We are not monsters, we're moral people / And yet we have the strength to do this. "Nemesis" - Shriekback

Does it predict winners?

Predicts home win: AUC 0.64 (team entering with the better value wins 60% of games)

See the game-by-game scatter on the Predictor page →

Team Distribution

Season-to-date value for every team, with a density curve.

min 35.6% max 54.9% mean 43.6% std 2.7% (n=349)

Team Rankings

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# Team Field Goal Percentage z Pctl GP
1 Gonzaga 54.9% +4.25 100 32
2 Stephen F. Austin 51.1% +2.83 100 18
3 Purdue Fort Wayne 50.1% +2.45 99 23
4 Illinois 50.0% +2.39 99 31
5 Weber State 49.6% +2.27 99 20
6 Bellarmine 49.4% +2.18 99 20
7 South Dakota State 49.4% +2.16 98 22
8 Colgate 49.3% +2.12 98 16
9 Loyola Chicago 49.1% +2.07 98 29
10 Belmont 48.9% +1.98 97 30
11 Campbell 48.8% +1.96 97 25
12 Baylor 48.6% +1.88 97 30
13 Furman 48.3% +1.75 97 22
14 Wright State 48.3% +1.75 96 24
15 Michigan 48.2% +1.74 96 28
16 BYU 47.8% +1.58 96 26
17 Liberty 47.8% +1.56 95 25
18 Dayton 47.7% +1.55 95 24
19 Georgia Tech 47.7% +1.54 95 26
20 Drake 47.7% +1.54 95 29
21 Ohio 47.7% +1.53 94 24
22 UNC Asheville 47.6% +1.49 94 20
23 Marshall 47.5% +1.45 94 22
24 Virginia 47.4% +1.44 93 25
25 Florida State 47.4% +1.44 93 25
26 New Orleans 47.4% +1.43 93 24
27 Missouri State 47.4% +1.43 93 22
28 Murray State 47.4% +1.42 92 24
29 Mercer 47.3% +1.37 92 26
30 USC 47.2% +1.33 92 33
31 Oregon 47.2% +1.33 91 28
32 Creighton 47.2% +1.33 91 31
33 Florida 47.1% +1.32 91 25
34 NC State 47.1% +1.31 91 25
35 Eastern Washington 47.1% +1.30 90 23
36 Iowa 47.1% +1.30 90 31
37 Utah 46.9% +1.25 90 25
38 North Texas 46.8% +1.22 89 27
39 Richmond 46.8% +1.21 89 22
40 Duke 46.8% +1.20 89 24
41 Utah Valley 46.8% +1.19 89 20
42 UC Santa Barbara 46.8% +1.19 88 25
43 Grand Canyon 46.8% +1.18 88 21
44 Drexel 46.7% +1.17 88 20
45 Davidson 46.6% +1.14 87 21
46 South Dakota 46.6% +1.13 87 24
47 Loyola Maryland 46.5% +1.08 87 17
48 Stanford 46.4% +1.05 86 27
49 Texas State 46.4% +1.05 86 23
50 Detroit Mercy 46.4% +1.03 86 22
51 McNeese 46.4% +1.03 86 18
52 Colorado State 46.3% +1.03 85 27
53 Vermont 46.3% +1.00 85 15
54 Saint Louis 46.2% +0.97 85 21
55 UCLA 46.1% +0.95 84 32
56 Morehead State 46.1% +0.94 84 29
57 Buffalo 46.1% +0.93 84 25
58 UC San Diego 46.0% +0.89 84 14
59 Siena 46.0% +0.89 83 17
60 California Baptist 45.9% +0.87 83 19
61 Notre Dame 45.9% +0.86 83 26
62 LSU 45.9% +0.85 82 29
63 Ohio State 45.9% +0.84 82 31
64 Oklahoma State 45.8% +0.84 82 30
65 Xavier 45.8% +0.84 82 21
66 Loyola Marymount 45.8% +0.81 81 22
67 Wofford 45.7% +0.80 81 22
68 Winthrop 45.7% +0.78 81 25
69 Bryant 45.7% +0.77 80 21
70 SMU 45.6% +0.77 80 17
71 Colorado 45.6% +0.75 80 32
72 Jacksonville State 45.6% +0.74 80 25
73 Toledo 45.6% +0.74 79 30
74 Maryland 45.5% +0.73 79 30
75 Bucknell 45.5% +0.72 79 12
76 Georgia 45.5% +0.72 78 25
77 Boise State 45.5% +0.70 78 27
78 Southern Utah 45.5% +0.69 78 19
79 VMI 45.4% +0.67 78 22
80 Mississippi State 45.4% +0.67 77 33
81 Texas 45.4% +0.67 77 27
82 Villanova 45.3% +0.65 77 25
