Come on down and meet your maker. Come on down and take a stand. "The Stand" - The Alarm

Does it predict winners?

Predicts home win: AUC 0.56 (team entering with the better value wins 54% of games)

See the game-by-game scatter on the Predictor page →

Team Distribution

Season-to-date value for every team, with a density curve.

min 56.9% max 84.6% mean 70.9% std 4.3% (n=349)

Team Rankings

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# Team Free Throw Percentage z Pctl GP
1 Mercyhurst 84.6% +3.19 100 1
2 Oral Roberts 82.2% +2.63 100 26
3 Colorado 81.9% +2.55 99 32
4 Virginia 81.6% +2.48 99 25
5 Lafayette 80.4% +2.21 99 15
6 Detroit Mercy 80.4% +2.20 99 22
7 Eastern Washington 80.3% +2.19 98 23
8 Colorado State 79.2% +1.92 98 27
9 Utah 79.2% +1.92 98 25
10 Portland 79.1% +1.91 97 18
11 Chattanooga 79.0% +1.87 97 24
12 Montana 78.9% +1.85 97 23
13 Western Kentucky 78.8% +1.83 97 29
14 Kent State 78.4% +1.74 96 22
15 South Dakota 78.4% +1.74 96 24
16 Iowa State 78.3% +1.73 96 24
17 Syracuse 78.2% +1.68 95 28
18 Vermont 78.0% +1.65 95 15
19 Toledo 78.0% +1.65 95 30
20 Drexel 78.0% +1.65 95 20
21 Weber State 77.9% +1.63 94 20
22 Pepperdine 77.8% +1.60 94 25
23 Liberty 77.7% +1.59 94 25
24 Miami (OH) 77.5% +1.54 93 22
25 UC Davis 77.5% +1.53 93 17
26 UNC Wilmington 77.3% +1.48 93 16
27 Notre Dame 77.3% +1.48 93 26
28 Michigan 76.9% +1.39 92 28
29 Clemson 76.9% +1.38 92 24
30 Wisconsin 76.8% +1.37 92 31
31 VMI 76.5% +1.30 91 22
32 Bellarmine 76.5% +1.29 91 20
33 Oregon State 76.4% +1.28 91 32
34 UC Santa Barbara 76.3% +1.26 91 25
35 Villanova 76.3% +1.24 90 25
36 Nevada 76.3% +1.24 90 25
37 Southern Utah 76.2% +1.24 90 19
38 Bucknell 76.2% +1.23 89 12
39 VCU 76.1% +1.19 89 26
40 North Dakota State 76.0% +1.19 89 27
41 Bryant 76.0% +1.17 89 21
42 Austin Peay 75.7% +1.11 88 25
43 North Alabama 75.7% +1.11 88 20
44 UTSA 75.7% +1.11 88 22
45 UC Irvine 75.6% +1.10 87 25
46 UTEP 75.6% +1.09 87 21
47 Ohio State 75.6% +1.09 87 31
48 Akron 75.4% +1.05 86 21
49 Georgetown 75.3% +1.01 86 26
50 Florida 75.3% +1.01 86 25
51 Elon 75.1% +0.97 86 18
52 Ball State 75.1% +0.96 85 23
53 Boston University 75.0% +0.95 85 18
54 LSU 75.0% +0.95 85 29
55 Missouri State 75.0% +0.95 84 22
56 St. John's 74.9% +0.94 84 27
57 Green Bay 74.9% +0.93 84 25
58 William & Mary 74.9% +0.93 84 17
59 Morgan State 74.8% +0.91 83 19
60 Montana State 74.6% +0.86 83 21
61 Tulane 74.6% +0.86 83 23
62 Tennessee 74.6% +0.85 82 27
63 North Texas 74.6% +0.84 82 27
64 Oklahoma 74.5% +0.83 82 27
65 Iona 74.4% +0.81 82 18
66 Tarleton State 74.2% +0.77 81 15
67 Boise State 74.2% +0.76 81 27
68 Northeastern 74.2% +0.75 81 19
69 Eastern Michigan 74.2% +0.75 80 15
70 Sacred Heart 74.1% +0.73 80 18
71 Minnesota 74.1% +0.73 80 29
72 Florida State 74.1% +0.73 80 25
73 Arkansas 74.0% +0.72 79 32
74 New Orleans 73.9% +0.70 79 24
75 Penn State 73.8% +0.67 79 25
76 Belmont 73.8% +0.67 78 30
77 St. Bonaventure 73.8% +0.66 78 21
78 Charlotte 73.7% +0.64 78 24
79 Cal State Fullerton 73.7% +0.63 78 15
80 Vanderbilt 73.6% +0.62 77 25
81 Indiana State 73.6% +0.62 77 24
