Just tell me where it hurts and I'll tell you who to call. "Quinn the Eskimo" - Bob Dylan

Does it predict winners?

Predicts home win: AUC 0.57 (team entering with the better value wins 56% of games)

See the game-by-game scatter on the Predictor page →

Team Distribution

Season-to-date value for every team, with a density curve.

min 25.1% max 41.3% mean 33.6% std 2.7% (n=349)

Team Rankings

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# Team Three-Point Percentage z Pctl GP
1 Baylor 41.3% +2.85 100 30
2 South Dakota State 40.9% +2.71 100 22
3 Colgate 40.3% +2.49 99 16
4 Purdue Fort Wayne 40.0% +2.37 99 23
5 California Baptist 39.5% +2.18 99 19
6 Texas State 39.4% +2.15 99 23
7 Detroit Mercy 39.1% +2.05 98 22
8 South Dakota 39.1% +2.04 98 24
9 Liberty 38.8% +1.91 98 25
10 Iowa 38.6% +1.85 97 31
11 Incarnate Word 38.3% +1.74 97 19
12 Charleston 38.2% +1.70 97 17
13 Michigan 38.1% +1.66 97 28
14 Cal State Fullerton 38.0% +1.62 96 15
15 American University 37.8% +1.56 96 10
16 Bryant 37.7% +1.53 96 21
17 Sacramento State 37.7% +1.52 95 18
18 Oregon 37.7% +1.51 95 28
19 Evansville 37.7% +1.51 95 25
20 Oral Roberts 37.7% +1.50 95 26
21 Florida State 37.6% +1.50 94 25
22 Fairleigh Dickinson 37.5% +1.45 94 24
23 Virginia 37.5% +1.43 94 25
24 Tarleton State 37.4% +1.42 93 15
25 Arkansas State 37.4% +1.42 93 21
26 Campbell 37.4% +1.42 93 25
27 Illinois 37.3% +1.38 93 31
28 Northern Colorado 37.3% +1.36 92 19
29 Toledo 37.2% +1.35 92 30
30 Southern Illinois 37.2% +1.35 92 25
31 Colorado 37.2% +1.34 91 32
32 Dayton 37.2% +1.34 91 24
33 UCLA 37.2% +1.33 91 32
34 North Texas 37.2% +1.33 91 27
35 Arizona 37.2% +1.33 90 26
36 Bellarmine 37.2% +1.32 90 20
37 Norfolk State 37.2% +1.32 90 23
38 McNeese 37.2% +1.32 89 18
39 UC Riverside 37.1% +1.29 89 22
40 Drexel 37.1% +1.29 89 20
41 VMI 37.0% +1.27 89 22
42 Wright State 37.0% +1.25 88 24
43 UC San Diego 37.0% +1.25 88 14
44 San Diego State 36.8% +1.19 88 27
45 Gonzaga 36.8% +1.19 87 32
46 Notre Dame 36.8% +1.17 87 26
47 BYU 36.7% +1.15 87 26
48 Montana 36.6% +1.12 86 23
49 Mercer 36.6% +1.12 86 26
50 Murray State 36.6% +1.11 86 24
51 Weber State 36.6% +1.10 86 20
52 Robert Morris 36.5% +1.09 85 18
53 Georgetown 36.5% +1.07 85 26
54 Wisconsin 36.4% +1.06 85 31
55 West Virginia 36.4% +1.05 84 29
56 Abilene Christian 36.4% +1.04 84 25
57 Drake 36.4% +1.02 84 29
58 Memphis 36.3% +1.01 84 28
59 Monmouth 36.3% +1.01 83 20
60 Miami (OH) 36.3% +0.99 83 22
61 North Florida 36.2% +0.96 83 21
62 Rice 36.1% +0.94 82 25
63 Creighton 36.1% +0.94 82 31
64 Gardner-Webb 36.1% +0.92 82 26
65 Lafayette 36.0% +0.90 82 15
66 USC 36.0% +0.90 81 33
67 Central Arkansas 36.0% +0.89 81 23
68 Ohio State 36.0% +0.89 81 31
69 Eastern Washington 36.0% +0.89 80 23
70 NC State 36.0% +0.89 80 25
71 Marshall 36.0% +0.88 80 22
72 Long Beach State 35.9% +0.84 80 18
73 Stetson 35.8% +0.81 79 24
74 Eastern Kentucky 35.8% +0.81 79 27
75 UNC Asheville 35.8% +0.81 79 20
76 Davidson 35.7% +0.79 78 21
77 Hawai'i 35.7% +0.79 78 19
78 Wyoming 35.7% +0.76 78 25
79 Ohio 35.6% +0.75 78 24