83 Kansas City 45.3% +0.64 76 20
84 Pepperdine 45.3% +0.64 76 25
85 Georgia State 45.2% +0.60 76 20
86 Little Rock 45.2% +0.59 76 25
87 UMass Lowell 45.2% +0.58 75 23
88 Army 45.2% +0.58 75 21
89 Arkansas 45.1% +0.58 75 32
90 VCU 45.1% +0.57 74 26
91 Fairleigh Dickinson 45.0% +0.54 74 24
92 Nicholls 45.0% +0.53 74 24
93 Wyoming 45.0% +0.53 74 25
94 Virginia Tech 45.0% +0.52 73 22
95 Cleveland State 45.0% +0.52 73 27
96 Lipscomb 45.0% +0.51 73 23
97 San Diego State 44.9% +0.50 72 27
98 Western Carolina 44.9% +0.49 72 25
99 Radford 44.9% +0.49 72 25
100 Merrimack 44.9% +0.48 72 18
101 Western Kentucky 44.9% +0.47 71 29
102 Rutgers 44.9% +0.47 71 28
103 Sacramento State 44.8% +0.46 71 18
104 Prairie View A&M 44.8% +0.46 70 21
105 Purdue 44.7% +0.42 70 28
106 UAlbany 44.7% +0.42 70 16
107 Navy 44.7% +0.42 70 18
108 Arizona 44.7% +0.41 69 26
109 UC Riverside 44.7% +0.41 69 22
110 Abilene Christian 44.7% +0.40 69 25
111 St. John's 44.7% +0.40 68 27
112 Missouri 44.6% +0.38 68 26
113 Air Force 44.6% +0.38 68 25
114 St. Francis Brooklyn 44.6% +0.38 68 19
115 Northern Kentucky 44.5% +0.35 67 25
116 Marquette 44.5% +0.35 67 27
117 American University 44.5% +0.34 67 10
118 Long Beach State 44.5% +0.34 66 18
119 Southern Illinois 44.5% +0.33 66 25
120 Austin Peay 44.5% +0.32 66 25
121 Cal State Fullerton 44.5% +0.32 66 15
122 Gardner-Webb 44.4% +0.31 65 26
123 Holy Cross 44.4% +0.31 65 16
124 Louisiana 44.4% +0.30 65 24
125 Florida A&M 44.4% +0.30 64 20
126 Utah State 44.4% +0.29 64 28
127 The Citadel 44.4% +0.29 64 21
128 Memphis 44.4% +0.29 64 28
129 Montana State 44.4% +0.29 63 21
130 Hofstra 44.3% +0.27 63 23
131 UAB 44.3% +0.26 63 27
132 Oklahoma 44.3% +0.26 62 27
133 Ball State 44.3% +0.26 62 23
134 Nevada 44.3% +0.26 62 25
135 George Washington 44.3% +0.26 61 17
136 St. Bonaventure 44.3% +0.25 61 21
137 Robert Morris 44.3% +0.25 61 18
138 Oral Roberts 44.2% +0.24 61 26
139 Wagner 44.2% +0.23 60 20
140 Rhode Island 44.2% +0.23 60 25
141 Bradley 44.2% +0.23 60 26
142 North Dakota State 44.2% +0.22 59 27
143 Kent State 44.2% +0.22 59 22
144 Syracuse 44.2% +0.21 59 28
145 Old Dominion 44.2% +0.21 59 22
146 Iona 44.2% +0.21 58 18
147 Louisiana Tech 44.1% +0.20 58 31
148 Seton Hall 44.1% +0.20 58 27
149 Florida Atlantic 44.1% +0.19 57 19
150 Ole Miss 44.1% +0.19 57 28
151 Eastern Kentucky 44.1% +0.18 57 27
152 North Florida 44.0% +0.14 57 21
153 Charleston 44.0% +0.14 56 17
154 Evansville 44.0% +0.13 56 25
155 UMBC 43.9% +0.13 56 20
156 Texas Southern 43.9% +0.11 55 25
157 Texas Tech 43.9% +0.11 55 29
158 North Carolina 43.9% +0.10 55 29
159 Tennessee 43.9% +0.09 55 27
160 Rice 43.8% +0.09 54 25
161 Cal State Bakersfield 43.8% +0.09 54 24
162 Denver 43.8% +0.07 54 20
163 SIU Edwardsville 43.8% +0.07 53 25
164 Northeastern 43.8% +0.06 53 19
165 TCU 43.8% +0.06 53 26
166 Akron 43.8% +0.06 53 21
167 Northern Iowa 43.8% +0.06 52 23
168 Montana 43.7% +0.04 52 23
169 Illinois State 43.7% +0.03 52 24
170 Auburn 43.7% +0.02 51 27
171 Hawai'i 43.7% +0.02 51 19
172 Lafayette 43.6% +0.01 51 15
