The black queen chants the funeral march, the cracked brass bells will ring / To summon back the fire witch to the court of the crimson king "The Court of the Crimson King" - King Crimson

Does it predict winners?

Predicts home win: AUC 0.62 (team entering with the better value wins 59% of games)

See the game-by-game scatter on the Predictor page →

Team Distribution

Season-to-date value for every team, with a density curve.

min 44.1% max 55.8% mean 49.8% std 2.8% (n=349)

Team Rankings

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# Team Opponents' Opponents' Win Percentage (OOWP) z Pctl GP
1 West Virginia 55.8% +2.18 100 29
2 Kansas 55.7% +2.15 100 30
3 Baylor 55.7% +2.13 99 30
4 Oklahoma 55.6% +2.08 99 27
5 Oklahoma State 55.3% +1.99 99 30
6 Gonzaga 55.0% +1.89 99 32
7 Alabama 55.0% +1.88 98 33
8 Kentucky 54.9% +1.85 98 25
9 Tennessee 54.8% +1.83 98 27
10 Missouri 54.8% +1.80 97 26
11 Penn State 54.7% +1.79 97 25
12 Florida 54.7% +1.76 97 25
13 Oregon 54.6% +1.72 97 29
14 Utah 54.5% +1.70 96 25
15 UCLA 54.4% +1.66 96 32
16 Auburn 54.3% +1.63 96 27
17 Rutgers 54.3% +1.63 95 28
18 Iowa State 54.3% +1.63 95 24
19 Ohio State 54.2% +1.60 95 31
20 Indiana 54.2% +1.59 95 27
21 Michigan State 54.2% +1.59 94 28
22 Northwestern 54.2% +1.59 94 23
23 Michigan 54.2% +1.58 94 28
24 Arizona State 54.1% +1.57 93 25
25 Maryland 54.1% +1.56 93 30
26 Houston 54.1% +1.56 93 31
27 Memphis 54.1% +1.54 93 28
28 Texas 54.1% +1.54 92 28
29 UConn 54.0% +1.53 92 23
30 Syracuse 54.0% +1.51 92 28
31 Arkansas 53.9% +1.50 91 32
32 Villanova 53.9% +1.48 91 25
33 Texas Tech 53.8% +1.46 91 29
34 BYU 53.8% +1.45 91 26
35 Navy 53.8% +1.43 90 18
36 Illinois 53.7% +1.43 90 31
37 Purdue 53.7% +1.42 90 28
38 Clemson 53.6% +1.38 89 24
39 Oregon State 53.6% +1.38 89 32
40 Stanford 53.6% +1.37 89 27
41 North Carolina 53.6% +1.36 89 29
42 Colorado 53.5% +1.35 88 32
43 San Diego State 53.5% +1.33 88 27
44 UCF 53.5% +1.33 88 23
45 Vanderbilt 53.5% +1.32 87 25
46 South Carolina 53.4% +1.32 87 21
47 St. John's 53.3% +1.27 87 27
48 Georgia 53.3% +1.26 86 25
49 Arizona 53.2% +1.25 86 26
50 USC 53.2% +1.24 86 33
51 Wisconsin 53.2% +1.24 86 31
52 Wichita State 53.2% +1.24 85 20
53 Louisville 53.2% +1.23 85 20
54 Virginia Tech 53.2% +1.23 85 22
55 Marquette 53.2% +1.23 84 27
56 Tulsa 53.2% +1.23 84 21
57 Iowa 53.1% +1.20 84 31
58 Providence 53.1% +1.20 84 26
59 Florida State 53.1% +1.19 83 26
60 TCU 53.1% +1.18 83 26
61 American University 53.1% +1.18 83 10
62 Georgetown 53.0% +1.17 82 26
63 Ole Miss 53.0% +1.17 82 28
64 Georgia Tech 53.0% +1.16 82 27
65 Minnesota 53.0% +1.16 82 29
66 Duke 53.0% +1.15 81 25
67 San Diego 53.0% +1.15 81 14
68 Washington 53.0% +1.15 81 26
69 Creighton 52.9% +1.13 80 31
70 Xavier 52.9% +1.13 80 21
71 Notre Dame 52.9% +1.12 80 26
72 Seton Hall 52.9% +1.12 80 27
73 Mississippi State 52.9% +1.12 79 33
74 LSU 52.9% +1.12 79 29
75 Butler 52.9% +1.12 79 25
76 Kansas State 52.9% +1.11 78 28
77 California 52.8% +1.08 78 28
78 Colgate 52.8% +1.08 78 16
79 Boston College 52.7% +1.06 78 20
80 Texas A&M 52.6% +1.02 77 18
81 Virginia 52.6% +1.00 77 26
