30 USC 17.7% -1.25 92 33
31 Villanova 17.7% -1.24 91 25
32 Oklahoma 17.8% -1.23 91 27
33 Army 17.8% -1.23 91 21
34 Maryland 17.9% -1.21 91 30
35 Syracuse 17.9% -1.21 90 28
36 Creighton 17.9% -1.20 90 31
37 Georgetown 17.9% -1.20 90 26
38 Colgate 18.0% -1.17 89 16
39 Gonzaga 18.1% -1.16 89 32
40 Charlotte 18.1% -1.16 89 24
41 South Alabama 18.2% -1.12 89 24
42 Marshall 18.3% -1.10 88 22
43 Radford 18.3% -1.09 88 25
44 UMBC 18.3% -1.09 88 20
45 Michigan 18.5% -1.05 87 28
46 Virginia 18.5% -1.04 87 25
47 Mississippi State 18.5% -1.04 87 33
48 Florida Gulf Coast 18.6% -1.03 86 16
49 Lamar 18.6% -1.02 86 28
50 North Dakota State 18.7% -1.00 86 27
51 North Carolina 18.7% -0.98 86 29
52 Tennessee Tech 18.8% -0.96 85 27
53 UAB 18.9% -0.95 85 27
54 Utah State 18.9% -0.95 85 28
55 Howard 18.9% -0.94 84 5
56 St. Bonaventure 19.0% -0.93 84 21
57 Youngstown State 19.0% -0.92 84 23
58 Western Michigan 19.0% -0.92 84 20
59 Fordham 19.1% -0.89 83 14
60 Eastern Michigan 19.1% -0.89 83 15
61 Hofstra 19.2% -0.88 83 23
62 Furman 19.2% -0.86 82 22
63 Mount St. Mary's 19.2% -0.86 82 23
64 West Virginia 19.3% -0.84 82 29
65 Sacred Heart 19.3% -0.84 82 18
66 Illinois State 19.3% -0.83 81 24
67 Mercer 19.4% -0.83 81 26
68 Texas A&M 19.4% -0.82 81 18
69 Jacksonville 19.4% -0.81 80 22
70 Miami (OH) 19.4% -0.81 80 22
71 Missouri State 19.5% -0.80 80 22
72 Louisiana Tech 19.5% -0.79 80 31
73 Kansas 19.6% -0.77 79 29
74 Indiana State 19.6% -0.76 79 24
75 Drexel 19.7% -0.75 79 20
76 Akron 19.7% -0.75 78 21
77 Bryant 19.7% -0.75 78 21
78 UC Riverside 19.7% -0.74 78 22
79 Louisville 19.7% -0.74 78 20
80 Cal State Fullerton 19.7% -0.73 77 15
81 Western Carolina 19.8% -0.72 77 25
82 Coppin State 19.8% -0.72 77 22
83 Kent State 19.8% -0.72 76 22
84 San José State 19.9% -0.70 76 19
85 UC Irvine 19.9% -0.69 76 25
86 Utah 19.9% -0.69 76 25
87 Boston University 19.9% -0.69 75 18
88 Arkansas 19.9% -0.68 75 32
89 Butler 20.0% -0.67 75 25
90 Tulane 20.0% -0.67 74 23
91 Eastern Washington 20.0% -0.66 74 23
92 The Citadel 20.1% -0.65 74 21
93 Wichita State 20.1% -0.65 74 20
94 Long Island University 20.1% -0.64 73 18
95 UCLA 20.1% -0.64 73 32
96 BYU 20.1% -0.63 73 26
97 TCU 20.2% -0.62 72 26
98 Clemson 20.2% -0.62 72 24
99 Little Rock 20.2% -0.61 72 25
100 Valparaiso 20.2% -0.61 72 26
101 UAlbany 20.2% -0.60 71 16
102 Stanford 20.3% -0.60 71 27
103 Saint Mary's 20.3% -0.59 71 24
104 Bradley 20.3% -0.59 70 26
105 Houston Christian 20.3% -0.58 70 24
106 Wisconsin 20.3% -0.58 70 31
107 Georgia Tech 20.3% -0.58 70 26
108 Boise State 20.4% -0.57 69 27
109 Fairfield 20.4% -0.57 69 27
110 Oregon 20.4% -0.57 69 28
111 Bellarmine 20.4% -0.57 68 20
112 George Mason 20.4% -0.56 68 22
113 Middle Tennessee 20.5% -0.55 68 22
