Betting Lines
| Spread | MIZ -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | ND -110 MIZ -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ND +5 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | ND -0.3 (+4.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.8 (-5.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ND -0.4 (+4.6) | 138.4 (+8.6) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ND -1.1 (+3.9) | 142.7 (+4.3) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ND -1.2 (+3.8) | 143.3 (+3.7) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ND -1.6 (+3.4) | 142.2 (+4.8) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ND | MIZ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-18 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 10-8 |
| Home | 10-7 | 15-3 |
| Away | 2-9 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.5 | 79.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.3 | 75.5 |
| Massey | 6.4 (#88) | 11.4 (#48) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.85 (#118) | 1.80 (#51) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.51 (#94) | 2.56 (#61) |
| RPI | 0.551 (#102) | 0.522 (#145) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ND | MIZ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 55.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 39.1% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 41.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 13.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 62.6% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 34.7% | 42.7% |
| FT Rate | 26.0% | 29.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 46.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.8% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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