80 Texas 35.6% +0.73 77 27
81 Florida 35.6% +0.73 77 25
82 Wofford 35.6% +0.72 77 22
83 Utah 35.5% +0.72 76 25
84 Louisiana 35.5% +0.70 76 24
85 UCF 35.5% +0.70 76 23
86 Nevada 35.5% +0.69 76 25
87 Florida Atlantic 35.4% +0.68 75 19
88 Virginia Tech 35.4% +0.68 75 22
89 Chattanooga 35.4% +0.67 75 24
90 Loyola Chicago 35.4% +0.67 74 29
91 Texas Tech 35.4% +0.66 74 29
92 Northeastern 35.4% +0.66 74 19
93 Holy Cross 35.4% +0.65 74 16
94 Morehead State 35.3% +0.65 73 29
95 Villanova 35.3% +0.64 73 25
96 Maryland 35.3% +0.64 73 30
97 UT Arlington 35.3% +0.63 72 23
98 Rider 35.3% +0.62 72 23
99 Colorado State 35.2% +0.60 72 27
100 Southeast Missouri State 35.2% +0.60 72 27
101 Duke 35.2% +0.59 71 24
102 Alabama 35.2% +0.59 71 33
103 Winthrop 35.2% +0.58 71 25
104 Kansas City 35.1% +0.56 70 20
105 Oregon State 35.1% +0.55 70 32
106 South Alabama 35.1% +0.55 70 24
107 Wake Forest 35.1% +0.54 70 21
108 SMU 35.0% +0.53 69 17
109 Northern Arizona 35.0% +0.52 69 22
110 Missouri State 35.0% +0.51 69 22
111 Vanderbilt 34.9% +0.49 68 25
112 Syracuse 34.9% +0.48 68 28
113 East Tennessee State 34.9% +0.48 68 23
114 Boise State 34.9% +0.47 68 27
115 Houston 34.8% +0.46 67 31
116 Georgia Tech 34.8% +0.46 67 26
117 Furman 34.8% +0.45 67 22
118 Richmond 34.8% +0.45 66 22
119 Denver 34.8% +0.44 66 20
120 Queens University 34.8% +0.44 66 3
121 Saint Louis 34.8% +0.43 66 21
122 Sam Houston 34.8% +0.43 65 24
123 LSU 34.7% +0.41 65 29
124 Utah Valley 34.7% +0.40 65 20
125 Northwestern State 34.7% +0.39 64 28
126 Iona 34.6% +0.39 64 18
127 UMass Lowell 34.6% +0.38 64 23
128 Northwestern 34.6% +0.38 64 23
129 Jacksonville State 34.6% +0.37 63 25
130 Longwood 34.6% +0.35 63 28
131 Western Kentucky 34.5% +0.34 63 29
132 Clemson 34.5% +0.33 62 24
133 Georgia State 34.5% +0.33 62 20
134 St. John's 34.5% +0.33 62 27
135 UNLV 34.5% +0.31 61 25
136 Louisiana Tech 34.4% +0.31 61 31
137 Belmont 34.4% +0.31 61 30
138 Vermont 34.4% +0.30 61 15
139 Siena 34.4% +0.29 60 17
140 IU Indianapolis 34.4% +0.29 60 18
141 St. Bonaventure 34.4% +0.28 60 21
142 UC Santa Barbara 34.3% +0.27 59 25
143 Coastal Carolina 34.3% +0.25 59 22
144 Mississippi State 34.3% +0.25 59 33
145 Temple 34.2% +0.23 59 16
146 Ball State 34.2% +0.22 58 23
147 San Francisco 34.1% +0.19 58 25
148 Washington State 34.1% +0.18 58 27
149 Oklahoma 34.1% +0.18 57 27
150 Idaho 34.1% +0.18 57 22
151 North Dakota State 34.1% +0.17 57 27
152 Lipscomb 34.1% +0.17 57 23
153 UMBC 34.1% +0.17 56 20
154 UNC Wilmington 34.0% +0.15 56 16
155 Jackson State 34.0% +0.15 56 18
156 Illinois State 34.0% +0.15 55 24
157 UL Monroe 34.0% +0.14 55 26
158 South Carolina Upstate 34.0% +0.13 55 22
159 New Orleans 33.9% +0.11 55 24
160 Indiana State 33.9% +0.10 54 24
161 Wichita State 33.8% +0.08 54 20
162 Pittsburgh 33.8% +0.07 54 22
163 Penn State 33.8% +0.07 53 25
164 Buffalo 33.8% +0.07 53 25
165 TCU 33.8% +0.07 53 26
166 Cal State Bakersfield 33.8% +0.06 53 24
167 Portland 33.8% +0.06 52 18
168 Loyola Marymount 33.8% +0.05 52 22
169 North Dakota 33.7% +0.03 52 26
170 UAlbany 33.7% +0.02 51 16