114 Northeastern 20.5% -0.54 68 19
115 NJIT 20.5% -0.54 67 19
116 Northern Iowa 20.5% -0.54 67 23
117 Richmond 20.5% -0.54 67 22
118 Seton Hall 20.5% -0.54 66 27
119 Troy 20.5% -0.54 66 25
120 Arkansas State 20.5% -0.53 66 21
121 Purdue 20.5% -0.53 66 28
122 Hawai'i 20.6% -0.51 65 19
123 Nebraska 20.6% -0.51 65 26
124 NC State 20.6% -0.50 65 25
125 Illinois 20.7% -0.50 64 31
126 Southern Miss 20.7% -0.49 64 23
127 Stony Brook 20.7% -0.49 64 22
128 Old Dominion 20.7% -0.49 64 22
129 Boston College 20.7% -0.49 63 20
130 UC Santa Barbara 20.7% -0.48 63 25
131 Coastal Carolina 20.8% -0.47 63 22
132 UT Arlington 20.8% -0.46 62 23
133 Davidson 20.9% -0.43 62 21
134 South Dakota State 20.9% -0.43 62 22
135 McNeese 21.0% -0.42 61 18
136 Stetson 21.0% -0.41 61 24
137 Providence 21.1% -0.39 61 26
138 Southern Utah 21.1% -0.39 61 19
139 Grand Canyon 21.1% -0.39 60 21
140 Saint Francis 21.1% -0.38 60 22
141 Central Michigan 21.1% -0.37 60 20
142 Alabama 21.1% -0.37 59 33
143 Central Arkansas 21.2% -0.36 59 23
144 Towson 21.2% -0.36 59 18
145 North Carolina A&T 21.2% -0.36 59 19
146 Central Connecticut 21.2% -0.36 58 21
147 Colorado 21.2% -0.36 58 32
148 Liberty 21.2% -0.36 58 25
149 Bowling Green 21.3% -0.35 57 25
150 LSU 21.3% -0.34 57 29
151 Drake 21.6% -0.25 57 29
152 Buffalo 21.6% -0.25 57 25
153 Auburn 21.7% -0.24 56 27
154 St. John's 21.7% -0.24 56 27
155 Maine 21.7% -0.22 56 9
156 Baylor 21.7% -0.22 55 30
157 Murray State 21.8% -0.21 55 24
158 Marquette 21.8% -0.20 55 27
159 Mississippi Valley State 21.9% -0.19 55 24
160 Northern Kentucky 21.9% -0.18 54 25
161 Georgia 21.9% -0.18 54 25
162 Santa Clara 21.9% -0.17 54 19
163 Kentucky 22.0% -0.16 53 25
164 Temple 22.0% -0.15 53 16
165 East Tennessee State 22.1% -0.13 53 23
166 Navy 22.1% -0.13 53 18
167 Oral Roberts 22.1% -0.12 52 26
168 Saint Joseph's 22.1% -0.12 52 20
169 Campbell 22.2% -0.11 52 25
170 Florida A&M 22.2% -0.10 51 20
171 Virginia Tech 22.2% -0.09 51 22
172 North Texas 22.2% -0.09 51 27
173 Tennessee 22.3% -0.09 51 27
174 Marist 22.3% -0.07 50 21
175 Ohio 22.4% -0.05 50 24
176 Louisiana 22.4% -0.05 50 24
177 Bucknell 22.4% -0.05 49 12
178 Georgia Southern 22.4% -0.04 49 22
179 Austin Peay 22.4% -0.04 49 25
180 Binghamton 22.5% -0.03 49 18
181 Duke 22.5% -0.02 48 24
182 Wake Forest 22.6% -0.01 48 21
183 Oklahoma State 22.6% -0.01 48 30
184 Charleston Southern 22.6% +0.00 47 20
185 Eastern Illinois 22.6% +0.00 47 27
186 Air Force 22.6% +0.00 47 25
187 Massachusetts 22.6% +0.00 47 15
188 UNC Asheville 22.7% +0.01 46 20
189 Purdue Fort Wayne 22.7% +0.03 46 23
190 Canisius 22.8% +0.04 46 13
191 Chicago State 22.8% +0.04 45 9
192 Rutgers 22.8% +0.06 45 28
193 Winthrop 22.9% +0.08 45 25
