But anyone who ever had heart, they wouldn't turn around and break it. "Sweet Jane" - Lou Reed
← Four Factors

Opponent Effective Field Goal Percentage

Opponent eFG%; a defense's shot-quality suppression.

(opponent FGM + 0.5×opponent 3PM) ÷ opponent FGA — effective field goal percentage computed on what opponents shot against this team.

Lower is better  ·  league avg 50.3%  ·  as of 2021-04-06

Does it predict winners?

Predicts home win: AUC 0.64 (team entering with the better value wins 60% of games)

See the game-by-game scatter on the Predictor page →

Team Distribution

Season-to-date value for every team, with a density curve.

min 43.7% max 60.1% mean 50.3% std 2.8% (n=349)

Team Rankings

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# Team Opponent Effective Field Goal Percentage z Pctl GP
1 Jackson State 43.7% -2.33 100 18
2 Houston 43.9% -2.24 100 31
3 Alabama A&M 44.0% -2.21 99 15
4 Quinnipiac 44.2% -2.16 99 22
5 Memphis 44.4% -2.08 99 28
6 Michigan 44.4% -2.07 99 28
7 USC 44.9% -1.91 98 33
8 Saint Peter's 44.9% -1.90 98 25
9 Wright State 45.1% -1.82 98 24
10 Mount St. Mary's 45.4% -1.71 97 23
11 Grand Canyon 45.5% -1.67 97 21
12 St. Bonaventure 45.5% -1.67 97 21
13 UC Irvine 45.6% -1.65 97 25
14 Utah State 45.6% -1.63 96 28
15 Marist 45.7% -1.60 96 21
16 Alabama 45.8% -1.59 96 33
17 UC Riverside 45.8% -1.58 95 22
18 Colgate 45.8% -1.57 95 16
19 VCU 45.8% -1.56 95 26
20 Iona 46.0% -1.53 95 18
21 Siena 46.0% -1.52 94 17
22 Abilene Christian 46.0% -1.50 94 25
23 Texas 46.1% -1.48 94 27
24 Florida State 46.1% -1.46 93 25
25 Buffalo 46.2% -1.44 93 25
26 Louisiana Tech 46.3% -1.40 93 31
27 Tennessee 46.3% -1.40 93 27
28 North Texas 46.4% -1.35 92 27
29 UMBC 46.4% -1.35 92 20
30 Illinois 46.5% -1.34 92 31
31 Coastal Carolina 46.5% -1.32 91 22
32 Washington State 46.6% -1.29 91 27
33 Kentucky 46.7% -1.27 91 25
34 Grambling 46.7% -1.26 91 23
35 Bryant 46.7% -1.26 90 21
36 Texas Southern 46.7% -1.25 90 25
37 UConn 46.7% -1.25 90 23
38 BYU 46.9% -1.18 89 26
39 Wichita State 47.0% -1.17 89 20
40 Vermont 47.0% -1.16 89 15
41 UAB 47.0% -1.15 89 27
42 Creighton 47.0% -1.14 88 31
43 Oklahoma State 47.1% -1.13 88 30
44 Mississippi State 47.1% -1.13 88 33
45 Loyola Chicago 47.2% -1.10 87 29
46 Duquesne 47.3% -1.06 87 18
47 Southern 47.3% -1.05 87 19
48 Temple 47.3% -1.05 86 16
49 Rutgers 47.3% -1.05 86 28
50 SMU 47.3% -1.04 86 17
51 Prairie View A&M 47.4% -1.03 86 21
52 Morehead State 47.4% -1.01 85 29
53 Santa Clara 47.4% -1.00 85 19
54 Missouri State 47.5% -1.00 85 22
