Betting Lines
| Spread | UIC -16.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 163.5 Under |
| Money | UIC -1650 UAPB +950 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UIC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UAPB +1 | 125 | Lost |
| Massey | UIC -19.8 (-20.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.4 (-39.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UIC -16.0 (-17.0) | 153.5 (-28.5) | 89% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UIC -15.7 (-16.7) | 153.4 (-28.4) | 88% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UIC -15.7 (-16.7) | 152.4 (-27.4) | 88% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UIC -17.0 (-18.0) | 155.1 (-30.1) | 89% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UIC | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-16 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 10-8 |
| Home | 9-5 | 7-4 |
| Away | 7-9 | 6-14 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 81.9 |
| Massey | -1.4 (#189) | -15.9 (#357) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.54 (#223) | -1.60 (#304) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.79 (#225) | -2.22 (#296) |
| RPI | 0.443 (#272) | 0.490 (#194) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UIC | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 37.3% |
| 3PT% | 29.2% | 27.9% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 13.7 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 42.6% |
| TOV% | 20.7% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 39.8% | 27.5% |
| FT Rate | 39.7% | 24.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 59.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 14.2% |
| DRB% | 60.0% | 63.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.7% | 33.7% |
Game Analysis
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