194 Arizona 22.9% +0.08 45 26
195 Omaha 22.9% +0.08 44 25
196 Tulsa 23.1% +0.12 44 21
197 Quinnipiac 23.1% +0.13 44 22
198 Washington State 23.1% +0.13 43 27
199 High Point 23.2% +0.14 43 24
200 UCF 23.2% +0.15 43 23
201 Rhode Island 23.2% +0.16 43 25
202 Delaware 23.2% +0.16 42 14
203 Green Bay 23.2% +0.16 42 25
204 Merrimack 23.2% +0.16 42 18
205 North Dakota 23.2% +0.16 41 26
206 Niagara 23.2% +0.16 41 20
207 SIU Edwardsville 23.2% +0.16 41 25
208 Ole Miss 23.2% +0.16 41 28
209 UIC 23.3% +0.17 40 22
210 North Florida 23.3% +0.17 40 21
211 Weber State 23.3% +0.17 40 20
212 Lafayette 23.3% +0.17 39 15
213 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 23.3% +0.18 39 21
214 Fairleigh Dickinson 23.4% +0.21 39 24
215 Vermont 23.5% +0.22 39 15
216 Pittsburgh 23.5% +0.24 38 22
217 Texas State 23.6% +0.24 38 23
218 Eastern Kentucky 23.6% +0.25 38 27
219 Incarnate Word 23.6% +0.26 37 19
220 South Florida 23.7% +0.27 37 21
221 Ohio State 23.7% +0.29 37 31
222 Kansas State 23.7% +0.29 36 28
223 Sacramento State 23.8% +0.31 36 18
224 Northwestern 23.9% +0.32 36 23
225 Kennesaw State 23.9% +0.32 36 21
226 Minnesota 23.9% +0.32 35 29
227 UNC Wilmington 23.9% +0.33 35 16
228 Evansville 23.9% +0.33 35 25
229 San Diego State 23.9% +0.33 34 27
230 SMU 24.0% +0.35 34 17
231 Nicholls 24.0% +0.35 34 24
232 Memphis 24.0% +0.36 34 28
233 Texas Southern 24.0% +0.36 33 25
234 Vanderbilt 24.0% +0.36 33 25
235 Georgia State 24.0% +0.37 33 20
236 Indiana 24.0% +0.37 32 27
237 Pacific 24.2% +0.40 32 17
238 New Mexico State 24.2% +0.40 32 17
239 Wyoming 24.2% +0.40 32 25
240 Texas Tech 24.2% +0.41 31 29
241 Utah Tech 24.2% +0.42 31 19
242 Loyola Maryland 24.3% +0.42 31 17
243 Northwestern State 24.3% +0.42 30 28
244 Rider 24.3% +0.44 30 23
245 Lehigh 24.3% +0.44 30 15
246 UL Monroe 24.4% +0.45 30 26
247 Longwood 24.4% +0.46 29 28
248 Northern Arizona 24.4% +0.46 29 22
249 New Mexico 24.4% +0.46 29 20
250 Ball State 24.5% +0.47 28 23
251 Penn State 24.5% +0.47 28 25
252 UNLV 24.5% +0.48 28 25
253 VCU 24.6% +0.50 28 26
254 Texas 24.6% +0.51 27 27
255 South Carolina Upstate 24.6% +0.51 27 22
256 Long Beach State 24.6% +0.51 27 18
257 Hampton 24.7% +0.53 26 25
258 California 24.7% +0.53 26 28
259 Washington 24.7% +0.53 26 26
260 San Diego 24.7% +0.53 26 14
261 Charleston 24.7% +0.54 25 17
262 North Alabama 24.8% +0.56 25 20
263 Northern Illinois 24.8% +0.56 25 19
264 Idaho State 24.8% +0.57 24 19
265 Florida 24.9% +0.59 24 25
266 Cal State Northridge 24.9% +0.59 24 21
267 Duquesne 24.9% +0.59 24 18
268 Robert Morris 24.9% +0.59 23 18
269 California Baptist 25.0% +0.60 23 19
270 Loyola Marymount 25.0% +0.60 23 22
271 Fresno State 25.0% +0.61 22 22
272 James Madison 25.0% +0.61 22 17