173 Milwaukee 43.6% +0.00 51 22
174 James Madison 43.6% -0.00 50 17
175 Boston University 43.6% -0.01 50 18
176 Pacific 43.6% -0.02 50 17
177 Eastern Illinois 43.6% -0.02 49 27
178 Central Michigan 43.6% -0.02 49 20
179 Green Bay 43.5% -0.03 49 25
180 Charlotte 43.5% -0.03 49 24
181 La Salle 43.5% -0.04 48 24
182 UNLV 43.5% -0.04 48 25
183 Alabama 43.5% -0.05 48 33
184 Miami (OH) 43.5% -0.05 47 22
185 Howard 43.5% -0.05 47 5
186 Longwood 43.4% -0.08 47 28
187 UConn 43.4% -0.09 47 23
188 UC Irvine 43.3% -0.11 46 25
189 Indiana 43.3% -0.11 46 27
190 Kansas 43.3% -0.11 46 29
191 Arizona State 43.3% -0.12 45 25
192 Chattanooga 43.3% -0.12 45 24
193 Delaware 43.3% -0.12 45 14
194 UTSA 43.3% -0.13 45 22
195 Tarleton State 43.3% -0.13 44 15
196 Tennessee Tech 43.2% -0.14 44 27
197 Northwestern 43.2% -0.15 44 23
198 Sam Houston 43.2% -0.15 43 24
199 Northern Colorado 43.2% -0.15 43 19
200 UC Davis 43.2% -0.15 43 17
201 Indiana State 43.2% -0.16 43 24
202 East Tennessee State 43.2% -0.16 42 23
203 Pittsburgh 43.2% -0.16 42 22
204 Southern 43.2% -0.16 42 19
205 Idaho 43.2% -0.17 41 22
206 Central Arkansas 43.2% -0.17 41 23
207 Louisville 43.1% -0.19 41 20
208 Hampton 43.1% -0.20 41 25
209 South Alabama 43.1% -0.20 40 24
210 Hartford 43.1% -0.20 40 24
211 Lehigh 43.1% -0.20 40 15
212 Youngstown State 43.1% -0.21 39 23
213 Northwestern State 43.0% -0.21 39 28
214 Tulsa 43.0% -0.21 39 21
215 Houston 43.0% -0.22 39 31
216 Western Michigan 43.0% -0.22 38 20
217 Vanderbilt 43.0% -0.23 38 25
218 Coastal Carolina 43.0% -0.23 38 22
219 Providence 43.0% -0.24 37 26
220 Grambling 42.9% -0.25 37 23
221 UCF 42.9% -0.25 37 23
222 Southeast Missouri State 42.9% -0.26 36 27
223 George Mason 42.9% -0.26 36 22
224 UIC 42.9% -0.27 36 22
225 West Virginia 42.9% -0.27 36 29
226 Santa Clara 42.9% -0.28 35 19
227 North Dakota 42.8% -0.29 35 26
228 Stetson 42.8% -0.29 35 24
229 Massachusetts 42.8% -0.29 34 15
230 Incarnate Word 42.8% -0.30 34 19
231 Rider 42.8% -0.31 34 23
232 San Francisco 42.8% -0.32 34 25
233 Oregon State 42.7% -0.33 33 32
234 Saint Francis 42.7% -0.33 33 22
235 Arkansas State 42.7% -0.34 33 21
236 California 42.7% -0.34 32 28
237 Marist 42.7% -0.35 32 21
238 Michigan State 42.6% -0.37 32 28
239 Jacksonville 42.6% -0.37 32 22
240 Southern Miss 42.6% -0.40 31 23
241 Clemson 42.5% -0.42 31 24
242 Wisconsin 42.5% -0.43 31 31
243 Mount St. Mary's 42.5% -0.43 30 23
244 Florida International 42.5% -0.43 30 22
245 Miami 42.5% -0.43 30 27
246 Central Connecticut 42.4% -0.44 30 21
247 UNC Wilmington 42.4% -0.44 29 16
248 Washington 42.4% -0.47 29 26
249 Georgetown 42.3% -0.48 29 26
250 Samford 42.3% -0.48 28 17
251 Fresno State 42.3% -0.48 28 22
252 IU Indianapolis 42.3% -0.50 28 18
253 Cincinnati 42.3% -0.50 28 23
254 Monmouth 42.3% -0.51 27 20
255 Saint Mary's 42.2% -0.52 27 24
256 South Carolina Upstate 42.2% -0.53 27 22
257 Northern Arizona 42.2% -0.53 26 22
258 Queens University 42.2% -0.53 26 3
259 Boston College 42.2% -0.54 26 20
260 Morgan State 42.2% -0.54 26 19
261 Duquesne 42.1% -0.56 25 18
262 Houston Christian 42.1% -0.56 25 24