171 La Salle 33.6% +0.01 51 24
172 Kansas 33.6% -0.00 51 29
173 Kentucky 33.5% -0.02 51 25
174 Omaha 33.5% -0.04 50 25
175 UConn 33.5% -0.05 50 23
176 Cal State Northridge 33.5% -0.05 50 21
177 Kent State 33.5% -0.06 49 22
178 Mount St. Mary's 33.4% -0.07 49 23
179 Southern Utah 33.4% -0.07 49 19
180 Akron 33.4% -0.08 49 21
181 Arizona State 33.3% -0.10 48 25
182 Grambling 33.3% -0.10 48 23
183 Houston Christian 33.3% -0.10 48 24
184 James Madison 33.3% -0.10 47 17
185 Purdue 33.3% -0.10 47 28
186 Western Carolina 33.3% -0.10 47 25
187 Oakland 33.3% -0.12 47 30
188 Austin Peay 33.3% -0.12 46 25
189 Green Bay 33.3% -0.13 46 25
190 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 33.3% -0.13 46 21
191 Washington 33.2% -0.14 45 26
192 Hampton 33.2% -0.15 45 25
193 Utah State 33.2% -0.15 45 28
194 UT Martin 33.2% -0.15 45 23
195 Arkansas 33.2% -0.15 44 32
196 Elon 33.2% -0.16 44 18
197 Nebraska 33.2% -0.16 44 26
198 Western Michigan 33.2% -0.16 43 20
199 Oklahoma State 33.2% -0.17 43 30
200 St. Francis Brooklyn 33.1% -0.17 43 19
201 North Carolina Central 33.1% -0.20 43 13
202 UTSA 33.1% -0.20 42 22
203 Binghamton 33.1% -0.21 42 18
204 Tennessee 33.0% -0.22 42 27
205 Air Force 33.0% -0.22 41 25
206 Hofstra 33.0% -0.22 41 23
207 Boston College 33.0% -0.24 41 20
208 North Alabama 33.0% -0.24 41 20
209 Bucknell 33.0% -0.24 40 12
210 Sacred Heart 32.9% -0.24 40 18
211 VCU 32.9% -0.25 40 26
212 Morgan State 32.9% -0.26 39 19
213 Pepperdine 32.9% -0.26 39 25
214 California 32.9% -0.27 39 28
215 Mississippi Valley State 32.9% -0.27 39 24
216 UC Irvine 32.9% -0.27 38 25
217 George Mason 32.9% -0.28 38 22
218 Milwaukee 32.9% -0.28 38 22
219 The Citadel 32.8% -0.29 37 21
220 UTEP 32.8% -0.30 37 21
221 UIC 32.7% -0.33 37 22
222 Florida International 32.7% -0.33 36 22
223 Charlotte 32.7% -0.34 36 24
224 Navy 32.6% -0.36 36 18
225 Auburn 32.6% -0.36 36 27
226 Fresno State 32.6% -0.37 35 22
227 Massachusetts 32.6% -0.38 35 15
228 Middle Tennessee 32.5% -0.40 35 22
229 Xavier 32.5% -0.40 34 21
230 Missouri 32.5% -0.43 34 26
231 South Florida 32.4% -0.44 34 21
232 Eastern Illinois 32.4% -0.45 34 27
233 Northern Illinois 32.4% -0.45 33 19
234 Central Connecticut 32.4% -0.45 33 21
235 George Washington 32.4% -0.45 33 17
236 Indiana 32.4% -0.46 32 27
237 Quinnipiac 32.4% -0.46 32 22
238 Georgia 32.3% -0.48 32 25
239 Butler 32.3% -0.48 32 25
240 Southern 32.3% -0.49 31 19
241 Saint Peter's 32.3% -0.49 31 25
242 Marquette 32.3% -0.50 31 27
243 Hartford 32.3% -0.50 30 24
244 Army 32.3% -0.50 30 21
245 Northern Iowa 32.2% -0.51 30 23
246 Stephen F. Austin 32.2% -0.52 30 18
247 Central Michigan 32.2% -0.52 29 20
248 Stanford 32.2% -0.54 29 27
249 Cleveland State 32.1% -0.54 29 27
250 Tennessee Tech 32.1% -0.56 28 27
251 Seton Hall 32.1% -0.56 28 27
252 Michigan State 32.1% -0.57 28 28
253 Iowa State 32.1% -0.58 28 24
254 Montana State 32.0% -0.59 27 21
255 Providence 32.0% -0.61 27 26
256 New Mexico State 31.9% -0.62 27 17
257 UC Davis 31.9% -0.64 26 17
258 Nicholls 31.8% -0.65 26 24
259 Grand Canyon 31.8% -0.66 26 21
