I love it when you call me Big Poppa "Big Poppa" - Notorious B.I.G.

Team Distribution

Season-to-date value for every team, with a density curve.

min 77.2 max 122.0 mean 100.9 std 6.6 (n=349)

By Conference

A dot per team, best conference average at the top. The tick marks each conference's mean.

Does it predict winners?

Predicts home win: AUC 0.70 (team entering with the better value wins 64% of games)

See the game-by-game scatter on the Predictor page →

Team Rankings

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# Team Offensive Efficiency z Pctl GP
1 Gonzaga 122.0 +3.22 100 32
2 Baylor 119.3 +2.80 100 30
3 Iowa 117.7 +2.57 99 31
4 Colgate 116.6 +2.40 99 16
5 Toledo 114.2 +2.03 99 30
6 Houston 113.9 +1.98 99 31
7 Villanova 113.7 +1.95 98 25
8 Wright State 112.9 +1.83 98 24
9 Liberty 112.7 +1.80 98 25
10 Ohio State 112.5 +1.78 97 31
11 Michigan 112.5 +1.77 97 28
12 Belmont 112.4 +1.75 97 30
13 Detroit Mercy 112.2 +1.73 97 22
14 Illinois 112.2 +1.72 96 31
15 LSU 112.2 +1.72 96 29
16 Drake 112.2 +1.72 96 29
17 Virginia 111.5 +1.62 95 25
18 Southern Utah 111.4 +1.61 95 19
19 South Dakota State 110.9 +1.53 95 22
20 Furman 110.9 +1.52 95 22
21 Weber State 110.7 +1.50 94 20
22 Davidson 110.6 +1.48 94 21
23 Colorado 110.4 +1.45 94 32
24 Ohio 110.4 +1.44 93 24
25 Loyola Chicago 109.9 +1.37 93 29
26 Oregon 109.8 +1.36 93 28
27 Bellarmine 109.8 +1.36 93 20
28 Arizona 109.6 +1.32 92 26
29 UC Santa Barbara 109.5 +1.31 92 25
30 UCLA 109.4 +1.30 92 32
31 San Diego State 109.4 +1.30 91 27
32 Winthrop 109.3 +1.28 91 25
33 Eastern Washington 109.2 +1.26 91 23
34 USC 109.1 +1.26 91 33
35 Florida State 109.0 +1.24 90 25
36 Saint Louis 109.0 +1.24 90 21
37 Buffalo 108.8 +1.20 90 25
38 Wyoming 108.7 +1.19 89 25
39 Oral Roberts 108.7 +1.19 89 26
40 Duke 108.7 +1.19 89 24
41 Creighton 108.5 +1.16 89 31
42 Akron 108.5 +1.16 88 21
43 West Virginia 108.5 +1.16 88 29
44 Marshall 108.5 +1.16 88 22
45 BYU 108.5 +1.16 87 26
46 South Dakota 108.4 +1.14 87 24
47 Syracuse 108.2 +1.11 87 28
48 Georgia Tech 108.1 +1.10 86 26
49 Notre Dame 108.1 +1.09 86 26
50 Vermont 107.9 +1.07 86 15
51 Texas Tech 107.9 +1.07 86 29
52 UConn 107.5 +1.01 85 23
53 Arkansas 107.5 +1.01 85 32
54 Boise State 107.4 +0.99 85 27
55 VMI 107.2 +0.97 84 22
56 St. Bonaventure 107.1 +0.94 84 21
57 Alabama 106.9 +0.91 84 33
58 Grand Canyon 106.9 +0.91 84 21
59 Kent State 106.9 +0.91 83 22
60 Georgia State 106.8 +0.90 83 20
61 Lafayette 106.7 +0.89 83 15
62 California Baptist 106.7 +0.89 82 19
63 Stephen F. Austin 106.7 +0.89 82 18
64 Mercer 106.7 +0.88 82 26
65 Virginia Tech 106.5 +0.86 82 22
66 Wofford 106.5 +0.86 81 22
67 Drexel 106.5 +0.85 81 20
68 Missouri State 106.4 +0.83 81 22
69 NC State 106.3 +0.83 80 25
70 Oklahoma 106.3 +0.83 80 27
71 Northern Kentucky 106.3 +0.83 80 25
72 Richmond 106.3 +0.82 80 22
73 Xavier 106.3 +0.82 79 21
74 Purdue 106.2 +0.81 79 28
75 Murray State 106.2 +0.80 79 24
76 Bryant 106.1 +0.80 78 21
77 Bowling Green 106.1 +0.80 78 25
78 Colorado State 105.9 +0.77 78 27
79 Youngstown State 105.8 +0.75 78 23