82 Saint Mary's 73.6% +0.62 77 24
83 Bowling Green 73.5% +0.61 76 25
84 Utah Tech 73.5% +0.60 76 19
85 Marquette 73.5% +0.59 76 27
86 St. Francis Brooklyn 73.5% +0.59 76 19
87 Coastal Carolina 73.4% +0.58 75 22
88 Richmond 73.4% +0.58 75 22
89 Lamar 73.4% +0.57 75 28
90 Massachusetts 73.3% +0.56 74 15
91 California Baptist 73.3% +0.55 74 19
92 Rider 73.3% +0.55 74 23
93 Houston 73.3% +0.54 74 31
94 Delaware State 73.2% +0.52 73 17
95 Seton Hall 73.2% +0.52 73 27
96 Milwaukee 73.2% +0.52 73 22
97 Houston Christian 73.1% +0.51 72 24
98 Gonzaga 73.1% +0.50 72 32
99 BYU 73.0% +0.47 72 26
100 Rice 72.9% +0.47 72 25
101 UT Arlington 72.9% +0.47 71 23
102 Bradley 72.9% +0.47 71 26
103 East Carolina 72.9% +0.47 71 18
104 Kentucky 72.9% +0.46 70 25
105 UCF 72.9% +0.45 70 23
106 Arizona State 72.8% +0.44 70 25
107 SMU 72.8% +0.43 70 17
108 Seattle U 72.8% +0.43 69 19
109 Loyola Chicago 72.7% +0.42 69 29
110 Towson 72.7% +0.42 69 18
111 Arizona 72.7% +0.42 68 26
112 Michigan State 72.7% +0.40 68 28
113 Alcorn State 72.6% +0.39 68 19
114 Cal State Northridge 72.6% +0.39 68 21
115 Loyola Marymount 72.6% +0.38 67 22
116 Hawai'i 72.6% +0.38 67 19
117 Texas A&M 72.6% +0.38 67 18
118 Georgia Tech 72.6% +0.38 66 26
119 Western Carolina 72.6% +0.38 66 25
120 Idaho 72.5% +0.37 66 22
121 Youngstown State 72.5% +0.37 66 23
122 Saint Joseph's 72.5% +0.37 65 20
123 Hampton 72.5% +0.37 65 25
124 South Carolina Upstate 72.5% +0.37 65 22
125 Marshall 72.5% +0.36 64 22
126 Wright State 72.4% +0.35 64 24
127 New Mexico State 72.4% +0.35 64 17
128 UAlbany 72.4% +0.35 64 16
129 Arkansas State 72.4% +0.33 63 21
130 Colgate 72.3% +0.33 63 16
131 App State 72.3% +0.33 63 25
132 Furman 72.3% +0.32 62 22
133 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 72.3% +0.31 62 25
134 UConn 72.2% +0.30 62 23
135 North Florida 72.2% +0.30 61 21
136 South Alabama 72.2% +0.30 61 24
137 Wake Forest 72.2% +0.29 61 21
138 Mercer 72.1% +0.28 61 26
139 Denver 72.1% +0.27 60 20
140 Cal Poly 72.0% +0.25 60 23
141 West Virginia 71.9% +0.23 60 29
142 Wyoming 71.9% +0.23 59 25
143 Texas State 71.9% +0.23 59 23
144 Valparaiso 71.8% +0.21 59 26
145 Evansville 71.8% +0.21 59 25
146 Howard 71.8% +0.21 58 5
147 Wagner 71.8% +0.21 58 20
148 Kansas 71.8% +0.20 58 29
149 IU Indianapolis 71.8% +0.20 57 18
150 Louisville 71.7% +0.19 57 20
151 Cal State Bakersfield 71.7% +0.18 57 24
152 San Francisco 71.7% +0.18 57 25
153 Delaware 71.7% +0.17 56 14
154 Western Illinois 71.7% +0.17 56 21
155 Stanford 71.7% +0.17 56 27
156 South Dakota State 71.6% +0.17 55 22
157 Temple 71.6% +0.16 55 16
158 Hartford 71.6% +0.15 55 24
159 Hofstra 71.6% +0.15 55 23
160 Northwestern 71.5% +0.14 54 23
161 UCLA 71.5% +0.13 54 32
162 San Diego State 71.5% +0.13 54 27
163 Iowa 71.5% +0.12 53 31
164 Saint Francis 71.4% +0.10 53 22
165 Utah State 71.3% +0.09 53 28
166 Dayton 71.3% +0.08 53 24
167 Wofford 71.3% +0.08 52 22
168 Central Arkansas 71.3% +0.08 52 23
169 Fairleigh Dickinson 71.2% +0.07 52 24
170 Charleston Southern 71.2% +0.07 51 20
171 UT Martin 71.2% +0.06 51 23