260 North Carolina 31.8% -0.66 26 29
261 Boston University 31.8% -0.67 25 18
262 Wagner 31.8% -0.67 25 20
263 Western Illinois 31.8% -0.67 25 21
264 Seattle U 31.8% -0.68 24 19
265 New Hampshire 31.8% -0.68 24 18
266 App State 31.7% -0.70 24 25
267 Alabama State 31.7% -0.70 24 18
268 South Carolina State 31.7% -0.71 23 18
269 Merrimack 31.7% -0.72 23 18
270 Bowling Green 31.6% -0.74 23 25
271 Lehigh 31.6% -0.74 22 15
272 San José State 31.6% -0.75 22 19
273 Cal Poly 31.5% -0.77 22 23
274 Fairfield 31.5% -0.77 22 27
275 Maine 31.5% -0.77 21 9
276 DePaul 31.5% -0.78 21 19
277 Southern Miss 31.5% -0.78 21 23
278 Bradley 31.4% -0.82 20 26
279 Delaware 31.4% -0.83 20 14
280 Saint Joseph's 31.4% -0.83 20 20
281 Jacksonville 31.4% -0.84 20 22
282 Florida A&M 31.4% -0.84 19 20
283 Niagara 31.3% -0.86 19 20
284 Lamar 31.2% -0.88 19 28
285 Rhode Island 31.2% -0.88 18 25
286 Rutgers 31.2% -0.89 18 28
287 SIU Edwardsville 31.2% -0.89 18 25
288 Little Rock 31.2% -0.90 18 25
289 Cincinnati 31.1% -0.93 17 23
290 Delaware State 31.1% -0.94 17 17
291 UAB 31.1% -0.94 17 27
292 Charleston Southern 31.1% -0.94 16 20
293 Marist 31.0% -0.97 16 21
294 Georgia Southern 30.9% -0.99 16 22
295 Saint Francis 30.9% -0.99 16 22
296 Youngstown State 30.9% -0.99 15 23
297 Radford 30.9% -1.00 15 25
298 Howard 30.9% -1.01 15 5
299 Louisville 30.8% -1.03 14 20
300 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 30.8% -1.06 14 25
301 Northern Kentucky 30.7% -1.10 14 25
302 Loyola Maryland 30.6% -1.13 14 17
303 Eastern Michigan 30.6% -1.13 13 15
304 NJIT 30.5% -1.15 13 19
305 South Carolina 30.5% -1.16 13 21
306 Mercyhurst 30.4% -1.18 12 1
307 Prairie View A&M 30.4% -1.18 12 21
308 San Diego 30.4% -1.20 12 14
309 Coppin State 30.3% -1.21 11 22
310 Presbyterian 30.3% -1.23 11 21
311 Idaho State 30.2% -1.26 11 19
312 Alcorn State 30.1% -1.32 11 19
313 Ole Miss 30.0% -1.32 10 28
314 Tulsa 30.0% -1.35 10 21
315 Kansas State 30.0% -1.35 10 28
316 North Carolina A&T 29.9% -1.36 9 19
317 Texas A&M 29.9% -1.37 9 18
318 Santa Clara 29.9% -1.37 9 19
319 UNC Greensboro 29.9% -1.38 9 30
320 Duquesne 29.9% -1.39 8 18
321 Tulane 29.8% -1.42 8 23
322 East Carolina 29.8% -1.43 8 18
323 Valparaiso 29.7% -1.43 7 26
324 Pacific 29.7% -1.45 7 17
325 Utah Tech 29.7% -1.46 7 19
326 Canisius 29.7% -1.46 7 13
327 Miami 29.5% -1.51 6 27
328 Kennesaw State 29.4% -1.55 6 21
329 Saint Mary's 29.4% -1.55 6 24
330 Old Dominion 29.4% -1.57 5 22
331 Portland State 29.2% -1.64 5 18
332 Stony Brook 29.2% -1.65 5 22
333 SE Louisiana 29.2% -1.65 5 26
334 High Point 29.0% -1.69 4 24
335 Alabama A&M 29.0% -1.70 4 15
336 Towson 28.9% -1.73 4 18
337 Florida Gulf Coast 28.9% -1.73 3 16
338 Tennessee State 28.8% -1.77 3 22
339 Long Island University 28.7% -1.82 3 18
340 William & Mary 28.7% -1.84 3 17
341 Minnesota 28.4% -1.95 2 29
342 Samford 28.3% -1.96 2 17
343 Troy 28.1% -2.06 2 25
344 Texas Southern 27.9% -2.13 1 25
345 Fordham 26.9% -2.50 1 14
346 New Mexico 26.8% -2.53 1 20
347 UT Rio Grande Valley 26.7% -2.55 1 15
348 Manhattan 26.4% -2.66 0 20
349 Chicago State 25.1% -3.15 0 9