82 Nebraska 52.4% +0.95 77 26
83 San Francisco 52.4% +0.95 76 25
84 Pacific 52.4% +0.93 76 17
85 Saint Mary's 52.3% +0.92 76 24
86 Pepperdine 52.3% +0.90 76 25
87 Wake Forest 52.3% +0.90 75 21
88 Loyola Marymount 52.3% +0.89 75 22
89 Pittsburgh 52.2% +0.88 75 22
90 SMU 52.2% +0.87 74 17
91 Western Kentucky 52.2% +0.87 74 29
92 Cincinnati 52.2% +0.86 74 23
93 VCU 52.1% +0.85 74 27
94 Duquesne 51.9% +0.75 73 18
95 Temple 51.9% +0.74 73 16
96 Richmond 51.8% +0.73 73 22
97 North Texas 51.8% +0.72 72 27
98 Washington State 51.8% +0.72 72 27
99 Santa Clara 51.7% +0.68 72 19
100 Portland 51.7% +0.67 72 18
101 Rhode Island 51.6% +0.66 71 25
102 Northeastern 51.6% +0.64 71 19
103 DePaul 51.6% +0.64 71 19
104 Saint Joseph's 51.6% +0.63 70 20
105 NC State 51.5% +0.60 70 25
106 Colorado State 51.3% +0.54 70 27
107 San José State 51.2% +0.52 70 19
108 Utah State 51.2% +0.51 69 28
109 South Florida 51.2% +0.50 69 21
110 Lafayette 51.2% +0.50 69 15
111 Miami 51.2% +0.49 68 27
112 Northern Iowa 51.2% +0.49 68 23
113 UT Arlington 51.1% +0.48 68 23
114 Saint Louis 51.1% +0.47 68 21
115 St. Bonaventure 51.0% +0.44 67 21
116 Loyola Chicago 51.0% +0.43 67 29
117 Boise State 51.0% +0.42 67 27
118 Drexel 51.0% +0.41 66 20
119 George Mason 50.9% +0.41 66 22
120 Tulane 50.9% +0.39 66 23
121 Nevada 50.8% +0.37 66 25
122 Texas State 50.8% +0.35 65 23
123 Massachusetts 50.8% +0.35 65 15
124 Coppin State 50.7% +0.33 65 22
125 Davidson 50.7% +0.32 64 21
126 UNLV 50.7% +0.31 64 25
127 Iona 50.6% +0.30 64 18
128 Liberty 50.6% +0.29 64 25
129 Army 50.6% +0.28 63 21
130 Drake 50.6% +0.27 63 29
131 UTEP 50.6% +0.27 63 21
132 Furman 50.6% +0.27 62 22
133 UC Riverside 50.5% +0.27 62 22
134 Fresno State 50.5% +0.26 62 22
135 Mercer 50.5% +0.24 61 26
136 Wofford 50.5% +0.24 61 22
137 Old Dominion 50.4% +0.22 61 22
138 UC Irvine 50.4% +0.21 61 25
139 East Carolina 50.4% +0.20 60 18
140 Wyoming 50.3% +0.18 60 25
141 Dayton 50.3% +0.17 60 24
142 South Dakota State 50.3% +0.16 59 22
143 La Salle 50.2% +0.15 59 24
144 Oral Roberts 50.2% +0.14 59 26
145 UAB 50.2% +0.12 59 27
146 Abilene Christian 50.1% +0.12 58 25
147 Missouri State 50.1% +0.12 58 22
148 Hofstra 50.1% +0.10 58 23
149 UNC Greensboro 50.1% +0.10 57 30
150 Morgan State 50.0% +0.06 57 19
151 Sam Houston 49.9% +0.03 57 24
152 North Carolina A&T 49.8% -0.00 57 20
153 Sacred Heart 49.8% -0.01 56 18
154 New Mexico 49.8% -0.01 56 20
155 Oakland 49.8% -0.02 56 30
156 Wagner 49.7% -0.03 55 20
157 James Madison 49.7% -0.03 55 17
158 Saint Peter's 49.7% -0.04 55 25
159 Marshall 49.7% -0.05 55 22
160 Fairleigh Dickinson 49.6% -0.06 54 24
161 Louisiana Tech 49.6% -0.07 54 31
162 Illinois State 49.6% -0.07 54 24
163 Arkansas State 49.6% -0.08 53 21
164 Eastern Washington 49.6% -0.09 53 23
165 Seattle U 49.5% -0.10 53 19
166 Mount St. Mary's 49.5% -0.11 53 23
167 Central Connecticut 49.5% -0.12 52 21
168 UT Rio Grande Valley 49.4% -0.13 52 15
169 East Tennessee State 49.4% -0.14 52 23
170 Jackson State 49.4% -0.15 51 18
171 Morehead State 49.4% -0.17 51 29
172 Indiana State 49.3% -0.17 51 24
173 UTSA 49.3% -0.17 51 22