55 San Diego State 47.5% -0.96 84 27
56 Norfolk State 47.6% -0.95 84 23
57 Xavier 47.6% -0.94 84 21
58 Marquette 47.7% -0.92 84 27
59 Hartford 47.7% -0.92 83 24
60 Texas Tech 47.7% -0.91 83 29
61 Gonzaga 47.7% -0.91 83 32
62 Liberty 47.7% -0.90 82 25
63 Saint Mary's 47.8% -0.87 82 24
64 Florida 47.8% -0.87 82 25
65 Rhode Island 47.8% -0.86 82 25
66 Wisconsin 47.8% -0.86 81 31
67 UC Santa Barbara 47.8% -0.86 81 25
68 Arkansas 47.9% -0.85 81 32
69 Florida A&M 47.9% -0.84 80 20
70 Manhattan 47.9% -0.84 80 20
71 Colorado 47.9% -0.83 80 32
72 Coppin State 47.9% -0.83 80 22
73 Virginia 48.0% -0.82 79 25
74 DePaul 48.0% -0.82 79 19
75 Merrimack 48.0% -0.81 79 18
76 Eastern Washington 48.0% -0.81 78 23
77 Idaho State 48.0% -0.81 78 19
78 Syracuse 48.0% -0.79 78 28
79 Kansas 48.0% -0.79 78 29
80 Morgan State 48.0% -0.78 77 19
81 UIC 48.0% -0.78 77 22
82 Michigan State 48.1% -0.78 77 28
83 Delaware 48.1% -0.77 76 14
84 Jacksonville State 48.1% -0.76 76 25
85 UT Rio Grande Valley 48.1% -0.76 76 15
86 UNC Greensboro 48.2% -0.74 76 30
87 Stanford 48.3% -0.71 75 27
88 Drake 48.3% -0.71 75 29
89 Northeastern 48.3% -0.70 75 19
90 Stony Brook 48.3% -0.69 74 22
91 Saint Louis 48.3% -0.68 74 21
92 Louisiana 48.4% -0.67 74 24
93 UMass Lowell 48.4% -0.66 74 23
94 Ole Miss 48.4% -0.66 73 28
95 Louisville 48.4% -0.65 73 20
96 Nevada 48.4% -0.65 73 25
97 Dayton 48.5% -0.64 72 24
98 Tulsa 48.5% -0.63 72 21
99 LSU 48.5% -0.62 72 29
100 Missouri 48.5% -0.62 72 26
101 Sam Houston 48.5% -0.62 71 24
102 Toledo 48.6% -0.61 71 30
103 Providence 48.6% -0.59 71 26
104 Akron 48.6% -0.58 70 21
105 Monmouth 48.6% -0.58 70 20
106 Oregon State 48.6% -0.58 70 32
107 Gardner-Webb 48.6% -0.58 70 26
108 Ohio State 48.7% -0.57 69 31
109 Clemson 48.7% -0.57 69 24
110 Florida Gulf Coast 48.7% -0.57 69 16
111 Maine 48.7% -0.57 68 9
112 Utah Valley 48.7% -0.56 68 20
113 Maryland 48.7% -0.55 68 30
114 Georgia State 48.8% -0.53 68 20
115 Belmont 48.8% -0.52 67 30
116 Iowa 48.8% -0.51 67 31
117 Purdue 48.8% -0.51 67 28
118 Indiana 48.8% -0.51 66 27
119 Virginia Tech 48.8% -0.50 66 22
120 Colorado State 48.9% -0.49 66 27
121 East Carolina 48.9% -0.47 66 18
122 Baylor 48.9% -0.47 65 30
123 Ball State 48.9% -0.47 65 23
124 Georgetown 48.9% -0.47 65 26
125 Alabama State 48.9% -0.47 64 18
126 Cleveland State 49.0% -0.45 64 27
127 Oklahoma 49.1% -0.42 64 27
128 Winthrop 49.1% -0.42 64 25
129 North Carolina 49.1% -0.41 63 29
130 Fairfield 49.1% -0.40 63 27
131 Northern Colorado 49.2% -0.39 63 19