263 UNC Greensboro 42.1% -0.58 25 30
264 Cal State Northridge 42.0% -0.59 24 21
265 Norfolk State 42.0% -0.60 24 23
266 Tennessee State 41.9% -0.63 24 22
267 Omaha 41.8% -0.67 24 25
268 Iowa State 41.8% -0.67 23 24
269 North Alabama 41.7% -0.71 23 20
270 DePaul 41.7% -0.72 23 19
271 Oakland 41.7% -0.73 22 30
272 Kentucky 41.7% -0.73 22 25
273 Lamar 41.7% -0.73 22 28
274 New Mexico State 41.6% -0.75 22 17
275 UL Monroe 41.6% -0.75 21 26
276 High Point 41.6% -0.77 21 24
277 San Diego 41.6% -0.77 21 14
278 UTEP 41.6% -0.77 20 21
279 Texas A&M 41.5% -0.79 20 18
280 Georgia Southern 41.5% -0.79 20 22
281 South Carolina 41.5% -0.79 20 21
282 Bowling Green 41.5% -0.80 19 25
283 Long Island University 41.5% -0.80 19 18
284 Binghamton 41.4% -0.83 19 18
285 Presbyterian 41.4% -0.84 18 21
286 Idaho State 41.3% -0.85 18 19
287 Florida Gulf Coast 41.3% -0.87 18 16
288 Valparaiso 41.2% -0.90 18 26
289 Sacred Heart 41.2% -0.90 17 18
290 Nebraska 41.2% -0.91 17 26
291 Towson 41.1% -0.93 17 18
292 Washington State 41.1% -0.93 16 27
293 Coppin State 41.1% -0.94 16 22
294 Butler 41.1% -0.96 16 25
295 Kansas State 41.1% -0.96 16 28
296 Elon 41.0% -0.97 15 18
297 William & Mary 40.9% -1.01 15 17
298 Eastern Michigan 40.9% -1.01 15 15
299 Wake Forest 40.9% -1.02 14 21
300 North Carolina Central 40.9% -1.02 14 13
301 Saint Joseph's 40.9% -1.03 14 20
302 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 40.8% -1.04 14 21
303 Canisius 40.8% -1.04 13 13
304 Penn State 40.8% -1.06 13 25
305 Niagara 40.8% -1.07 13 20
306 Stony Brook 40.7% -1.08 12 22
307 NJIT 40.4% -1.19 12 19
308 Utah Tech 40.4% -1.20 12 19
309 East Carolina 40.4% -1.22 11 18
310 Kennesaw State 40.3% -1.25 11 21
311 North Carolina A&T 40.3% -1.26 11 19
312 Wichita State 40.2% -1.29 11 20
313 Quinnipiac 40.1% -1.30 10 22
314 Temple 40.1% -1.32 10 16
315 Saint Peter's 40.0% -1.34 10 25
316 Alabama A&M 40.0% -1.36 9 15
317 Western Illinois 39.9% -1.39 9 21
318 New Mexico 39.9% -1.39 9 20
319 Northern Illinois 39.9% -1.39 9 19
320 App State 39.9% -1.40 8 25
321 Fairfield 39.8% -1.42 8 27
322 Seattle U 39.8% -1.42 8 19
323 Portland 39.8% -1.42 7 18
324 Charleston Southern 39.8% -1.44 7 20
325 South Florida 39.8% -1.45 7 21
326 UT Martin 39.7% -1.48 7 23
327 Jackson State 39.5% -1.53 6 18
328 New Hampshire 39.5% -1.53 6 18
329 SE Louisiana 39.5% -1.56 6 26
330 Alcorn State 39.3% -1.62 5 19
331 Minnesota 39.2% -1.64 5 29
332 UT Arlington 39.2% -1.67 5 23
333 Delaware State 39.1% -1.68 5 17
334 Middle Tennessee 38.9% -1.77 4 22
335 Troy 38.9% -1.78 4 25
336 South Carolina State 38.8% -1.80 4 18
337 Portland State 38.7% -1.83 3 18
338 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 38.6% -1.87 3 25
339 Cal Poly 38.6% -1.87 3 23
340 San José State 38.4% -1.95 3 19
341 Tulane 38.3% -1.99 2 23
342 Maine 38.1% -2.09 2 9
343 UT Rio Grande Valley 38.0% -2.10 2 15
344 Alabama State 38.0% -2.12 1 18
345 Manhattan 37.7% -2.23 1 20
346 Mercyhurst 37.1% -2.45 1 1
347 Chicago State 36.2% -2.78 1 9
348 Fordham 35.9% -2.90 0 14
349 Mississippi Valley State 35.6% -3.00 0 24