80 Hofstra 105.8 +0.75 77 23
81 Texas 105.8 +0.75 77 27
82 Jacksonville State 105.8 +0.75 77 25
83 Miami (OH) 105.8 +0.74 76 22
84 Gardner-Webb 105.7 +0.73 76 26
85 St. John's 105.5 +0.71 76 27
86 North Texas 105.4 +0.70 76 27
87 Wisconsin 105.4 +0.69 75 31
88 Florida 105.3 +0.67 75 25
89 New Mexico State 105.3 +0.67 75 17
90 James Madison 105.3 +0.67 74 17
91 Navy 105.1 +0.64 74 18
92 St. Francis Brooklyn 105.0 +0.63 74 19
93 SMU 104.9 +0.62 74 17
94 Utah 104.9 +0.62 73 25
95 Tennessee 104.8 +0.60 73 27
96 Austin Peay 104.6 +0.57 73 25
97 The Citadel 104.5 +0.55 72 21
98 Western Kentucky 104.5 +0.55 72 29
99 Wagner 104.5 +0.55 72 20
100 Eastern Kentucky 104.4 +0.54 72 27
101 North Carolina 104.4 +0.53 71 29
102 Purdue Fort Wayne 104.4 +0.53 71 23
103 Auburn 104.3 +0.52 71 27
104 Oregon State 104.3 +0.52 70 32
105 Campbell 104.3 +0.51 70 25
106 Nevada 104.2 +0.51 70 25
107 Kansas 104.2 +0.50 70 29
108 Abilene Christian 104.1 +0.50 69 25
109 Sacramento State 104.1 +0.49 69 18
110 Charleston 104.1 +0.49 69 17
111 Cal State Fullerton 104.1 +0.48 68 15
112 UNC Wilmington 104.0 +0.48 68 16
113 North Dakota State 104.0 +0.47 68 27
114 Maryland 104.0 +0.47 68 30
115 Pittsburgh 103.9 +0.47 67 22
116 Penn State 103.9 +0.45 67 25
117 UC Riverside 103.8 +0.44 67 22
118 South Alabama 103.7 +0.44 66 24
119 Chattanooga 103.7 +0.43 66 24
120 Fairleigh Dickinson 103.7 +0.42 66 24
121 Nicholls 103.6 +0.42 66 24
122 Seton Hall 103.6 +0.41 65 27
123 Utah State 103.6 +0.41 65 28
124 Milwaukee 103.5 +0.40 65 22
125 UNC Greensboro 103.5 +0.40 64 30
126 Vanderbilt 103.4 +0.38 64 25
127 UAB 103.4 +0.38 64 27
128 Cal State Bakersfield 103.3 +0.37 64 24
129 Florida Atlantic 103.3 +0.37 63 19
130 Pepperdine 103.3 +0.37 63 25
131 Massachusetts 103.3 +0.36 63 15
132 Morgan State 103.2 +0.36 62 19
133 Missouri 103.2 +0.35 62 26
134 Dayton 103.1 +0.34 62 24
135 UTSA 103.1 +0.33 61 22
136 Oklahoma State 103.0 +0.32 61 30
137 Coastal Carolina 102.9 +0.31 61 22
138 Wichita State 102.9 +0.31 61 20
139 San Francisco 102.9 +0.31 60 25
140 Green Bay 102.8 +0.29 60 25
141 Bucknell 102.8 +0.29 60 12
142 Cleveland State 102.7 +0.28 59 27
143 Ball State 102.7 +0.28 59 23
144 Siena 102.7 +0.27 59 17
145 Louisville 102.6 +0.26 59 20
146 UNC Asheville 102.5 +0.24 58 20
147 Evansville 102.4 +0.23 58 25
148 Louisiana Tech 102.4 +0.23 58 31
149 Boston University 102.2 +0.21 57 18
150 Rice 102.2 +0.20 57 25
151 Oakland 102.2 +0.20 57 30
152 Lipscomb 101.9 +0.16 57 23
153 Iona 101.8 +0.14 56 18
154 VCU 101.8 +0.14 56 26
155 Hawai'i 101.8 +0.14 56 19
156 Loyola Marymount 101.7 +0.13 55 22
157 Georgia 101.6 +0.11 55 25
158 Louisiana 101.6 +0.11 55 24
159 Ole Miss 101.5 +0.10 55 28
160 Arizona State 101.5 +0.09 54 25
161 Providence 101.5 +0.09 54 26
162 Norfolk State 101.5 +0.09 54 23
163 Rutgers 101.5 +0.09 53 28
164 Texas State 101.4 +0.08 53 23
165 Montana State 101.4 +0.07 53 21
166 Utah Valley 101.3 +0.07 53 20
167 UMBC 101.3 +0.07 52 20
168 East Tennessee State 101.3 +0.06 52 23
169 Sacred Heart 101.2 +0.05 52 18
