Betting Lines
| Spread | MISS -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | MISS -130 MIA +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MISS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIA +9 | 141 | Lost |
| Massey | MIA -4.0 (-5.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.4 (-11.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MISS -1.8 (-10.8) | 144.8 (-3.8) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIA -0.8 (-8.2) | 144.4 (-3.4) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MIA -1.1 (-7.9) | 145.0 (-4.0) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MISS -0.4 (-9.4) | 146.0 (-5.0) | 55% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MISS | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-20 | 26-9 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 13-5 |
| Home | 7-9 | 15-3 |
| Away | 3-7 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.9 | 81.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.1 | 71.3 |
| Massey | 6.3 (#89) | 15.5 (#22) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.32 (#162) | 1.42 (#75) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.25 (#109) | 2.27 (#69) |
| RPI | 0.519 (#150) | 0.534 (#128) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MISS | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.3% | 51.5% |
| 3PT% | 36.6% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 40.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.58 | 1.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 56.9% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 34.6% | 35.1% |
| FT Rate | 29.7% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 45.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 20.8% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 22.1% |
Game Analysis
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