172 UNLV 71.2% +0.06 51 25
173 Purdue 71.1% +0.05 51 28
174 UMBC 71.1% +0.05 50 20
175 Drake 71.1% +0.04 50 29
176 Oregon 71.1% +0.04 50 28
177 The Citadel 71.1% +0.04 49 21
178 Little Rock 71.0% +0.02 49 25
179 McNeese 71.0% +0.02 49 18
180 Oklahoma State 71.0% +0.02 49 30
181 Texas 71.0% +0.02 48 27
182 Texas Tech 71.0% +0.01 48 29
183 Washington State 71.0% +0.01 48 27
184 Canisius 71.0% +0.01 47 13
185 Navy 70.9% +0.00 47 18
186 Sam Houston 70.8% -0.02 47 24
187 Ohio 70.8% -0.02 47 24
188 Baylor 70.8% -0.03 46 30
189 Auburn 70.8% -0.03 46 27
190 Niagara 70.8% -0.03 46 20
191 Alabama 70.8% -0.04 45 33
192 Norfolk State 70.8% -0.04 45 23
193 Monmouth 70.7% -0.05 45 20
194 Old Dominion 70.7% -0.06 45 22
195 Oakland 70.6% -0.07 44 30
196 UC Riverside 70.6% -0.08 44 22
197 Washington 70.5% -0.09 44 26
198 Texas Southern 70.5% -0.09 43 25
199 Northern Kentucky 70.5% -0.10 43 25
200 American University 70.5% -0.11 43 10
201 California 70.5% -0.11 43 28
202 Saint Louis 70.4% -0.13 42 21
203 Troy 70.4% -0.13 42 25
204 Eastern Kentucky 70.3% -0.14 42 27
205 Charleston 70.3% -0.14 41 17
206 UL Monroe 70.3% -0.15 41 26
207 Stetson 70.3% -0.15 41 24
208 UAB 70.2% -0.17 41 27
209 NC State 70.2% -0.17 40 25
210 Central Connecticut 70.2% -0.17 40 21
211 Boston College 70.2% -0.18 40 20
212 Ole Miss 70.2% -0.18 39 28
213 North Carolina Central 70.2% -0.18 39 13
214 Lehigh 70.1% -0.19 39 15
215 Louisiana 70.1% -0.19 39 24
216 Missouri 70.1% -0.20 38 26
217 Miami 70.0% -0.22 38 27
218 Providence 70.0% -0.22 38 26
219 Incarnate Word 69.9% -0.23 37 19
220 George Washington 69.9% -0.25 37 17
221 Chicago State 69.8% -0.25 37 9
222 Maryland 69.8% -0.25 36 30
223 Virginia Tech 69.8% -0.26 36 22
224 North Dakota 69.8% -0.27 36 26
225 East Tennessee State 69.8% -0.27 36 23
226 Holy Cross 69.8% -0.27 35 16
227 Saint Peter's 69.8% -0.27 35 25
228 Fairfield 69.6% -0.32 35 27
229 Abilene Christian 69.5% -0.34 34 25
230 Xavier 69.4% -0.36 34 21
231 Idaho State 69.3% -0.37 34 19
232 Longwood 69.3% -0.38 34 28
233 Air Force 69.3% -0.39 33 25
234 NJIT 69.1% -0.43 33 19
235 Duke 69.1% -0.43 33 24
236 Grand Canyon 69.1% -0.44 32 21
237 Gardner-Webb 69.0% -0.44 32 26
238 Illinois 69.0% -0.45 32 31
239 Tulsa 69.0% -0.45 32 21
240 Southern Miss 69.0% -0.46 31 23
241 Purdue Fort Wayne 68.9% -0.46 31 23
242 Georgia State 68.9% -0.47 31 20
243 Wichita State 68.9% -0.47 30 20
244 Lipscomb 68.9% -0.48 30 23
245 Radford 68.9% -0.48 30 25
246 Omaha 68.8% -0.49 30 25
247 Quinnipiac 68.8% -0.50 29 22
248 Winthrop 68.8% -0.50 29 25
249 Louisiana Tech 68.8% -0.51 29 31
250 Georgia 68.7% -0.52 28 25
251 High Point 68.7% -0.53 28 24
252 Jacksonville State 68.6% -0.54 28 25
253 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 68.6% -0.54 28 21
254 Presbyterian 68.5% -0.56 27 21
255 SIU Edwardsville 68.4% -0.59 27 25
256 Marist 68.4% -0.59 27 21
257 UNC Greensboro 68.3% -0.61 26 30
258 Davidson 68.2% -0.64 26 21
259 Northern Colorado 68.2% -0.65 26 19
260 Long Beach State 68.1% -0.66 26 18
261 Morehead State 68.1% -0.67 25 29