170 New Orleans 101.2 +0.05 51 24
171 Marquette 101.2 +0.05 51 27
172 Sam Houston 101.2 +0.04 51 24
173 Robert Morris 101.1 +0.04 51 18
174 Morehead State 101.1 +0.04 50 29
175 Loyola Maryland 101.1 +0.03 50 17
176 Prairie View A&M 101.0 +0.03 50 21
177 Georgetown 101.0 +0.02 49 26
178 Mississippi State 101.0 +0.02 49 33
179 Stetson 100.7 -0.02 49 24
180 UNLV 100.7 -0.02 49 25
181 Minnesota 100.6 -0.05 48 29
182 Memphis 100.5 -0.05 48 28
183 Bradley 100.5 -0.06 48 26
184 North Florida 100.5 -0.06 47 21
185 Holy Cross 100.5 -0.06 47 16
186 Radford 100.5 -0.07 47 25
187 George Mason 100.4 -0.07 47 22
188 Western Carolina 100.3 -0.09 46 25
189 Michigan State 100.3 -0.09 46 28
190 Monmouth 100.2 -0.11 46 20
191 Arkansas State 100.1 -0.12 45 21
192 Army 100.1 -0.12 45 21
193 Rhode Island 99.9 -0.14 45 25
194 Cal State Northridge 99.9 -0.15 45 21
195 Indiana State 99.9 -0.15 44 24
196 Longwood 99.9 -0.15 44 28
197 McNeese 99.9 -0.16 44 18
198 Indiana 99.8 -0.16 43 27
199 Little Rock 99.8 -0.17 43 25
200 UTEP 99.7 -0.18 43 21
201 Kentucky 99.7 -0.18 43 25
202 Clemson 99.6 -0.19 42 24
203 Central Michigan 99.5 -0.22 42 20
204 Towson 99.4 -0.22 42 18
205 App State 99.4 -0.23 41 25
206 UAlbany 99.4 -0.23 41 16
207 Old Dominion 99.3 -0.24 41 22
208 Texas Southern 99.2 -0.26 41 25
209 Delaware 99.2 -0.26 40 14
210 Northern Iowa 99.2 -0.26 40 23
211 UC Irvine 99.1 -0.27 40 25
212 Howard 99.1 -0.27 39 5
213 Boston College 99.1 -0.27 39 20
214 Long Island University 99.0 -0.28 39 18
215 Mount St. Mary's 99.0 -0.29 39 23
216 UMass Lowell 98.9 -0.30 38 23
217 Seattle U 98.9 -0.30 38 19
218 Queens University 98.8 -0.32 38 3
219 Stanford 98.7 -0.34 37 27
220 TCU 98.6 -0.35 37 26
221 UC San Diego 98.5 -0.36 37 14
222 Northern Colorado 98.5 -0.36 36 19
223 UCF 98.5 -0.37 36 23
224 Canisius 98.4 -0.38 36 13
225 Niagara 98.4 -0.38 36 20
226 Western Illinois 98.3 -0.39 35 21
227 North Dakota 98.3 -0.39 35 26
228 High Point 98.3 -0.40 35 24
229 Saint Mary's 98.3 -0.40 34 24
230 Montana 98.2 -0.41 34 23
231 Northwestern 98.2 -0.41 34 23
232 Hampton 98.2 -0.42 34 25
233 UC Davis 98.1 -0.42 33 17
234 California 98.1 -0.42 33 28
235 IU Indianapolis 98.1 -0.43 33 18
236 Northeastern 98.0 -0.44 32 19
237 Elon 98.0 -0.44 32 18
238 Rider 98.0 -0.44 32 23
239 Hartford 98.0 -0.44 32 24
240 Fresno State 97.9 -0.46 31 22
241 Duquesne 97.9 -0.46 31 18
242 UT Arlington 97.9 -0.46 31 23
243 George Washington 97.8 -0.47 30 17
244 Eastern Illinois 97.8 -0.48 30 27
245 Southeast Missouri State 97.7 -0.48 30 27
246 Wake Forest 97.6 -0.50 30 21
247 American University 97.6 -0.50 29 10
248 Saint Francis 97.6 -0.50 29 22
249 Washington State 97.5 -0.51 29 27
250 Pacific 97.5 -0.51 28 17
251 Kansas City 97.3 -0.54 28 20
252 Texas A&M 97.3 -0.54 28 18
253 Southern Illinois 97.2 -0.56 28 25
254 Binghamton 97.2 -0.56 27 18
255 Miami 97.2 -0.56 27 27
256 Tulsa 97.2 -0.57 27 21
257 Northwestern State 97.1 -0.58 26 28
258 Merrimack 97.0 -0.60 26 18
259 La Salle 96.9 -0.60 26 24
260 Illinois State 96.9 -0.61 26 24
261 Incarnate Word 96.9 -0.61 25 19