174 VMI 49.3% -0.18 50 22
175 Milwaukee 49.3% -0.18 50 22
176 Georgia State 49.3% -0.18 50 20
177 Chattanooga 49.3% -0.19 49 24
178 Texas Southern 49.3% -0.19 49 25
179 Towson 49.3% -0.19 49 18
180 Charleston 49.3% -0.19 49 17
181 Toledo 49.3% -0.19 48 30
182 Niagara 49.3% -0.19 48 20
183 Detroit Mercy 49.3% -0.19 48 22
184 Montana 49.3% -0.19 47 23
185 Fairfield 49.3% -0.20 47 27
186 Bradley 49.3% -0.20 47 26
187 Western Carolina 49.2% -0.21 47 25
188 Buffalo 49.2% -0.22 46 25
189 Florida A&M 49.2% -0.23 46 20
190 Weber State 49.1% -0.24 46 20
191 Coastal Carolina 49.1% -0.26 45 22
192 Prairie View A&M 49.1% -0.28 45 21
193 Marist 49.0% -0.28 45 21
194 Fordham 49.0% -0.28 45 14
195 Merrimack 49.0% -0.29 44 18
196 Long Island University 49.0% -0.30 44 18
197 Bryant 48.9% -0.32 44 21
198 Hartford 48.9% -0.33 43 24
199 UMBC 48.9% -0.33 43 20
200 Rice 48.9% -0.34 43 25
201 Central Arkansas 48.9% -0.34 43 23
202 Troy 48.9% -0.35 42 25
203 Cal State Bakersfield 48.8% -0.36 42 24
204 Holy Cross 48.8% -0.36 42 16
205 Monmouth 48.8% -0.36 41 20
206 Little Rock 48.8% -0.36 41 25
207 Charlotte 48.8% -0.36 41 24
208 Louisiana 48.8% -0.37 41 24
209 Siena 48.8% -0.37 40 17
210 Houston Christian 48.8% -0.38 40 24
211 Northwestern State 48.8% -0.38 40 28
212 Ohio 48.8% -0.39 39 24
213 App State 48.7% -0.39 39 25
214 St. Francis Brooklyn 48.7% -0.40 39 19
215 Valparaiso 48.7% -0.41 39 26
216 Middle Tennessee 48.7% -0.41 38 22
217 Rider 48.7% -0.42 38 23
218 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 48.7% -0.42 38 25
219 Manhattan 48.7% -0.42 37 20
220 Cleveland State 48.6% -0.44 37 27
221 Florida Atlantic 48.6% -0.44 37 19
222 Southern Illinois 48.6% -0.45 36 25
223 Nicholls 48.6% -0.46 36 24
224 Lehigh 48.5% -0.46 36 15
225 Canisius 48.5% -0.47 36 13
226 Delaware State 48.5% -0.48 35 17
227 UC Santa Barbara 48.5% -0.48 35 25
228 Samford 48.5% -0.49 35 17
229 Montana State 48.4% -0.51 34 21
230 North Carolina Central 48.3% -0.54 34 13
231 NJIT 48.3% -0.54 34 19
232 Air Force 48.3% -0.55 34 25
233 Norfolk State 48.3% -0.55 33 24
234 Winthrop 48.3% -0.55 33 25
235 Saint Francis 48.3% -0.55 33 22
236 North Dakota State 48.3% -0.56 32 27
237 Cal State Fullerton 48.2% -0.58 32 15
238 Grand Canyon 48.2% -0.59 32 21
239 South Alabama 48.2% -0.59 32 24
240 Quinnipiac 48.2% -0.59 31 22
241 Youngstown State 48.2% -0.60 31 23
242 Georgia Southern 48.2% -0.60 31 22
243 The Citadel 48.1% -0.61 30 21
244 New Hampshire 48.1% -0.61 30 18
245 William & Mary 48.0% -0.66 30 17
246 Elon 48.0% -0.66 30 18
247 UNC Wilmington 48.0% -0.68 29 16
248 UMass Lowell 47.9% -0.68 29 23
249 Bellarmine 47.9% -0.71 29 20
250 Green Bay 47.8% -0.72 28 25
251 California Baptist 47.8% -0.74 28 19
252 Portland State 47.8% -0.74 28 18
253 UL Monroe 47.8% -0.74 28 26
254 Bowling Green 47.8% -0.75 27 25
255 Belmont 47.8% -0.75 27 30
256 George Washington 47.7% -0.75 27 17
257 Chicago State 47.7% -0.76 26 9
258 Cal Poly 47.7% -0.77 26 23
259 Northern Kentucky 47.7% -0.77 26 25
260 Mississippi Valley State 47.7% -0.78 26 24
261 Florida Gulf Coast 47.7% -0.79 25 16