132 Arizona 49.2% -0.38 62 26
133 Boise State 49.2% -0.38 62 27
134 Nicholls 49.2% -0.38 62 24
135 Hampton 49.2% -0.37 61 25
136 UCF 49.3% -0.34 61 23
137 Loyola Maryland 49.3% -0.33 61 17
138 Western Kentucky 49.4% -0.31 61 29
139 Seton Hall 49.4% -0.30 60 27
140 Long Beach State 49.4% -0.29 60 18
141 Niagara 49.5% -0.28 60 20
142 New Mexico State 49.5% -0.27 59 17
143 New Hampshire 49.5% -0.26 59 18
144 South Dakota 49.5% -0.26 59 24
145 Arkansas State 49.6% -0.25 59 21
146 Elon 49.6% -0.25 58 18
147 Cincinnati 49.6% -0.25 58 23
148 Auburn 49.6% -0.24 58 27
149 Bucknell 49.6% -0.24 57 12
150 Texas State 49.6% -0.23 57 23
151 Kent State 49.6% -0.23 57 22
152 Montana 49.6% -0.22 57 23
153 UTEP 49.6% -0.22 56 21
154 James Madison 49.6% -0.22 56 17
155 South Alabama 49.7% -0.22 56 24
156 Murray State 49.7% -0.22 55 24
157 Montana State 49.7% -0.22 55 21
158 Florida Atlantic 49.7% -0.22 55 19
159 Tulane 49.7% -0.21 55 23
160 Minnesota 49.7% -0.20 54 29
161 San Francisco 49.7% -0.19 54 25
162 UNC Asheville 49.7% -0.19 54 20
163 Nebraska 49.8% -0.18 53 26
164 Long Island University 49.9% -0.13 53 18
165 Weber State 49.9% -0.13 53 20
166 Marshall 49.9% -0.12 53 22
167 Radford 49.9% -0.12 52 25
168 North Dakota State 49.9% -0.12 52 27
169 UT Arlington 50.0% -0.11 52 23
170 App State 50.0% -0.11 51 25
171 Old Dominion 50.0% -0.10 51 22
172 Pepperdine 50.0% -0.10 51 25
173 Pittsburgh 50.0% -0.10 51 22
174 Davidson 50.0% -0.08 50 21
175 Oral Roberts 50.1% -0.08 50 26
176 Hawai'i 50.1% -0.06 50 19
177 Northwestern 50.1% -0.06 49 23
178 George Mason 50.1% -0.06 49 22
179 Drexel 50.1% -0.05 49 20
180 Western Michigan 50.2% -0.04 49 20
181 American University 50.2% -0.04 48 10
182 Mercer 50.2% -0.03 48 26
183 North Florida 50.3% -0.00 48 21
184 Wagner 50.3% +0.01 47 20
185 Valparaiso 50.3% +0.01 47 26
186 Southern Miss 50.3% +0.01 47 23
187 UL Monroe 50.4% +0.04 47 26
188 East Tennessee State 50.4% +0.04 46 23
189 UCLA 50.4% +0.05 46 32
190 Seattle U 50.5% +0.07 46 19
191 VMI 50.5% +0.07 45 22
192 Canisius 50.5% +0.09 45 13
193 Cal Poly 50.5% +0.09 45 23
194 Cal State Bakersfield 50.6% +0.11 45 24
195 Charleston Southern 50.7% +0.14 44 20
196 Sacred Heart 50.7% +0.14 44 18
197 Little Rock 50.7% +0.15 44 25
198 TCU 50.7% +0.16 43 26
199 Ohio 50.7% +0.17 43 24
200 Oregon 50.8% +0.17 43 28
201 Portland State 50.8% +0.18 43 18
202 Loyola Marymount 50.8% +0.19 42 22
203 Notre Dame 50.8% +0.20 42 26
204 UTSA 50.9% +0.21 42 22
205 Stephen F. Austin 50.9% +0.22 41 18
206 Charlotte 50.9% +0.22 41 24