262 New Hampshire 96.9 -0.61 25 18
263 Florida International 96.8 -0.63 25 22
264 Cincinnati 96.7 -0.64 24 23
265 Butler 96.6 -0.65 24 25
266 Tarleton State 96.6 -0.66 24 15
267 Long Beach State 96.5 -0.66 24 18
268 North Alabama 96.5 -0.66 23 20
269 Santa Clara 96.3 -0.70 23 19
270 Temple 96.3 -0.70 23 16
271 Eastern Michigan 96.3 -0.70 22 15
272 UIC 96.2 -0.71 22 22
273 Charlotte 96.2 -0.71 22 24
274 South Carolina 96.2 -0.72 22 21
275 NJIT 96.0 -0.74 21 19
276 Jacksonville 95.8 -0.77 21 22
277 Northern Arizona 95.8 -0.77 21 22
278 Saint Joseph's 95.7 -0.79 20 20
279 Georgia Southern 95.6 -0.80 20 22
280 Denver 95.5 -0.81 20 20
281 South Carolina Upstate 95.5 -0.82 20 22
282 William & Mary 95.4 -0.83 19 17
283 Washington 95.4 -0.83 19 26
284 Stony Brook 95.4 -0.84 19 22
285 Central Connecticut 95.2 -0.87 18 21
286 Central Arkansas 95.0 -0.89 18 23
287 Lehigh 95.0 -0.90 18 15
288 Southern 94.9 -0.91 18 19
289 Florida Gulf Coast 94.9 -0.91 17 16
290 Tennessee Tech 94.7 -0.94 17 27
291 East Carolina 94.7 -0.94 17 18
292 Samford 94.6 -0.95 16 17
293 North Carolina A&T 94.5 -0.98 16 19
294 Presbyterian 94.5 -0.98 16 21
295 Tulane 94.4 -0.99 16 23
296 UL Monroe 94.3 -1.01 15 26
297 South Florida 94.3 -1.01 15 21
298 SIU Edwardsville 94.0 -1.05 15 25
299 SE Louisiana 93.9 -1.06 14 26
300 Fairfield 93.9 -1.07 14 27
301 Houston Christian 93.7 -1.09 14 24
302 Idaho State 93.7 -1.10 14 19
303 Portland State 93.6 -1.10 13 18
304 Nebraska 93.6 -1.11 13 26
305 Lamar 93.5 -1.12 13 28
306 Valparaiso 93.4 -1.13 12 26
307 Marist 93.4 -1.14 12 21
308 North Carolina Central 93.4 -1.14 12 13
309 Grambling 93.3 -1.15 11 23
310 Saint Peter's 93.1 -1.19 11 25
311 Western Michigan 93.1 -1.19 11 20
312 Alcorn State 92.9 -1.21 11 19
313 Florida A&M 92.9 -1.22 10 20
314 Kansas State 92.9 -1.22 10 28
315 Iowa State 92.8 -1.24 10 24
316 Omaha 92.8 -1.24 9 25
317 UT Martin 92.6 -1.26 9 23
318 DePaul 92.3 -1.31 9 19
319 Air Force 92.2 -1.33 9 25
320 Coppin State 92.1 -1.34 8 22
321 Portland 92.1 -1.34 8 18
322 Tennessee State 92.1 -1.34 8 22
323 Quinnipiac 92.1 -1.34 7 22
324 Utah Tech 91.8 -1.38 7 19
325 Southern Miss 91.8 -1.39 7 23
326 Northern Illinois 91.7 -1.39 7 19
327 Jackson State 91.7 -1.40 6 18
328 UT Rio Grande Valley 91.7 -1.41 6 15
329 Troy 91.0 -1.51 6 25
330 Manhattan 90.9 -1.52 5 20
331 Charleston Southern 90.7 -1.55 5 20
332 San Diego 90.6 -1.57 5 14
333 Delaware State 90.4 -1.60 5 17
334 Kennesaw State 89.6 -1.72 4 21
335 New Mexico 89.5 -1.73 4 20
336 Idaho 89.5 -1.73 4 22
337 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 89.4 -1.76 3 21
338 Alabama A&M 89.0 -1.81 3 15
339 San José State 89.0 -1.81 3 19
340 Alabama State 88.9 -1.82 3 18
341 Mercyhurst 88.7 -1.86 2 1
342 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 88.3 -1.91 2 25
343 Middle Tennessee 88.2 -1.93 2 22
344 Cal Poly 87.9 -1.98 1 23
345 South Carolina State 84.8 -2.45 1 18
346 Maine 81.5 -2.95 1 9
347 Fordham 80.4 -3.12 1 14
348 Chicago State 77.6 -3.55 0 9
349 Mississippi Valley State 77.2 -3.61 0 24