262 Jackson State 68.0% -0.68 25 18
263 Santa Clara 68.0% -0.68 25 19
264 Stephen F. Austin 68.0% -0.69 24 18
265 Stony Brook 68.0% -0.69 24 22
266 Campbell 67.9% -0.70 24 25
267 Northern Iowa 67.9% -0.71 24 23
268 Tennessee State 67.9% -0.71 23 22
269 Central Michigan 67.8% -0.73 23 20
270 Samford 67.8% -0.73 23 17
271 Sacramento State 67.8% -0.73 22 18
272 DePaul 67.8% -0.74 22 19
273 SE Louisiana 67.8% -0.74 22 26
274 New Hampshire 67.7% -0.74 22 18
275 Tennessee Tech 67.6% -0.78 21 27
276 Murray State 67.5% -0.79 21 24
277 Florida International 67.5% -0.80 21 22
278 Northwestern State 67.5% -0.80 20 28
279 La Salle 67.5% -0.81 20 24
280 Middle Tennessee 67.4% -0.82 20 22
281 Portland State 67.4% -0.82 20 18
282 Binghamton 67.2% -0.86 19 18
283 Southern 67.2% -0.87 19 19
284 TCU 67.2% -0.87 19 26
285 James Madison 67.2% -0.88 18 17
286 Buffalo 67.1% -0.88 18 25
287 Kansas City 67.1% -0.89 18 20
288 Cleveland State 67.1% -0.90 18 27
289 Southeast Missouri State 67.1% -0.90 17 27
290 Mount St. Mary's 67.0% -0.91 17 23
291 Fordham 67.0% -0.91 17 14
292 Nicholls 67.0% -0.92 16 24
293 Jacksonville 66.9% -0.94 16 22
294 North Carolina A&T 66.9% -0.94 16 19
295 Fresno State 66.9% -0.94 16 22
296 Rhode Island 66.8% -0.95 15 25
297 North Carolina 66.8% -0.95 15 29
298 Grambling 66.7% -0.99 15 23
299 Long Island University 66.7% -0.99 14 18
300 Manhattan 66.6% -1.01 14 20
301 Pacific 66.5% -1.02 14 17
302 Indiana 66.5% -1.04 14 27
303 Kansas State 66.4% -1.05 13 28
304 Pittsburgh 66.4% -1.06 13 22
305 Merrimack 66.3% -1.07 13 18
306 Florida Atlantic 66.3% -1.08 12 19
307 Northern Arizona 66.2% -1.10 12 22
308 UMass Lowell 66.2% -1.11 12 23
309 Southern Illinois 66.1% -1.11 11 25
310 Kennesaw State 65.9% -1.17 11 21
311 Western Michigan 65.9% -1.17 11 20
312 UIC 65.9% -1.18 11 22
313 Mississippi State 65.8% -1.19 10 33
314 Siena 65.8% -1.20 10 17
315 Illinois State 65.8% -1.20 10 24
316 Eastern Illinois 65.7% -1.22 9 27
317 Georgia Southern 65.7% -1.22 9 22
318 Cincinnati 65.6% -1.24 9 23
319 San José State 65.6% -1.25 9 19
320 Florida Gulf Coast 65.5% -1.26 8 16
321 Robert Morris 65.5% -1.26 8 18
322 Prairie View A&M 65.5% -1.26 8 21
323 South Carolina 65.4% -1.30 7 21
324 Florida A&M 65.2% -1.34 7 20
325 Duquesne 65.0% -1.37 7 18
326 San Diego 65.0% -1.39 7 14
327 USC 64.9% -1.41 6 33
328 Alabama State 64.7% -1.44 6 18
329 Butler 64.6% -1.47 6 25
330 George Mason 64.2% -1.56 5 22
331 Creighton 64.0% -1.61 5 31
332 Nebraska 63.9% -1.63 5 26
333 Rutgers 63.6% -1.70 5 28
334 Army 63.3% -1.77 4 21
335 South Florida 63.2% -1.81 4 21
336 UT Rio Grande Valley 63.0% -1.84 4 15
337 Utah Valley 63.0% -1.85 3 20
338 Alabama A&M 62.7% -1.92 3 15
339 Coppin State 62.2% -2.02 3 22
340 South Carolina State 62.1% -2.05 3 18
341 Memphis 61.7% -2.15 2 28
342 Northern Illinois 61.5% -2.19 2 19
343 UC San Diego 60.7% -2.37 2 14
344 UNC Asheville 60.6% -2.40 1 20
345 New Mexico 60.4% -2.45 1 20
346 Loyola Maryland 60.4% -2.45 1 17
347 Mississippi Valley State 57.2% -3.19 1 24
348 Maine 56.9% -3.26 0 9
349 Queens University 56.9% -3.27 0 3