Betting Lines
| Spread | FDU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | FDU -118 LEM -102 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FDU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LEM +13 | 161 | Lost |
| Massey | LEM -2.1 (-10.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.4 (+15.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 37% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 40% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LEM -2.0 (-11.0) | 137.0 (+24.0) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LEM -2.8 (-10.2) | 134.7 (+26.3) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LEM -2.4 (-10.6) | 135.0 (+26.0) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LEM -2.5 (-10.5) | 135.2 (+25.8) | 37% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | LEM 76 – 59 FDU |
| Jan 31, 2025 | FDU 78 – 74 LEM |
| Jan 11, 2025 | FDU 91 – 86 LEM |
| Mar 7, 2024 | LEM 82 – 61 FDU |
| Feb 24, 2024 | FDU 68 – 58 LEM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FDU | LEM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 10-8 |
| Home | 8-6 | 9-4 |
| Away | 3-15 | 5-12 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L4 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.1 | 72.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 73.9 |
| Massey | -11.6 (#328) | -6.3 (#263) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.33 (#343) | -1.25 (#278) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.87 (#340) | -1.83 (#289) |
| RPI | 0.393 (#344) | 0.439 (#279) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FDU | LEM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.4% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.1% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 28.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.2% | 28.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.2% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 67.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.5% | 24.0% |
Game Analysis
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