262 Mercyhurst 47.6% -0.79 25 1
263 Evansville 47.6% -0.79 25 25
264 Delaware 47.6% -0.79 24 14
265 Southern Miss 47.6% -0.80 24 23
266 Gardner-Webb 47.6% -0.81 24 26
267 UAlbany 47.6% -0.82 24 16
268 Southern Utah 47.4% -0.86 23 19
269 Wright State 47.4% -0.87 23 24
270 Radford 47.4% -0.87 23 25
271 UC Davis 47.4% -0.88 22 17
272 Stony Brook 47.3% -0.90 22 22
273 Idaho State 47.3% -0.91 22 19
274 Purdue Fort Wayne 47.3% -0.92 22 23
275 Ball State 47.3% -0.92 21 23
276 Northern Illinois 47.3% -0.93 21 19
277 Stephen F. Austin 47.3% -0.93 21 18
278 Eastern Illinois 47.2% -0.94 20 27
279 Florida International 47.2% -0.95 20 22
280 Hampton 47.2% -0.95 20 25
281 Longwood 47.2% -0.96 20 28
282 McNeese 47.2% -0.96 19 18
283 Eastern Michigan 47.1% -0.97 19 15
284 Tennessee Tech 47.1% -0.98 19 27
285 Kent State 47.1% -0.98 18 22
286 Akron 47.1% -0.98 18 21
287 Cal State Northridge 47.1% -0.98 18 21
288 IU Indianapolis 47.1% -0.99 18 18
289 Vermont 47.0% -1.01 17 15
290 Western Michigan 47.0% -1.02 17 20
291 Idaho 47.0% -1.02 17 22
292 Loyola Maryland 47.0% -1.03 16 17
293 Kansas City 47.0% -1.03 16 20
294 Lamar 46.9% -1.04 16 28
295 UIC 46.9% -1.05 16 22
296 Omaha 46.9% -1.06 15 25
297 Northern Colorado 46.8% -1.08 15 19
298 SE Louisiana 46.8% -1.09 15 26
299 Miami (OH) 46.8% -1.11 14 22
300 Eastern Kentucky 46.8% -1.11 14 27
301 Grambling 46.7% -1.12 14 23
302 New Orleans 46.7% -1.12 14 24
303 North Florida 46.7% -1.14 13 21
304 Sacramento State 46.6% -1.18 13 18
305 Queens University 46.6% -1.18 13 3
306 SIU Edwardsville 46.5% -1.19 12 25
307 Southeast Missouri State 46.5% -1.19 12 27
308 Stetson 46.5% -1.20 12 24
309 Utah Valley 46.5% -1.20 11 20
310 Southern 46.5% -1.22 11 19
311 Alcorn State 46.4% -1.23 11 19
312 Austin Peay 46.4% -1.24 11 25
313 South Dakota 46.4% -1.25 10 24
314 UC San Diego 46.3% -1.27 10 14
315 Long Beach State 46.3% -1.28 10 18
316 Jacksonville 46.2% -1.31 9 22
317 Tarleton State 46.2% -1.33 9 15
318 Northern Arizona 46.1% -1.34 9 22
319 Jacksonville State 46.1% -1.34 9 25
320 Robert Morris 46.1% -1.34 8 18
321 Bucknell 46.1% -1.35 8 12
322 Murray State 46.1% -1.35 8 24
323 North Alabama 46.0% -1.38 7 20
324 Alabama A&M 46.0% -1.39 7 15
325 UT Martin 46.0% -1.40 7 23
326 Howard 46.0% -1.40 7 5
327 South Carolina State 45.9% -1.41 6 18
328 Central Michigan 45.9% -1.42 6 20
329 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 45.9% -1.42 6 21
330 Maine 45.9% -1.42 5 9
331 Utah Tech 45.9% -1.43 5 19
332 Hawai'i 45.8% -1.47 5 19
333 Lipscomb 45.7% -1.50 5 23
334 UNC Asheville 45.7% -1.51 4 20
335 New Mexico State 45.6% -1.52 4 17
336 Binghamton 45.6% -1.52 4 18
337 South Carolina Upstate 45.6% -1.54 3 22
338 Tennessee State 45.5% -1.58 3 22
339 Presbyterian 45.4% -1.60 3 21
340 Western Illinois 45.4% -1.60 3 21
341 Kennesaw State 45.4% -1.60 2 21
342 Boston University 45.4% -1.60 2 18
343 North Dakota 45.3% -1.63 2 26
344 Alabama State 45.3% -1.63 1 18
345 High Point 45.2% -1.67 1 24
346 Campbell 45.0% -1.77 1 25
347 Incarnate Word 44.8% -1.81 1 19
348 Denver 44.5% -1.92 0 20
349 Charleston Southern 44.1% -2.08 0 20