207 Massachusetts 50.9% +0.22 41 15
208 Lafayette 50.9% +0.23 41 15
209 William & Mary 50.9% +0.23 40 17
210 Tennessee State 50.9% +0.23 40 22
211 Bowling Green 51.0% +0.24 40 25
212 Eastern Kentucky 51.0% +0.25 39 27
213 Georgia Southern 51.0% +0.26 39 22
214 George Washington 51.0% +0.26 39 17
215 North Carolina Central 51.0% +0.27 39 13
216 Villanova 51.0% +0.27 38 25
217 West Virginia 51.0% +0.27 38 29
218 Hofstra 51.1% +0.30 38 23
219 Bradley 51.1% +0.31 37 26
220 Washington 51.2% +0.32 37 26
221 Utah 51.2% +0.32 37 25
222 NC State 51.2% +0.34 36 25
223 South Dakota State 51.2% +0.34 36 22
224 Duke 51.3% +0.35 36 24
225 Troy 51.3% +0.36 36 25
226 Fresno State 51.3% +0.37 35 22
227 North Alabama 51.3% +0.37 35 20
228 UAlbany 51.3% +0.38 35 16
229 New Orleans 51.4% +0.38 34 24
230 Jacksonville 51.4% +0.39 34 22
231 Saint Francis 51.4% +0.40 34 22
232 Fordham 51.4% +0.41 34 14
233 Furman 51.5% +0.42 33 22
234 Indiana State 51.5% +0.42 33 24
235 Binghamton 51.5% +0.45 33 18
236 Lipscomb 51.5% +0.45 32 23
237 Queens University 51.6% +0.46 32 3
238 California Baptist 51.6% +0.48 32 19
239 Pacific 51.6% +0.48 32 17
240 Illinois State 51.6% +0.48 31 24
241 Southern Utah 51.7% +0.49 31 19
242 UNC Wilmington 51.7% +0.49 31 16
243 South Florida 51.7% +0.49 30 21
244 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 51.7% +0.51 30 21
245 Northern Kentucky 51.7% +0.51 30 25
246 Longwood 51.8% +0.53 30 28
247 Miami (OH) 51.8% +0.53 29 22
248 Rice 51.8% +0.54 29 25
249 North Carolina A&T 51.8% +0.55 29 19
250 Eastern Illinois 51.9% +0.56 28 27
251 UNLV 51.9% +0.56 28 25
252 Chattanooga 51.9% +0.58 28 24
253 Southeast Missouri State 51.9% +0.58 28 27
254 Iowa State 52.0% +0.59 27 24
255 Wofford 52.0% +0.60 27 22
256 Utah Tech 52.0% +0.60 27 19
257 Charleston 52.0% +0.61 26 17
258 Campbell 52.0% +0.62 26 25
259 Vanderbilt 52.1% +0.64 26 25
260 La Salle 52.1% +0.64 26 24
261 Tarleton State 52.1% +0.66 25 15
262 Kennesaw State 52.2% +0.67 25 21
263 Incarnate Word 52.2% +0.69 25 19
264 Richmond 52.2% +0.69 24 22
265 Lamar 52.3% +0.71 24 28
266 Kansas City 52.3% +0.71 24 20
267 High Point 52.3% +0.72 24 24
268 NJIT 52.3% +0.73 23 19
269 Stetson 52.4% +0.74 23 24
270 Georgia Tech 52.4% +0.75 23 26
271 Army 52.4% +0.76 22 21
272 Navy 52.4% +0.76 22 18
273 Purdue Fort Wayne 52.5% +0.79 22 23
274 San José State 52.5% +0.79 22 19
275 Georgia 52.5% +0.79 21 25
276 Arizona State 52.5% +0.80 21 25
277 Miami 52.5% +0.80 21 27
278 Holy Cross 52.6% +0.81 20 16
279 St. John's 52.6% +0.81 20 27
