Betting Lines
| Spread | TA&M -26.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | TA&M -8000 JAX +2200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TA&M win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TA&M +37 | 187 | Won |
| Massey | TA&M -21.0 (+16.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.9 (+31.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TA&M -20.2 (+16.8) | 146.8 (+40.2) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TA&M -18.9 (+18.1) | 148.9 (+38.1) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TA&M -21.4 (+15.6) | 150.2 (+36.8) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TA&M -20.8 (+16.2) | 148.7 (+38.3) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TA&M | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 7-11 |
| Home | 14-4 | 8-4 |
| Away | 6-5 | 3-14 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 86.1 | 69.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.9 | 75.2 |
| Massey | 9.0 (#72) | -7.5 (#289) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.30 (#83) | -0.13 (#190) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.74 (#83) | -0.56 (#208) |
| RPI | 0.521 (#134) | 0.492 (#191) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TA&M | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.70 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.7% | 48.2% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 20.4% |
| ORB% | 34.7% | 31.3% |
| FT Rate | 34.5% | 18.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.3% | 56.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.7% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 32.5% |
Game Analysis
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