273 Milwaukee 25.0% +0.61 22 22
274 Pepperdine 25.1% +0.63 22 25
275 Alabama A&M 25.1% +0.65 21 15
276 Holy Cross 25.2% +0.65 21 16
277 DePaul 25.4% +0.71 21 19
278 UT Martin 25.5% +0.74 20 23
279 Grambling 25.5% +0.74 20 23
280 Florida International 25.6% +0.75 20 22
281 American University 25.7% +0.79 20 10
282 Alabama State 25.7% +0.80 19 18
283 IU Indianapolis 25.8% +0.81 19 18
284 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 25.8% +0.82 19 25
285 Florida State 25.8% +0.82 18 25
286 UNC Greensboro 25.8% +0.82 18 30
287 UConn 26.0% +0.86 18 23
288 Cal Poly 26.1% +0.88 18 23
289 South Dakota 26.1% +0.89 17 24
290 Utah Valley 26.1% +0.90 17 20
291 Missouri 26.2% +0.91 17 26
292 Northern Colorado 26.2% +0.93 16 19
293 Elon 26.3% +0.94 16 18
294 New Orleans 26.3% +0.95 16 24
295 Saint Peter's 26.4% +0.96 16 25
296 Michigan State 26.4% +0.97 15 28
297 South Carolina State 26.4% +0.97 15 18
298 Monmouth 26.6% +1.02 15 20
299 Saint Louis 26.7% +1.04 14 21
300 Idaho 26.7% +1.04 14 22
301 Gardner-Webb 26.7% +1.05 14 26
302 Samford 26.8% +1.07 14 17
303 Iowa State 26.8% +1.08 13 24
304 Florida Atlantic 26.9% +1.08 13 19
305 La Salle 26.9% +1.09 13 24
306 Arizona State 26.9% +1.10 12 25
307 Houston 27.0% +1.12 12 31
308 Montana 27.0% +1.13 12 23
309 Southeast Missouri State 27.1% +1.16 11 27
310 East Carolina 27.2% +1.16 11 18
311 Cleveland State 27.5% +1.24 11 27
312 Oregon State 28.0% +1.37 11 32
313 North Carolina Central 28.0% +1.39 10 13
314 New Hampshire 28.1% +1.41 10 18
315 Southern 28.1% +1.41 10 19
316 Western Illinois 28.2% +1.42 9 21
317 Prairie View A&M 28.3% +1.44 9 21
318 UMass Lowell 28.3% +1.45 9 23
319 Abilene Christian 28.3% +1.45 9 25
320 Sam Houston 28.3% +1.46 8 24
321 Jackson State 28.3% +1.46 8 18
322 Cincinnati 28.5% +1.49 8 23
323 SE Louisiana 28.6% +1.53 7 26
324 Norfolk State 28.8% +1.57 7 23
325 UTSA 28.9% +1.60 7 22
326 St. Francis Brooklyn 28.9% +1.60 7 19
327 Queens University 28.9% +1.61 6 3
328 UTEP 29.0% +1.62 6 21
329 Montana State 29.3% +1.71 6 21
330 UC Davis 29.3% +1.72 5 17
331 Presbyterian 29.4% +1.74 5 21
332 Nevada 29.5% +1.76 5 25
333 South Carolina 29.7% +1.81 5 21
334 San Francisco 29.9% +1.85 4 25
335 Cal State Bakersfield 30.2% +1.93 4 24
336 UT Rio Grande Valley 30.6% +2.03 4 15
337 Seattle U 30.6% +2.03 3 19
338 Morgan State 30.8% +2.08 3 19
339 Stephen F. Austin 31.3% +2.21 3 18
340 Tennessee State 31.4% +2.25 3 22
341 Iona 31.6% +2.29 2 18
342 Wagner 32.0% +2.41 2 20
343 Delaware State 32.4% +2.50 2 17
344 Portland State 32.5% +2.51 1 18
345 Tarleton State 32.9% +2.62 1 15
346 Manhattan 33.0% +2.66 1 20
347 Denver 33.2% +2.70 1 20
348 Alcorn State 34.0% +2.90 0 19
349 Kansas City 39.2% +4.22 0 20