280 Towson 52.6% +0.83 20 18
281 SIU Edwardsville 52.6% +0.83 20 25
282 Milwaukee 52.6% +0.83 19 22
283 St. Francis Brooklyn 52.7% +0.86 19 19
284 IU Indianapolis 52.7% +0.87 19 18
285 Samford 52.8% +0.89 18 17
286 The Citadel 52.8% +0.89 18 21
287 Northern Iowa 52.9% +0.93 18 23
288 Wyoming 52.9% +0.94 18 25
289 Presbyterian 52.9% +0.94 17 21
290 California 53.0% +0.94 17 28
291 UC Davis 53.0% +0.95 17 17
292 Middle Tennessee 53.0% +0.95 16 22
293 Kansas State 53.0% +0.96 16 28
294 Fairleigh Dickinson 53.0% +0.97 16 24
295 Penn State 53.0% +0.98 16 25
296 Butler 53.0% +0.98 15 25
297 Southern Illinois 53.1% +0.98 15 25
298 New Mexico 53.1% +1.00 15 20
299 Texas A&M 53.1% +1.01 14 18
300 South Carolina 53.2% +1.01 14 21
301 Lehigh 53.2% +1.03 14 15
302 North Dakota 53.2% +1.03 14 26
303 San Diego 53.3% +1.06 13 14
304 Rider 53.3% +1.08 13 23
305 Boston University 53.4% +1.11 13 18
306 Omaha 53.5% +1.14 12 25
307 Northwestern State 53.5% +1.15 12 28
308 Green Bay 53.5% +1.15 12 25
309 Saint Joseph's 53.6% +1.16 11 20
310 South Carolina Upstate 53.6% +1.19 11 22
311 Central Arkansas 53.9% +1.26 11 23
312 Florida International 53.9% +1.27 11 22
313 Central Connecticut 53.9% +1.27 10 21
314 Central Michigan 54.0% +1.32 10 20
315 Houston Christian 54.1% +1.33 10 24
316 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 54.1% +1.34 9 25
317 Western Carolina 54.1% +1.35 9 25
318 Detroit Mercy 54.1% +1.36 9 22
319 Howard 54.2% +1.39 9 5
320 Idaho 54.3% +1.41 8 22
321 Youngstown State 54.3% +1.43 8 23
322 Cal State Northridge 54.3% +1.44 8 21
323 Western Illinois 54.4% +1.45 7 21
324 Wake Forest 54.5% +1.47 7 21
325 UC San Diego 54.5% +1.49 7 14
326 Robert Morris 54.6% +1.53 7 18
327 Delaware State 54.7% +1.55 6 17
328 Northern Illinois 54.7% +1.56 6 19
329 McNeese 54.7% +1.57 6 18
330 Austin Peay 54.8% +1.60 5 25
331 Tennessee Tech 54.8% +1.61 5 27
332 Cal State Fullerton 54.9% +1.61 5 15
333 Mississippi Valley State 54.9% +1.64 5 24
334 SE Louisiana 55.2% +1.75 4 26
335 Oakland 55.4% +1.81 4 30
336 Bellarmine 55.4% +1.82 4 20
337 South Carolina State 55.4% +1.82 3 18
338 Alcorn State 55.4% +1.82 3 19
339 Boston College 55.5% +1.83 3 20
340 Sacramento State 55.6% +1.87 3 18
341 Denver 55.8% +1.93 2 20
342 Mercyhurst 56.3% +2.11 2 1
343 UT Martin 57.3% +2.49 2 23
344 Evansville 57.4% +2.50 1 25
345 Air Force 57.4% +2.50 1 25
346 Northern Arizona 58.2% +2.81 1 22
347 Eastern Michigan 58.7% +2.95 1 15
348 Portland 58.9% +3.03 0 18
349 Chicago State 60.1% +3.47 0 9